Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Vattila]

Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts!

 

[Abwx]

CPU sales and GPU sales are in the tank. CPU sales are probably worse than GPU sales. Zen 3 is still a very capable CPU. Intel released a dire warning for the CPU industry. My take is who cares, that means cheap CPU's for us. Now watch both Intel and AMD make pricing mistakes with the new CPU's.

Since Zen 3 is still very competitive it will be used as a relatively low cost solution for AM5 with Rembrandt, should be great for SFFs given the much better GPU than what is expected for the 7000 series.

 

[nicalandia]

What this measn?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558677996227084288

 

[Exist50]

What this measn?
View attachment 65915

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558677996227084288

Vendor locking.

AMD PSB Vendor Locks EPYC CPUs for Enhanced Security at a Cost

In this article, we discuss AMD PSB or Platform Secure Boot where AMD EPYC CPUs are vendor locked to server OEMs. Great for security. Bad for 2nd hand use

www.servethehome.com

Hopefully that's not the case. It could make the second hand market really difficult.

 

[lobz]

I think the question is how can they develop an open architecture system that can compete with Apple's memory bandwidth in consumer products? A big L2 or L3 will not do it. Apple hides their costs in their mainboard specs, which AMD has been less aggressive. I'm not so sure AMD will sit back and watch Apple be the defacto video editing champion. If Apple suddenly muscles into hardcore gaming, it could be the knockout blow. The consumer market probably is less profitable than servers, but I cannot imagine it will be conceded by AMD. Right now they are going to push their strengths in gaming. But they best figure out how to make a leap in video editing, especially in the products that consumers use most.

idk man... M1 or M2 or whatever, quicksync is the thing to beat...

 

[dnavas]

5950x's are holding at $550. NEW. I did pay only about $500 for one, but the other 6 were all from 700-800. Still a great CPU. I will pay $800 in a minute for the 7950x.

How do you feel about $900? j/k, I suspect I know :>
There will be first day buyers. The number of them is limited, that's a function of the reality of current market demand.

I don't expect Hans' scenario to play out -- I expect high prices until $100+/core server sales collapse. That said, I am pleasantly surprised by current 5950X pricing, so maybe there's a chance....

 

[DrMrLordX]

CPU sales and GPU sales are in the tank.

Intel's and nVidia's Q2 results reflect that. AMD's don't. It's not as simple as you make it.

To hell with mandatory PSB locks. At first it looked like OEMs had their hand in this, but now it looks like AMD is pushing it.

 

[Doug S]

I think the question is how can they develop an open architecture system that can compete with Apple's memory bandwidth in consumer products? A big L2 or L3 will not do it. Apple hides their costs in their mainboard specs, which AMD has been less aggressive. I'm not so sure AMD will sit back and watch Apple be the defacto video editing champion. If Apple suddenly muscles into hardcore gaming, it could be the knockout blow. The consumer market probably is less profitable than servers, but I cannot imagine it will be conceded by AMD. Right now they are going to push their strengths in gaming. But they best figure out how to make a leap in video editing, especially in the products that consumers use most.

You make the mistake of thinking that Apple and AMD are truly in competition. They aren't, because Apple is mostly separate from the Windows PC market. It works just like the smartphone market. There people choose first between iPhone and Android, then choose their phone. Very few people will look at both iPhones and Androids and buy whatever they think is best without regard to what they have currently or what they might get next. In the PC market to the extent people choose at all (i.e. those who buy from a big box store or from a Dell or HP skip this choice and go directly to Windows, because those places don't stock Macs) people choose between Windows and Mac. And maybe "other" if they are a weirdo like me who runs Linux. Very few buyers will directly compare a Macbook Pro against a Dell laptop with AMD CPU/GPU, for instance, because the decision about what OS you're going to run has to be made before you start picking out hardware.

People who do enough video editing to where superior video editing performance might influence their purchasing decision probably have enough invested in other software and hardware that switching from Windows to macOS is going to be very much non trivial. It isn't like switching between Intel and AMD which does not affect the software you run or the compatibility of the hardware you own at all. So if they switch they would need an overwhelming advantage. The rule of thumb in the RISC workstation days was you needed 2x performance advantage compared to the competition to induce people to switch in large numbers. Because if you disrupt your workflow by switching having to get used to a new OS, then spend a bunch of money for new software (or maybe just are forced to upgrade your out of date but still works for you software) as well as perhaps buying new hardware if what you had doesn't work quite right with your new Mac or PC, you do not want to repeat the exercise to go back a couple years down the road if the one who was behind introduces something new that leaps them ahead!

I keep seeing people discuss the possibility Apple might get into hardcore gaming, but my question is always "why would they want to do that?" They are already dominant in the mobile gaming sector, which represents more revenue than PC and console combined. PC gaming is only 20% of the overall gaming market, and Apple would have to beat their head against the wall for years (and pay for a lot of hookers and blow to induce game developers to do proper ports to Metal+TBDR to wring out all the performance the Mac is capable of) to hope they someday maybe get a quarter of that. Many gamers would never consider a Mac no matter how well it performed, because there's a huge crossover between gamers and enthusiasts - who are the last people who would buy a system that has an integrated GPU and soldered RAM, regardless of the performance. Something I'm sure AMD is well aware of.

Even if Apple steals a few percent of the PC market, AMD has a lot more to gain by ignoring them and focusing on taking more of Intel's share - and fending them off once they stop Sideshow Bobing themselves on rakes and get their act together again.

 

[dnavas]

To hell with mandatory PSB locks. At first it looked like OEMs had their hand in this, but now it looks like AMD is pushing it.

Yeah.

Intel's and nVidia's Q2 results reflect that. AMD's don't. It's not as simple as you make it.

...and you're right.
So, what was working for AMD that wasn't working for Intel? And to keep it even more relative to the topic, how does Zen4 need to be positioned to continue to win a market that Intel has spent so much effort losing?

 

[DrMrLordX]

So, what was working for AMD that wasn't working for Intel? And to keep it even more relative to the topic, how does Zen4 need to be positioned to continue to win a market that Intel has spent so much effort losing?

Depends on the market, but since we're mostly looking in the consumer space:

When it comes to client, desktop seems overshadowed by laptop, possibly by both volume AND revenue. There is the possibility that Rembrandt and Cezanne have sold very, very well. Rembrandt is still not widely-available, and there's no telling how many of them have sold outside of standard retail channels in mass org buys. It should be noted that Rembrandt offers better battery life than Alder Lake-U/P and better performance than Tiger Lake-U/H so it is kind of a no-brainer for anyone looking for a 45W-and-under laptop SoC for their org. Not to speak of the iGPU performance.

As much as I want to post some mindfactory numbers to explain the rest of the desktop space, I'm not confident that data is really representative of what's going on here. But it does seem that Alder Lake overall hit too late to take advantage of pandemic-related buys, and it has failed to attract enough interest in the currently demand-constrained market. Zen3 is kinda old so it's not likely that is what is carrying AMD's success in client, but you never know. Alder Lake-S,-U, and -P may be partly hindered by high prices that Intel still wishes to charge followed by too many warts for buyers to bite in this market. Raptor Lake may help Intel stay roughly even with Zen4 on desktop, but it is not likely to do them many favors in the mobile space if the high idle power issue persists. AMD is probably going to keep selling Rembrandt for awhile. What the mobile Zen4 stack really offers is anyone's guess. We should know more about that product lineup by January.

In the server space obviously Genoa will continue AMD's dominance where Intel stands to lose even more market share and revenue through 2024.

 

[RTX]

Intel's and nVidia's Q2 results reflect that. AMD's don't. It's not as simple as you make it.

To hell with mandatory PSB locks. At first it looked like OEMs had their hand in this, but now it looks like AMD is pushing it.

Does this simply mean you have to purchase the used motherboard along with the used cpu? Can the user replace the motherboard with the same model?

 

[Kedas]

The PSB feature doesn't vendor lock it, it's the way they use it that vendor locks it. The problem is you need to do an extra effort to not vendor lock it and still be using it, but obviously they don't see the advantage in that for themself.

The condition is that the CPU must recognise the signature of the bios, and obviously no vendor wants to make an effort to sign the bios of an other vendor. (although nothing is stopping them technically to do that)

There is another way and that is AMD sets-up it's own bios approval entity so the signature will always be the same AMD signature independent of the vendor, obviously vendors don't like that either since then it would be like AMD is censoring/controlling their motherboard. (if AMD don't want to sign it it cannot be used)

With other words it is vendor locked because the vendors don't like the alternative path of this security feature.
I'm sure there are even other ways to use the feature without vendor lock.


With the Ryzen price leaks I assume we more or less know now where they will fit in the market. Looks like the 8 core is better than the 3D zen3 version but I assume mainly in al the other tasks not necessary in games.
And the 7950X price looks like almost the same price as the 5950X launch price. (higher priced than intels best CPU)

 

[DrMrLordX]

Does this simply mean you have to purchase the used motherboard along with the used cpu? Can the user replace the motherboard with the same model?

See post from @Kedas , it seems to mean that you need to stay with a motherboard with the same UEFI signature. So you'd have to stay with the same OEM basically. Not sure how it's going to affect the already-very-small DiY Epyc market.

 

[coercitiv]

Other boards will offer 2 PCIe 5.0 M2 slots with independent access to CPU and call it a day.

Here's one such example with MSI X670E Carbon: 2x M2 slots using CPU lanes.

 

[Kaluan]

Zen 4, with larger L2 cache and a bunch of other improvements will likely see a boost in the performance benefit from SMT. You add on massive all-core clock speed improvements for Zen 4, and I suspect e-cores are going to not look very good.

Some of the late Zen4 PPC leakers DID state distinct PPC improvements between ST and MT, and the MT one was higher.
Historically I think Zen SMT implementations have been better than Intel's, so this can only mean they're building on what was already good.
Tho I'd love to see some Raptor Lake v Alder Lake P core SMT comparisons, there may be some gains there too.

 

[MadRat]

idk man... M1 or M2 or whatever, quicksync is the thing to beat...

The i9 and 3080 combination using Quicksync is truly impressive for workstation customers. But it is not simple and too much work for your average consumers. It is safe to say they do not compete for the same market.

You make the mistake of thinking that Apple and AMD are truly in competition. They aren't, because Apple is mostly separate from the Windows PC market. It works just like the smartphone market. There people choose first between iPhone and Android, then choose their phone. Very few people will look at both iPhones and Androids and buy whatever they think is best without regard to what they have currently or what they might get next. In the PC market to the extent people choose at all (i.e. those who buy from a big box store or from a Dell or HP skip this choice and go directly to Windows, because those places don't stock Macs) people choose between Windows and Mac. And maybe "other" if they are a weirdo like me who runs Linux. Very few buyers will directly compare a Macbook Pro against a Dell laptop with AMD CPU/GPU, for instance, because the decision about what OS you're going to run has to be made before you start picking out hardware.

People who do enough video editing to where superior video editing performance might influence their purchasing decision probably have enough invested in other software and hardware that switching from Windows to macOS is going to be very much non trivial. It isn't like switching between Intel and AMD which does not affect the software you run or the compatibility of the hardware you own at all. So if they switch they would need an overwhelming advantage. The rule of thumb in the RISC workstation days was you needed 2x performance advantage compared to the competition to induce people to switch in large numbers. Because if you disrupt your workflow by switching having to get used to a new OS, then spend a bunch of money for new software (or maybe just are forced to upgrade your out of date but still works for you software) as well as perhaps buying new hardware if what you had doesn't work quite right with your new Mac or PC, you do not want to repeat the exercise to go back a couple years down the road if the one who was behind introduces something new that leaps them ahead!

I keep seeing people discuss the possibility Apple might get into hardcore gaming, but my question is always "why would they want to do that?" They are already dominant in the mobile gaming sector, which represents more revenue than PC and console combined. PC gaming is only 20% of the overall gaming market, and Apple would have to beat their head against the wall for years (and pay for a lot of hookers and blow to induce game developers to do proper ports to Metal+TBDR to wring out all the performance the Mac is capable of) to hope they someday maybe get a quarter of that. Many gamers would never consider a Mac no matter how well it performed, because there's a huge crossover between gamers and enthusiasts - who are the last people who would buy a system that has an integrated GPU and soldered RAM, regardless of the performance. Something I'm sure AMD is well aware of.

Even if Apple steals a few percent of the PC market, AMD has a lot more to gain by ignoring them and focusing on taking more of Intel's share - and fending them off once they stop Sideshow Bobing themselves on rakes and get their act together again.

The problem isn't a few percent, its a steady erosion of the same base customer. Ignore it if you will, but this is a real threat to any manufacturer in the PC market.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

Buzzing launch of Raptor Lake or difficulties with microcode :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559208496956116994

 

[Hans Gruber]

I just wasted 3 minutes looking on the apple site. Just to see they still use PC parts for their Mac's. Still using Intel inside and they use Radeon graphics cards. Of course Mac users cannot just drop in a standard radeon card. They must pay the apple ferry man 2x-3x the cost of a standard card for their firmware extortion fee.

So neither Intel nor AMD will say anything bad about MAC's because Apple is their customer.

 

[biostud]

So neither Intel nor AMD will say anything bad about MAC's because Apple is their customer.

If you're a professional company with good products, you don't need to talk trash at all.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

I just wasted 3 minutes looking on the apple site. Just to see they still use PC parts for their Mac's. Still using Intel inside and they use Radeon graphics cards.

Only for the older models, which no-one sane buys anymore (because everyone knows Apple can't wait to drop support for them). They now have a full lineup of machines with only their own silicon, and AMD and Intel know full well that while Apple still buys things for them for now, very soon that will end.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Only for the older models, which no-one sane buys anymore (because everyone knows Apple can't wait to drop support for them). They now have a full lineup of machines with only their own silicon, and AMD and Intel know full well that while Apple still buys things for them for now, very soon that will end.

Good info. I knew Apple was using their own silicon for ipads and iphones. I was looking to see if they had their own silicon for their Power Mac's.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

Good info. I knew Apple was using their own silicon for ipads and iphones. I was looking to see if they had their own silicon for their Power Mac's.

See Apple M1.

It appears that I was wrong and that they haven't actually launched an Apple silicon version of the desktop Mac Pro, but that's probably happening very soon.

 

[Hans Gruber]

See Apple M1.

It appears that I was wrong and that they haven't actually launched an Apple silicon version of the desktop Mac Pro, but that's probably happening very soon.

I think Apple is on M2 now.

 

[moinmoin]

But AMD must have a reason for scrapping the regular Threadripper line, and the only thing I can come up with is profitability or rather the lack of it.

Non-Pro Threadripper's biggest problem always has been that it was a very cheap heavily castrated Epyc chip. That works well to clear inventory, but as long as supply is limited and demand is there for high priced fully unlocked Epyc and Threadripper Pro chips it makes little economic sense to still offer a cheaper Threadripper line that will still end up heavily supply constrained anyway. Add to that that Genoa is adding even more memory channels, and the cost equation doesn't really make sense in the consumer space.

Whenever shipments of Epyc chips reach a level where supply pass demand I can imagine AMD reintroducing non-Pro Threadripper.

Vendor locking.

AMD PSB Vendor Locks EPYC CPUs for Enhanced Security at a Cost

In this article, we discuss AMD PSB or Platform Secure Boot where AMD EPYC CPUs are vendor locked to server OEMs. Great for security. Bad for 2nd hand use

www.servethehome.com

Hopefully that's not the case. It could make the second hand market really difficult.

AMD may as well save the cost for the socket if the chips are effectively soldered just by firmware anyway...

So, what was working for AMD that wasn't working for Intel?

In short: AMD's products are in high demand whereas supply is limited. While demand is falling, for AMD it still is higher than they can supply.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Non-Pro Threadripper's biggest problem always has been that it was a very cheap heavily castrated Epyc chip. That works well to clear inventory, but as long as supply is limited and demand is there for high priced fully unlocked Epyc and Threadripper Pro chips it makes little economic sense to still offer a cheaper Threadripper line that will still end up heavily supply constrained anyway. Add to that that Genoa is adding even more memory channels, and the cost equation doesn't really make sense in the consumer space.

Whenever shipments of Epyc chips reach a level where supply pass demand I can imagine AMD reintroducing non-Pro Threadripper.


AMD may as well save the cost for the socket if the chips are effectively soldered just by firmware anyway...


In short: AMD's products are in high demand whereas supply is limited. While demand is falling, for AMD it still is higher than they can supply.

For starters you could have bought a B350/X370 back in 2017 and pop in a Zen 3 CPU and have ram running @3800mhz in 2022. Intel only supports 2 generations of CPU's with each motherboard. AMD listens to their customers. Mostly threatening to go back to Intel if they don't fix their stuff. They fix their stuff and people are happy.

 

[nicalandia]

More info on AVX512 Genoa



Genoa and Zen4 are going to murk Xeons in AVX512 Because they will lock it. Unless you pay to unlock it by SDSi


Genoa is such a Monster. It has so many Cores that it just breaks Cinebench and CPUZ.