Say what you will, but Tebow freaking wins.

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Nov 3, 2004
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OK well I don't agree with that, do you have a link?

I guess I have to crunch some new numbers then.



Link? I suppose I misunderstood it then

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/tag/_/name/air-yards-per-attempt

Also, if you don't agree with that definition and want to use yours, how could that number 12 even possibly be remotely correct??? It's like 2x higher than his YPA.

By your definition, it would be impossible for one's AYPA to be higher than one's YPA, because they're calculated exactly the same way, except AYPA doesn't include YAC (which would virtually always increase the value)

EDIT: Actually, you're talking about Air Yards per completion, it seems...
 
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AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
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You guys are confusing air yards per attempt with adjusted yards per attempt.

I'd never heard of air yards per attempt before. It's somewhat interesting just to see whether QBs are throwing it far or not, but it's not useful for determining efficiency. I think it might be interesting to compare QBs based on air yards gained per attempt. That is, just figure out yards per attempt but subtract yards after catch to see which QBs are connecting on deep balls and which are relying on their receivers. Throwing it deep a bunch doesn't help much if you don't get many completions.

Adjusted yards per attempt assigns yardage values to touchdowns and interceptions and incorporates them into total yards. It's something like (passing yards + 20*TDs - 45*INTs) / attempts. Different statisticians assign different values to touchdowns and interceptions.
 
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GotIssues

Golden Member
Jan 31, 2003
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And I will be a nightmare on these forums if the Broncos win, and you guys will all be sore losers like you were after the Steelers game, insisting that he got lucky instead of giving the man his due.

1/2 season + 1 playoff game does not make Tebow a good QB, and most certainly not to the level that you seem to be putting him on. Before you get on your knees for Tebow praising him however you want to praise him, let him play in the league for a few years. Stop being some blind homer over it.

With Tebow, the offense runs consistently below average with a few games where they click. Their defense has been keeping it close, and Tebow has been able to capitalize in close games. Keeping cool under pressure is a valuable asset that Tebow has.

Unfortunately, there is only so long you can ride a razor thin margin of error before things start to collapse. Baseball is the same way - watch teams that jump out to a good season start and check how they won. If they have a large amount of 1-run games, 9/10 you'll see them collapse as the season goes along. But every once in a while, a team has a magic season and keeps riding 1 run games (White Sox in 2005 year is one of them).

Now, the Broncos may have a magic season where everything goes right for them in the playoffs, but in the long run, close games tend to average out. Should the Broncos ride the Tebow-train as long as possible? Definitely. Will the Tebow-train keep running for several years? Although it's not impossible, I just don't believe it will.

Additionally, Air Yards per Attempt or whatever ass-backwards retarded stat you pulled up as magical proof is such a dumb stat. Sit back and actually look at it. Think about it. If there is any shred of sanity left, you'll realize how ridiculous it is. If you aren't careful, you'll turn into a baseball-esque nut that comes up with overly specific stats that really don't amount to anything. "Well, who is #1 in day games outside while wearing eyeblack playing on grass in temperatures above 70 and humidity levels at 60%-70%? TEBOW!"
 

AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
15,628
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Unfortunately, there is only so long you can ride a razor thin margin of error before things start to collapse. Baseball is the same way - watch teams that jump out to a good season start and check how they won. If they have a large amount of 1-run games, 9/10 you'll see them collapse as the season goes along. But every once in a while, a team has a magic season and keeps riding 1 run games (White Sox in 2005 year is one of them).

This is basically the story of the Atlanta Falcons last season. They won so many close games and finished the season with a 13-3 record, good for a first round bye. The analysts were praising them for being "cool under pressure" but in reality they could have easily gone 9-7 if only a few things hadn't gone their way. And what do you know, they got blown out in their first playoff game.
 

Zargon

Lifer
Nov 3, 2009
12,218
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1/2 season + 1 playoff game does not make Tebow a good QB, and most certainly not to the level that you seem to be putting him on. Before you get on your knees for Tebow praising him however you want to praise him, let him play in the league for a few years. Stop being some blind homer over it.

With Tebow, the offense runs consistently below average with a few games where they click. Their defense has been keeping it close, and Tebow has been able to capitalize in close games. Keeping cool under pressure is a valuable asset that Tebow has.

Unfortunately, there is only so long you can ride a razor thin margin of error before things start to collapse. Baseball is the same way - watch teams that jump out to a good season start and check how they won. If they have a large amount of 1-run games, 9/10 you'll see them collapse as the season goes along. But every once in a while, a team has a magic season and keeps riding 1 run games (White Sox in 2005 year is one of them).

Now, the Broncos may have a magic season where everything goes right for them in the playoffs, but in the long run, close games tend to average out. Should the Broncos ride the Tebow-train as long as possible? Definitely. Will the Tebow-train keep running for several years? Although it's not impossible, I just don't believe it will.

Additionally, Air Yards per Attempt or whatever ass-backwards retarded stat you pulled up as magical proof is such a dumb stat. Sit back and actually look at it. Think about it. If there is any shred of sanity left, you'll realize how ridiculous it is. If you aren't careful, you'll turn into a baseball-esque nut that comes up with overly specific stats that really don't amount to anything. "Well, who is #1 in day games outside while wearing eyeblack playing on grass in temperatures above 70 and humidity levels at 60%-70%? TEBOW!"

actual length of the pass completion is not a retarded stat. it will give an idea of true accuracy down field

the rest I mostly agree with
 

GotIssues

Golden Member
Jan 31, 2003
1,631
0
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actual length of the pass completion is not a retarded stat. it will give an idea of true accuracy down field

the rest I mostly agree with

Someone already stated why there is a huge difference between throwing short and long, especially in Tebow's case. With no safety help, you really don't have to be that accurate, you just have to hit a 10'x10' window that your receiver can get to. In this case, it's about as useful a stat as completion percentage while running bubble screens when the defense is in prevent.
 
Nov 3, 2004
10,491
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actual length of the pass completion is not a retarded stat. it will give an idea of true accuracy down field

the rest I mostly agree with

I don't think that gives you any measure of "true accuracy" but it does show tendencies of a QB to go deep or short or whatnot.
 

Zargon

Lifer
Nov 3, 2009
12,218
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Someone already stated why there is a huge difference between throwing short and long, especially in Tebow's case. With no safety help, you really don't have to be that accurate, you just have to hit a 10'x10' window that your receiver can get to. In this case, it's about as useful a stat as completion percentage while running bubble screens when the defense is in prevent.

I don't think that gives you any measure of "true accuracy" but it does show tendencies of a QB to go deep or short or whatnot.

yup

but it can show glaring weakness in a qb's game

I'm a bears fan, and I remember how often Orton would attempt 20+ yd passes.........
 

rise

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2004
9,116
46
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I really think completion percentage is a totally misleading stat, not just for Tebow but for all QB's. Which is the underlying message really.
Wow.

Whats the most important stat then (obviously excluding wins)? Comp % is not only one of the most important barometers of a qbs ability it is the most difficult to "fool". Do you notice all the great qbs, with their SB rings, dominate the top of career comp percentage lists?

Deep yards per completion? Thats what you're on about now? That might be one of the most easily skewered stat for one by garbage time deep throws trying to pull within reach. And as someone above noted, deep throws rest a lot more on receivers ability to out-jump, out-fight the DB.

I was kind of liking all the excitement tebow generated but really, people are just looking for ways to make him more than he is.
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
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I predict a massive crash and burn for Tebow this weekend.
3 picks and 0 passing touchdowns.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
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I predict a massive crash and burn for Tebow this weekend.
3 picks and 0 passing touchdowns.

The word in Vegas is it should have been a 15+ spread but so much action on broncos they had to keep lowering it.

Believe.
 

angminas

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2006
3,331
26
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My prediction for the last game against the Patriots came true, so I think I'll go with it again. Too much x-factor in this game to do much predicting.


I'd love to see the Broncos win, but I won't be surprised by anything at this point. My guess is it will come down to turnovers.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
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With the highest spread I just hope it's a great game.

I walked past a steelers fan buddy at work for the first time since the game and yelled go tebow!
 

preslove

Lifer
Sep 10, 2003
16,754
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Tebow completed a hell of a lot of passes in college because he had Percy Harvin and several other very good receivers. To run the spread effectively, you need fast and reliable receivers, who you move around to make mismatches.

Has there been any talk about how the broncos can acquire some better receivers?