Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[Charles Kozierok]

Obama won Colorado by 7 points in 2008, and I doubt that Romney can turn that around with robocalls.

Are you sure they were robocalls? They could have been members of the Romney clan.

 

[jackstar7]

It's funny talking with people who cherry pick polls in real life.

Other person: "Well, Romneys tied with Obama Pennsylvania; clearly, Obama is in trouble"

Me: "You're cherry picking polls Romneys is down in almost all of them"

him: "nu-uh"

*shows him list of recent polls on my phone all but one tied*

Him "Well, Romney was going to lose Pennsylvania anyway it's not important; I'm going to go back to talking about the national polls like they matter " (where he's also cherry picking)

I feel as though just one small part of that isn't right...

 

[woolfe9999]

Silver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".

He's not adjusting the number directly. He's adding polling data and the number is spit out the other end. Up to now, he'd been adding the previous days in the morning, but it seems he's updating it almost in real time now. It's currently at 92.2%. The funny thing is that Ohio is not shown any more unless you use the drop down menu, meaning his model considers it out of reasonable contention.

I think he's out on a limb predicting Obama winning the PV by 2.7%. That seems very unlikely. I still think the state polls are showing an Obama bias of 1-2 points, but that won't be enough to save Romney at this point, not with these margins.

 

[Blackjack200]

You have to go back 20 polls in VA to find one that favors Romney. The polls there showed a dead heat a week ago, so I'd say yes, it looks like he'll carry VA, perhaps even a greater chance there than in CO.

Wow, I knew Virginia was a real possibility for Obama, but I didn't realize the polling had actually widened there in the last few days. I think this explains the 538 odds going up more than anything else. I think an Obama win in Virginia puts us to bed early.

 

[buckshot24]

Hannity says 2-4 point win for Romney, sorry libs. It's over.

 

[Phokus]

We'll see how it plays out, but I have to say that Obama's ground game has been better in metro Denver. When the Obama campaign called, it was a real person, and real people came to the door, too. After I sent in my ballot, they quit. There was a young woman out front yesterday afternoon, obviously a canvasser, clipboard & all. I went out & spoke with her, turns out she was from the Obama campaign, and we weren't on her list because we'd already voted.

When I went back inside, the phone rang- another Romney robocall. The robocalls from the Romney campaign & the RNC have been incessant, and annoying- not once have I encountered a real person pitching Romney. One of my coworkers commented on that in the lunchroom, with wide agreement as to the assholish nature of the Romney campaign...

Obama won Colorado by 7 points in 2008, and I doubt that Romney can turn that around with robocalls.

Sometimes i wish my state was a battleground state so we could get some love here, lol. But after reading your state, uh, no thanks.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Hannity says 2-4 point win for Romney, sorry libs. It's over.

This Republican put $100 on Obama. Looks like I'll be profiting. I don't see how anyone serious can predict a Romney victory. I'm disappointed but that's just how things are.

 

[Blackjack200]

Hannity says 2-4 point win for Romney, sorry libs. It's over.

Damn

Congrats.

Sometimes i wish my state was a battleground state so we could get some love here, lol. But after reading your state, uh, no thanks.

It's fucking hell. Remember all those stories about how Romney was going to contest Pennsylvania, and put a couple million dollars into ads there? Well, that spending (and Obama's counter spending) has blanketed the air with ads. You can see 3, 4, 5 political ads in a row, sometimes consecutive ads for the same candidate.

Now, just imagine that Romney and Obama have spent about hundred times as much money in Ohio.

And yeah, Obama is way more organized. I got a single mailing from his campaign - they listed the polling place for my address on the back of it. I'm sure if I haven't voted by about 11:00 they'll call my cell phone, but since I'm voting early in the morning tomorrow, I'll never hear from them. It's a very well oiled machine.

 

[cganesh75]

Sometimes i wish my state was a battleground state so we could get some love here, lol. But after reading your state, uh, no thanks.

Hey you are more than welcome to swap with me and live in Florida. I have had enough of the political ads and calls.

 

[jackstar7]

Hannity says 2-4 point win for Romney, sorry libs. It's over.

I believe lots of people still have to vote tomorrow. And that doesn't sound like an EC prediction, so it's pretty meaningless.

 

[buckshot24]

I believe lots of people still have to vote tomorrow. And that doesn't sound like an EC prediction, so it's pretty meaningless.

SILENCE!

Hannity has spoken!

 

[jackstar7]

SILENCE!

Hannity has spoken!

Wait... so he's going to stop now? I might trade my ability to type here for his ongoing silence...

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Hannity says 2-4 point win for Romney, sorry libs. It's over.

My ass begs to differ.

 

[buckshot24]

My ass begs to differ.

F*ck your ass.

Wait a minute....

 

[jackstar7]

538's measure of Romney's chances to take Florida -- What else: 47%.

 

[evident]

romney was a mile away from my house yesterday in bucks county and there was a huge traffic jam when i was going to see my parents for dinner. cant wait to vote first thing tomorrow morning against that creep!

 

[Engineer]

Dixville Notch, NH in with the first votes:

Obama: 5
Romney: 5

 

[Blackjack200]

romney was a mile away from my house yesterday in bucks county and there was a huge traffic jam when i was going to see my parents for dinner. cant wait to vote first thing tomorrow morning against that creep!

I drove right past that farm at 3:00 in the afternoon that day getting on to route 1, and I had no idea there was anything going on.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

I drove right past that farm at 3:00 in the afternoon that day getting on to route 1, and I had no idea there was anything going on.

You couldn't tell evident was visiting his parents for dinner? Clearly you don't pay close attention to your surroundings.

 

[Blackjack200]

You couldn't tell evident was visiting his parents for dinner? Clearly you don't pay close attention to your surroundings.

 

[Screech]

Dixville Notch, NH in with the first votes:

Obama: 5
Romney: 5

I bet dixville is full of assholes.





...



...



...ok, I'll stop....

 

[evident]

I drove right past that farm at 3:00 in the afternoon that day getting on to route 1, and I had no idea there was anything going on.

we left around 4PM going from newtown to get onto 95S. the entire bypass was crawling. once we got into 95S the 95N exit into newtown/yardley was backed up a mile as well. local news said about 25000 people showed up.

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

Dixville Notch, NH in with the first votes:

Obama: 5
Romney: 5

Well that settles it. It's going to be 269 to 269.

 

[abaez]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...o-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/

92%.. GG

 

[Farang]

Who could have beaten Obama this year? Huntsman looks good on paper but I don't think he has the political skills. Jeb Bush seems to be the strongest on the Republican bench (especially with an appeal to Latino voters), but his name is toxic. Christie sort of flopped on the national stage, but a case could be made.

Then again you could make the argument the electorate was open to an alternative, but Romney was precisely the worst man to run in these times (plutocrat after an economic crisis caused by Wall Street). I think the trajectory of the race shows he never really had a chance. His specific weakness on the auto bailout might not have cost your average Republican.