Tesla is not dead yet!!!

mrrman

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2004
8,497
3
0
Tesla reveals $5 billion Gigafactory, the world's largest battery plant

No automaker has quite the momentum that Tesla Motors enjoys today. It sells every car it builds easily, with customers queuing around the globe. It's considered the best car for sale in America by several critics, and Wall Street has bought into Elon Musk's vision with a fervor rarely seen outside riverside baptisms. And yet everything Tesla stands for today and wants to accomplish in the future rides on a single stubborn, expensive piece of technology — the battery.

Today, Tesla revealed its grand plan for tackling that weak spot, a $5 billion plan to build the world's largest battery plant, dubbed the Gigafactory — one that would power the company from start-up to an auto industry player with 500,000 vehicle sales a year.

Even with all the attention it's received to date, Elon Musk's firm remains a small timer as far asglobal automaking goes. Tesla plans to build 35,000 Model S sedans from its California factory this year; Ford typically builds that many F-Series pickups in about 20 days. All of those cars will rely on lithium-ion battery cells shipped from Asia, where Panasonic and other suppliers control most of the world's supply. While researchers have spent decades hunting for better ways of storing electrical energy, none has emerged as an alternative — and at the moment, there's no technology on the horizon that's better or cheaper.

he price of those cells has been the major reason the Tesla Model S and all other electric cars cost far more than gasoline-powered ones. A few automakers have built their own battery plants in the hopes of driving down costs and ensuring supplies, with Nissan's $300 million Tennessee plant the largest in the United States to date. But none have been built to the scale Tesla would need to supply hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year; the company already uses a third of all electric vehicle battery production.
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In its outline, Tesla says by the time the plant goes online in 2017, the plant to lower its battery costs by 30 percent — which coincides with its plan to launch a third "affordable" all-electric model for roughly $45,000. Three years later, Tesla expects the Gigafactory would produce enough batteries for Tesla to bolt into 500,000 vehicles a year, more lithium-ion battery power than the rest of the world built last year.

The cost for doing so: roughly $5 billion, with Tesla providing up to $2 billion and current battery supplier Panasonic and other partners providing the rest. Tesla says it has narrowed the potential sites for the plant and its 6,500 jobs to four states: Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. The company also said today it would raise $1.6 billion to help pay for the plant and developing new models.

When Tesla launched, many executives and critics questioned whether it could ever survive building expensive vehicles limited by battery range and recharging times. If Tesla can open its Gigafactory as planned, and meet the goals it's set, those critics will finally have their answer.

http://ca.autos.yahoo.com/blogs/mot...-world-s-largest-battery-plant-223554561.html
 

Vdubchaos

Lifer
Nov 11, 2009
10,408
10
0
I still think Electric cars will be a failure just like they were almost 2 centuries ago....and again a century ago.....

But I hope I'm wrong....
 

z1ggy

Lifer
May 17, 2008
10,010
66
91
I still think Electric cars will be a failure just like they were almost 2 centuries ago....and again a century ago.....

But I hope I'm wrong....

Oil is going to run out someday.

I don't see us making wind power [cars], nuke power, solar power, or any else else right now...

Make cheaper batteries with a method to recharge them quickly and safely, and you have a winner.
 

brainhulk

Diamond Member
Sep 14, 2007
9,376
454
126
Electric cars are cool except that lithium batteries have a tendency to explode into a ball of flames exceeding 1000 deg celcius
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
70,618
13,818
126
www.anyf.ca
There's tons of research that goes into oil. That money needs to be put into batteries. I'm sure with enough R&D better battery tech can come out.

The danger is if someone patents it though, then it wont be able to become mainstream, and I find that's the biggest problem to progress these days. There's always 1 company that has to patent something and it stops everyone else from being able to use it, and prevents open standards from being formed.

Tesla is probably the ones that are the most advanced when it comes to electric cars and they have stations throughout most of the US. Hopefully they will make their tech open so other companies can use the same kind of connectors/plugs/batteries etc... and their stations could become a standard. That might be dreaming though.

Also to get an electric car you have to buy new, whether it's gas or electric I just can't justify buying new when a used car will serve the same purpose at 1/10th of the price or even less. By the time an electric car becomes "used" the batteries will be no good and it will cost more than the car to replace them. The biggest thing that needs to happen is either batteries that last forever, or batteries that are extremely cheap and easy to produce. Hydrogen fuel cells are nice as you can practically make out out of paper and tin plates, but not sure what the energy density is like.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,547
1,127
126
There's tons of research that goes into oil. That money needs to be put into batteries. I'm sure with enough R&D better battery tech can come out.

The danger is if someone patents it though, then it wont be able to become mainstream, and I find that's the biggest problem to progress these days. There's always 1 company that has to patent something and it stops everyone else from being able to use it, and prevents open standards from being formed.

Tesla is probably the ones that are the most advanced when it comes to electric cars and they have stations throughout most of the US. Hopefully they will make their tech open so other companies can use the same kind of connectors/plugs/batteries etc... and their stations could become a standard. That might be dreaming though.

Also to get an electric car you have to buy new, whether it's gas or electric I just can't justify buying new when a used car will serve the same purpose at 1/10th of the price or even less. By the time an electric car becomes "used" the batteries will be no good and it will cost more than the car to replace them. The biggest thing that needs to happen is either batteries that last forever, or batteries that are extremely cheap and easy to produce. Hydrogen fuel cells are nice as you can practically make out out of paper and tin plates, but not sure what the energy density is like.

Umm. Yeah uh, when did used car become synonymous for 10+ year old clunker? You can buy a late model Tesla. I've seen used ones on the market. They are scarce because there is not enough volume. That will likely change if Tesla comes out with their $35k electric car in 2017 like they plan.

The Tesla has an 8 year unlimited mile warranty on its 85kwh battery. After 8 years if you needed to you could buy a battery for $12k. How long the battery lasts depends on how many cycles. Life and cost of replacement will ONLY improve as time goes on.
 

manimal

Lifer
Mar 30, 2007
13,559
8
0
Economy of scale also teaches us that the battery replacements will get cheaper by the time you need them. Compared to 10 years ago prices have come down considerably. The next ten years we should see a similar trend even without a black swan entering the industry.
 

Fritzo

Lifer
Jan 3, 2001
41,920
2,161
126
I still think Electric cars will be a failure just like they were almost 2 centuries ago....and again a century ago.....

But I hope I'm wrong....

o_O

I just read where nearly every new car will be some type of hybrid by 2020. Full electric is the next step. We already have the battery capacity technology- we just need to improve charging technology.
 

gorcorps

aka Brandon
Jul 18, 2004
30,741
456
126
Electric cars are cool except that lithium batteries have a tendency to explode into a ball of flames exceeding 1000 deg celcius

I know, right?

normal cars run on completely non-flammable fluids and never catch fire
 

Vdubchaos

Lifer
Nov 11, 2009
10,408
10
0
o_O

I just read where nearly every new car will be some type of hybrid by 2020. Full electric is the next step. We already have the battery capacity technology- we just need to improve charging technology.

That sucks, I guess I will be buying a car before 2020....do NOT want Electric
 

ViRGE

Elite Member, Moderator Emeritus
Oct 9, 1999
31,516
167
106
Oil is going to run out someday.

I don't see us making wind power [cars], nuke power, solar power, or any else else right now...
We'll just make more oil. If you have another source of energy, then making another hydrocarbon out of CO2 and some other materials is chemically viable. It's just not energy efficient.

Right now we don't have anything that can match the energy density of oil in vehicle-like volumes.
 

Vdubchaos

Lifer
Nov 11, 2009
10,408
10
0
Oil is going to run out someday.

And life on earth will end someday too. Your point?

I don't see us making wind power [cars], nuke power, solar power, or any else else right now...

Electric cars don't really address any Energy/pollution issues anyways.

Remember, cars are NOT the biggest pollutants on this planet. Cargo ships are. 9-10 cargo ships produce as much pollution as ENTIRE world of cars.

Make cheaper batteries with a method to recharge them quickly and safely, and you have a winner.

I don't see that happening (recharging quickly part).

The biggest problem with Electric cars is range and unpredictable condition/planning prior to trips.

Nissan Leaf currently has 50000BTUs of power. That's equivalent to about 1/2 gallon of gas....and people wonder why they get stuck after 30-40 miles.

Traffic you say? You are screwed.

I'm sorry but Electric cars = hype

From a hybrid perspective, they add way too much weight and complexity on top of already complex design.

I will pass....

Internal combustion engines are here to stay....

We'll just make more oil. If you have another source of energy, then making another hydrocarbon out of CO2 and some other materials is chemically viable. It's just not energy efficient.

Right now we don't have anything that can match the energy density of oil in vehicle-like volumes.

Correct, besides Oil is needed to make TONS of stuff. No OIl = no tires, so your electric cars will be worthless anyways. No Oil, no plastics....and on and on we go.

When we run out of oil,expect world population to go down significantly. BILLIONS of people owe their life to oil!!!

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/chefurka/chefurka01.gif

Electric cars will not do much to fix the energy issues humans will face....some day....maybe
 
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luv2liv

Diamond Member
Dec 27, 2001
3,502
94
91
Tesla Model S has got to be the first car in the history of automobile where its MSRP actually goes down as time passes! im impressed how a $60,000 car now will be retailed for $35,000 3 years from now.
im hoping my 1997 camry wont be dead till 2017. thats for sure
 

Vdubchaos

Lifer
Nov 11, 2009
10,408
10
0
Tesla Model S has got to be the first car in the history of automobile where its MSRP actually goes down as time passes! im impressed how a $60,000 car now will be retailed for $35,000 3 years from now.
im hoping my 1997 camry wont be dead till 2017. thats for sure

THat is completely wrong.

ANY new technology goes down in price when the tech develops.

From Smartphones....LCD monitor and that applied to cars MANY years back as well.

Keep in mind the current car technology is CENTURIES old. There was a time when it was unobtainable.......but as the technology improved and more people acquired it, it went mainstream.

Plasma TV is a good recent example.....

I still don't think Electric car will get to that point.....
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
THat is completely wrong.

ANY new technology goes down in price when the tech develops.

From Smartphones....LCD monitor and that applied to cars MANY years back as well.

Keep in mind the current car technology is CENTURIES old.
There was a time when it was unobtainable.......but as the technology improved and more people acquired it, it went mainstream.

Plasma TV is a good recent example.....

I still don't think Electric car will get to that point.....

:biggrin:

And we already have a Tesla thread. Tesla is going nowhere contrary to what some idiots think.

Oh, the stock is at an all time high. Yep, dead.
 
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RelaxTheMind

Platinum Member
Oct 15, 2002
2,245
0
76
the good thing for all electronics in general is there is a big chunk of research at all levels going into battery/charging technology. advances in even cell phones battery tech can technically scale up to electric car production.

wonder if amount of pedestrians hit will go up as well like when electric buses started rolling out.
 

videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
6,783
27
91
Why? You hate more torque, less maintenance due to fewer moving parts, and better efficiency or something?

Unpredictable range and slow recharge for long trips, how do I drive from NH to IN non-stop in any foreseeable electric car?

Batteries have a long way to go before replacing internal combustion for the vast majority of consumers.
 

akahoovy

Golden Member
May 1, 2011
1,336
1
0
Unpredictable range and slow recharge for long trips, how do I drive from NH to IN non-stop in any foreseeable electric car?

Batteries have a long way to go before replacing internal combustion for the vast majority of consumers.

I could see a lot of use for people who are city dwellers. Most likely if I were an electric car owner and living where I do, I would rent an internal-combustion engine car for road trips instead of owning one.
 

Fritzo

Lifer
Jan 3, 2001
41,920
2,161
126
Unpredictable range and slow recharge for long trips, how do I drive from NH to IN non-stop in any foreseeable electric car?

Batteries have a long way to go before replacing internal combustion for the vast majority of consumers.

We were talking hybrids there. They're an excellent stop gap solution and actually add performance and benefits to the car.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
Unpredictable range and slow recharge for long trips, how do I drive from NH to IN non-stop in any foreseeable electric car?

Batteries have a long way to go before replacing internal combustion for the vast majority of consumers.

I don't think a vast majority of commuters commute that kind of distance. I believe the vast majority of commuters commute less than 25 miles a day.
 

videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
6,783
27
91
We were talking hybrids there. They're an excellent stop gap solution and actually add performance and benefits to the car.

Hybrids, on the other hand, do add complexity, even if marginally so. But I would be much more likely to adopt a hybrid, yes.
 

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,587
82
91
www.bing.com
Electric cars are cool except that lithium batteries have a tendency to explode into a ball of flames exceeding 1000 deg celcius

Yet still LESS of a tendency to catch fire than a typical IC powered car.

But those are so common they don't make the news. Therefore... distorted reality.
 

phucheneh

Diamond Member
Jun 30, 2012
7,306
5
0
Panasonic can't even make a regular 12v car battery that's worth half a shit.

This should go well.