I like the part where they figure out Romeny's chances in 2 or 3 quadrillion ways and give him almost none.
I wasn't presenting my judgement that Obama is a disaster as a topic of debate. Furthermore I respond to smugness and arrogance with the level of discourse it deserves.
Besides, maybe he'd enjoy making sex with himself.
Silver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".
I thought the race was tied up? A dead-heat? lawlsSilver just updated with a big spike up for Obama, from 86% to 91%. He's "all in".
Yeah, won't most of us? I've pinned all of my aplomb upon his percentages. I enjoy quite heartily telling people who severely Romney will lose. If he won I'd blame it on silver ;DWell, Silver never had it a dead heat. But he's clearly not shying away from his belief that the polls show Obama ahead. He's either going to look really good or really bad in 24-36 hours.
Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.Wow, surprisingly bullish on CO, VA, and FL. I had thought the three to be coin flips, with FL possibly leaning Romney.
Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.
Of course I have reasons why I think Obama sucks. I just don't want to turn this thread into that. You've been around long enough, you know how this works.You present it as an underlying premise of why you favor Romney, as if you have actual reasons rather than mere partisan faith. So far, you merely confirm that your opinion is purely faith based, something that needed clarification.
Obviously, you don't need reasons to believe that, just more unquestioned beliefs at a deeper level. That's now clear.
Those will all go Romney. He's wrong.
I couldn't care less if you trust me, trust your ass for all I care. We'll know tomorrow.Silver has years of experience as a statistician and is a professional poll-watcher with a sophisticated mathematical model based on analysis of hundreds of polls.
And you have your "gut feeling", based on your own desperate desire for Romney to win.
Which to trust more.... tough call.
I couldn't care less if you trust me, trust your ass for all I care.
Of course. That's the real concern, obviously.
Thanks, I think I will.
Wow, surprisingly bullish on CO, VA, and FL. I had thought the three to be coin flips, with FL possibly leaning Romney.
Well, Silver never had it a dead heat. But he's clearly not shying away from his belief that the polls show Obama ahead. He's either going to look really good or really bad in 24-36 hours.
I wasn't presenting my judgement that Obama is a disaster as a topic of debate. Furthermore I respond to smugness and arrogance with the level of discourse it deserves.
Besides, maybe he'd enjoy making sex with himself.
He's not doing anything. He built the model back in April, and has been explicit about not changing anything. (When there's a factor he wants to explore, he'll re-run the model with the changes, but it never becomes part of the main model.) The only thing he does is enter the polls into the database. His bed was made six months ago, he's just been lying in it.
Virginia and Colorado have rebounded towards Obama a bit in the last week. I think that explains his bullish forecast. Florida I think is truly a tossup.
See, that's better! :thumbsup:I just talked to my ass. It thinks Obama wins CO, possibly VA, and Romney takes FL.
I bet my ass has a better track record than you do in 36 hours.
Virginia and Colorado have rebounded towards Obama a bit in the last week. I think that explains his bullish forecast. Florida I think is truly a tossup.