Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[ElMonoDelMar]

If the queen had balls, she'd be the king.

I've never heard this before, but I am going to make it my mission in life to utter this phrase whenever relevant.

 

[jpeyton]

http://youtu.be/hRJa2OaiwWw

 

[dmcowen674]

He's right, though. You calling this as a possible "landslide" for Romney is absurd.

That would represent an unprecedented failure of polling.

A win, perhaps. A landslide for either candidate is off the table at this point.

Polling does not take into account huge events like Sandy.

This storm could put Pennsylvania in the Republican win column for the first time in 24 years.

 

[ivwshane]

Polling does not take into account huge events like Sandy.

This storm could put Pennsylvania in the Republican win column for the first time in 24 years.

Why would that happen?

 

[Agent11]

Republican voter suppression of displaced victims of a natural disaster. I wouldn't put it past them.

 

[Doppel]

Almost there now and 538 has obama near 80% again. Romney's silly little attempt to gain the presidency will all be over soon.

 

[rudeguy]

Almost there now and 538 has obama near 80% again. Romney's silly little attempt to gain the presidency will all be over soon.

Quoted for future reference

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Very good poll for Obama overnight, showing him +5/+2/+1 in OH/VA/FL. If that's true, he wins easily next week.

Very good poll for Romney in MI, showing him only down 3 points. If MI is really competitive, he could win next week.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

PPP +5 Obama in IA and WI.

 

[xBiffx]

MI within the margin of error.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121030/POLITICS01/210300442/1374/politi

PA within the margin of error.

http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/new-poll-shows-obama-casey-still-up-in-pa-1.1396339

We have already seen polls where the same is true for other, more battleground, states. But yeah, its over.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Ah, they're breaking out "within the margin of error". One of the early signs that the race is actually pretty much done.

Coming soon: anecdotal examples of past elections where the polls have been entirely wrong.

 

[xBiffx]

Ah, they're breaking out "within the margin of error". One of the early signs that the race is actually pretty much done.

Coming soon: anecdotal examples of past elections where the polls have been entirely wrong.

Except PA and MI aren't considered battlegrounds by many of the liberal pollsters. They are considered completely safe. So keep spinning away.

Guarantee you that a lot of the polls are wrong this go around just like before. Easy prediction there considering they are all over the place. Gonna be hard for them all to be right.

 

[Blackjack200]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama pulls away by a point or two in the final week. People are being reminded what real leadership looks like, and they are probably asking themselves if they want a guy like Romney in charge when serious problems come up.

 

[xBiffx]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama pulls away by a point or two in the final week. People are being reminded what real leadership looks like, and they are probably asking themselves if they want a guy like Romney in charge when serious problems come up.

Good point. Obviously the answer to that question is no.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Except PA and MI aren't considered battlegrounds by many of the liberal pollsters. They are considered completely safe. So keep spinning away.

Well, not "completely safe", but yes, safe.

The thing: if you have a bunch of polls and some are in the margin of error and some are not, but none show the other guy ahead, that's not a battleground. It's just a reasonably close state.

Guarantee you that a lot of the polls are wrong this go around just like before. Easy prediction there considering they are all over the place. Gonna be hard for them all to be right.

Define "a lot". If more than one or two states go against the polling averages, I'll be surprised.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Roanoke College R+5 in VA.

 

[TraumaRN]

MI within the margin of error.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121030/POLITICS01/210300442/1374/politi

Ahhh yes the Detroit News...which happened to endorse Romney for president. Yeah I'm sure an unbiased sample. Makes them sell a lot more papers when the race for Michigan looks tight.

Fact of the matter is Michigan will be closer than in 08, but as a Michigan resident it's not going to Romney. Too many people in this area remember the Let Detroit Go Bankrupt line. The UAW still has lots of pull in this state and we are just too Democratic leaning of a state.

 

[TraumaRN]

Roanoke College R+5 in VA.

That one strikes me as perhaps as much of an outlier as the Washington Post (Obama +4) survey done over the same time period. I'm really thinking Virginia is literally tied.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Ahhh yes the Detroit News...which happened to endorse Romney for president. Yeah I'm sure an unbiased sample. Makes them sell a lot more papers when the race for Michigan looks tight.

They had Obama +14 six weeks ago. And they didn't conduct the poll.

 

[xBiffx]

They had Obama +14 six weeks ago. And they didn't conduct the poll.

Damn..you just beat me to it. I was searching for a link...still searching.

Found it.

Here is the history of the MI polls on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

Detroit News 8/18 - 8/20 600 LV 4.0 48 42 Obama +6

Detroit News 9/15 - 9/17 600 LV 4.0 52 38 Obama +14

Detroit News 10/27 - 10/29 600 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3

 

[TraumaRN]

Mid September was when Obama was peaking.

I'm sure it has tightened up but Michigan is still going blue.

Also take a peek at the Michigan senate race. Never been close so I honestly doubt its really this close in the presidential race.

 

[Farang]

While talk of MI, MN, and PA are concerning to me as an Obama voter, I'm not sure I buy that they're swing states. 538 had a pretty convincing dismissal of a couple of the firms out of MI, and while things are tightening no poll has shown a Romney lead in any of these places. The only concerning thing is seeing campaign surrogates go to these places (especially Clinton to MN), which I'd hope is nothing more than an abundance of caution.

Someone made a good point that we shouldn't read too much into the Romney ad buys because there is so much money in this race, that they don't have a lot to lose if it was just a low probability gambit in case they lose Ohio.

 

[Farang]

That one strikes me as perhaps as much of an outlier as the Washington Post (Obama +4) survey done over the same time period. I'm really thinking Virginia is literally tied.

I agree, especially because the CBS poll out today seemed like it leaned Democratic by 2-3 points and showed Obama +2 today.

 

[Blackjack200]

While talk of MI, MN, and PA are concerning to me as an Obama voter, I'm not sure I buy that they're swing states. 538 had a pretty convincing dismissal of a couple of the firms out of MI, and while things are tightening no poll has shown a Romney lead in any of these places. The only concerning thing is seeing campaign surrogates go to these places (especially Clinton to MN), which I'd hope is nothing more than an abundance of caution.

Someone made a good point that we shouldn't read too much into the Romney ad buys because there is so much money in this race, that they don't have a lot to lose if it was just a low probability gambit in case they lose Ohio.

I think Romney's campaign and the Super PACs are realizing that Ohio is slipping away and at this point, it would take an upset to win it. Upsets are certainly possible, but if you're going to try for an upset, might as well try 4 or 5 states instead of 1.

Similarly, Obama should (and I think he will) continue to contest Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and any other states that are leaning slightly Romney. That way if Romney does pull a weird upset somewhere, Obama can still win it with an upset of his own.

 

[Farang]

I think Romney's campaign and the Super PACs are realizing that Ohio is slipping away and at this point, it would take an upset to win it. Upsets are certainly possible, but if you're going to try for an upset, might as well try 4 or 5 states instead of 1.

Similarly, Obama should (and I think he will) continue to contest Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and any other states that are leaning slightly Romney. That way if Romney does pull a weird upset somewhere, Obama can still win it with an upset of his own.

I agree, in some ways I think what is happening actually validates the view of the race taken by polling analysts such as Nate Silver. If Silver were running a campaign he'd probably say that with Obama holding a stubborn lead in Ohio, the only chance for success is going to be expanding the map. While it's unlikely he's going to flip MN, MI, or PA, it's equally unlikely that after so much campaigning he is going to get rid of the 2-3 point OH deficit. It also helps the national media narrative that he has momentum, and the map is expanding in the final days of the race.