Question Taiwan Report: Intel has reached an agreement with TSMC

[mikegg]

Mods: if this is true, it should deserve its own thread. If it's not true, please feel free to delete it.

https://m.hexus.net/business/news/components/144379-amd-intel-battle-tsmc-capacity-says-report/

Insiders talking to the Taiwanese newspaper have indicated the following:

• Intel has reached an agreement with TSMC
• TSMC will begin mass production of Intel CPUs and/or GPUs next year
• Intel chips will be fabricated on TSMC's 7nm optimised version of its 6nm process. (I'm not sure if that means TSMC N7P, N7+, or N6.)

No details on the agreement has come out.

My personal predictions on an agreement:

TSMC sees this as an opportunity to force Intel out of the race for bleeding-edge nodes. TSMC will probably allow Intel to keep its 10nm and above nodes since those aren't a threat to them. TSMC may allow Intel to finish its 7nm nodes as well because let's be honest, Intel releasing its 7nm node in the year 2022/2023 is not a threat to TSMC. Intel will stop developing a node below 7nm after signing an agreement with TSMC. Over the next 5 years or so, Intel will sell off all of its existing fabs and become fabless. Intel has no leverage in this deal and TSMC will use this opportunity to completely remove Intel as a threat.

This is just pure speculation but I think Intel did negotiate with Samsung to use a partnership with Samsung as a leverage point in a deal with TSMC. But ultimately, Intel knows going with TSMC is guaranteed access to the best node. In addition, Intel knows signing with TSMC is a punch to Nvidia and two punches to AMD.

 

[Maxima1]

I completely disagree with your assessment that foreign students put downward pressure on STEM salaries. In fact, I'd argue the opposite: they increase STEM salaries because they create more competitive companies which means more STEM jobs.

The foreigners that do come here to study are usually the brightest in their respective countries. And most of them want to work and do work for American companies afterward, helping them become more competitive companies globally.

And the U.S. has historically had a giant shortage in stem talent. I work in Silicon Valley. I'm in at the director level and I hire software engineers. Without foreign students and skilled foreign workers, Silicon Valley is screwed. I estimate that roughly 50% of the qualified candidates we interview are either skilled immigrants or previously foreign students. The foreign talent literally keeps Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and most Silicon Valley companies competitive globally.

And not only do these foreign students help make American companies competitive, but their future kids also do as well.

Elon Musk was a foreign student. How many STEM jobs has Elon taken away from Americans? Zero. How many more STEM jobs have Elon's companies created directly and indirectly?

Sundar Pichai was a foreign student.

And while Lisa Su and Jansen Huang were not foreign students, they're both immigrants.

Just a few examples.

Yes, if we didn't get foreigners, we would have to start paying a lot of STEM grads significantly more as an effort to attract smart people to do the same as those foreigners. Because we do end up with a lot of talent already, we look like this:

Engineering graduates 'taking unskilled jobs'

Nearly a quarter of UK engineering graduates are working in non-graduate jobs or unskilled work such as waiting and shop work, research from Birmingham University suggests.

www.bbc.com

 

[vstar]

I have a hard time believing that Intel would shift their CPU production to TSMC at least for a couple more years, but I do think they will fab their Xe GPUs there.

Interesting times for sure!

 

[sandorski]

If true, it would be nice if Global Foundries would get their act together.

 

[mikegg]

I have a hard time believing that Intel would shift their CPU production to TSMC at least for a couple more years, but I do think they will fab their Xe GPUs there.

Interesting times for sure!

Makes sense to start with their Xe GPUs first since Raja probably made it a point to design the GPU without coupling it with Intel's troubled nodes.

However, I fully expect Intel to manufacture their future high-performance CPUs at TSMC. The sooner, the better for Intel. Their CPUs are hurting the most and in the direst need to hop on a bleeding-edge node to stave off AMD's charge. Intel does not want Epyc and Ryzen to gain momentum for another 2 years.

 

[Kenmitch]

TSMC gets large Intel chip order, Apple R&D plant - reports

Taiwan-based newspaper Commercial Times reports that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has ordered 6nm chips from TSMC (NYSE:TSM) for next year.The unprecedented Intel...

seekingalpha.com

The unprecedented Intel order would reportedly include 180,000 wafers, only slightly behind the raised 200K order from AMD, major TSMC client and Intel rival.

TSMC's leading-edge capacity is now fully-booked for the first half of next year.

Between the two that's a lot of wafers!

 

[Panino Manino]

Personally, even being an "AMD fan", I see this as a bad thing. For me would be better if Intel had managed to fix it's fabs because, how can TSMC fab everything for everyone? They can't make in infinite quantity of chips, some products will need to wait in line.

 

[moinmoin]

TSMC gets large Intel chip order, Apple R&D plant - reports

Taiwan-based newspaper Commercial Times reports that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has ordered 6nm chips from TSMC (NYSE:TSM) for next year.The unprecedented Intel...

seekingalpha.com

Between the two that's a lot of wafers!

If those numbers are true there's no way it's just for Xe.

 

[vstar]

Makes sense to start with their Xe GPUs first since Raja probably made it a point to design the GPU without coupling it with Intel's troubled nodes.

However, I fully expect Intel to manufacture their future high-performance CPUs at TSMC. The sooner, the better for Intel. Their CPUs are hurting the most and in the direst need to hop on a bleeding-edge node to stave off AMD's charge. Intel does not want Epyc and Ryzen to gain momentum for another 2 years.

I completely agree. To maintain competitiveness with an absolutely resurgent AMD, they need to get their CPUs on better nodes. If I were to take a guess, they might start utilizing TSMC for Granite Rapids. Possibly even SPR as they have a contractual obligation to have things ready for Aurora by 2021.

If those numbers are true there's no way it's just for Xe.

That's a good point. That could mean they will get Sapphire rapids fabbed through TSMC.

 

[dacostafilipe]

Personally, even being an "AMD fan", I see this as a bad thing. For me would be better if Intel had managed to fix it's fabs because, how can TSMC fab everything for everyone? They can't make in infinite quantity of chips, some products will need to wait in line.

They could buy some Intel fabs (those that have the ASML machines) and start producing wafers in the US ... oh wait.

 

[Thibsie]

Yeah but TSMC being the only ones with truly up to date processes will byte everyone in the bottom at some point.

I really hope Intel will spin off or sell its fab business and someone make it some good thing out of it.

 

[CentroX]

I saw this coming. They are trying to take away the advantage that AMD has.

 

[maddie]

TSMC gets large Intel chip order, Apple R&D plant - reports

Taiwan-based newspaper Commercial Times reports that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has ordered 6nm chips from TSMC (NYSE:TSM) for next year.The unprecedented Intel...

seekingalpha.com

Between the two that's a lot of wafers!

With TSMC increasing wafer output, the real question is what % is this order relative to next year's capacity.

AMD is using more than 200K/yr (16.67K/month). Seekingalpha sounds more like a trash site as I scan more of their articles.

 

[AnandThenMan]

If this happens it will do incalculable damage to consumers. Intel will bully and buy its way to as much capacity as possible, bully their way into getting exclusive access to the latest nodes. In other words business as usual for Intel but this time they will have effective control of the silicon farm everyone wants to use.

 

[CentroX]

If this happens it will do incalculable damage to consumers. Intel will bully and buy its way to as much capacity as possible, bully their way into getting exclusive access to the latest nodes. In other words business as usual for Intel but this time they will have effective control of the silicon farm everyone wants to use.

Theyre trying same guerilla tactics they did towards AMD 15 years ago.

This is bad news if it means AMD wont be able to compete again.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Theyre trying same guerilla tactics they did towards AMD 15 years ago.

Of course they are that's how Intel rolls. And hey it works why change?

This is bad news if it means AMD wont be able to compete again.

Intel's goal has always been to make sure AMD never reaches critical mass (they've flat out said this). Intel is very afraid of competing fairly.

 

[maddie]

If this happens it will do incalculable damage to consumers. Intel will bully and buy its way to as much capacity as possible, bully their way into getting exclusive access to the latest nodes. In other words business as usual for Intel but this time they will have effective control of the silicon farm everyone wants to use.

You really think TSMC will allow the very clients that have helped them grow quickly will be discarded so easily?

If this happens then TSMC is both the best from a technology perspective and also the dumbest from a strategic angle, so no, I don't think Intel will be able to force this.

 

[Elfear]

If this happens it will do incalculable damage to consumers. Intel will bully and buy its way to as much capacity as possible, bully their way into getting exclusive access to the latest nodes. In other words business as usual for Intel but this time they will have effective control of the silicon farm everyone wants to use.

That's what I'm worried about as well. Intel has MUCH more cash to throw around than AMD to buy up fab capacity. I hope this doesn't hurt consumers in the end.

 

[AnandThenMan]

You really think TSMC will allow the very clients that have helped them grow quickly will be discarded so easily?

Intel can give them 10x the volume and over pay for it. Vastly over pay, which Intel can easily do they have money falling out of their pockets.

If this happens then TSMC is both the best from a technology perspective and also the dumbest from a strategic angle, so no, I don't think Intel will be able to force this.

We'll see. Money talks very loudly.

 

[Spartak]

Mods: if this is true, it should deserve its own thread. If it's not true, please feel free to delete it.

https://m.hexus.net/business/news/components/144379-amd-intel-battle-tsmc-capacity-says-report/

Insiders talking to the Taiwanese newspaper have indicated the following:

• Intel has reached an agreement with TSMC
• TSMC will begin mass production of Intel CPUs and/or GPUs next year
• Intel chips will be fabricated on TSMC's 7nm optimised version of its 6nm process. (I'm not sure if that means TSMC N7P, N7+, or N6.)

I don't understand why it's the 6/7nm process they are buying in? It's performance is similar to Intel's 10nm, so they'd have to put in a lot of design effort for a process similar to theirs. I can't see TSMC's process hitting the 5+GHz mark for Intel judging by AMD's chips, so I really don't see the point in this.

For 5nm and beyond I can definately see why as those would be the alternative to their own 7nm process that's stalling.

 

[maddie]

Intel can give them 10x the volume and over pay for it. Vastly over pay, which Intel can easily do they have money falling out of their pockets.

We'll see. Money talks very loudly.

I'm fairly certain that TSMC doesn't think as short term as you believe.

 

[Spartak]

If this happens it will do incalculable damage to consumers. Intel will bully and buy its way to as much capacity as possible, bully their way into getting exclusive access to the latest nodes. In other words business as usual for Intel but this time they will have effective control of the silicon farm everyone wants to use.

Apple has more financial clout and is known for playing hardball, so Intel would still play second fiddle at best.

 

[maddie]

I don't understand why it's the 6/7nm process they are buying in? It's performance is similar to Intel's 10nm, so they'd have to put in a lot of design effort for a process similar to theirs. I can't see TSMC's process hitting the 5+GHz mark for Intel judging by AMD's chips, so I really don't see the point in this.

For 5nm and beyond I can definately see why as those would be the alternative to their own 7nm process that's stalling.

At which point the leading clients at TSMC will be migrating or have already migrated to 5nm. This alone contradicts the belief that Intel will monopolize leading edge nodes.

 

[AnandThenMan]

I'm fairly certain that TSMC doesn't think as short term as you believe.

I certainly hope you're right. But think about it, Intel can toss a wrench directly into the heart of AMD by taking away their foundry capacity. That is one tempting play, and Intel has proven consistently they have zero ethics.

 

[CentroX]

Of course they are that's how Intel rolls. And hey it works why change?

Intel's goal has always been to make sure AMD never reaches critical mass (they've flat out said this). Intel is very afraid of competing fairly.

Well said.

Intel just wont let AMD hit their stride. This is bad news for us all.