Question Speculation: RDNA2 + CDNA Architectures thread

[uzzi38]

All die sizes are within 5mm^2. The poster here has been right on some things in the past afaik, and to his credit was the first to saying 505mm^2 for Navi21, which other people have backed up. Even still though, take the following with a pich of salt.

Navi21 - 505mm^2

Navi22 - 340mm^2

Navi23 - 240mm^2

Source is the following post: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1588075782.A.C1E.html

 

[Glo.]

You didn't answer my question though, doesnt matter if they have 10 SKUs. AMD always chose the top dog to demonstrate.

Also that bench was done with a Zen 3 and according to AMD Zen 3 is the fastest gaming CPU so the gap might even bigger than 10% to 15% compared to 3080.

Simply because AMD has to compete with Nvidia, which hasn't shown all of their cards, yet. Above, and beyond 3080 SKU, apart from 3090.

 

[Markfw]

Well, there were AMD supporters during their dark years of Bulldozer era. There is nothing wrong with people getting what they want lol.
Even if you get 5900x or 10900k, it isn't going to drastically change their computing experience regardless of what they choose, especially when your main application is gaming.

I said (maybe not here, but in the last hour) everybody is entitled to their opinion. But if I were buying a CPU, and one brand was better than the other for the same price, I buy the better one. Gaming included now. And power usage. There is NO reason for Intel anything now.

And in AMDs dark days I bought a couple only due to price. (for friends that didn;t need the speed)

 

[Glo.]

I said (maybe not here, but in the last hour) everybody is entitled to their opinion. But if I were buying a CPU, and one brand was better than the other for the same price, I buy the better one. Gaming included now. And power usage. There is NO reason for Intel anything now.

And in AMDs dark days I bought a couple only due to price. (for friends that didn;t need the speed)

In my country cheapest Core i3 9100F costs 69€, at this very moment, cheapest 9400F costs 119€, cheapest 9600KF costs 169€. Cheapest Ryzen 5 3600 - 199€, cheapest Ryzen 3 3300X - 135€. If I can find one 3300X.

Couple that with 300 series MoBos being 10-20% cheaper than 450, 470, 550 and only competing in prices with A520 and you get plenty of good reasons to still buy Intel in 2020.

 

[JasonLD]

I said (maybe not here, but in the last hour) everybody is entitled to their opinion. But if I were buying a CPU, and one brand was better than the other for the same price, I buy the better one. Gaming included now. And power usage. There is NO reason for Intel anything now.

And in AMDs dark days I bought a couple only due to price. (for friends that didn;t need the speed)

In the perfect world, no tech companies needs to spend money on advertisement if the performance and product superiority are only thing that matters, but that is not the case on pretty much every market segment out there.
There is a reason companies spend a lot of money on marketing to build up a brand loyalty and mindshare.

 

[linkgoron]

Well then why don't we put the brakes into the doom and gloom, and into the hype train for 20 days,

Haven't you learned from previous releases to lower the hype? Im already prepared for the "early drivers" talk, or fine wine, or whatever if they don't beat the 3080.

and let AMD to show their products, and for those products to speak for themselves, instead of turning this thread into Circle Jerk of "I told you so! RADEON IS CRAP!"?

LOL who said anything about doom and gloom? I was hoping for a card that would be 5% faster than the 3080 but AMD showed one that looks like it'll be 10% slower. Is that terrible? Of course not. A card midway between a 2080ti and 3080 would be almost double than what AMD had before, and with good perf/watt and pricing it could do very well. I was just hoping for something better - not a fantasy 3090 killer, but something more competitive with the 3080.

 

[swilli89]

Last few pages I just read are just peak AT forums and why I only come around for big launches these days. Why all the negativity?

—AMD shows a very vague preview that by all accounts places SOME variant (whether that's very top-end or not the top-end) of big Navi in the exact same performance class as 3080.

Multiple sites show the BL 3 score as even with the 3080 and on Gears 5 a few sites places them as even and a few show the 3080 like 5-10% faster. On the MW score I had some sites showing Big Navi as winning by 10%.

I think for now that's as far as anyone needs or can even go in terms of assumption. Again, who cares about 5-10%? People love to express more or less this sentiment of "well 5% doesn't matter to ME but... OTHERS care about halo-status!"

Can a human being sit down at computer A and B and see a difference between 5% in frame times? No.

AMD showed a card on pre-release drivers more or less matching a 3080 at 4k (where cpu doesn't really matter). And instead of excitement it's this weird defensive argument trying to downplay this achievement which smacks of bias and fan boyism.

 

[eek2121]

Hope so but Im still sure its the full die. May I remind everyone here Navi 2x is stll Raja's child. What's his record btw?

Are you sure you aren’t Raja’s child? 🤪

Big Navi refers to the die. Not particular SKU. If there are 4 SKUs based on this die it can be any of those SKUs could've been used to demo this GPU.

It could've been RX 6800 - the lowest one, as long as 6900XT - the highest one. Assuming, with straight face that is the highest one, is short sighted to say the very least.

This. I haven’t owned an AMD GPU in my gaming system in years (the only one I’ve purchased in the last 5 years is the 570 for a family member’s machine). I don’t claim to know Lisa Su, but she thinks very much like me. She brought AMD from the brink of bankruptcy to one of the most disruptive tech companes out there. If you think she can’t disrupt the GPU space you should short AMD’s stock and continue to do so until you run out of money.

Do you think today’s Ryzen event was really about games? No, it was not (hint: it was about specific workload types; tge EVENT was targeted at gamers, not the product). I look forward to interesting responses tomorrow.

 

[Midwayman]

that's what I do in my head. I'm sure it isn't exact, but "close enough" without too much thinking and I'm satisfied with convincing myself that 4k FPS are relatively similar to 3440x1440

It should be quite a bit faster actually. wqhd is probably close to 60% of the pixels. I know my dqhd is still like 80-90% ish.

 

[eek2121]

1. Rogame leaked months ago, that there are 4 SKUs for consumer market that are based on Navi 21 die. You can easily find them on his site. Here is his site, with this article: https://hardwareleaks.com/2020/05/23/exclusive-future-amd-gpu-stack-big-navi-navi10-refresh/
4. The macOS leak involves only full dies specs, not particular SKUs, because for particular SKUs, and you know that perfectly well, you need GPU BIOSes, and you cannot extract BIOSes without having the GPUs on your hands.
So yes, there were 80, 40, and 32 CU dies. But just dies. Not SKUs. Im baffled that you are using that stupid argument to prove it must be the highest SKU.

You are entitled to believe what you want. Its your opinion after all, and you are responsble for it.

But your opinion may not be a reflection of the truth. AMD could've used one of 4 SKUs(variants of Navi 21 die) for this presentation. It could've been 6800 SKU, it could've been 6900 XT, whatever. Any of those possibilities are equally, well, possible at this point.

If anyone asks me? I believe AMD demoed 72 CU version.

72CUs at most, and not the best/most promising SKU. AMD does enjoy sandbagging a bit.

Simply because AMD has to compete with Nvidia, which hasn't shown all of their cards, yet. Above, and beyond 3080 SKU, apart from 3090.

I said (maybe not here, but in the last hour) everybody is entitled to their opinion. But if I were buying a CPU, and one brand was better than the other for the same price, I buy the better one. Gaming included now. And power usage. There is NO reason for Intel anything now.

And in AMDs dark days I bought a couple only due to price. (for friends that didn;t need the speed)

I but what is best. Performance is a huge factor, but so is heat, power consumption, and price, company be damned. That is why I bought a 1080ti, don’t look back, and haven’t touched NVIDIA with a 10 foot pole. That is also why I bought Ryzen early on.

Last few pages I just read are just peak AT forums and why I only come around for big launches these days. Why all the negativity?

—AMD shows a very vague preview that by all accounts places SOME variant (whether that's very top-end or not the top-end) of big Navi in the exact same performance class as 3080.

Multiple sites show the BL 3 score as even with the 3080 and on Gears 5 a few sites places them as even and a few show the 3080 like 5-10% faster. On the MW score I had some sites showing Big Navi as winning by 10%.

I think for now that's as far as anyone needs or can even go in terms of assumption. Again, who cares about 5-10%? People love to express more or less this sentiment of "well 5% doesn't matter to ME but... OTHERS care about halo-status!"

Can a human being sit down at computer A and B and see a difference between 5% in frame times? No.

AMD showed a card on pre-release drivers more or less matching a 3080 at 4k (where cpu doesn't really matter). And instead of excitement it's this weird defensive argument trying to downplay this achievement which smacks of bias and fan boyism.

There are shills everywhere, not just here. Ignore them, chill with the rest of us, and wait for the benchmarks. If you find that people are getting under your skin just remember that it’s the internet and treat it as such. I treat it like entertainment. Never take it seriously. Nothing here or elsewhere should be taken seriously. If you need to be reminded of this, spend a day on Reddit.

When you come back, please know that most of us may banter like a bunch of hoodlums, but it is all love and fun. 😀

 

[beginner99]

I'm still having a hard time getting excited after the NV supply issues. 0 incentive for AMD to try to gain market share by price war. The fact they upped Zen3 pricing tells us supply will be limited. And a $799 5950X needs far less 7nm silicon than a N21-based SKU will. If the shown SKU comes with 16GB of VRAM I expect at least a price of $649 if not outright matching NV.

 

[MrTeal]

If you did, why would you be an Intel supporter ? They have now failed for years. They now are the best in NOTHING, so why would you support them ???

You must not be a fan of an underperforming sports team.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I'm still having a hard time getting excited after the NV supply issues. 0 incentive for AMD to try to gain market share by price war. The fact they upped Zen3 pricing tells us supply will be limited. And a $799 5950X needs far less 7nm silicon than a N21-based SKU will. If the shown SKU comes with 16GB of VRAM I expect at least a price of $649 if not outright matching NV.

- I still suspect AMD will very slightly undercut equivalent NV products this round. With the Ryzen 5xxx series AMD knows they have a killer product on their hands but more importantly that killer product is backed up with four prior generations of well executed and we'll received product.

RTG division does not have that kind of luxury. Having the better product once might slow the competitor's inertia, but it's not enough on its own. I suspect if AMD has a competitive (within 5-10%) product on it's hands, it will undercut NV slightly, $50 or so at each bracket. AMD would have to decisively beat NV at each tier to even match prices, that's roughly where AMD's rep is at right now.

If AMD undercuts, they can still play games by limiting inventory/production until more capacity comes online to meet demand (I'm guessing they're heavily biasing Zen 3 production right now).

 

[MrTeal]

It is entirely possible that the largest die is 80CU, what was shown had less than 80CU, and it will still be the best card launched. If the >500mm² die size are accurate, it wouldn't be crazy for AMD to not ship a fully enabled die at launch.

 

[Markfw]

You must not be a fan of an underperforming sports team.

Actually, I sometimes root for the underdog. People can change almost instantly if they are motivated. Silicon can't do that.

 

[swilli89]

If AMD undercuts, they can still play games by limiting inventory/production until more capacity comes online to meet demand (I'm guessing they're heavily biasing Zen 3 production right now).

AMD to Become TSMC’s Largest 7nm Customer In 2020: Report

According to Apple Daily, AMD will become TSMC's largest 7nm customer in the second half of 2020, driven by a doubling in orders and Apple moving to 5nm.

www.tomshardware.com

If we go by this article from Jan 2020 AMD should have access to about 30,000 7nm wafer starts per month. If the Zen 3 chiplets are around the same size as Zen 2 that would yield around 650 chiplets per wafer. AMD should be able to produce quite a bit.

 

[beginner99]

If we go by this article from Jan 2020 AMD should have access to about 30,000 7nm wafer starts per month. If the Zen 3 chiplets are around the same size as Zen 2 that would yield around 650 chiplets per wafer. AMD should be able to produce quite a bit

You forgot AMD is in the 2 new consoles + zen3 + full-stack GPU. Only "good" thing is that zen3 server most likley is still half a year away as server chips are notoriously behind usually + OEMs needing to adjust their offerings. (zen3 servers become available in spring 2021, currently looking at server at work but we need it to be on this years budget so zen2 it is).

Anyway it's clear AMD will be supply constrained. Since Intel and NV are too, the only logical thing to do is to raise msrp prices instead of letting retail take the winnings.

 

[Timorous]

to be fair, they pretty much sandbagged Zen1: promised, announced "30%" IPC uplift became "50%" in reality. Hell, they kinda did with Zen3 today, right? We were looking at, and I think reading 15% up to today, but now it looks like 19%?

But yeah, CPU division is not GPU division at AMD, and they don't sandbag with Radeon.

AMD said that RDNA was a 50% perf/watt increase over Vega. When you compared it to Vega 64 at launch it was a 59% increase.

AMD said the 5700XT was about 6% faster vs the 2070 @1440p but at computerbase where they tested a lot of the same games the delta was 7% and in the games that were in AMDs presentation and the computerbase review the delta was greater than AMD said.

Not massive sandbags but it did slightly better than what AMD claimed in their event.

Does that make the card shown a cut down version, of course not but as @Glo. says it could be any SKU with the big Navi die.

I also think it might be the 72CU die because that allows AMD to show a pleasant surprise on Oct 28th which will increase mindshare. Edit to add: It is not like it mattered what AMD showed today. They could have had a card that was 2x faster than the 3080 and there are enough people that will only buy Nvidia that Nvidia will still sell everything they can make between now and 6000 launch so leaving room to show something better at their Radeon event is not a bad idea.

Since Zen and since Raja left AMD seem to be operating on a lets not over-promise mantra and on the CPU side it is serving them well and it served them well for the 5700XT launch.

 

[uzzi38]

I only looked through the last three pages of comments, ain't got time to look through everything I missed since yesterday, so if all of this was already posted bear with me will ya?

AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 ‘Big Navi’ performance tease reveals an RTX 3080 rival

During AMD's Ryzen 5000 launch even, the company provided a performance preview of its upcoming Radeon RX 6000 graphics cards, and they look ready to go toe-to-toe with Nvidia's beastly RTX 3080.

www.pcworld.com

Most importantly, Herkelman stressed that AMD didn’t state which Radeon RX 6000 graphics card ran these benchmarks. We don’t know whether these results come from the biggest Big Navi GPU, or a more modest offering. (Herkelman also said there’s still fine-tuning left to do before launch.) AMD’s Ryzen 9 5900X, the CPU used for the tease, also hasn’t been tested by independent reviewers.

So can we stop the stupid argument that there's absolutely no way AMD did not show their best now? AMD could have showed literally anything they wanted to. Ultimately, we have nothing to base any speculation on. We could be looking at AMD's best. We could also just as easily be looking at the lowest end N21 flavour. I personally don't care either way though, it looks to me like they're roughly at 2080Ti+30% performance currently so I'm happy either way, my predictions for both Ampere and RDNA2 were rather close to reality :^P

While I'm at it, I'll also post a bit more detail on Borderlands 3. The game at Badass Quality does favour AMD quite a lot. The 5700XT lands between the 2070 Super and 2080 with this graphics preset.

HOWEVER.

Refer to Digital Foundries 3090 review, and you'll clearly hear them stating that BL3 - which they also tested at Badass Quality at 4K - is one of the best case scenario games they tested for comparing generational uplift from Turing to Ampere. Meaning, we can't technically say the game actually favours RDNA but rather it just performs relatively worse on Turing.

 

[vissarix]

Last few pages I just read are just peak AT forums and why I only come around for big launches these days. Why all the negativity?

—AMD shows a very vague preview that by all accounts places SOME variant (whether that's very top-end or not the top-end) of big Navi in the exact same performance class as 3080.

Multiple sites show the BL 3 score as even with the 3080 and on Gears 5 a few sites places them as even and a few show the 3080 like 5-10% faster. On the MW score I had some sites showing Big Navi as winning by 10%.

I think for now that's as far as anyone needs or can even go in terms of assumption. Again, who cares about 5-10%? People love to express more or less this sentiment of "well 5% doesn't matter to ME but... OTHERS care about halo-status!"

Can a human being sit down at computer A and B and see a difference between 5% in frame times? No.

AMD showed a card on pre-release drivers more or less matching a 3080 at 4k (where cpu doesn't really matter). And instead of excitement it's this weird defensive argument trying to downplay this achievement which smacks of bias and fan boyism.

You talk about bias and then proceeds with who cares about 5 or 10% difference? Funny guy !!!

Lets get real, AMD showed best case scenario of their flagship gpu and it performs worse than a RTX 3080, end of the story. You can try to spin this as much as you can but in the end thats what it is.

Where are the guys with their projected RTX 3090 +15%??

Another hype train brutally derailed?

 

[mohit9206]

The card i am most excited about (but still cannot afford) is the 40CU model. I hope its really good on price/performance chart.

 

[zinfamous]

It should be quite a bit faster actually. wqhd is probably close to 60% of the pixels. I know my dqhd is still like 80-90% ish.

You're right. But I like to sandbag myself.

 

[DDH]

You talk about bias and then proceeds with who cares about 5 or 10% difference? Funny guy !!!

Lets get real, AMD showed best case scenario of their flagship gpu and it performs worse than a RTX 3080, end of the story. You can try to spin this as much as you can but in the end thats what it is.

Where are the guys with their projected RTX 3090 +15%??

Another hype train brutally derailed?

You can't be serious? Detrailed? They are toe to toe with the 3080, with probably 16gb ram. All they need now is to price it the same and have good stock and it will be an absolute home run what ever card it is

 

[Glo.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1314512590442291200

Paul from RGT, speculates, tha the GPU they showed was 6800XT, because based on his own info, 6800XT was supposed to compete with 3080, and the GPU demoed - has around that performance.

So in this scenario it might be either 72 CU version, or 64 CU version.

 

[kurosaki]

Well, there were AMD supporters during their dark years of Bulldozer era. There is nothing wrong with people getting what they want lol.
Even if you get 5900x or 10900k, it isn't going to drastically change their computing experience regardless of what they choose, especially when your main application is gaming.

Hey, Bulldozer was a great dual core design, with yyyuge IPC advantages, over Prescott. Also, most importantly, jet fuel can't melt steel beams!!

 

[JustMe21]

I wouldn't be surprised to see AMD price their 3080 competitor at $699. AMD forgets why people like them, because of their lower prices as-well-as the performance, so when they start pricing like Intel and Nvidia, they become just another brand and that is what hurts them because we know that brand recognition with Intel and Nvidia is much better and Intel will catch up eventually while Nvidia dedicates more R&D dollars to GPUs, so AMD will eventually fall behind again. AMD has hit the spotlight with Zen 2, but their higher pricing of Zen 3 is putting quite a few people off, especially considering it's higher price without a CPU cooler vs lower priced Zen 2 with one. Granted, a lot of people say don't bother with the included CPU cooler, but the reality is that the savings of not providing a CPU cooler should go into the processor price, so basically, it should stay around $399.