Say goodbye to ISIS: Airstrikes begin in Syria

[unokitty]

War against Isis: US strategy in tatters

America's plans to fight Islamic State are in ruins as the militant group's fighters come close to capturing Kobani and have inflicted a heavy defeat on the Iraqi army west of Baghdad.

The US-led air attacks launched against Islamic State (also known as Isis) on 8 August in Iraq and 23 September in Syria have not worked. President Obama's plan to "degrade and destroy" Islamic State has not even begun to achieve success. In both Syria and Iraq, Isis is expanding its control rather than contracting.

The battle for Anbar, which was at the heart of the Sunni rebellion against the US occupation after 2003, is almost over and has ended with a decisive victory for Isis...

The US's failure to save Kobani, if it falls, will be a political as well as military disaster. Indeed, the circumstances surrounding the loss of the beleaguered town are even more significant than the inability so far of air strikes to stop Isis taking 40 per cent of it. At the start of the bombing in Syria, President Obama boasted of putting together a coalition of Sunni powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to oppose Isis, but these all have different agendas to the US in which destroying IS is not the first priority. ..

Where was the last civil war that Obama employed his bombers?

Libya?

How did that turn out?

IMHO, none of those middle eastern civil wars are worth the blood of one more US solider.

Time to bring the troops home.

Uno

 

[xaeniac]

War against Isis: US strategy in tatters



Where was the last civil war that Obama employed his bombers?

Libya?

How did that turn out?

IMHO, none of those middle eastern civil wars are worth the blood of one more US solider.

Time to bring the troops home.

Uno

it has been a failure and will continue to be so. You can not win just by utilizing air power. The enemy will adapt and overcome. At this time they can just wait us out as Americans are very much impatient.

 

[Fern]

Hmm...yes. As it is, they have no way of successfully attacking and spreading into areas with actual power - Turkey, Iran, Israel...not sure about Jordan.
The US and allies are forcing themselves into a fight - once again - and are forcing ISIS to focus on THEM instead of just the local ME area. This is how you make the next 9\11.
-snip-

I don't know if true, but there are published reports that ISIS has released a 5 year plan of conquest etc.: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...aq-demand-Muslims-world-swear-allegiance.html

If true, IDK if they can realistically achieve it. However, I would expect them to go after like Kuwait who are small yet have plenty of oil wealth etc to make it worth their time/effort.

Iran is Shia, and they are Persians not Arab, so I don't expect ISIS to try anything there any time soon. (Eventually, however, the mere fact that Iran is Shia may make them a target.)

Saudi Arabia, IIRC, has the largest military force over there, so assuming they can actually fight ISIS may well avoid them also.

But otherwise, if left unchecked I expect ISIS to keep trying to expand their territory.

Fern

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I don't know if true, but there are published reports that ISIS has released a 5 year plan of conquest etc.: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...aq-demand-Muslims-world-swear-allegiance.html

If true, IDK if they can realistically achieve it. However, I would expect them to go after like Kuwait who are small yet have plenty of oil wealth etc to make it worth their time/effort.

Iran is Shia, and they are Persians not Arab, so I don't expect ISIS to try anything there any time soon. (Eventually, however, the mere fact that Iran is Shia may make them a target.)

Saudi Arabia, IIRC, has the largest military force over there, so assuming they can actually fight ISIS may well avoid them also.

But otherwise, if left unchecked I expect ISIS to keep trying to expand their territory.

Fern

They'll be able to consolidate some areas but caliphates have a distinct disadvantage over "normal" terrorism. The former requires a government with associated bureaucracies and liable to be more easily rendered unworkable than a movable loose association. The moment they claim a building as a base of operations, "POOF", gone. That's going to make their ultimate goal unworkable. Certainly they can make other areas in their control likewise useless, but there they've been effective was never all that well off anyway.

If they want to take on Turkey, by all means. One thing I know is that if Turkey feels genuinely threatened the chances of ISIS lasting more than a few months at best, at least in more than name is nil.

 

[Victorian Gray]

They'll be able to consolidate some areas but caliphates have a distinct disadvantage over "normal" terrorism. The former requires a government with associated bureaucracies and liable to be more easily rendered unworkable than a movable loose association. The moment they claim a building as a base of operations, "POOF", gone. That's going to make their ultimate goal unworkable. Certainly they can make other areas in their control likewise useless, but there they've been effective was never all that well off anyway.

If they want to take on Turkey, by all means. One thing I know is that if Turkey feels genuinely threatened the chances of ISIS lasting more than a few months at best, at least in more than name is nil.

The problem is, Turkey (at least parts of the govt. and general population) is apparently just fine with Syrian Kurds being slaughtered.

for example:

Turkey in the shadow of IS’s flag

"THE contrast could not be starker. On one side of a barbed-wire fence, beneath plumes of smoke from air strikes and amid the rattle of gunfire, the bearded fighters of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) closed their grip on Kobane, a Kurdish town on Syria’s northern border. On the other Turkey’s soldiers, with tanks and armoured personnel carriers, nonchalantly watch the show, stirring only to fire tear gas and beat back Kurdish protesters wanting to help their Syrian brethren."

http://www.economist.com/news/middl...-redound-turkeys-president-while-kobane-burns

and

"The second reason that the Turks are reluctant to save the Kurds in Syria is because they are Kurds. The far northeastern corner of Syria is mostly Kurdish, as is the area across the border in Turkey. (As is northern Iraq; I wrote last month about the Iraqi Kurds and their quest for independence.) For years, the Kurds in Turkey have been battling the central government for more rights; the Turkish government has often responded brutally, arbitrarily, and disproportionately. In Turkey, the Kurdish revolt has been led by the Kurdish Workers Party, or P.K.K., which has its own ruthless reputation. Its Syrian affiliate, the Democratic Union Party, is one of the dominant parties in northeastern Syria. To put it mildly, Turkish governments are not in the habit of helping Kurds, and certainly not the P.K.K.


Indeed, some Turks are so hostile to the Kurds that they have thrown their sympathies in this battle behind ISIS: during a recent gathering of Kurdish protesters in Ankara, the Turkish capital, Turkish police moved in holding their index fingers in the air—the same symbol that ISIS militants use when beheading prisoners. It is really not so surprising that Erdoğan would be reluctant to send his troops into Syria to save a group of embattled Kurds."


http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/turkey-kurds-battle-isis-kobani

 

[Fern]

The problem is, Turkey (at least parts of the govt. and general population) is apparently just fine with Syrian Kurds being slaughtered.
-snip-

True.

Frankly I'm surprised that Turkey has let in the Syrian Kurds they have up till now.

Fern

 

[Victorian Gray]

True.

Frankly I'm surprised that Turkey has let in the Syrian Kurds they have up till now.

Fern

Public relations initially. I think they've pretty much stopped letting them in at this point though.

 

[Jaskalas]

Sounds like Turkey has a lot of ISIS within their borders.

Once the party in Syria and Iraq dies down, Turkey may be a prime candidate for terrorist take over.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Sounds like Turkey has a lot of ISIS within their borders.

Once the party in Syria and Iraq dies down, Turkey may be a prime candidate for terrorist take over.

Not bloody likely.

 

[Jaskalas]

Not bloody likely.

Think of it as Democracy... via Genocide.

There is nothing that can stop it if the people in Turkey are loyal to ISIS. I'm saying IF. The fact that they won't fight this enemy, and the military pledges symbols of support - tells a great deal. There's a lot of Sunni loyalty to these Sunni terrorists.

We are witnessing indications that the people of Turkey identify with ISIS.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Think of it as Democracy... via Genocide.

There is nothing that can stop it if the people in Turkey are loyal to ISIS. I'm saying IF. The fact that they won't fight this enemy, and the military pledges symbols of support - tells a great deal. There's a lot of Sunni loyalty to these Sunni terrorists.

We are witnessing indications that the people of Turkey identify with ISIS.

No you are not. You are witnessing political manuvering on the part of the Turkish govt.. This has more to do with the Turkish govt. wanting to see the Syrian govt. fall and their hatred of Syrian Kurds. I also believe that they are trying to stir up the Turkish Kurds as a way of distracting the Turkish army.

Turkey is *not* Syria or Iraq is any way, shape or form.

 

[MongGrel]

Turkey is being a bitch in general atm.

They never liked Kurds and are parked on the border watching while wanting a no fly zone and denying access to the airfield NATO used for many years.

Pretty convenient for them, actually.

 

[squarecut1]

Sounds like Turkey has a lot of ISIS within their borders.

Once the party in Syria and Iraq dies down, Turkey may be a prime candidate for terrorist take over.

That is pretty clueless stuff.

 

[Fern]

No you are not. You are witnessing political manuvering on the part of the Turkish govt.. This has more to do with the Turkish govt. wanting to see the Syrian govt. fall and their hatred of Syrian Kurds. I also believe that they are trying to stir up the Turkish Kurds as a way of distracting the Turkish army.

Turkey is *not* Syria or Iraq is any way, shape or form.

See bolded: Yeah, that's what it looks like to me. (Although I wouldn't specify just "Syrian" Kurds. Turkey no likely Turkish Kurds and the PKK either.)

Turkey has a large military. I don't ISIS messing with Turkey any time soon.

Fern

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Think of it as Democracy... via Genocide.

There is nothing that can stop it if the people in Turkey are loyal to ISIS. I'm saying IF. The fact that they won't fight this enemy, and the military pledges symbols of support - tells a great deal. There's a lot of Sunni loyalty to these Sunni terrorists.

We are witnessing indications that the people of Turkey identify with ISIS.

At this time it is not to the advantage of Turkey to strike. The Kurds have had a nasty past with Turkey and blowing up mailboxes in occupied areas was SOP. Turks in general have no interest in joining ISIS, and if the equation changes and Turkey is threatened in reality ISIS won't know what hit them. They won't hold back. They won't care about image or political correctness. I expect it to be utterly ruthless, but don't expect them to fix the regions problems. They won't have an interest in any of that.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I wonder how much gassing was done by Assad and how much by ISIS.

 

[squarecut1]

I wonder how much gassing was done by Assad and how much by ISIS.

They are monsters, but it will take them hundred years to approach the brutality of Assad. Plus it is not like chemical weapons can be made in a trailer by some militia.

Fox news? Surely you can do better than that.

 

[Genx87]

They are monsters, but it will take them hundred years to approach the brutality of Assad. Plus it is not like chemical weapons can be made in a trailer by some militia.

Fox news? Surely you can do better than that.

I think they have proved in the last summer to be more brutal than Assads regime.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

They are monsters, but it will take them hundred years to approach the brutality of Assad. Plus it is not like chemical weapons can be made in a trailer by some militia.

Fox news? Surely you can do better than that.

I have no doubt that Assad is brutal but considering that ISIS has gone wandering about the countryside beheading whoever opposes them it's hard to imagine this kinder ISIS you speak of. Cutting off the heads of people for what is essentially a PR move and you think they aren't capable? Further ISIS isn't a band of sadists roaming the countryside. It's highly organized and has a complex and efficient funding mechanism, while occupying areas where chemical weapons actually exist, not some mythical stockpile of Saddams. It may be that ISIS hasn't had the opportunity, but they have the ruthless nature and resources to make it a distinct possibility. On that basis I've wondered about ISIS using such means long before this article. That does not mean that Assad is innocent, but it does not mean he has exclusive rights or access to merciless means of destruction.

 

[Victorian Gray]

See bolded: Yeah, that's what it looks like to me. (Although I wouldn't specify just "Syrian" Kurds. Turkey no likely Turkish Kurds and the PKK either.)

The govt. and the Turkish Kurds have come to an awful lot of serious compromises and accommodations over the past several decades. That's why I place this squarely on Erdogan. I think that he's deliberately trying to stir things up with Turkish Kurds to distract the army while he continues in his attempts to desecularize Turkey and further his regional political/military aspirations. Attempts, I firmly believe, that will ultimately fail but will cause tremendous damage to the country at large.

Toss in the fact that he hates Assad, hates the Syrian Kurds, and doesn't like the Russians and you have a really messy situation indeed.

Turkey has a large military. I don't ISIS messing with Turkey any time soon.

Fern

Turkey has the only *serious* state military force in the region outside of Israel. Daesh is perfectly content to simply control the border in that area so that they can kill Shiite Kurds in Syria and close the border (with Turkey's help so far) to Turkish Kurds trying to get to Syria to help Syrian Kurds.

 

[Darwin333]

Damned right if someone is declaring war and saying "we're going to kill you"

Suffer the consequences.

If said threatening someone is a midget holding a water balloon and is a mile and half away from me, breaking out the .50 cal to snipe his ass isn't really on the table. That's just me though.

 

[Darwin333]

I'm not sure that would matter much, but I do have an alternative. People cannot buy new iphones while there is armed conflict that the US is engaging in. There would be peace.

And no reality TV at all. Shit, we'd mothball our entire fleet in a month flat.

 

[squarecut1]

If said threatening someone is a midget holding a water balloon and is a mile and half away from me, breaking out the .50 cal to snipe his ass isn't really on the table. That's just me though.

Then you are not American enough

 

[JEDI]

so why aren't the US airstrikes working?
how is ISIS still advancing?

and where the hell did ISIS get so many volunteers to be winning on TWO fronts despite US airpower against them?
(and exactly how many of them are there?)

 

[bshole]

so why aren't the US airstrikes working?
how is ISIS still advancing?

and where the hell did ISIS get so many volunteers to be winning on TWO fronts despite US airpower against them?
(and exactly how many of them are there?)

Just let them have their state. They need to have a civil war without western intervention. If nothing else, they are ready made enemy to keep Iran occupied for years to come.