Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[rockyct]

The Ohio Obama campaign is just pumping on all cylinders.

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/11/few_know_about_stevie_wonder_a.html#incart_river

200 people came out to see Stevie Wonder play live.

The shuttle that was there to take voters to the polling station left empty.

Stuff like this is why people like hard numbers and facts which Silver provides; not gut feelings and confirmation bias. You post a link thinking it backs up what you believe and yet you ignore the large pictures.

"
Most of the people had learned of the event just hours before the 9:30 a.m. start time. Some just happened to be in the area and followed the live music.
Campaign volunteer Ken Johnson asked who in the crowd had voted early before introducing Wonder.
Nearly every hand went up."


This information does not fit into your belief, so you ignore it and select what you want to hear. The overall picture here is that it was stupid for the Obama campaign to have a concert at 9:30 AM on a Saturday and not tell anyone about it. Instead you squeeze it into a narrative of Obama not having good turnout.

Your belief that Romney will win on Tuesday is not based on logic or statistics. Instead you rely on gut feelings and a few bits of data that happen to match that. Every so often a gut feeling can be right, but relying on numbers is a much more sound position.

 

[buckshot24]

Stuff like this is why people like hard numbers and facts which Silver provides; not gut feelings and confirmation bias. You post a link thinking it backs up what you believe and yet you ignore the large pictures.

It was a major screw up by the campaign. They have Steve Wonder and they only get 200 people to show up. I wasn't ignoring the fact that they messed up that was part of why I posted it.

This information does not fit into your belief, so you ignore it and select what you want to hear. The overall picture here is that it was stupid for the Obama campaign to have a concert at 9:30 AM on a Saturday and not tell anyone about it. Instead you squeeze it into a narrative of Obama not having good turnout.

What do I keep saying about assumptions? Well you're doing it. This is a combo delight story. First, they lummox up the event in the first place and they have a bus unused and only 200 people showed up. This is like a 10 with a great personality. haha Any way you look at it the Obama campaign did not look good here.

 

[First]

Looks like Obama will win Virgina: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/obama-bill-clinton-virginia-election-2012_n_2070575.html

Obama, Bill Clinton Electrify Virginia Crowd Ahead Of Presidential Election

BRISTOW, Va. -- With the White House race in its final days, President Barack Obama and Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail together Saturday night.

Clinton, his voice hoarse from a flurry of campaign events, said he had given "my voice in the service of my president." The former president vouched for Obama's economic agenda, saying he had done a good job with a bad hand.

Obama, in his fourth rally of the day, sought to draw a connection between the flush economy Clinton presided over and his own policies for a second term, including increasing taxes on upper income earners.

The joint rally drew more than 24,000 people to an outdoor arena on a chilly November night. Obama and Clinton will campaign together again Sunday morning in New Hampshire.

Lol.

 

[jpeyton]

What's the over/under on 538's model hitting 90% for Obama by November 6th?

Or does he stop updating the model after November 5th?

 

[GarfieldtheCat]

Mr. Romney wins with 320 EC votes.

LOL....we have a new game now!

Everyone can try to decide who a777pilot and buckshot are:

http://www.salon.com/2012/11/03/five_delusional_right_wingers_who_have_mitt_in_a_landslide/

I'm picking Dick Morris as a777pilot, because both of them are clearly listening to voices only they can hear in their head.

Dean Chambers has to be buckshot, since he hates Nate Silver.

 

[Bowfinger]

Everyone should remember that the Achilles heel of polls is that they measure the intent of voters. They do not, however, measure the intent of vote counters. The closer the election, the more readily it can be tipped by corrupt vote counters. Electronic voting machines only make the vulnerability worse, especially when they lack any form of paper trail.

 

[Jhhnn]

LOL

John, this is weak stuff bro. If they felt they could fill a stadium or larger venue they would have booked one.

That's projection. The important thing for Obama is to appear in Ohio, to show 'em that they matter, let the local media take it from there.

McCain's appearance in that venue was much the same.

Security arrangements in larger venues are a much, much bigger headache, and given the number of appearances Obama will be making, entirely too much to ask of the Secret Service. Some smaller venues will be used for that reason & others.

Romney, OTOH, is pulling out all the stops, because his campaign knows that he *must* win Ohio, & that he's lagging...

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Dean Chambers has to be buckshot, since he hates Nate Silver.

Dean Chambers is a guy who knows nothing about polling but has managed to make himself a household name in just a few weeks. Buckshot only wishes he was that smart.

 

[soundforbjt]

Dean Chambers is a guy who knows nothing about polling but has managed to make himself a household name in just a few weeks. Buckshot only wishes he was that smart.

Even right-leaning Rasmussen doesn't agree with Chambers methods:

In every poll Chambers has reworked — save for a recent “unskewed” Fox News poll that has Obama up 2 points — Romney leads the incumbent. While Chambers, 45, of Duffield, Va., is a Romney supporter and longtime Republican, he said he is simply reporting the numbers “as they are.”
It doesn’t quite work that way, though. Scott Rasmussen told BuzzFeed this week: “you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another.” Different firms ask about party identification differently, he explained. It’s not apples to apples. Rasmussen added:

 

[buckshot24]

That's projection. The important thing for Obama is to appear in Ohio, to show 'em that they matter, let the local media take it from there.

McCain's appearance in that venue was much the same.

Security arrangements in larger venues are a much, much bigger headache, and given the number of appearances Obama will be making, entirely too much to ask of the Secret Service. Some smaller venues will be used for that reason & others.

Romney, OTOH, is pulling out all the stops, because his campaign knows that he *must* win Ohio, & that he's lagging...

Those 200 people I'm sure were impressed.

Keep spinning.

 

[buckshot24]

Charles really has a hard on for me, he just can't resist taking shots at me.

 

[umbrella39]

Here's a little something to sing to him if you manage to seal the deal:

New boy in the neighborhood
Lives downstairs and it is understood.
He’s there just to take good care of me,
Like he’s one of the family.

Charles in Charge
Of our days and our nights
Charles in Charge
Of our wrongs and our rights

And I sing, I want,
I want Charge in Charge of me.

 

[buckshot24]

Lol

 

[jackstar7]

The lesson: trust buck and go vote Obama so it isn't a Romney blowout.

 

[buckshot24]

Reading Silver's post today pretty much confirms what I said about him yesterday. He really doesn't understand how elections work in the trenches.

He was talking about Romney going into Pennsylvania and he asks if Romney will be able to "flip" enough votes to win the state. At this point these races are all about turnout and not trying to "flip" already committed voters. He has a "zero sum game" way to look at the electorate which totally misses the point of why Romney is in Pennsylvania.

 

[TraumaRN]

Reading Silver's post today pretty much confirms what I said about him yesterday. He really doesn't understand how elections work in the trenches.

He was talking about Romney going into Pennsylvania and he asks if Romney will be able to "flip" enough votes to win the state. At this point these races are all about turnout and not trying to "flip" already committed voters. He has a "zero sum game" way to look at the electorate which totally misses the point of why Romney is in Pennsylvania.

Romney in Pennsylvania is essentially an electoral hail mary. At this point it is as you point out a matter of turnout. Romney honestly should have been in Pennsylvania earlier if he wanted to try and court any swing voters.

 

[randomrogue]

What I find amazing is that Romney will probably net more EC votes than Carter. Carter was crap but I'd probably rather have him as president than Romney.

 

[GarfieldtheCat]

Reading Silver's post today pretty much confirms what I said about him yesterday. He really doesn't understand how elections work in the trenches.

He was talking about Romney going into Pennsylvania and he asks if Romney will be able to "flip" enough votes to win the state. At this point these races are all about turnout and not trying to "flip" already committed voters. He has a "zero sum game" way to look at the electorate which totally misses the point of why Romney is in Pennsylvania.

Of, course in your mind you think he doesn't understand, but in reality, the rest of us (and Nate himself) do.

SO your gut instincts outweigh 8 solid years of reporting and predicting elections by Nate Silver? LOL!

Behold the modern GOP supporter....anything that disagrees with your fantasy world is simply labeled wrong without no reason or evidence. Good job buckshot, Karl Rove would be proud of you!

You certainly convinced me, I mean Nate only has done this for 8 years with high accuracy, and is totally open with his methodology, while you simply state he is wrong without any facts. Bravo!

 

[jpeyton]

I'm sold.

 

[Retro Rob]

Just wondering.

Is this the most important election in history? I've heard people say that, but if so, what makes this one so historical?

I will admit, I can't recall an election that meant so much to people than this one. Just wondering why...

 

[Balt]

Just wondering.

Is this the most important election in history? I've heard people say that, but if so, what makes this one so historical?

Eh, kinda doubt it. If for no other reason than my suspicion that this country will look pretty much the same in 4 years regardless of who gets elected. I won't claim that an Obama and Romney administration would look the same (as some people will), but I don't expect they would lead to vastly different outcomes, either.

 

[Jhhnn]

Those 200 people I'm sure were impressed.

Keep spinning.

Heh. Your duh-versions are less than amusing. I'll let Krugman explain it to you, with a chart from RCP, not exactly a lefty site-

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/math-is-hard/

Don't read it, I mean I trust you won't, given past performance. It might poison your mind, pollute your precious bodily fluids, burn your eyes out, something, anything...

 

[berzerker60]

No, it's not all that overwhelmingly important. 2008 was a big deal, but despite the silly rhetoric of conservative True Believers, Obama is a champion of the very slightly reformed status quo, not some kind of Maoist revolutionary. Romney is basically the same thing, except his 'reform' is slanted even more towards the oligarchy.

I mean, could you even begin to compare this election's importance to Lincoln's election, or Washington's, or FDR's, or even Andrew Jackson's?

 

[First]

Romney isn't leading in any of RCP's last 8 national polls going back to Oct 28th, half of them ties. Latest today is Pew, which now has Obama up 3 after having Romney up 4 less than a month ago. Looking at voter ID in that poll and thereby their turnout projections shows Obama will win over 300 electoral votes, in addition to every other aggregated poll out there.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

This election is essentially white America's fight to retain absolute dominance over national politics. Romney is white America's candidate and if he goes down in flames with the economy where it's at today, it sends a pretty damning message to the GOP and their chances of ever winning another national election with the same playbook that has been wildly successful for them over the last 50-60 years.

If the Democrats can beat them with a coalition of minority voters and women it essentially means the GOP must radically shift their messaging, which could very well alienate a large portion of their base and cause a major schism in the party. I'm very intrigued to see what the after effects of a GOP loss Tuesday will look like, if it happens.