Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[buckshot24]

Was that before or after the financial collapse?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Dunno. I saw a map from Morris that also was entirely blue.

The guy is literally the worst prognosticator I have ever come across.

 

[First]

^ lulz, that's freaking awesome no matter when he said that because places like MN, PA, WA and OR were NEVER within 5 points all of 2008. What a nutbag.

Btw, when the hell will Repubs give up on the idea that PA is a "toss-up"? PA is out of reach for a long, long time, get over that shit.

 

[buckshot24]

I guess that's from 10-15-08

 

[Charles Kozierok]

LOL, that map is almost as ridiculous as the one I posted, only in the other direction.

Arkansas "strongly Obama"? McCain won it by 20 points! LOL

The guy either flat out lies in his maps to push an agenda, or he's using a magic 8 ball.

 

[Farang]

Another day without anything new to report from Ohio. Romney campaign talks about "expanding the map" http://www.expandthemap.com, translation www.notwinningohio.com

 

[buckshot24]

LOL, that map is almost as ridiculous as the one I posted, only in the other direction.

Arkansas "strongly Obama"? McCain won it by 20 points! LOL

The guy either flat out lies in his maps to push an agenda, or he's using a magic 8 ball.

And Obama won Indiana.

 

[First]

Btw, state polls from yesterday

CO: Obama +3, Obama +3.5, Obama +3, and tied
FL: Romney +1, Obama +2
IA: Obama +2
NC: tied
NV: Obama +3
PA: Obama +5
VA: Romney +2, Romney +2, Obama +5
WI: Obama +6

Right now, with WI, PA and MI basically out of reach, NV solid blue all year including every poll since Denver (albeit 2-3 points), and with IA/NH/CO all still leaning Obama ever so slighly with very good early voting gains there, Romney needs to bag all 5 of NH, NC, FL, VA and OH to get to exactly 270, with Obama getting 268 in that scenario.

But in reality, we know OH isn't going red without a major national event at this point, so Obama's likely going to hit 300+ electoral votes as I've been saying, probably taking VA and NH with him, along with OH, to get to 303.

 

[Farang]

Btw, state polls from yesterday

CO: Obama +3, Obama +3.5, Obama +3, and tied
FL: Romney +1, Obama +2
IA: Obama +2
NC: tied
NV: Obama +3
PA: Obama +5
VA: Romney +2, Romney +2, Obama +5
WI: Obama +6

Right now, with WI, PA and MI basically out of reach, NV solid blue all year including every poll since Denver (albeit 2-3 points), and with IA/NH/CO all still leaning Obama ever so slighly with very good early voting gains there, Romney needs to bag all 5 of NH, NC, FL, VA and OH to get to exactly 270, with Obama getting 268 in that scenario.

But in reality, we know OH isn't going red without a major national event at this point, so Obama's likely going to hit 300+ electoral votes as I've been saying, probably taking VA and NH with him, along with OH, to get to 303.

I agree with this assessment, though I emphasize "probably" on VA and NH. I can see either going to Romney.

I've wondered if his talk show circuit as of late is to avoid losing the popular vote and therefore not being able to claim a mandate.

 

[buckshot24]

Where are you getting that plus 5 Obama poll from Virginia?

Also that Wisconsin +6?

 

[First]

I agree with this assessment, though I emphasize "probably" on VA and NH. I can see either going to Romney.

Me too. I'd be more confident with NH than VA, though the last 8 years VA has fundamentally changed both in terms of demographics (large black population and urban growth) and lots of liberal downshoot from DC to northern VA. He has polled well there all year and has just as good ground there as OH (apparently).

I've wondered if his talk show circuit as of late is to avoid losing the popular vote and therefore not being able to claim a mandate.

Maybe, but Dems are much less likely to lose the popular vote in general I think because they tend to dominate medium-to-large cities and urban areas all over the country, especially in massive states like NY and CA. They can run up the score there better than any combination Republicans can come up, say TX and GA.

 

[Farang]

For shits and giggles I was browsing unskewedpolls.com and thought the best outcome of this election might just be if they call it exactly right. I might be ok with 4 years of Romney just to see the reaction to that.

 

[First]

Search "State-by-State Projections" and select More tab under each competitive state here.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

And Obama won Indiana.

Yes, but by a hair. That's not what's ridiculous on that map.

Basically, the election comes down to whether Gallup and Rasmussen's national polls are right -- or everything else is. I know which way I am leaning.

I think VA could go either way. I think Obama will carry OH and NH pretty easily.

 

[buckshot24]

Search "State-by-State Projections" and select More tab under each competitive state here.

Presumably you were talking about the PPP poll from 10/24 in Virginia not yesterday. Their link is broken so I can't look at the poll and I couldn't find it on their site. +5 is out of whack compared to the rest of the recent polling.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/VirginiaPollingMemo102512.pdf

 

[Doppel]

OK, does anybody in this thread actually still think Romney is going to win? Anyone?

 

[Farang]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/VirginiaPollingMemo102512.pdf

I wonder what happens if someone hangs up in the middle of the call? If I were a Republican I'd hang up upon hearing

"Which of the Presidential candidates do you
trust more to make sure the wealthiest
Americans pay their fair share of taxes: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?"

 

[Doppel]

I wonder what happens if someone hangs up in the middle of the call? If I were a Republican I'd hang up upon hearing

"Which of the Presidential candidates do you
trust more to make sure the wealthiest
Americans pay their fair share of taxes: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?"

Yeah that question is worthless and incredibly leading. It's like "Who between a multiple-rapist and a pedophile would you most like to go on vacation with?"

 

[randomrogue]

OK, does anybody in this thread actually still think Romney is going to win? Anyone?

<crickets>

 

[dali71]

OK, does anybody in this thread actually still think Romney is going to win? Anyone?

Yes, I absolutely believe that Romney will be our next President.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I think he could win. It basically comes down to whether Gallup and Rasmussen are seeing something hidden from the others, or not.

 

[PJABBER]

If I am not busy, I talk to the political solicitors that call me.

Observation #1 - Not a single one of the Obama callers are enthused. Not a single one. They drone on and on and on and come across as zombies. I kid you not. I thought this was due to some kind of SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder,) but they are not even calling from Chicago. Then I thought they were all pulling some kind of a Halloween prank, you know, "I am a zombie, and I am calling on behalf of the Obama Victory Campaign." Which would have been pretty cool, though I still wouldn't have given them a dime since I figure I pay enough in taxes. But then I figured out that they were just going through the motions. Now, I've done telephone sales and I know how hard it is to keep dialing, but c'mon, at least make an effort to convince me that I would be backing a winner and not some chump.

Observation #2 - The Romney callers are super enthused. Man oh man, they want to hit me up for $500, then when I say no they tell me they will split the difference to $250. One time I got one guy down to seeing if I would pledge $5 after ten minutes of this. I was just pulling his chain (he was from Minnesota, which is quite blue, but not as blue as the People's Democratic Socialist State of Maryland) but we had some laughs and I pledged $100 so he would make his personal goal.

Based solely on the observed enthusiasm differences between Obama zombie callers and Romney hyperactive callers, I am making an early call that this election will go Romney/Ryan.

 

[cybrsage]

Yeah that question is worthless and incredibly leading. It's like "Who between a multiple-rapist and a pedophile would you most like to go on vacation with?"

Pedophile, since I am not a child I am safer with him.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Observation #1 - Not a single one of the Obama callers are enthused.
...
Observation #2 - The Romney callers are super enthused.

Thank you for these oh-so-valuable observations that I Am One Hundred Percent Convinced Have Nothing To Do With Your Own Personal Biases.