Some polls now have Romney ahead.

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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Using that guy's analysis as a go to reference point is really getting old.

At the moment, he projects a 297 vs 241 EC split going to Obama.

He also projects only a 29% chance of Romney winning.

That is based not on accepting the recent polling that shows a paradigm shift, but on the idea that the recent shift is transitory and that the trend will revert.

In this he becomes just another Obama hopester trying to use selective and biased weighting to support a preordained and false outcom
e.

Beyond polling, we should take into account factors that are not captured in preference polling: the voting population gaining clarity on who Romney is, who Ryan is, the failure of Obama's foreign policy, the failure of Obama and the Congressional Democrats' economic experiment, the distinct personal character contrasts between the two teams, the recognition that, yes, there is hope still out there and it is not coming from the king with no clothes on.

These realizations, as they continue, will open up a can of whoop-ass on Team Obama well beyond the initial flurry of the first round.

Did Glen Beck teach you these big words and outline these talking points on his white board?

The failure of Obama's foreign policy? lol. good luck trying to attack him on that. lol. The pub's no longer have a dick big enough to wag in the shadow of what Obama has accomplished over the last 4 years, in terms of dealing with them ebil terrists!
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
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Early voting in Ohio is already underway and people are voting at record levels. Democrats are outweighing Republicans almost 2:1 at this point, largely due to all of the voter ID disenfranchisement scares. People are afraid their votes aren't going to be counted, so they are coming in early and getting it taken care of.

Perhaps you can provide a link to a reputable source for this conjecture.

The data on absentee ballots shows that the Ds requested 33.14% of ballots in 2008 and 30.06% in 2012, about a 10% falloff. The Rs requested 18.07% of ballots in 2008 and 23.43% in 2012, an increase.

In fact, the total numbers of all absentee ballot requests has fallen off considerably in Ohio. In 2008 there were 1,340,329 and in 2012 there are 867,061.

More here: 2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

2:1 advantage not found.

This means the pool of undecideds Romney has to sway at this point is getting smaller and smaller. He absolutely HAS to be tied or ahead of Obama to win this state at this point. The fact that he's down 3-6 pts in almost every Ohio poll is the DEATH SENTENCE to his campaign. He cannot make up that margin in two debates unless Obama has a horrific performance.

Don't count those votes just yet. In fact, be very doubtful that you are getting anything like the real story.

I don't know where you are getting your info, but all Ohio polling now shows Romney and Obama within 1% of each other. The only outlier poll is the NBC/Marist poll showing Obama with a 6% lead.

Marist's latest survey of OH finds Obama with a comfortable 6-point lead, 51-45, among likely voters. Among independents, however, Romney is leading Obama by 8 points, 49-41. If you reread those two sentences you'll see that something odd is going on.

In Marist's previous survey of OH, conducted before the presidential debate, Obama had an 8 point lead, 51-43 and was leading among independents by 4 points, 47-43. According, then, to Marist's own polling, Romney picked up 12 points among independents, but only picked up 2 points in the overall match-up.

How did Marist achieve this odd result? They packed a lot more Democrats into their poll.

Pre-debate, Marist's poll of OH was D+5, 36% Democrat, 31% Republican. Post-debate, their poll is D+11, 40% Democrat, 29% Republican. Marist would have us believe that, in the immediate wake of Obama's widely panned debate performance, the electorate in OH had a 6-point swing towards the Democrats. Really?

Marist really thinks that Democrats in 2012 will have a larger turnout than in 2008? And that the Democrat surge came in the wake of last week's debate? Apparently, Obama's epic debate fail was just what he needed to make Ohioans flock to the Democrat party.

A quick look at early voting in OH shows the lie in Marist's numbers. In 2008, Democrats had a nearly 15 point advantage over the GOP in early voting. This year, their advantage is down to just 6 points. Republicans have already almost reached their total number of absentee ballots from 2008, while Democrats are just around half the level reached in 2008.

It isn't even remotely defensible to argue that this year the Democrat turnout advantage will eclipse 2008. This is nothing more than pure propaganda.

Immediately after last week's debate, I joked on twitter that the media would have to start deploying D+20 samples to maintain Obama's lead. Marist is well down that road.
 
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First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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lol.

Obama's going to win, get it over it. Quick. Before you start balling.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,992
31,551
146
you know what's weird?

10 days ago, all polls were an evil librul conspiracy to create fake numbers and show that Romney was less popular than we certainly believe him to be, and to drain him of money, to paint him a loser...

Now, the polls are correct! Look! Libruls no longer control the polls!


...wonder who is in charge of the polls next week. :hmm:
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
you know what's weird?

10 days ago, all polls were an evil librul conspiracy to create fake numbers and show that Romney was less popular than we certainly believe him to be, and to drain him of money, to paint him a loser...

Now, the polls are correct! Look! Libruls no longer control the polls!


...wonder who is in charge of the polls next week. :hmm:

I believe the polls remain skewed toward a greater Democrat turnout than will actually occur. They are counting on more participation and that means Obama shows his head above water.

In reality, there will be a greater than anticipated Republican turnout and that will be enough to get R&R into the White House, possibly with control of both the Senate and the House.

History shows that the polling magically gets a bit more accurate as election day approaches. It sucks for business to be mocked as an inaccurate outlier.

Of course we do have more to come from Obama's Libya debacle, more debates and maybe even a surprise or two before the election so stay tuned.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
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We've seen this panic on the Democratic side before after key "events" occur.

At the beginning of September 2008, McCain had just picked Palin, and polls swung quickly to put him in the lead in both the popular vote and electoral vote. McCain actually led Obama in the national popular vote polls by almost 3 points (Romney is at +0.7 right now, with the same period of time having passed after the "event").

The "paradigm shift" failed to materialize. Paradigm shifts are extremely rare, especially this late in the game. It took about three weeks before the polls were back to their pre-event levels. I would give Obama another two weeks before Romney's debate bounce has been fully neutralized.

everyone-chill-the-fuck-out-i-got-this-thumb.jpg


Obama's GOTV network is better now than it was in 2008, and it was really darn good in 2008. But he's playing coy with his confidence levels right now, because it drives donors and volunteers to do more when they perceive their candidate to be on the ropes.
 
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buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
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But he's playing coy with his confidence levels right now, because it drives donors and volunteers to do more when they perceive their candidate to be on the ropes.
This is also why he deliberately lost the first debate to get his donors going into overdrive.:whiste:
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,992
31,551
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What Libya debacle?

So you guys mean that while Obama still had nothing to do with killing Osama he sure as shit is responsible for the murder of ambassador Stevens?

Is this the new line you guys are going with?
 

Screech

Golden Member
Oct 20, 2004
1,203
7
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"Obama had a major terrorist attack occur on his watch! He is clearly unfit for the presidency! We need republicans back in charge!"

*taps sarcasm meter until it breaks

romney is doing quite well (relative to before) in the polls right now. That said, I have a feeling only the last debate will matter........the american public has a notoriously short attention span.
 
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Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
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What Libya debacle?

So you guys mean that while Obama still had nothing to do with killing Osama he sure as shit is responsible for the murder of ambassador Stevens?

Is this the new line you guys are going with?

Hah, that's actually clever. Nicely played :)
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
What Libya debacle?

So you guys mean that while Obama still had nothing to do with killing Osama he sure as shit is responsible for the murder of ambassador Stevens?

Is this the new line you guys are going with?

One perspective...

08:45 AM ET, 10/11/2012

Is Benghazi Obama’s Waterloo?

By Jennifer Rubin

Washington Post

Does the Libya consulate scandal matter in the presidential election? Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but if it didn’t, then left-wing bloggers wouldn’t be trying to ignore it and come up with more “shiny objects” with which to attempt to distract voters.

On one level it is self-evident that a story involving the deaths of four Americans at the hands of Al Qaeda-linked terrorists and the revelation that the dead men were denied additional security is a big deal. Add in a false narrative coming directly from the mouth of the White House spokesman and a healthy game of finger-pointing between the State Department and others as to who is responsible for misleading the American people and you have a huge story.

The compelling testimony of the former regional security officer in Libya, Eric Nordstrom, recounting his ordeal is not going to be brushed aside lightly. As ABC News reported:

The former regional security officer in Libya, Eric Nordstrom, recalled talking to a regional director and asking for twelve security agents.

“His response to that was, ‘You are asking for the sun, moon and the stars.’ And my response to him – his name was Jim – ‘Jim, you know what makes most frustrating about this assignment? It is not the hardships, it is not the gunfire, it is not the threats. It is dealing and fighting against the people, programs and personnel who are supposed to be supporting me. And I added (sic) it by saying, ‘For me the Taliban is on the inside of the building.’”

In this case the damage to President Obama is especially acute because of four specific factors unique to this election. Any one of them would be sufficient to create an obstacle to his reelection; all four of them make it that much harder for him to win.

First, Obama is behind and must recapture the momentum. (You can tell because the Obama team is spinning internal polls, a sure sign of being behind and needing to stem panic). Days spent batting back a bad storyline are wasted for him. He needs to stop playing defense ( on his rotten debate, on his dopey Big Bird obsession, on Libya) and figure out how to beat the other guy. So long as a big, juicy scandal is sucking up the oxygen that’s hard to do.

Second, Obama has hidden from the press on the story, giving the appearance he has something to conceal. Moreover, that puts VP Joe Biden in the position of being the first person on the ticket to field questions. How’d you like to put your political future and the most critical response to a growing scandal in Biden’s hands? You see the point.

Third, Obama in his post-debate humiliation has staked everything on making Mitt Romney out to be a liar. It hasn’t worked because Obama’s accusations ( on the “$5 trillion tax cut,” especially) don’t hold up and his own claims ( his phony $4 trillion debt plan) are tallying up the Pinocchios. But now does he really want to get into a battle about transparency, credibility, and candor? Romney would be thrilled to have the conversation about misleading the American people.

Four, the Libya debacle severely hampers his touting his one actual foreign policy achievement, the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Because the administration so overplayed its accomplishment, painting it as the effective demise of Al Qaeda, even that is now a sore point. Did his boasting get in the way of honest analysis about the growing threat of Al Qaeda? Did they not take security pleas from its Libyan-based diplomats seriously because Al Qaeda was supposed to be kaput? Again, Romney is now more than willing to talk about why killing the Al Qaeda chieftain didn’t actually bury Al Qaeda. He’s glad, I’m sure, to get the chance to talk about what needs to be done to keep Americans safe (maybe not slash defense, for example). And if that weren’t enough, maybe Obama’s “leading from behind” put us in the position, as Lt. Col. Andrew Wood said in the hearing yesterday, in which Al Qaeda is much better established in Libya than we are.

At this stage in the race Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) can now afford to be somewhat more circumspect, demanding answers rather than making accusations. Why shouldn’t the president give a major address explaining what happened and why his White House ( and he, as late as Sept. 25 in his United Nations address) continued to fabricate a tale in which a protest over an anti-Muslim film resulted in the deaths of the four Americans? Why does the State Department say it didn’t tie the attacks to the film? Should someone be fired for this panoply of, at the very least, gross incompetence?

Let Biden or Obama explain what happened; it is after all ( as it was in Fast and Furious where other innocents were killed) a mess of their administration’s own making.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,992
31,551
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wow^ if you believe that being coy with an ongoing investigation is some type of treason, or political shenanigans, then you sheeple have sunk to a new low.

point of the matter is this:

--you can not pin this on Obama, without subsequently admitting that his stance against terrorism, on bring those to justice at the end of a missile, or by a SEAL-led raid, is also to his great credit. He can't be both responsible for Libya, and not responsible for bin Laden.
--when congress--and particularly ISSA--voted to deny spending on security that was requested by our consulates, you can not pin this on Obama.

it's sad, the lengths with which you and your ilk will go to politicize a tragedy, lie through your rotten teeth about the facts of what happened, and exploit these moments for expedient political gain (which will ultimately backfire).

I'm honestly not too interested in the opinion piece of an editorialist, as I am with the facts as presented.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
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--you can not pin this on Obama, without subsequently admitting that his stance against terrorism, on bring those to justice at the end of a missile, or by a SEAL-led raid, is also to his great credit. He can't be both responsible for Libya, and not responsible for bin Laden.
Kudos President Obama for giving the go ahead to kill Usama. But why wasn't the embassy protected properly? We know you can get around congress when you want.
--when congress--and particularly ISSA--voted to deny spending on security that was requested by our consulates, you can not pin this on Obama.
Mr President this is bullshit.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
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I'm predicting Romney's debate bounce will die about a week earlier than expected, based on how badly Biden is kicking Ryan's ass in the VP debate.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
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I'm predicting Romney's debate bounce will die about a week earlier than expected, based on how badly Biden is kicking Ryan's ass in the VP debate.
Don't you know that you have to show graphs and stats and stuff?
 

randomrogue

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2011
5,449
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Until I see a poll showing a Romney lead in Ohio outside the margin of error I honestly don't think he has a chance.

"But the democrats are going to have lower turnout and republicans higher!"

Yeah you made that up to make yourself feel better. That's great. Congratulations on your victory.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
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Until I see a poll showing a Romney lead in Ohio outside the margin of error I honestly don't think he has a chance.

"But the democrats are going to have lower turnout and republicans higher!"

Yeah you made that up to make yourself feel better. That's great. Congratulations on your victory.
I think there are some good reasons why turnout won't , erm turnout, like 2008.

2008
People were tired of Bush, they wanted a change. Obama is definitely a change, in fact he used Bush against McCain to great effect. Obama big lead on election day some repubs stay home (why bother?). Obama an unknown quantity. Huge meltdown blamed on Bush (unfairly). First black president, historic. Republican enthusiasm very low 35%

2012
Obama has a record, shitty economy, less people working today than when he took office. People know him better now. Very motivated anti Obama vote. Democrat enthusiasm down vs 2008. Republican enthusiasm up. Unpopular health care bill.

Given all of these factors the polls still have a turnout where there are actually more democrats voting this year than in 2008. Come November 6th I think you liberals are in for a rude awakening.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,743
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I think there are some good reasons why turnout won't , erm turnout, like 2008.

2008
People were tired of Bush, they wanted a change. Obama is definitely a change, in fact he used Bush against McCain to great effect. Obama big lead on election day some repubs stay home (why bother?). Obama an unknown quantity. Huge meltdown blamed on Bush (unfairly). First black president, historic. Republican enthusiasm very low 35%

2012
Obama has a record, shitty economy, less people working today than when he took office. People know him better now. Very motivated anti Obama vote. Democrat enthusiasm down vs 2008. Republican enthusiasm up. Unpopular health care bill.

Given all of these factors the polls still have a turnout where there are actually more democrats voting this year than in 2008. Come November 6th I think you liberals are in for a rude awakening.


Make note people! Not one of her talking points is that Romney is the better candidate or has better policies, telling very telling.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,444
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Remember back a couple weeks ago after the Democrat Convention and all the Democrat/lefties were all happy and dancing and saying the "elections are over" the "Republican are toast" or "turn out the lights" ? Remember that? Now after the total crap performance by Obama in the 1st presidential debate and the scary grinning lunatic performance by Biden the Republicans are back in the race, especially the Senate races and the House races. How cool is it that the performance by Obama/Biden made the Republicans so much stronger in other key races? That the total disaster of the debates for the Democrats has energized the Republicans and their turnout.

Thanks Obama and Biden for making the Republicans look good in comparison.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PCtemaHgjyA
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
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Make note people! Not one of her talking points is that Romney is the better candidate or has better policies, telling very telling.
Can you dispute any of my points?

Anyway, Romney is a better candidate and has better policies vs Obama 2008 and Obama 2012 and McCain 2008.

Now my points?
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,743
17,397
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Can you dispute any of my points?

Anyway, Romney is a better candidate and has better policies vs Obama 2008 and Obama 2012 and McCain 2008.

Now my points?

I dispute your claim of Obamas shitty record. But once again you ignore a point I made and dispute a point I didn't make.

Why is that? Why is it that you feel like you always have to reframe the argument to make a point? I'll stick with my original thinking: you do it because you are a stupid brainwashed hack! (ok I added some new insults)

Obama has a record, shitty economy, less people working today than when he took office. People know him better now. Very motivated anti Obama vote. Democrat enthusiasm down vs 2008. Republican enthusiasm up. Unpopular health care bill.

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/06/970711/comparing-bush-obama-jobs-seque/?mobile=wp