Zorba
Lifer
- Oct 22, 1999
- 15,613
- 11,256
- 136
Ya know, even the National Enquirer occasionally gets it right. If you wish to debunk an article, it's better to debunk the article, not the wrapper it came in.
Here you go:
Number 1: "Travel bans in the wake of HIV/AIDS didn't stop the spread of the disease"
Travel ban to US was started in 1987, 18 years after HIV entered the US. As in way too late. Also it wasn't a ban on all people from affected countries, only on people with the disease. Considering HIV takes 6 months to show up, and they never did blood tests at customs, of course it was not effective.
Number 2: "Flight bans post-9/11 did not prevent a deadly and prolonged flu season"
First, there was no long term, targeted ban on flights. So the results, while interesting, are not representative of a full, specific, targeted ban of travel to certain infected locations. The also could not account for increased car travel, while air travel was done.
Second, Vox COMPLETELY misrepresents the findings. This is from the linked article's discussion section:
The alarming spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) in both wild and domestic poultry in Southeast Asia and Europe [32,33], with probable human-to-human transmission [34,35], has intensified the debate over whether border control and travel restrictions could substantially impede the spatial spread of an emerging pandemic strain. Our results suggest that limiting domestic airline volume would have a measurable impact on the rate of spread of an influenza pandemic, and particularly on spread across regions. Because influenza pandemics have shown unusual spatial and demographic patterns as well as higher basic reproductive number due to lack of immunity, the relationship between air travel volume and domestic influenza spread may nonetheless be different in a pandemic scenario [36,37]. However, our finding that international travel influences the timing of epidemic influenza should apply directly to a pandemic scenario, where the objective will be to reduce the probability of strain introduction.
This is from the abstract (for skimmers):
Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline travel restrictions on influenza spread.
So right there, Vox looses all credibility. Might as well get your news and indepth reporting from crack.com or buzzfeed.
Number 3: "Travel restrictions didn't cut bird flu infections"
First, the title doesn't match the journal article at all. The article did simulations of a break out within the US, assuming bird flu had evolved to spread human to human. As in NOT EMPIRICAL.
Second, again VOX completely misrepresents the article.
If the nascent pandemic is not contained by timely intervention at its source (3, 4), international travel could carry pandemic viruses around the globe within weeks to months of the initiation of the outbreak, causing a worldwide public health emergency.
and
To model the introduction of pandemic influenza into the U.S., we assume that impenetrable borders are either prohibitively expensive or impossible to create, and that international air travel is the dominant mode of influenza introduction from outside the U.S. Consequently, a small random number of incubating individuals, equivalent to 0.04% of arriving international passengers, is introduced each day at each of 14 major international airports in the continental U.S. (see Table 6, which is published as supporting information on the PNAS web site). The simulation covers 180 days, roughly the length of a U.S. influenza season. We assume that, because of the uncertainty in diagnosis of influenza infections and the sporadic nature of the early stages of an outbreak, a cumulative number of 10,000 symptomatic individuals nationwide is required to trigger a nationwide pandemic alert (see Supporting Text for a sensitivity analysis of various response delays, for selected intervention strategies).
Now the quote they used in the article (from the abstract, mind you, so I doubt Vox got past that page). Note the bold part, that is travel restriction within the US after an outbreak is detected within the US. We are talking about travel bans BEFORE the virus gets to the US, in a targeted, manner that is cost effective and easy to do.
Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill.
I don't have time to research the other two examples right now, but considering the amount of BS in the first three, I don't have high hopes for next two. So my take away, is if it Fox or Vox it is bullshit.
Edit: It is really funny to me that people saying "Don't attack the source" are the same people that would be the first to identify a right-wing rag website.
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