Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[shortylickens]

As for the above discussion, right now every type of poll shows obama leading in Minnesota. The only difference is whether its something like 60/40 or 90/10, but he's got minnesota.

Virginia is still swinging back and forth but I suspect they will eventually go with Obama. He's made it very clear he intends to let illegals stay and TONS of people here like exploiting the cheap labor. Both the middle class for their lawns and cheap nanny's, and powerful businessmen worried about their bottom line.

 

[Todd33]

94%...who is dreaming. Oh right, Silver, the man of the hour for the liberal cause.

You mean the guys who's business is to predict elections? Who livelihood and source of income solely rests on making accurate predictions? He does not benefit from being wrong.

 

[Farang]

Hey! Some good news for Romney today with the +2 OH Rasmussen poll. On balance somewhat neutral given the other polls show tie (1) or Obama up (2) that came out yesterday.

 

[Ryan]

I can't wait to see how accurate FiveThirtyEight is this election cycle

 

[xBiffx]

You mean the guys who's business is to predict elections? Who livelihood and source of income solely rests on making accurate predictions? He does not benefit from being wrong.

You are right. In the sports world.......

 

[Charles Kozierok]

You are right. In the sports world.......

Silver has been in the political forecasting business for years.

You know, if you want to criticize a guy, it would be best to start by at least getting the basics right.

 

[TraumaRN]

What is going to really be a valid question is how this storm changes the race. Both campaigns essentially stopped campaigning and some of the negative ads have been pulled as well. Could be the true October surprise.

 

[Pens1566]

What is going to really be a valid question is how this storm changes the race. Both campaigns essentially stopped campaigning and some of the negative ads have been pulled as well. Could be the true October surprise.

It's already started with the "Romney wants to abolish FEMA" lines.

 

[First]

What is going to really be a valid question is how this storm changes the race. Both campaigns essentially stopped campaigning and some of the negative ads have been pulled as well. Could be the true October surprise.

Would be a nice way to end this whole disgrace of a campaign fight, frankly. Ending it on a more positive note where Americans come together a little bit more to help support and rescue any victims of a truly non-partisan issue we're all affected by; mother nature. The fact that we might get significantly fewer negative ads would be wonderful as well.

It's already started with the "Romney wants to abolish FEMA" lines.

Yep.

 

[First]

Fairly sure Rasumussen has a poor track record.

They were definitely Republican-leaning in the 2010 election, for sure, but in the last presidential one they were very accurate, along with SurveyUSA and PPP. Rasmussen's right-leaning findings are of course well known though, no doubt.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

It's already started with the "Romney wants to abolish FEMA" lines.

Which, as far as I've been able to tell so far, is bullshit.

 

[randomrogue]

The Democrats benefit the most by voter turnout so if it's bad Obama could potentially lose simply due to the storm.

The Governors are swearing that won't happen though and people will be able to vote.

 

[buckshot24]

Silver is a numbers cruncher.

If you look at his weighting for Ohio Polls he gives a poll from August 21 by Quinnipiac a weight of 0.602

As a comparison PPP 10/28 poll weighted at 1.2 a Gravis poll from 10/27 1.00

He doesn't have the Rasmussen +2 Ohio poll in his model yet, I'm interested in how he weights it.

One thing in the national polls that has to concern the Obama camp is that RCP has him averaged at 46.7%. A week out and he is no where near 50% Bush was at 48.8% at this time in 2004 Kerry was sitting at 46.2%

Furthermore the Gallup poll doesn't weight their polls by an expected party identification, they just post what people answer.

According to their polling in 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 39 to 29 margin. Now (October 1-24) there is actually a Republican lead by a 36-35 margin. Independents dropped from 31 to 29.

In comparison the 2004 poll had Republicans lead by 39-37.

If these polls accurately represent turnout for 2012 then this will be a Romney near landslide.

 

[First]

this will be a Romney near landslide.

lulz.

 

[randomrogue]

If these polls accurately represent turnout for 2012 then this will be a Romney near landslide.

I've already voted. Lots of people have already voted. Did they vote for Romney or Obama?

Your wishful thinking is really cute. Makes me giggle.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

It's already started with the "Romney wants to abolish FEMA" lines.

Those started in the Republican primary. When Romney said them.

 

[buckshot24]

lulz.

You're a dishonest beautiful being.

Too crude, for no good reason. These kind of replies will stop here and now. You're next such post . . . indeed anyone's next such post, will get you or them time off.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[xBiffx]

You're a dishonest beautiful being.

lulz.

 

[buckshot24]

I've already voted. Lots of people have already voted. Did they vote for Romney or Obama?

Your wishful thinking is really cute. Makes me giggle.

The early voters are incorporated into the polling.

 

[Todd33]

<cherry picking and wishful thinking omitted>

If these polls accurately represent turnout for 2012 then this will be a Romney near landslide.

So if a few cherry picked pro-Romney polls are correct Romney will win. If everyone else is right he will lose. Well I can live with those odds.

 

[buckshot24]

Pew just released and they have it tied 47-47.

They have independents +8 Romney 48-40. This is more evidence that if the Gallup party identification is correct this will be a near landslide for Romney.

Pew weighted their poll to have a higher percentage of Democrats vs Republicans vs Independents.

If you "unweight" the numbers (ie. take percentages of who they actually polled) Romney has a 2.1 point lead when you exclude the undecided vote.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

If you "unweight" the numbers (ie. take percentages of who they actually polled) Romney has a 2.1 point lead when you exclude the undecided vote.

Good gravy.

You DO know that the entire point of likely voter models is to account for such variance? Among registered voters, Obama is up by 2 points.

You're double-correcting.

And even so, it doesn't matter what the national numbers say. Only the state polls.

Well, except for trend. And there, Pew shows a 4-point swing among LV towards Obama.

 

[First]

this will be a near landslide for Romney.

lol troll.

 

[woolfe9999]

Bottom line is, you can adjust every single one of Silver's state polling averages by 2 points in Romney's direction, and Obama still takes Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada and wins the election. And bear in mind that those averages are already smaller than the raw data because he adjusts them to reflect the PV polling being more in Romney's favor.

Silver shows data from prior elections and there has been only one case since 1980 where the average of a state poll did not predict the outcome in that state, so long as the margin was greater than 2 points. This is the case in Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

I'm not ready to call this for Obama yet, but if these state polling numbers hold up as of election day, I think he'll win it.

 

[buckshot24]

So if a few cherry picked pro-Romney polls are correct Romney will win. If everyone else is right he will lose. Well I can live with those odds.

It isn't "everyone". There is agreement with other sources. There is also consensus that Romney is wining the independent vote over many different polls. The only way Obama wins is if there are more Democrats who vote that makes up the independent gap (pew has it at +8 Romney, IDB has it at +8 Romney, Monmouth +19 Romney). If however there are as many Democrats as Republicans who vote then Romney would win walking away.