Speculation: Ryzen 3000 series

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What will Ryzen 3000 for AM4 look like?


  • Total voters
    230

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,629
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Why? They already have a strong product line. What's more important is they have all the kinks ironed out and launch it the right way. It's not a nice thing to rush engineers.

They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,952
1,585
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They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
The argument makes no sense. Cadence is not a natural law. Tick tock investor bs. You cant forcefully push things through without severe consequences. In this case it's not even economy as more resources wouldn't get it faster. If you need another metal layer spin so be it.
Besides from that the execution seems spot on anyways. No need to rush like zen was. As said current portfolio is doing as planned while Intel is supplied constrained.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
2,675
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They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.

Well, they probably lost some time with the GloFo fiasco. If anything their ability to switch fabs and stay pretty much on track is impressive.
 
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moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
The way I see is AMD should try not fall behind TSMC's (and potentially Samsung's) process node cadence. That way they can always make the best use of what pure play foundries offer. So ideally each new Zen gen/refresh uses a rather current process node, and delaying new Zen gens may end up making a Zen gen pick up a "last gen" node or, worse, unnecessarily limits the sales window the specific Zen gen has before moving to the next node. Of course, skipping a node is still possible as well. For now I'm assuming the delays are early growing pains due to the change of foundries. This should improve going forward.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,629
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The argument makes no sense. Cadence is not a natural law. Tick tock investor bs.

So when Intel failed to adhere to their own "investor bs" roadmaps, you didn't see anything wrong ahead for them? Look at what they had planned for 14nm and 10nm. Look at the actual execution. Going off-roadmap is a bad thing, investors or no investors.

Well, they probably lost some time with the GloFo fiasco. If anything their ability to switch fabs and stay pretty much on track is impressive.

That is true. I had hoped it wouldn't set them this far back, and yet here we are. If they can get Zen3 out by July/August 2020 then all is well, more-or-less.

The way I see is AMD should try not fall behind TSMC's (and potentially Samsung's) process node cadence.

I mostly agree with that. TSMC in particular will set the pace for future developments for at least the next two years. What happens after TSMC 5nm is anyone's guess.
 

rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
505
424
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They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.

It's really necessary to remind you, that AMD was forced to switch from GlobalFoundries to TSMC, when GF cancelled their 7nm process?
For TSMC, AMD is just one of many customers/clients they have and definitely not the most important like Apple or Qualcomm for example.
 

sgeocla123

Junior Member
May 14, 2019
3
1
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When Ryzen first came out it was using a new architecture on a new node. Ryzen 2000 was basically just using an enhanced architecture on an enhanced node, more opportunistic than planned.
On top of GloFlo change, Ryzen 3000 again is using a new architecture on a new node. I would not infer from Ryzen 1000 to 2000 that the "usual" release cadence is 1 year. But then again Ryzen 4000 is using 7nm+ enhanced node with a new Zen 3 architecture.
Given that IO+core chiplets allow AMD to speed up development we could actually expect Ryzen 4000 to be again released 1 year after Ryzen 3000.
 

Hans Gruber

Platinum Member
Dec 23, 2006
2,133
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It's really necessary to remind you, that AMD was forced to switch from GlobalFoundries to TSMC, when GF cancelled their 7nm process?
For TSMC, AMD is just one of many customers/clients they have and definitely not the most important like Apple or Qualcomm for example.
Totally wrong, PS5 is based on zen and Navi GPU. Sony is a big deal in gaming. This is in addition to the PC market.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,952
1,585
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So when Intel failed to adhere to their own "investor bs" roadmaps, you didn't see anything wrong ahead for them? Look at what they had planned for 14nm and 10nm. Look at the actual execution. Going off-roadmap is a bad thing, investors or no investors.



That is true. I had hoped it wouldn't set them this far back, and yet here we are. If they can get Zen3 out by July/August 2020 then all is well, more-or-less.



I mostly agree with that. TSMC in particular will set the pace for future developments for at least the next two years. What happens after TSMC 5nm is anyone's guess.
Intel excactly shows why this cadence planning and idea of execution is something from hell. You need flexibility so you can adapt quick. That's what gets you in control. Adaptability.
People say Intel execution was bad. Well the investor and marketing oriented yearly tick tock planning was the foundation for it.

What happens if you dont adapt and is 2 month late? Then people start to whine blame spread fear what not. All because of something that starts with some unrealistic investor circus show. Labelled shareholder value.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
2,675
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...That is true. I had hoped it wouldn't set them this far back, and yet here we are. If they can get Zen3 out by July/August 2020 then all is well, more-or-less...

I think that will depend more on how much design time went into Zen 3 rather than the node itself. We shall see but I would expect Q4 2020. Intel's tick-tock was never really 1 year either, anyway.
 

rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
505
424
136
Totally wrong, PS5 is based on zen and Navi GPU. Sony is a big deal in gaming. This is in addition to the PC market.

Consoles are indeed big volume products during their lifetime, however not so important in terms of single year.
PS5 should not influence release of Ryzen 3xxx series because it will show up most probably on Autumn 2020.
 
Last edited:

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
657
871
136
Well, they probably lost some time with the GloFo fiasco. If anything their ability to switch fabs and stay pretty much on track is impressive.
I don't think Matisse was ever planned to be on GF's 7LP. After GF abandoned 7LP, wasn't it said by Papermaster or someone else that only one product was planned to be on that node and that they didn't expect roadmaps to change?

I think it's to be expected that AMD will be a quarter off here and there in their "yearly cadence". On the plus side, we can hopefully expect a better launch without too many issues for early adopters.
 

prtskg

Senior member
Oct 26, 2015
261
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101
I don't think Matisse was ever planned to be on GF's 7LP. After GF abandoned 7LP, wasn't it said by Papermaster or someone else that only one product was planned to be on that node and that they didn't expect roadmaps to change?

I think it's to be expected that AMD will be a quarter off here and there in their "yearly cadence". On the plus side, we can hopefully expect a better launch without too many issues for early adopters.
While AMD did say that roadmaps won't change, I don't think they mentioned how many products was planned on GF7nm. And I agree that being late by a quarter is no big deal.
 

amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
360
136
They're breaking their cadence, which is a bad sign. Summit Ridge -> Pinnacle Ridge was 13 months. All of their roadmaps show yearly relentless releases. If AMD really wants to knock it out of the park, Zen3 needs to show up in 2020. Not . . . Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
Well, I think end of the year retail sales (so, if you had an October launch for zen3) would work out very well with the traditional end of year shopping season.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
733
741
106
Zen+ APUs would be the bottom of the Ryzen 3000 series lineup (<$200)

Zen 2 processors would be the top of the Ryzen 3000 series lineup ($200+)
 
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scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,946
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Well, they probably lost some time with the GloFo fiasco. If anything their ability to switch fabs and stay pretty much on track is impressive.
The magnitude of GloFo's failure can't really be understated. They were given the keys to the kingdom so to speak. IBM's process engineers are some of the best in the world, and even with that gift they still couldn't get it out the door and market it.
 

amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
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Well, these are really good frequency improvements, especially the boost frequency improvement of 4.2, up from 3.9. It also confirms SMT disabled on the 3200g; very high frequencies though for a ryzen 3. I still think a low bin frequency (~3.3-3.8 with 8t or 3.4-3.8 with 6t) would fit very nicely between 3200 and 3400. With native dual core Picasso there, I would think the binning strategy would change slightly from RR, so less quadcore dies will be disposed of as Athlons.

Also, I do think late in the year there would be enough die salvage accumulated to launch sub $200 7nm R5 4c/8t; they may not be announced in Taipei though.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,210
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It's really necessary to remind you, that AMD was forced to switch from GlobalFoundries to TSMC, when GF cancelled their 7nm process?

I don't buy into that. It's much more likles Dr. Su made a power play and planned for TSMC all along as she new GF would have to cancel 7nm if AMD leaves due to lack of customers. And with no 7nm from GF, the WSA issue surely turned into a much smaller problem.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
733
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Also, I do think late in the year there would be enough die salvage accumulated to launch sub $200 7nm R5 4c/8t; they may not be announced in Taipei though.

I would guess that those end up being OEM only products like the Ryzen 3 2300X and Ryzen 5 2500X.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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I don't buy into that. It's much more likles Dr. Su made a power play and planned for TSMC all along as she new GF would have to cancel 7nm if AMD leaves due to lack of customers. And with no 7nm from GF, the WSA issue surely turned into a much smaller problem.
Dr. Su have a PhD that covers process tech as I recall. I think she studied soi as long way back as the mid 99ties. She is up front on process tech. She would have been 100% in control where gf was all the way and made the right adaption and negotiations of the wsa. Gf cancelling 7nm was probably more known to her than the bod of gf. I am pretty sure gf cancelling 7nm was seen as more of a great opportunity than a setback because it also meant gf couldn't fulfill their part. Far more upside imo.
 
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Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
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Dr. Su have a PhD that covers process tech as I recall. I think she studied soi as long way back as the mid 99ties. She is up front on process tech. She would have been 100% in control where gf was all the way and made the right adaption and negotiations of the wsa. Gf cancelling 7nm was probably more known to her than the bod of gf. I am pretty sure gf cancelling 7nm was seen as more of a great opportunity than a setback because it also meant gf couldn't fulfill their part. Far more upside imo.
Considering the 14nm IO chip I disagree. GF dropping 14nm probably had more to do with AMD's choice not move to GF's 7nm in future and them saying they will only be ordering legacy chips and the new IO chips from them in the future. AMD didn't move to TSMC because GF dropped 7nm, GF dropped 7nm because AMD went to TSMC for 7nm.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,450
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Dr. Su have a PhD that covers process tech as I recall. I think she studied soi as long way back as the mid 99ties. She is up front on process tech. She would have been 100% in control where gf was all the way and made the right adaption and negotiations of the wsa. Gf cancelling 7nm was probably more known to her than the bod of gf. I am pretty sure gf cancelling 7nm was seen as more of a great opportunity than a setback because it also meant gf couldn't fulfill their part. Far more upside imo.
Ph.D in electrical engineering. Not in chemistry or physics.
 

amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
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I would guess that those end up being OEM only products like the Ryzen 3 2300X and Ryzen 5 2500X.
I think they would have a lot more appeal and margin for boxed products for budget DIY enthusiasts. Margin would be good if aimed at OC'ers who have their own coolers.