Speculation: Ryzen 4000 series/Zen 3

[trexfromouterspace]

Evidence? They only said the performance uplight is like a new architecture. It's still an evolution of Zen. If you watched the video I posted, they already laid out to Zen 5 before Zen 2 was released.

Forrest Norrod

"When asked about what kind of performance gain Milan's CPU core microarchitecture, which is known as Zen 3, will deliver relative to the Zen 2 microarchitecture that Rome relies on in terms of instructions processed per CPU clock cycle (IPC), Norrod observed that -- unlike Zen 2, which was more of an evolution of the Zen microarchitecture that powers first-gen Epyc CPUs -- Zen 3 will be based on a completely new architecture."

Completely new architecture = not Zen. Doesn't get more obvious than that.

 

[etrin]

how long before the 50's drop?

 

[Hitman928]

Forrest Norrod

"When asked about what kind of performance gain Milan's CPU core microarchitecture, which is known as Zen 3, will deliver relative to the Zen 2 microarchitecture that Rome relies on in terms of instructions processed per CPU clock cycle (IPC), Norrod observed that -- unlike Zen 2, which was more of an evolution of the Zen microarchitecture that powers first-gen Epyc CPUs -- Zen 3 will be based on a completely new architecture."

Completely new architecture = not Zen. Doesn't get more obvious than that.

What constitutes a completely new architecture is a very vague area. I guarantee you Zen3 will not be a completely new uarch like Zen was compared to the Bulldozer lineage. We'll have to wait and see the details when it releases to determine just how new this new architecture is but I suspect there will still be a ton of carry over from Zen/Zen2.

 

[turtile]

Forrest Norrod

"When asked about what kind of performance gain Milan's CPU core microarchitecture, which is known as Zen 3, will deliver relative to the Zen 2 microarchitecture that Rome relies on in terms of instructions processed per CPU clock cycle (IPC), Norrod observed that -- unlike Zen 2, which was more of an evolution of the Zen microarchitecture that powers first-gen Epyc CPUs -- Zen 3 will be based on a completely new architecture."

Completely new architecture = not Zen. Doesn't get more obvious than that.

That was written by the author, not Forrest Norrod. Again, where is your factual evidence? He actually said the performance gains are “right in line with what you would expect from an entirely new architecture.”

 

[HurleyBird]

What constitutes a completely new architecture is a very vague area. I guarantee you Zen3 will not be a completely new uarch like Zen was compared to the Bulldozer lineage. We'll have to wait and see the details when it releases to determine just how new this new architecture is, I suspect there will still be a ton of carry over from Zen/Zen2.

Probably mostly analogous to Nehalem -> Sandy Bridge. What Keller was referring to as "new architecture" is probably more analogous to Bulldozer -> Zen. That said, Keller's adage is almost certainly a simplification.

 

[yuri69]

Despite the massive success, AMD still wound up on the rocks. They had no follow-up. They kept milking the same underlying uarch for far too long, thanks in no small part to Hector Ruiz (also, anyone remember the old K9 and K10 project(s) that never saw the light of day?).

The good thing is for AMD now is that Zen3 is here and Zen4 is on the (admittedly distant) horizon. The underlying designs are there or will be there. The process tech is already in place; TSMC is in full production on 5nm as we speak. The only thing that has to happen is for AMD to get stuck on one particular uarch again for too long. Then bad things may happen. Or if they don't, AMD gets to rehash endlessly at our expense. They get to become the monster we always hoped they'd slay.

K9 was AMD's fireball speedracer CPU. It got all the goodies - a superlong pipeline and trace cache. The 10GHz hype was very real back then. It got canned since NetBurst turned the public opinion away from hot single cores. Parts of the project were reused in late K8 revisions. I guess, it was a right decision.

K10 was (once) an experimental project driven by the multi-threaded core ideas brought alive by introduction of HyperThreading. We got an iterated version known as Bulldozer - 7 years later... So yea

Now they started a pipeline full of designs with Zen. I hope they won't do retarded weird experiments but stick to evolutionary steps like Zen 1 -> Zen 2. They have to iterate on cores, interconnect, GPUs and packaging tech. That's a lot of different stuff to keep in sync.

As for the development cadence - AMD is a relatively small company. They don't have the manpower to push so many products in parallel, I guess.

 

[Martimus]

For those of us that are DEAF (literally), there is no CC in that video. Please summarize.

They just were saying that they were developing out to Zen 5 because they had to plan out that far in advance. They described what is needed in processor design in order to be relevant in today's market as well.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

Zen3 without AVX512 is disaster. AVX512 was introduced in 2013 and if AMD cannot implement it after 7 years then it means AMX will be implemented in 2030? ARM Fujitsu CPU is destroying Nvidia's gigantic Volta GPUs in supercomputers thanks to matrix multiplication instructions. Intel, Neoverse, Apple and Nuvia will have MatMul in servers since next year.

Funny thing is that Jim Keller back in 2015 knew about MatMul SVE (officialy released in 2016, but developed 2014-2015). AMD could have MatMul SVE capable CPU in 2019 (K13). Now we can see how bad decision was to cancel K12. No wonder that Keller left. There is theoretical option Zen3 will have x86 version of SVE MatMul). But I doubt. IMHO Keller left because AMD canceled MatMul HPC uarch, he didn't care about ISA, whether its ARM or x86.

Just few days to confirmation Zen3 has SMT4!

AMD has a bit of time because only sapphire rapids will support AMX and same for full support of AVX-512, alder lake doesn't support both

 

[soresu]

As for the development cadence - AMD is a relatively small company. They don't have the manpower to push so many products in parallel, I guess.

Depends on investment, ARM is (or was) small and yet their continuous R&D really was something to behold.

A shame that GPU clearly got the shorter end of that stick, but I guess something had to give - I wonder if any nVidia tech will make it into Mali in the future, or if Mali will just go belly up in short order.

 

[soresu]

For those of us that are DEAF (literally), there is no CC in that video. Please summarize.

Considering Google's incredible weight of voice recognition research I'm surprised that they don't auto generate text subtitles for all videos on Youtube by now - or provide some sort of video player that uses the Google Assistant voice engine to help in this way.

Edit: Apparently Google do auto caption all videos now, perhaps this was not the case when this was uploaded, you could download and then re upload this on a personal account to get a captioned version if it doesn't get hit with copyright or something?

 

[AAbattery]

For those of us that are DEAF (literally), there is no CC in that video. Please summarize.

If you have an Android phone, try the Live Transcribe app by Google.

 

[Markfw]

If you have an Android phone, try the Live Transcribe app by Google.

Its not free....Oh, and I am back on a iphone since my cochlear implant software does not support anything but iphones now.

But thanks for all the suggestions, soresu and AABattery !

Oh, and for those that don't know. A cochlear implant lets you understand people , one at a time, like 5 feet away, and it has to be quiet. Hearing for me in that case is about 60% of the words. Thats best case. Most TV and videos have noises in the background that don't allow me to understand what is being said.

 

[NostaSeronx]

If there is a Zen3+, then there must be a Zen2+...

Zen2 CCD + Bixby IOD => X570 + Bixby Chipset
Zen2+ CCD + Durango IOD => X670 + Durango Chipset
Zen3 CCD + Durango IOD => Same as previous
Zen3+ CCD + Phoenix IOD => X770 + Phoenix Chipset
Zen4 CCD + Phoenix IOD => Same as previous

Early shipment of Milan appears to be pre-spring 2021 using a GN-Bx die that isn't 0 or 1.

Knowing X670 stuff supporting USB 4.0 there is only two nodes for Durango to be on:
USB4 PHY - TSMC 5FF 1.2V, North/South Poly Orientation
USB4 PHY - TSMC 6FF 1.8V, North/South Poly Orientation

[N-1] I/O die = 6FF when [N-0] CC die = 5FF

 

[A///]

If it's a substantial launch, then yes. And they certainly seem capable of doing so. The fab tech is there, the working groups are hitting their milestones. Only thing that seems lacking is firmware support.

Ah now you say substantial. New feature sets with nil gains in performance or that of Zen to Zen+ isn't worthy of a new SKU accompanied by ASP reset. Zen+ wasn't even planned IIRC originally.

And, yeah, Him. IDK why you thought I was referring to you. I thought we'd seen the last of him but he smelled digital blood.

 

[A///]

Preaching to the choir. Sadly, I do not think AMD will get that market share by slowing down to an 18 month cadence from 15-month or 13-month. I

TBH, I think they took this long because they saw the mobile market exploding in growth due to the pandemic and people buying up laptops. I still can't find laptops I want without being placed on a long waiting list or having an order canceled. I'm not sure what the 2021 outlook is in regards to COVID, but it isn't looking bright thus far.

 

[Hans Gruber]

I am still looking for a post in 2017. I ran into an AMD employee on a forum and I asked if Zen was the real deal. He said the plan was for Zen through Zen4. He said by Zen 2 they would leave Intel in the rear view mirror. Not quite because of the gaming advantage that Intel still has against Zen 2, but this was making predictions several years in advance. People forget that TSMC has given AMD a pretty significant leg up on Intel due to their execution of 7nm and silicon in general vs. gloflo silicon on the original Zen CPU's.

Anything beyond Zen 4 is new architecture. Zen 3 is all new architecture but still based on the Zen architecture. As has been pointed out things they intended to include in Zen will show up in Zen 3 and Zen 4.

Because they fixed the infinity fabric problem in Zen 3. Gaming is not tied to CPU clock speed but removing the memory latency problem that plagued all iterations of Zen cpu's prior.

For the first time probably since the original Playstation. The new gaming consoles are going to be really good. This is good because consumers will give the middle finger to Intel, AMD and Nvidia and buy consoles in protest of price gouging in the GPU market. This will probably spread to the CPU market which hasn't had the price gouging problems that the GPU market has since the cryptocurrency boom and bust.

I will probably sit out Zen 3 until Q2 of next year. I need a new GPU and it will either be Big Navi or the 3070.

 

[Kedas]

....
Because they fixed the infinity fabric problem in Zen 3. Gaming is not tied to CPU clock speed but removing the memory latency problem that plagued all iterations of Zen cpu's prior.

For the first time probably since the original Playstation. The new gaming consoles are going to be really good.
.....

Aren't the gaming consoles Zen2 or will they have some Zen2+ variant?

 

[NostaSeronx]

Aren't the gaming consoles Zen2 or will they have some Zen2+ variant?

They are exactly the same Zen2 as Renoir, but on an improved 7nm process. So, technically based off of Zen+, then yeah maybe they are a Zen2+ variant.

 

[moinmoin]

btw does anyone knows how actually is the relationship between Raja and Lisa

None? I think in hindsight Koduri was like a filler keeping RTG up and running in the (cash and staff strapped) bad times. He was probably brought back by Papermaster for being an ATi veteran and knowing him from his short stint at Apple. David Wang likely is Dr. Su's pick.

Considering Google's incredible weight of voice recognition research I'm surprised that they don't auto generate text subtitles for all videos on Youtube by now - or provide some sort of video player that uses the Google Assistant voice engine to help in this way.

Edit: Apparently Google do auto caption all videos now, perhaps this was not the case when this was uploaded, you could download and then re upload this on a personal account to get a captioned version if it doesn't get hit with copyright or something?

YouTuber uploaders can manually disable showing auto generate subtitles on their videos. For whatever reason AMD opted to do just that for all of its videos.

 

[itsmydamnation]

so seriously where are my damn leaks!!!!!

I have never seen this before for any cpu launch, all they way back to the K7 days.

 

[Kuiva maa]

My guess is that since Zen 2 based products sell so well in the DIY market, AMD has zero reasons to let numbers leak.

 

[Kedas]

My guess is that since Zen 2 based products sell so well in the DIY market, AMD has zero reasons to let numbers leak.

Or they are so close to the Zen 2 performance numbers that nobody even knows they have Zen 3 results

 

[inf64]

Two more days, hodor!

 

[krumme]

For those of us that are DEAF (literally), there is no CC in that video. Please summarize.

Looks to me like an enthusiastic management team that seems to support each other. Very good friendly atmosphere, strong culture. Compettitive, ambitious and collaborative at the same time.
Intel needs to change radically to fight that imo.
Watch RTG as Suzanne Plummer transforms it.

 

[.vodka]

so seriously where are my damn leaks!!!!!

I have never seen this before for any cpu launch, all they way back to the K7 days.

This is unprecedented. I'll say it again, AMD has sent all the known leakers some hitmen their way.

This is some state secret level stuff.