Some polls now have Romney ahead.

Discussion in 'Politics and News' started by Matt1970, Oct 6, 2012.

  1. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    I guess the problem with that is the state polls have this, what I'd call, a very optimistic for the Democrats turnout. If it isn't right on the national level then it won't be for the states either. States where Obama is up 1-3 points could switch to Romney.

    Plus, you're missing what I'm saying. It isn't National polls vs State polls. It's turnout.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332413/obama-attracting-smaller-crowds-mccain-08-eliana-johnson

    This can't be good for Obama, is the magic gone?

    These types of stories are another reason I think our guys will come out to vote in much larger numbers than 2008.
    I think Romney will still win but it might be narrower. Sandy has thrown this race for a little bit of a loop.
     
    #1201 buckshot24, Nov 3, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  2. GarfieldtheCat

    GarfieldtheCat Diamond Member

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    538 has OBama up to almost 84% now.

    He also lists 22 new battleground state polls, in 19 of them Obama is ahead, 2 tied, and only 1 is Romney ahead.

    Even Rasmussen has a tie in their state poll of Ohio, and they always lean to the GOP.
     
  3. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    They do not always lean Republican, even Silver wouldn't say that.

    That poll is really weird though. They have Obama up 56-41 among early voters which is 40% of the sample. For the race to be tied Romney would need a 54.3-44.3 election day margin. That poll also has independents going to Obama by 9 polls. Definitely not what we've seen in the majority of polls. Sandy could be giving Obama a bump.
     
  4. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    Well, that's just because all of the polls are oversampling Democrats, dontchaknow. Except for Rasmussen, who shows a tie. And Gallup, which has been the least consisten pollster all year and hasn't polled anything in a week, and whose own recent party ID article makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    Some people just want to believe what they want to believe. They'll put on a tie and ask 20 friends if the tie looks good or bad. 18 will say the tie looks bad and 2 will say it looks good, so they'll decide to wear the tie because they like the answer the 2 gave more than the 18. It's human nature.
     
  5. a777pilot

    a777pilot Diamond Member

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    Mr. Romney wins with 320 EC votes.
     
  6. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    You have electoral college Tourette's. Seek help.
     
  7. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Well, we're going to find out about that.

    What is wrong with the Gallup ID article? It doesn't make sense because it has numbers that you don't agree with?
    You just can't let it go haha.
     
  8. Jhhnn

    Jhhnn Lifer

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    So you believe Gallup in the face of all the others, apparently because it's what you want to believe.

    Turnout? Dems aren't staying home- far from it. While we liked the 2008 Obama better than the 2012 Obama, we didn't utterly detest McCain. Nor is it like the Repub base is wild about Mitt, either. He's tried to morph himself into Colbert's mythical "Rick Parry", but that's not working very well. Repubs vote for him out of brand loyalty, which isn't an expression of enthusiasm, at all.. Their hatred for Obama hasn't changed a bit, so that part is a wash.

    Fluffing up attendance at rallies? Repubs rally harder when they're scared...
     
  9. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    No, I don't. This poll and the state polls converged at the end of the race in 2008. They are not doing so this year. So we've got two party affiliation polls that have historically been close in determining the turnout and we have state/national polls that have a different voter turnout.

    So no, I am not blindly believing one and rejecting the other. I am not ignoring the party affiliation polls which is what Silver and the rest are doing.
    This may be the case and we're about to see if it is. Obama 2012 drawing less than McCain in Ohio at the same venue isn't a very good sign for your guy.
    Mitt has grown on me, I wasn't excited by any of the candidates to be honest.
    We'll see about that soon.
    This is just spin. You're dismissing almost 10 times larger crowds for Romney (from this story) because those republicans are scared? HAHA that is absurd.
     
  10. Balt

    Balt Lifer

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    lol. You are either joking or you ARE a joke.
     
  11. Capt Caveman

    Capt Caveman Lifer

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    #1211 Capt Caveman, Nov 3, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  12. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Romney gets 537 EC votes. He loses one of the votes out of Maine.:p
     
  13. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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  14. Capt Caveman

    Capt Caveman Lifer

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  15. First

    First Lifer

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    You know you're desperate for good news when the best thing you can point to after polls show Romney behind in the last 19 of 20 battleground polls, is crowds. Lol Ron Paul crowds are huge!.
     
  16. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    I guess I don't understand how drawing less than McCain in the same venue a few days before the election in the most important state is a good sign.
     
  17. rockyct

    rockyct Diamond Member

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    It's not a sign one way or the other.
     
  18. Blackjack200

    Blackjack200 Lifer

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    I've read the last couple of pages of this thread, and I also read Nate Silver's most recent article, and I think you're closer to agreeing with him than you realize.

    The essence of both of your arguments are: the battleground state polling could be wrong, and if it is, Romney could win. The difference is he puts the probability of that being the case at about 17% while it seems like you think it's more likely than not.

    What will be interesting if you end up being right is how Silver will respond. Obviously he would want to figure out what went wrong and adjust his model to account for it, but at the same time, the pollsters would be doing the same thing, adjusting their methods. So it would be difficult for him to interpret the numbers in 2014 or 2016
     
  19. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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  20. ivwshane

    ivwshane Lifer

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  21. Jhhnn

    Jhhnn Lifer

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    The Franklin county fairgrounds indoor arena is a small venue-

    http://www.thelantern.com/campus/ob...on-the-fight-in-central-ohio-return-1.2943743

    Obviously packed with 2800 ticket holders... probably the max crowd allowed by law. He probably would have drawn as large a crowd as whatever venue he chose would allow.

    http://www.thisweeknews.com/content...to-hilliard-crowd-you-know-where-i-stand.html

    "You know where I stand" isn't something that anybody could believe coming from Mitt...
     
  22. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    The other difference being that Silver's 17% (it will be lower tomorrow) is based on data and intelligent analysis, and his >50% is based on ignorance and wishful thinking.

    Which, in a way, is a nice example of left versus right in most things these days.
     
  23. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Yeah, we're both hedging our bets!:p
    He's right down the middle with the bias argument. He feels its just as likely that Obama is being under represented in the polling as it is that Romney is. I'm just super skeptical of a turnout that is pretty much like 2008. I need very good evidence to believe that this is going to be the case, such as an actual vote. There is evidence in some polls that it won't.

    I re-read his latest post and he doesn't talk about turnout at all. Which I think is a big mistake. Silver is, I think, "too smart" if that makes any sense. He's being too analytical and counting on the data too much and not factoring in other pieces of information that don't have to do with raw numbers.

    I'm not sure if you remember this but Kirk Gibson in 1988 was voted MVP of the National League. His stat line wasn't all that great compared to Daryl Strawberry.

    Gibby
    .290BA/25HR/76 RBI

    Strawberry
    .269BA/39HR/101 RBI

    Statistically Strawberry had a better year. Stats, however, weren't the only thing that made Gibson who he was as a player. There are intangibles that both players had that made Gibson overall a better player for his team that year.

    I know Silver is huge in sabermetrics and that is where he first made a name for himself. I wonder what he'd have to say about that MVP race.

    Anyway the point is that I think Silver's model is too mechanical and it would pick "Daryl Strawberry" as MVP over Gibson because it ignores some intangibles and relies on the numbers too much.

    I don't blame him at all however. It's going to take a massive failure for him to want to change his model and I hope he gets the chance starting November 7th.:p
    I'd think he'd do it in a way that would rely less on the top line of polling reports and would try to figure out what the likely turnout would be and adjust his polls accordingly.
     
  24. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    LOL

    John, this is weak stuff bro. If they felt they could fill a stadium or larger venue they would have booked one.
     
  25. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Just unblock me. If you're going to keep talking about me you may as well. This is weird how you keep making comments but I'm blocked.