Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[xBiffx]

MN in play?

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/176113071.html?refer=y

I still can't get over how many polls right now have Obama at 47%. Too funny. On the serious side, you don't win reelection when you can't break through that 50% barrier, especially with so many independent voters out there. Its telling that a state like MN is within the margin of error for a poll that still oversampled Democrats although not a much as the last poll they conducted.

This is starting to look more like another 2000 election.

 

[jpeyton]

MN in play?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mn/minnesota_romney_vs_obama-1823.html

When Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen are putting Obama up +3 and +5, you know things are looking pretty bleak for Romney in MN.

No, MN is not in play.

In other news, Romney is losing ground in VA:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

One step forward, two steps back. People won't elect a flip-flopper: http://youtu.be/OTC-MWsCpX0

 

[xBiffx]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mn/minnesota_romney_vs_obama-1823.html

When Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen are putting Obama up +3 and +5, you know things are looking pretty bleak for Romney in MN.

No, MN is not in play.

In other news, Romney is losing ground in VA:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

One step forward, two steps back. People won't elect a flip-flopper: http://youtu.be/OTC-MWsCpX0

Obama carried MN by over 10 pts last time around. All of these polls have it within their margin of error. Independents are breaking for Romney this time around as will the undecided as they usually break with the challenger. I'd say this makes MN a battleground in the very least.

Virginia has shown almost no change. The two candidates have been within 2-3 pts of each other all along.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

MN in play?

AZ in play?

(No to both.)

 

[chowderhead]

I will believe Minnesota is in play if any of the candidates spend any time there. Romney is spending about 30k ads which bleeds into Wisconsin. The reason is that Romney knows he is behind in key swing states and is desperate to find a new path with 10 days to go.

 

[Carfax83]

Independents are breaking for Romney this time around as will the undecided as they usually break with the challenger.

This is something I'd like to know.

As someone who isn't poll savvy, every poll I've seen shows Romney with a solid lead when it comes to independent voters, in the doubles even.

However, most media outlets don't seem to be emphasizing this as much as I would have thought.

Wasn't the 2008 election decided by independents, demonstrating the importance of that voting bloc?

 

[jackstar7]

This is something I'd like to know.

As someone who isn't poll savvy, every poll I've seen shows Romney with a solid lead when it comes to independent voters, in the doubles even.

However, most media outlets don't seem to be emphasizing this as much as I would have thought.

Wasn't the 2008 election decided by independents, demonstrating the importance of that voting bloc?

It's possible that this cycle has led that block to be smaller in numbers as the polarization has continued for the last 4 years in its usual unrelenting fashion.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

I suspect the "independent" block has grown with "former" Republicans just not comfortable sharing the same label as the Tea Party and Evangelical base.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I suspect the "independent" block has grown with "former" Republicans just not comfortable sharing the same label as the Tea Party and Evangelical base.

This is what I've read as well. More recently -- in the last couple of months -- there has been a move away from independents and towards both parties in the polling.

 

[Todd33]

Obama carried MN by over 10 pts last time around. All of these polls have it within their margin of error. Independents are breaking for Romney this time around as will the undecided as they usually break with the challenger. I'd say this makes MN a battleground in the very least.

Virginia has shown almost no change. The two candidates have been within 2-3 pts of each other all along.

Keep dreaming.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/

Minn is at 94% for Obama, hence Romney is not contesting it.

 

[xBiffx]

Keep dreaming.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/

Minn is at 94% for Obama, hence Romney is not contesting it.

94%...who is dreaming. Oh right, Silver, the man of the hour for the liberal cause.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

94%...who is dreaming. Oh right, Silver, the man of the hour for the liberal cause.

Silver's numbers are backed up by polls and analysis. What's your view backed up by?

Nothing.

Intrade also has Minn at 90% for Obama. I guess they are all liberals too.

 

[jackstar7]

Oh right, Silver, the man of the hour for the liberal cause.

Why do you hate math?

 

[randomrogue]

9 days to the election and Romney is still losing ground in the polls.

Those polls all have to be wrong for Romney to win. Won't that make a great story though?

 

[Pens1566]

94%...who is dreaming. Oh right, Silver, the man of the hour for the liberal cause.

Ha. I lol'd

 

[Farang]

Romney had a not-bad day today with a poll from Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News showing him tied with Obama in Ohio.

Personally I don't think much of it, but it was not-bad news for Romney. Nothing else that happened really mattered. As an Obama supporter I was encouraged the the outlier Washington Post poll showing Kaine +8 ahead, which also bodes well for Obama.

 

[Balt]

I think a few of these critical states might be 'too close to call' on election night (particularly Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado). I don't think I'll stay up all night on Nov. 6 hoping to hear results, though it will be hard to sleep.

 

[jpeyton]

On Silver's EV distribution chart, the biggest probability spikes are for Obama at 300, 330 and 340 EV, with 330 being the largest.

Romney might run up huge margins in solid red southern states and keep the national popular vote close, but Obama is more likely to win the lion's share of swing states and handily defeat him in the electoral college.

 

[First]

Three most accurate polling firms in the last election (PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA) latest polls have Florida at +1 Obama, +2 Romney, +1 Obama, respectively. With the SurveyUSA poll being the lone one before the 3rd debate.

Overall, looks like Florida is going to come down to the wire.

 

[GMC12]

Rasmussen 10/3 - 10/5 Obama 47 Romney 49
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

CLARUS POLL: BEFORE vs. AFTER DEBATE
BEFORE (conducted Tuesday): Obama over Romney +4
AFTER (conducted Thursday): Romney over Obama +1
http://clarusrg.com/content/october-5-2012

Gallup still has Obama by 5 and the rest of the polls have yet to update since the debates.

Polls not Important to me.we need just 4 more years

 

[zinfamous]

If I am not busy, I talk to the political solicitors that call me.

Observation #1 - Not a single one of the Obama callers are enthused. Not a single one. They drone on and on and on and come across as zombies. I kid you not. I thought this was due to some kind of SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder,) but they are not even calling from Chicago. Then I thought they were all pulling some kind of a Halloween prank, you know, "I am a zombie, and I am calling on behalf of the Obama Victory Campaign." Which would have been pretty cool, though I still wouldn't have given them a dime since I figure I pay enough in taxes. But then I figured out that they were just going through the motions. Now, I've done telephone sales and I know how hard it is to keep dialing, but c'mon, at least make an effort to convince me that I would be backing a winner and not some chump.

Observation #2 - The Romney callers are super enthused. Man oh man, they want to hit me up for $500, then when I say no they tell me they will split the difference to $250. One time I got one guy down to seeing if I would pledge $5 after ten minutes of this. I was just pulling his chain (he was from Minnesota, which is quite blue, but not as blue as the People's Democratic Socialist State of Maryland) but we had some laughs and I pledged $100 so he would make his personal goal.

Based solely on the observed enthusiasm differences between Obama zombie callers and Romney hyperactive callers, I am making an early call that this election will go Romney/Ryan.

ROFL

Pedophile, since I am not a child I am safer with him.

good call.

:thumbsup:

 

[randomrogue]

Fairly sure Rasumussen has a poor track record.

 

[Doppel]

Three most accurate polling firms in the last election (PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA) latest polls have Florida at +1 Obama, +2 Romney, +1 Obama, respectively. With the SurveyUSA poll being the lone one before the 3rd debate.

Overall, looks like Florida is going to come down to the wire.

Even our beloved 538 has florida 62% for Romney right now, so odds do appear in his favor.

 

[shortylickens]

I wonder what happens if someone hangs up in the middle of the call? If I were a Republican I'd hang up upon hearing

"Which of the Presidential candidates do you
trust more to make sure the wealthiest
Americans pay their fair share of taxes: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?"

I'd get into a debate.
"Dont the wealthy already pay much more than their fair share?"

 

[Charles Kozierok]

It's definitely true that how questions are asked matters. It's long been a source of controversy -- I've seen far worse examples than the one Farang mentioned.