Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[jpeyton]

538 has shown Obama's chances improve over the last two rounds of polling. The debate bounce is over.

Winston-Salem Journal endorses its first Democratic candidate since 1964

 

[buckshot24]

That's nice, too bad this reply of yours had nothing to do with my comment about your prayer of Wisconsin going to Romney.

Just that you made a factually inaccurate statement.

I'm well aware of what you were doing, and your assumptions were simply weak and shitty. I pointed that out with polls and numbers, which are oddly enough both your friend and enemy when it suits your argument.

It appears you don't know what I was doing but that's ok.

lol, tard. Every major polling firm is active in Virginia. Obama's still up in the RCP averages in Virginia for god sakes. Take a hint kid.

Your first problem is that you think I was making this claim

Romney is going to win Virginia because Suffolk has pulled out of the state.

I wasn't, I was giving plausibility to my assumption for arguments sake. I make no claim to the veracity of Suffolk's claim that North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida are all going red. They aren't polling there anymore, take it for what its worth.

My prediction that Romney wins by 4 has nothing to do with the current polls or electoral projections.

 

[First]

Just that you made a factually inaccurate statement.

Point out where because you definitely haven't done so, so far.

It appears you don't know what I was doing but that's ok.

Whatever you have to tell yourself, kiddo.

Your first problem is that you think I was making this claim

Romney is going to win Virginia because Suffolk has pulled out of the state.

I wasn't, I was giving plausibility to my assumption for arguments sake. I make no claim to the veracity of Suffolk's claim that North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida are all going red. They aren't polling there anymore, take it for what its worth.

lol, you shouldn't be confused then; like I said, Suffolk not polling there isn't worth anything. Notice the part where I responded with "nada, zilch, nichts". Reread page 12 if you're still confused.

My prediction that Romney wins by 4 has nothing to do with the current polls or electoral projections.

Yet you cite polls in other posts to support your arguments about Romney winning. Boy you are a horribly flustered poster.

 

[randomrogue]

So basically you are making shit up? Ok gotcha.

It's gotten to the point where the Obama EC votes total nearly 250 without swing states. He needs 20 points. Ohio is 18 points. Obama is trending UP in Ohio. The game is over until something changes.

edit: If I'm doing the math right if you give Romney every swing state he has a lead in he's still only at 263.

 

[buckshot24]

So basically you are making shit up? Ok gotcha.

Not really.

I'm on one hand talking about polls and using polls to discuss the state of the race based upon them. The Romney victory prediction based upon other factors that are more subjective. That prediction isn't something I am arguing for. We will know soon enough.

It's gotten to the point where the Obama EC votes total nearly 250 without swing states. He needs 20 points. Ohio is 18 points. Obama is trending UP in Ohio. The game is over until something changes.

250? According to what?

edit: If I'm doing the math right if you give Romney every swing state he has a lead in he's still only at 263.

What states are you showing in that list?

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Why do you keep bothering to waste energy arguing with the obvious intellectual midget that is buckshot24?

He's yet another in the long line of neo-Conservative troll that will be long gone once Obama wins reelection. You can take that to the bank.

 

[buckshot24]

Point out where because you definitely haven't done so, so far.

I already did.

lol, you shouldn't be confused then; like I said, Suffolk not polling there isn't worth anything. Notice the part where I responded with "nada, zilch, nichts". Reread page 12 if you're still confused.

Oh yeah First from Anandtech Forum has spoken, silly me I should have accepted the gospel truth when it was presented.

Yet you cite polls in other posts to support your arguments about Romney winning. Boy you are a horribly flustered poster.

I'm sorry that this is so difficult for you. I don't think the polls are accurate if I did I wouldn't say that Romney is going to win by 4 and 330 EC votes. If I accepted the polls as accurate I wouldn't have made my prediction.

However I am arguing within the framework of the polls at times because there is actually something something to argue about.

My prediction garners one of three responses.

1. You're full of shit!
2. Interesting, we'll have to wait and see.
3. Right on, I agree.

Each option isn't a great topic to debate about.

Now the polls, there we have something that can be discussed and that's why I use them.

 

[buckshot24]

Why do you keep bothering to waste energy arguing with the obvious intellectual midget that is buckshot24?

He's yet another in the long line of neo-Conservative troll that will be long gone once Obama wins reelection. You can take that to the bank.

I'll be here if Obama wins. I'll make a gloat thread so all of you geniuses can attack me once again.

I'll make a gloat thread either way.

 

[First]

I already did.

Nope.

Oh yeah First from Anandtech Forum has spoken, silly me I should have accepted the gospel truth when it was presented.

Not me, but I have indeed already owned your sorry ass with evidence here, here and here.

I'm sorry that this is so difficult for you. I don't think the polls are accurate if I did I wouldn't say that Romney is going to win by 4 and 330 EC votes. If I accepted the polls as accurate I wouldn't have made my prediction.

lol, boy you're fucking confused. You literally just used RCP.com (a polling aggregation web site) and a polling firm that stopped polling a few swing states to make an argument for Romney having a chance at winning Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida.

However I am arguing within the framework of the polls at times because there is actually something something to argue about.

My prediction garners one of three responses.

1. You're full of shit!
2. Interesting, we'll have to wait and see.
3. Right on, I agree.

Each option isn't a great topic to debate about.

Now the polls, there we have something that can be discussed and that's why I use them.

You need to be told this; you're simply not very intelligent.

 

[First]

I'll be here if Obama wins. I'll make a gloat thread so all of you geniuses can attack me once again.

I'll make a gloat thread either way.

You'll make a gloat thread when you inevitably lose?

Maybe you need to consider that you don't have much of a life.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

You'll make a gloat thread when you inevitably lose?

Maybe you need to consider that you don't have much of a life.

I was about to say who the fuck makes a gloat thread when they lose?

 

[shortylickens]

Can somebody remind me what happens when they each get the exact same number?

 

[ivwshane]

Can somebody remind me what happens when they each get the exact same number?

The house votes for the president and the senate votes for the VP. In the house each state gets one vote, in the senate everyone votes and majority rules.

 

[Engineer]

Romney had taken a decent lead with EVERY poll from RCP in his favor or a tie as of yesterday. Today, Obama has taken the lead in one poll by 3 and another by 1. The debate(s) will finish this thing off one way or another, IMO, and maybe as soon as tomorrow night.

 

[buckshot24]

Nope.

Sure I did, read.

Not me, but I have indeed already owned your sorry ass with evidence here, here and here.

What the hell is that all about? Where am I disputing the projections based upon the current numbers? You call me not intelligent and yet you provide evidence of something that isn't in fucking dispute.

lol, boy you're fucking confused. You literally just used RCP.com (a polling aggregation web site) and a polling firm that stopped polling a few swing states to make an argument for Romney having a chance at winning Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida.

Take Suffolk dropping those states for what it is fucking worth you piece of shit. I am NOT using them as evidence of anything except to support an assumption I was making of a scenario that has a chance of happening. Plus Suffolk has nothing to do with Wisconsin whatsoever retard. Suffolk dropped out of Virginia, North Carolina and Florida not Wisconsin. So what the hell are you talking about?

You need to be told this; you're simply not very intelligent.

And yet you overblow everything I say as something it isn't. Not only are you an asshole but you are fucking retarded as well. -snip-.

 

[buckshot24]

I was about to say who the fuck makes a gloat thread when they lose?

Somebody who is certain that he won't have to.

 

[buckshot24]

Romney had taken a decent lead with EVERY poll from RCP in his favor or a tie as of yesterday. Today, Obama has taken the lead in one poll by 3 and another by 1. The debate(s) will finish this thing off one way or another, IMO, and maybe as soon as tomorrow night.

ABC hasn't released a poll since before the debate and they actually had it closer with Obama up 2 then. They haven't had Romney ahead since August.

Interesting if you look in the internals...

Of those who said they support Obama 10% said they could be swayed while those who for Romney had 7%.

Enthusiasm has 60% very enthusiastic for Obama while Romney has 66%.

More enthusiastic voters are more likely to vote.

 

[randomrogue]

I've already voted. The closer to this gets to the end the less votes there are to be had. I'm going to assume (I could be wrong) that early votes will go heavily in favor of Obama and not Romney since Romney "was/is" doing so poorly. So even if Romney does amazing in the next debate there will be less votes to sway. Romney could give birth to baby jesus up on stage and he'd never get my vote. Too late.

 

[zsdersw]

ABC hasn't released a poll since before the debate and they actually had it closer with Obama up 2 then. They haven't had Romney ahead since August.

Interesting if you look in the internals...

Of those who said they support Obama 10% said they could be swayed while those who for Romney had 7%.

Enthusiasm has 60% very enthusiastic for Obama while Romney has 66%.

More enthusiastic voters are more likely to vote.

Yes, yes... we know you want Romney to win.

 

[soundforbjt]

The house votes for the president and the senate votes for the VP. In the house each state gets one vote, in the senate everyone votes and majority rules.

Romney/Biden would be interesting! Guaranteed comedy classic!

 

[buckshot24]

Yes, yes... we know you want Romney to win.

Oh and that poll has a +9 Dem sample so take that for what it's worth.

The numbers are the numbers, my desire has nothing to do with them.

 

[First]

Sure I did, read.

I bet you won't and will wimp out of showing it.

What the hell is that all about? Where am I disputing the projections based upon the current numbers? You call me not intelligent and yet you provide evidence of something that isn't in fucking dispute.

You said: "The Electoral map has changed once that "stale" data has been replaced with "fresh" data. It's moving towards a Romney victory, not away from it. If that is not the case then please present your data."

I then linked you InTrade, 538, Vegas bookies here, here and here.

So to recap; today, October 15th, you claim these polls were never in dispute, despite asking two days earlier on October 13th to present data disproving the race isn't moving toward a Romney victory.

Again, you're not a very intelligent or consistent poster, and I'm saying this in a nice way, believe it or not.

Take Suffolk dropping those states for what it is fucking worth you piece of shit. I am NOT using them as evidence of anything except to support an assumption I was making of a scenario that has a chance of happening.

You're citing a polling firm that ceases polling in Virginia and Florida to prove your argument that a particular scenario has a chance of occurring. But you're not using that polling firm, Suffolk, as evidence of anything.

Gee, thanks for clearing that up. Troll.

Plus Suffolk has nothing to do with Wisconsin whatsoever retard. Suffolk dropped out of Virginia, North Carolina and Florida not Wisconsin. So what the hell are you talking about?

I know they have nothing to do with Wisconsin. Thanks for the news flash, lol.

 

[First]

Btw, based on RCP averages, IBD tracking has moved 6 points back to Obama since last week, two polls out today (as mentioned before) with Obama up 1 and 3 and two polls out in the last 24 hours showing Obama within 1 in Florida and 2 in North Carolina.

Oh and that poll has a +9 Dem sample so take that for what it's worth.

The numbers are the numbers, my desire has nothing to do with them.

lulz. As has been baby-fed to you before, you openly admit you don't know shit about statistics or probabilities, so you shouldn't be commenting on polling methodology when you don't understand shit about it.

 

[zsdersw]

Oh and that poll has a +9 Dem sample so take that for what it's worth.

The numbers are the numbers, my desire has nothing to do with them.

Didn't say it did.. but clearly you want Romney to win, in spite of the fact that there is no evidence to suggest he'll be any better for us than Obama.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

unfortunately i think romney is going to win. obama isnt putting up much of a fight--i dont even think he wants to be reelected, and romney isnt going to screw up the next two debates