[SemiAccurate] Intel kills off the 10nm process

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Jun 5, 2017
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https://semiaccurate.com/2019/01/25/why-semiaccurate-called-10nm-wrong/

Charlie's got a new article regarding 10 nm. He agrees with me now that Intel instead of killing 10 nm off completely will just ship some relatively low volume parts and will just have to be creative with binning.

Intel IMO needs to go to 7 ASAP (ie: Products out in 1H 2021)
They have a lot to do to hit 2021 - they need a new design (Most likely an MCM and they need to tailor it to the new node) One of charlie's articles had an INTC internal memo saying they wont be competitive until 2023. I think maybe getting a CEO in place immediately would help too - who is running that place?
 

moinmoin

Senior member
Jun 1, 2017
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Do you think that TSMC/Samsung will share their know-how with Intel?

Why there are not companies offering 14/10/7nm in China, Russia or Middle east? They have capital to buy whatever they want. Why it is Exclusive only in Taiwan/Korea? Maybe because it is not just that simple as buying 7nm-ready tool from ASML and pressing power button.
Of course TSMC/Samsung won't share their know-how with Intel expect when licensed. Of course ASML doesn't deliver complete fabs that work on the press of a power button. But the opposite extreme, ASML delivering the tools and every single manufacturer starting EUVL R&D from scratch is equally inane. The whole EUVL research had been going for near two decades now, including essentially a deployment delay of more than one decade, it a huge feedback loop with a lot of different participating companies.
 
Apr 27, 2000
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Do you think that TSMC/Samsung will share their know-how with Intel?
If Intel makes it worth their while, sure. I can see a future in which Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and many smaller fabs pool resources to reach the limits of transistor density. TSMC might make it their on their own, but the likelihood that they'll do so "in good order" would be significantly increased if they cooperated with others. I, for one, do not really favor the formation of monopolies, but from a strictly technological point-of-view, it appears to me that many established foundry companies may wash out well before reaching the limits of process shrinks.

Why there are not companies offering 14/10/7nm in China, Russia or Middle east? They have capital to buy whatever they want. Why it is Exclusive only in Taiwan/Korea? Maybe because it is not just that simple as buying 7nm-ready tool from ASML and pressing power button.
Mubadala thought they could buy their way into the semiconductor foundry business. They already threw in the towel. It's not just a matter of having the resources . . . it's about being able to monetize your product after you've poured billions of dollars into research and development. Companies like TSMC and Samsung are still profiting from their drive towards 3nm. GF gave up. Russian and Chinese concerns seem content to pick off what tech they can from pioneers so that they can push also-ran nodes at a discount. Intel's future is hazy. They still have a solid shot at 7nm, but there is a risk that they'll wash out too.
 
Mar 13, 2006
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Since for 7nm Intel will be using EUV tools and those will be already in use for some time at TSMC and Samsung Intel may be able to avoid early pitfalls. That is if they don't deviate from common industry practices and try to bite off more than they can chew again.
Intel has had EUV tools on prem for longer than Samsung or TSMC. In 2012 Intel poured $4.2B into ASML to fund development. I believe intel was the only buyer of EUV equipment for the first year or two. I’m pulling this out of my butt, but I recall intel ordering the first four EUV machines, and it took a year for ASML to build them.

I believe intel has had to go through all the pitfalls. At the time intel was far out on the bleeding edge. This was before the 10nm debacle.
 
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jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
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They have a lot to do to hit 2021 - they need a new design (Most likely an MCM and they need to tailor it to the new node) One of charlie's articles had an INTC internal memo saying they wont be competitive until 2023. I think maybe getting a CEO in place immediately would help too - who is running that place?
They have the MCM - after all that's what Cascade Lake-AP and Cooper Lake are; not to mention the Rapids with EMIB/Forveros. But yeah, they can't wait. If they can't deliver 7 in 2021 they need to talk to TSMC or Samsung and fab there, even if it's only the CPU tile.

Imagine if AMD gets to TSMC 5 nm while almost all of Intel's server sales are still 14 nm, and that's just AMD.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
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They have the MCM - after all that's what Cascade Lake-AP and Cooper Lake are; not to mention the Rapids with EMIB/Forveros. But yeah, they can't wait. If they can't deliver 7 in 2021 they need to talk to TSMC or Samsung and fab there, even if it's only the CPU tile.

Imagine if AMD gets to TSMC 5 nm while almost all of Intel's server sales are still 14 nm, and that's just AMD.
If Intel can’t do 7nm in volume, they will lose game. No way TSMC can ramp enough volume for Intel.
 


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