This IPC discussion is grating on my nerves, it's time for some factual analysis, instead of conjecture:
Datapoint 1: Yorkfield has an average 7 % IPC advantage over Deneb
proofed
here by comparing the Q9650 and the PhII X4 945, both at 3 GHz
Datapoint 2: Nehalem has an average 7 % IPC advantage over Yorkfield (without Turbo or HT)
proofed
here by comparing i7-965 and the QX9770
Datapoint 3: Sandy Bridge has an average 12 % IPC advantage over Nehalem
calculated from the leaked benches and the Anandtech preview
(not as exact as the other two Datapoints, because the existing comparisons are suboptimal)
Ergo, to match Sandy Bridge's IPC Bulldozer would need an approximate IPC boost of 30 % over Deneb (1.07 * 1.08 * 1.12 ~ 1.30) and that is indeed an unrealistically high jump.
However, with Barcelona AMD achieved an IPC boost of 15-18 % with relatively few major enhancements to the architecture and considering that the core/module architecture gets a huge overhaul in Bulldozer (as can be seen in
this article by David Kanter), an IPC boost of 15-20 % is not an unrealistic proposition for Bulldozer.
A boost of at least 12,8 % is already confirmed by the "50 % over Magny-Cours" statement, however, because of the shared architecure the behavior in single thread situations will be different, with a greater boost to be expected.
So while it is very probable that BD won't match Sandy on IPC, an IPC for BD on the level of Nehalem and maybe a bit above is not a totally unreasonable expectation.
Statement: Should the actual IPC of BD "completely suck" [sic], I give you alle every right to knock AMD for it, for a duration of 5 years after this Statement evaluetes to TRUE.