Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[Atomic Playboy]

Holy heck, that's amazing, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and even Michigan have been moved from the "leaning obama" category to "toss up". I still don't see any way Romney can pull it off, but I am very surprised to see Michigan and NH go into that category now with the media in full obummer support mode.

What is their criteria for calling something a "toss up?" Michigan has not had one single poll that showed Romney in the lead since August. The last few polls show Obama with the slimmest lead he's had there, and it's still averaging around 4 points. It's even stronger in Pennsylvania, but that's been moved to "toss up" as well. Even if you split the toss-up states, Obama still ends up winning the electoral college, so I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet. Or you could go full PJABBER and imply that every chart which shows Obama in the lead is just further proof that Romney will enjoy a "blowout." I don't even....

 

[PJABBER]

What is their criteria for calling something a "toss up?" Michigan has not had one single poll that showed Romney in the lead since August. The last few polls show Obama with the slimmest lead he's had there, and it's still averaging around 4 points. It's even stronger in Pennsylvania, but that's been moved to "toss up" as well. Even if you split the toss-up states, Obama still ends up winning the electoral college, so I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet. Or you could go full PJABBER and imply that every chart which shows Obama in the lead is just further proof that Romney will enjoy a "blowout." I don't even....

If the polls are even, within the margin of error, it is considered a "tossup."

 

[First]

Holy shit I never realized spidey was a chick.

lmao.

 

[jpeyton]

“Obama’s slight 49 percent to 46 percent seven-day lead among registered voters is just about where it was in the seven days prior to the debate,” said Frank Newport, editor in chief at Gallup Poll. “This trend suggests that Romney’s impressive debate performance — 72 percent of debate watchers said he did the better job — may not have a lasting impact.”

Polls taken right after the VP debate show the same trend.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

There's no way one single debate is going to have a seismic shift in the race.

Now if Obama strings together 3 successive terrible debates then yes we can definitely see a defined shift in Romney's direction. Problem is early voting is already under way and Romney needs that gap to be a lot closer than it currently is, even with his post debate bump.

 

[Doppel]

538 now has Obama down to 61%, this has been a catastrophic past 8 days for him. His campaign must really be sweating now. A loss in 8 days from mid 80's % chance of EC win to now 61.

 

[ivwshane]

538 now has Obama down to 61%, this has been a catastrophic past 8 days for him. His campaign must really be sweating now. A loss in 8 days from mid 80's % chance of EC win to now 61.

Well lynsdey lohan and hulk hogan just backed mitt so I'd say this shit is over for Obama!




/s

 

[umbrella39]

Right, and what about all those conservatives talking about a conspiracy with the polls a week or two back?

NOWwwww the polls are right. Don't you get that?

 

[zinfamous]

NOWwwww the polls are right. Don't you get that?

NO no NO! THe ebil libruuuul cabal that controls the poles just wants you to think Obama is slipping--this will get all of the people out in force to vote for him, and also vote for all the homersexual and women's rights initiatives in the states to further their anti-gawd agenda!

Don't you see?! The libruls control it all!!111

In fact, Obama's real lead is larger than it has ever been! Get out and vote Romney, or the libruls will win and the USofA will begin down a 1000 year Islamic caliphate by the end of 2013! D:

 

[Balt]

538 now has Obama down to 61%, this has been a catastrophic past 8 days for him. His campaign must really be sweating now. A loss in 8 days from mid 80's % chance of EC win to now 61.

Yup, and if you check the "now-cast" (which guesses what would happen if the election were held today), it's basically 50-50. The forecast model doesn't have it that close because it is slower to react to shifts (it looks at aggregates rather than just the most recent polling, I believe).

At the moment, it looks like that debate is going to cost Obama the election. I'm not sure the damage can be stopped at this point.

 

[buckshot24]

He gone

 

[buckshot24]

I still think the polls are off, I don't think it is as close as they are showing for the reasons I outlined earlier in this thread.

 

[First]

...for the reasons I outlined earlier...

lol. Your memory must be shot, because you've been bent over and abused quite repeatedly in this thread about your complete and total lack of understanding of how polls function and what they represent.

 

[buckshot24]

lol. Your memory must be shot, because you've been bent over and abused quite repeatedly in this thread about your complete and total lack of understanding of how polls function and what they represent.

Your fantasies have no place in this thread. I do understand the polls and I understand that I was right about using "stale data".

Your precious polls are starting to come around to where I have been all along. Obama is going out and it won't be close.

 

[umbrella39]

Soooo many socks...

 

[jpeyton]

Yup, and if you check the "now-cast" (which guesses what would happen if the election were held today), it's basically 50-50.

"Now-cast" is 60/40 as well. The reason the November 6th forecast is more accurate is simple: there are a lot of advantages to being the incumbent, especially one with an approval rating over 50%. Bush polled slightly lower in October 2004 and won it out, and the opposition to Obama is nowhere near a fierce.

Ryan got steamrolled on foreign policy and national security by Biden, and Obama will do the same with Mitt. Obama's in the lead now, and will stay in the lead through election day.

 

[Nemesis 1]

What is their criteria for calling something a "toss up?" Michigan has not had one single poll that showed Romney in the lead since August. The last few polls show Obama with the slimmest lead he's had there, and it's still averaging around 4 points. It's even stronger in Pennsylvania, but that's been moved to "toss up" as well. Even if you split the toss-up states, Obama still ends up winning the electoral college, so I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet. Or you could go full PJABBER and imply that every chart which shows Obama in the lead is just further proof that Romney will enjoy a "blowout." I don't even....

Ya I watch pawn brokers . I can see where michagin would be for obummer

 

[buckshot24]

"Now-cast" is 60/40 as well. The reason the November 6th forecast is more accurate is simple: there are a lot of advantages to being the incumbent, especially one with an approval rating over 50%. Bush polled slightly lower in October 2004 and won it out, and the opposition to Obama is nowhere near a fierce.

Ryan got steamrolled on foreign policy and national security by Biden, and Obama will do the same with Mitt. Obama's in the lead now, and will stay in the lead through election day.

Your man is only at 46% RCP avg. He's going out.

 

[First]

Your fantasies have no place in this thread. I do understand the polls and I understand that I was right about using "stale data".

lol, so now you're finally sticking to your original bullshit characterization of polls as stale.

Your precious polls are starting to come around to where I have been all along. Obama is going out and it won't be close.

buckshot mere pages ago:

First seems to think I'm making my prediction of a Romney win from the polling data, itself. That isn't the case.

lmao, tard.

 

[buckshot24]

lol, so now you're finally sticking to your original bullshit characterization of polls as stale.



buckshot mere pages ago:



lmao, tard.

This may be the most pathetic attempt at a put down I've ever seen. In fact I wonder how you put your shoes on in the morning without falling over.

The Electoral map has changed once that "stale" data has been replaced with "fresh" data. It's moving towards a Romney victory, not away from it. If that is not the case then please present your data.

 

[jpeyton]

Your man is only at 46% RCP avg. He's going out.

Your man is only at 47.3%. His electoral vote equation isn't adding up.

 

[buckshot24]

Your man is only at 47.3%. His electoral vote equation isn't adding up.

Your man is the incumbent sitting president. He's going out.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

The Electoral map has changed once that "stale" data has been replaced with "fresh" data. It's moving towards a Romney victory, not away from it. If that is not the case then please present your data.

It has moved (past tense) towards a Romney victory for the last 10 days. You seem to be extrapolating from this tht the trend will continue going forward, but that's not how these things tend to work.

And for all the focus on how badly Obama has blown his lead, Romney's bump hasn't put him up yet. The right certainly has reason to feel encouraged, but not overconfident.

 

[zinfamous]

He gone

OH gawd....a White Sox fan.


that's not a bad thing in itself...but any reference to "The Hawk" sure is. D:

 

[zinfamous]

Your man is the incumbent sitting president. He's going out.

considering the status of the economy, it's depressing that your team isn't dominating, and remains behind.