Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[Moonbeam]

Link: http://election.princeton.edu/

I like the part where they figure out Romeny's chances in 2 or 3 quadrillion ways and give him almost none.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Silver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".

 

[Jhhnn]

I wasn't presenting my judgement that Obama is a disaster as a topic of debate. Furthermore I respond to smugness and arrogance with the level of discourse it deserves.

Besides, maybe he'd enjoy making sex with himself.

You present it as an underlying premise of why you favor Romney, as if you have actual reasons rather than mere partisan faith. So far, you merely confirm that your opinion is purely faith based, something that needed clarification.

Obviously, you don't need reasons to believe that, just more unquestioned beliefs at a deeper level. That's now clear.

 

[Farang]

Silver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".

Wow, surprisingly bullish on CO, VA, and FL. I had thought the three to be coin flips, with FL possibly leaning Romney.

 

[Doppel]

Silver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".

I thought the race was tied up? A dead-heat? lawls

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Well, Silver never had it a dead heat. But he's clearly not shying away from his belief that the polls show Obama ahead. He's either going to look really good or really bad in 24-36 hours.

 

[Doppel]

Well, Silver never had it a dead heat. But he's clearly not shying away from his belief that the polls show Obama ahead. He's either going to look really good or really bad in 24-36 hours.

Yeah, won't most of us? I've pinned all of my aplomb upon his percentages. I enjoy quite heartily telling people who severely Romney will lose. If he won I'd blame it on silver ;D

 

[buckshot24]

Wow, surprisingly bullish on CO, VA, and FL. I had thought the three to be coin flips, with FL possibly leaning Romney.

Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.

Silver has years of experience as a statistician and is a professional poll-watcher with a sophisticated mathematical model based on analysis of hundreds of polls.

And you have your "gut feeling", based on your own desperate desire for Romney to win.

Which to trust more.... tough call.

 

[buckshot24]

You present it as an underlying premise of why you favor Romney, as if you have actual reasons rather than mere partisan faith. So far, you merely confirm that your opinion is purely faith based, something that needed clarification.

Obviously, you don't need reasons to believe that, just more unquestioned beliefs at a deeper level. That's now clear.

Of course I have reasons why I think Obama sucks. I just don't want to turn this thread into that. You've been around long enough, you know how this works.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.

How sure are you? I'm guessing at least one will go Romney (probably Florida), possibly two, hell, maybe all three. But I'm not certain of it. I'm not certain of all three of them going Obama either. But I wouldn't wager on it either way.

 

[buckshot24]

Silver has years of experience as a statistician and is a professional poll-watcher with a sophisticated mathematical model based on analysis of hundreds of polls.

And you have your "gut feeling", based on your own desperate desire for Romney to win.

Which to trust more.... tough call.

I couldn't care less if you trust me, trust your ass for all I care. We'll know tomorrow.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I couldn't care less if you trust me, trust your ass for all I care.

Thanks, I think I will.

 

[First]

Of course. That's the real concern, obviously.

Well that is extraordinarily unlikely so I really would not stress it. Basically not a realistic scenario, Not one that could likely stay secret for very long.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Thanks, I think I will.

I just talked to my ass. It thinks Obama wins CO, possibly VA, and Romney takes FL.

I bet my ass has a better track record than you do in 36 hours.

 

[Jadow]

before the election, my final post is this:

GO MITT!

 

[TraumaRN]

Wow, surprisingly bullish on CO, VA, and FL. I had thought the three to be coin flips, with FL possibly leaning Romney.

Virginia and Colorado have rebounded towards Obama a bit in the last week. I think that explains his bullish forecast. Florida I think is truly a tossup.

 

[crashtestdummy]

Well, Silver never had it a dead heat. But he's clearly not shying away from his belief that the polls show Obama ahead. He's either going to look really good or really bad in 24-36 hours.

He's not doing anything. He built the model back in April, and has been explicit about not changing anything. (When there's a factor he wants to explore, he'll re-run the model with the changes, but it never becomes part of the main model.) The only thing he does is enter the polls into the database. His bed was made six months ago, he's just been lying in it.

 

[Balt]

Given the last couple of weeks of polling and looking at Nate's model, I've been pretty confident that Obama will pull it off (wish I had an intrade account).

Will be surprised and laugh if Obama really does take Florida though. Definitely overkill as far the electoral college is concerned.

 

[jackstar7]

I wasn't presenting my judgement that Obama is a disaster as a topic of debate. Furthermore I respond to smugness and arrogance with the level of discourse it deserves.

Besides, maybe he'd enjoy making sex with himself.

And here I think we were all hoping you were something more than ordinary.

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

It's funny talking with people who cherry pick polls in real life.

Other person: "Well, Romneys tied with Obama Pennsylvania; clearly, Obama is in trouble"

Me: "You're cherry picking polls Romneys is down in almost all of them"

him: "nu-uh"

*shows him list of recent polls on my phone all but one tied*

Him "Well, Romney was going to lose Pennsylvania anyway it's not important; I'm going to go back to talking about the national polls like they matter " (where he's also cherry picking)

 

[Charles Kozierok]

He's not doing anything. He built the model back in April, and has been explicit about not changing anything. (When there's a factor he wants to explore, he'll re-run the model with the changes, but it never becomes part of the main model.) The only thing he does is enter the polls into the database. His bed was made six months ago, he's just been lying in it.

Yes, I wasn't trying to imply that he changed anything. Just the opposite.

 

[woolfe9999]

Virginia and Colorado have rebounded towards Obama a bit in the last week. I think that explains his bullish forecast. Florida I think is truly a tossup.

You have to go back 20 polls in VA to find one that favors Romney. The polls there showed a dead heat a week ago, so I'd say yes, it looks like he'll carry VA, perhaps even a greater chance there than in CO.

 

[buckshot24]

I just talked to my ass. It thinks Obama wins CO, possibly VA, and Romney takes FL.

I bet my ass has a better track record than you do in 36 hours.

See, that's better! :thumbsup:

We'll know that I'm right within 24 hours, those states will go early.

 

[Jhhnn]

Virginia and Colorado have rebounded towards Obama a bit in the last week. I think that explains his bullish forecast. Florida I think is truly a tossup.

We'll see how it plays out, but I have to say that Obama's ground game has been better in metro Denver. When the Obama campaign called, it was a real person, and real people came to the door, too. After I sent in my ballot, they quit. There was a young woman out front yesterday afternoon, obviously a canvasser, clipboard & all. I went out & spoke with her, turns out she was from the Obama campaign, and we weren't on her list because we'd already voted.

When I went back inside, the phone rang- another Romney robocall. The robocalls from the Romney campaign & the RNC have been incessant, and annoying- not once have I encountered a real person pitching Romney. One of my coworkers commented on that in the lunchroom, with wide agreement as to the assholish nature of the Romney campaign...

Obama won Colorado by 7 points in 2008, and I doubt that Romney can turn that around with robocalls.