Saw this on Reddit tonight - a 2007 "iPhone will fail" column

[Mopetar]

Hmmm. I didn't think it would get this level of response. I just thought it was a neat article... and a little funny given how things played out.

I'm feeling a bit like I unintentionally trolled the forum (bad mod!) and if so, I apologize. I just thought it was neat to go back and read what one analyst said before the launch and now look at how things turned out.

Reminds me of the Slashdot article from when the first iPod was released: "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame."
Some of the comments are fun to read as well.

Really though, there are probably hundreds of similar articles for all kinds of different companies. And there are probably articles where someone thinks a product will be the next big thing and that product eventually flopped.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Clearly, popularity is an indicator of quality.

Sorry buy Symbian had 60% marketshare when the iPhone came out. It still had 40% in 2009 and even into Q1 2010 at least. So then what?

the original iphone wasn't a success. sales were crap until apple worked out a subsidy deal with AT&T

even then the iphone didn't really take off until the 3GS. the 3G added MS Exchange and apps which started the whole bring your own phone to work deal

Yet the $600 phone sold as well as the Droid did for $200. Fine the Droid edged it out a little, but they were very comparable. 1.05 vs 1 million in 74 days. A $600 phone. WITH contract. Yet every iPhone launch makes Android launches a joke. When the iPhone 4 finally hit Verizon it outsold any previous phone on launch day/weekend.

But seriously, the whole iPhone thing did take off with the 3GS. It took a while for the apps thing to solidify and the 3G phone did it. The 3GS brought giant lines and the 4 redesign hit it out of the ball park. 6 hour wait? LOL

Hmmm. I didn't think it would get this level of response. I just thought it was a neat article... and a little funny given how things played out.

I'm feeling a bit like I unintentionally trolled the forum (bad mod!) and if so, I apologize. I just thought it was neat to go back and read what one analyst said before the launch and now look at how things turned out.

lol wanted to post something about that because I *knew* such a thread always heads in a certain direction.

 

[Eug]

Reminds me of the Slashdot article from when the first iPod was released: "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame."
Some of the comments are fun to read as well.

Really though, there are probably hundreds of similar articles for all kinds of different companies. And there are probably articles where someone thinks a product will be the next big thing and that product eventually flopped.

I thought the original iPod would sell, but wouldn't be an enormous seller. I was right on that one, because it required Firewire and a Mac.

I thought the original iPad would sell well, but wouldn't be an instant hit. I was wrong on that one. It was an instant hit.

BTW, in that context... I'm still not quite on board with the iPad. I have one, but I don't like using it that much. My GF uses it on the couch or whatever, but I find surfing on it a bit limiting, as is its single-user architecture. Furthermore, typing on it is a real PITA, esp. for a touch typist, and it's awkward to hold. I still much prefer using a laptop.

 

[CptObvious]

My first impression of the iPhone was that it was the phone I've always wanted but too expensive. Going from free dumbphones @ $40/month to a $200 phone @ $70/month, I thought it would only be a niche product. Credit to Apple & AT&T though, they marketed it well and got a bunch of people to buy one, even if some couldn't really afford it.

Even though I still don't own an iPhone, I give props to Apple for being the first phone maker to not give in to carriers and load their phones with a bunch of crap. I doubt Google or Microsoft would've had the balls to do it.

 

[MrX8503]

That's like saying a Toyota Supra or a Mazda RX7 was trash compared to a Camry. The car that's popular and selling well is a piss-poor substitute for the others to people who know how to use one. The original iphone was a joke compared to the competition for people who actually knew what to do with a smartphone, and demanded the appropriate features. The reason it's doing so well is most people don't need a smartphone, or even know how get the most use from one without an "app" for every website they visit.

Actually no, that's a bad analogy. Thats assuming that the iPhone sold well because of its popularity alone. The iPhone had a marketshare of zero when it started. Clearly the iPhone wiped the floor of the competition because it brought a next generation user experience. Same for the iPod, same for the iPad. Keep riding that popularity argument train.

If you think WinMo, BB, or Symbian is superior, then feel free to keep using those devices. Smartphone design of the past was a joke.

Why should I be limited to browsing the apps on a slow connection, tiny screen, and limited battery life? I don't need to install anything to search and buy apps for Android or Nokia from my PC.

You said you need iTunes to install apps. I'm telling you that's not true.

 

[Eug]

Even though I still don't own an iPhone, I give props to Apple for being the first phone maker to not give in to carriers and load their phones with a bunch of crap. I doubt Google or Microsoft would've had the balls to do it.

My Acer machines (two desktops, and one laptop) are OK (Win 7) machines.... but as configured out of the box, they sucked, because they were full of useless and confusing bloatware.

It's really quite annoying having to delete all that extra crap.

BTW, for my Sony Ericsson phones, I used to buy grey market, so no extra crap on them. Too bad their support software still sucked though.

 

[darkewaffle]

Sorry buy Symbian had 60% marketshare when the iPhone came out. It still had 40% in 2009 and even into Q1 2010 at least. So then what?

lol wanted to post something about that because I *knew* such a thread always heads in a certain direction.

Well the comment in question was essentially "that software was trash because it is now on the way out", so it was more relative to their current status. Symbian is essentially an abandoned platform these days and RIM is having all sorts of issues of their own, true, but I don't think that means what they did "pre iPhone" was trash. They made their own respective advances and progressed the market as well, though without the splash that the iPhone has had.

 

[Eug]

What RIM did pre-iPhone was trash from the UI point of view, IMHO. That may just be my own personal opinion, but I was telling people this years before the iPhone even came out. The only thing that RIM did really well was their email support.

 

[Munky]

Actually no, that's a bad analogy. Thats assuming that the iPhone sold well because of its popularity alone. The iPhone had a marketshare of zero when it started. Clearly the iPhone wiped the floor of the competition because it brought a next generation user experience. Same for the iPod, same for the iPad. Keep riding that popularity argument train.

If you think WinMo, BB, or Symbian is superior, then feel free to keep using those devices. Smartphone design of the past was a joke.

The analogy assumed no such thing. It was a response to your assumption that BB and Nokia UI were trash because they lost marketshare to the iphone, just like the Supra and the RX7 were discontinued while the Camry continues to sell well. Nobody in their right mind would judge quality based on sales figures.

You said you need iTunes to install apps. I'm telling you that's not true.

My point is you need itunes to do things other platforms can do without installing anything. So you can download apps directly to the phone, what else? Can you download or back up the install files without itunes? Can you back up and restore anything at all without itunes? Can you transfer files without itunes? Can you even use the phone without first activating it in itunes?

 

[alent1234]

yes
you can backup to icloud, restore from icloud and activate without itunes. don't need to back up the app install files because it will just restore the app from icloud for you.

and you can transfer files without itunes as well. a lot of apps even have integrated icloud and dropbox functionality

 

[Ns1]

Many things that Munky is bitching about are old Apple issues which are completely legitimate if you hate iTunes (and iTunes sucks ass on windows)

 

[Eug]

Yeah but if look at the greater population, most people actually like iTunes, including on Windows.

Furthermore, iTunes was light years beyond any other phone software in existence at the time the iPhone first came out, even if iTunes wasn't perfect.

I don't think I've EVER met anyone that like Sony's phone software, for example.

 

[bearxor]

Hmmm. I didn't think it would get this level of response. I just thought it was a neat article... and a little funny given how things played out.

I'm feeling a bit like I unintentionally trolled the forum (bad mod!) and if so, I apologize. I just thought it was neat to go back and read what one analyst said before the launch and now look at how things turned out.

I wouldn't sweat it. I love looking back at stuff like this. I remember hating on the iPad a LOT when it was announced. Think I tweeted that some sarcastic comment about a huge iPod touch.

Now it's my primary computing device.

 

[Ns1]

Yeah but if look at the greater population, most people actually like iTunes, including on Windows.

never met a windows user who dl'ed itunes who didn't have an iDevice

ymmv

 

[Eug]

never met a windows user who dl'ed itunes who didn't have an iDevice

Perhaps, but a lot of these Windows users who downloaded iTunes because of their iDevices actually like iTunes, or at least don't hate it.

There is a distinct Windows geek population that does hate iTunes of course, but my point was that they seem to be the minority.

OTOH, for a lot of these smartphones, or at least the feature-rich not-so-smart-phones, many people didn't even bother installing the accompanying software at all because it sucked so bad.

Have you known anyone that has liked Sony Ericsson or Nokia software from that era?

 

[MrX8503]

The analogy assumed no such thing. It was a response to your assumption that BB and Nokia UI were trash because they lost marketshare to the iphone, just like the Supra and the RX7 were discontinued while the Camry continues to sell well. Nobody in their right mind would judge quality based on sales figures.

Quality based on sales figures? Uh...I don't think this thread is about quality, its about innovation and what happened to the market as a result. BB/Nokia/WinMo did not innovate with the changing times so their OS is trash. Sales figures says this.

Not sure what your analogy about cars as to do with anything.

My point is you need itunes to do things other platforms can do without installing anything. So you can download apps directly to the phone, what else? Can you download or back up the install files without itunes? Can you back up and restore anything at all without itunes? Can you transfer files without itunes? Can you even use the phone without first activating it in itunes?

Your original post specifically said "need itunes to install apps", which is false. What is true is you need itunes to browse apps on the desktop.

As for all of your other questions, yes you can do all of that without iTunes.

 

[Munky]

Quality based on sales figures? Uh...I don't think this thread is about quality, its about innovation and what happened to the market as a result. BB/Nokia/WinMo did not innovate with the changing times so their OS is trash. Sales figures says this.

Not sure what your analogy about cars as to do with anything.

If you call something "trash" then you're making a judgement of its quality, simple as that. I'm pointing out the fallacy of judging quality based on sales.

Your original post specifically said "need itunes to install apps", which is false. What is true is you need itunes to browse apps on the desktop.

As for all of your other questions, yes you can do all of that without iTunes.

I'm sure you can do all that now. But I was referring to the original iphone, since this is what the thread is about.

 

[ponyo]

Perhaps, but a lot of these Windows users who downloaded iTunes because of their iDevices actually like iTunes, or at least don't hate it.

There is a distinct Windows geek population that does hate iTunes of course, but my point was that they seem to be the minority.

OTOH, for a lot of these smartphones, or at least the feature-rich not-so-smart-phones, many people didn't even bother installing the accompanying software at all because it sucked so bad.

Have you known anyone that has liked Sony Ericsson or Nokia software from that era?

I don't know any Windows users among family and friends who actually like iTunes. The only reason they install iTunes is because it's required for iOS products. Considering probably like 75% of all American family have some sort of iOS product in their home, they have iTunes installed. I can't speak for anyone other than people I know directly but all hate it or don't like it. Not a single person I know likes iTunes.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

My first impression of the iPhone was that it was the phone I've always wanted but too expensive. Going from free dumbphones @ $40/month to a $200 phone @ $70/month, I thought it would only be a niche product. Credit to Apple & AT&T though, they marketed it well and got a bunch of people to buy one, even if some couldn't really afford it.

Even though I still don't own an iPhone, I give props to Apple for being the first phone maker to not give in to carriers and load their phones with a bunch of crap. I doubt Google or Microsoft would've had the balls to do it.

Well it was $600 @ $60/month.... I think that's why the iPhone got a lot of negative flak. The $199 deal with the 3GS really solidified things though. It made the smartphone accessible to everyday users.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Actually quite honestly I thought the iPhone 1 was a piece of shit. I remember the summer it came out. I was in college still and a bunch of friends and I talked about it. One raved about it because he had one, the other was indifferent, and I thought the iPhone was retarded.

It went touch for many things, but other than that, what the hell could it do?

- My Nokia N82 could navigate with GPS. The iPhone could not. I could do turn by turn with Garmin. We were still years away from Android's free navigation, and most consumers thought they had to pay the carrier to use GPS with their Windows Mobile phones.

- No apps. My Nokia N82 installed apps no problem. I had an IM app, Opera Mobile and Opera Mini, etc.

- The 2MP shooter on the iPhone was trash. I had a 2mp cameraphone from 2005. My 5MP shooter had Xenon flash. Oh, and the iPhone didn't have LED flash. It couldn't even do video. I took my N82 snowboarding and filmed myself going downhill and have footage at 640x480. How many phones in the US did multimedia that well? LOL.

- I could tether with an app. How many Windows Mobile users here figured you could tether back in 2007?

- I had FM radio. No Pandora on iPhone or anything. No FM radio either.

- The iPhone launched at $600. It was later dropped to $400. Are you kidding me? Someone remind me if this was with a contract or not. Now back in the day we used "Asian stores" a lot which would give you nice prices. A $200 phone would be obtainable for $100 for example. The iPhone was only sold at Apple stores or AT&T, so there's no way you could get a "better deal." And for $600 I could get an unlocked phone, which at an Asian store would probably cost me $300 with contract. Why would I pay for a $600 iPhone?

So really just think about the iPhone today and imagine it with its original suite of apps. Think about a subpar camera with no flash and video. What made it a smartphone? I could barely call the original iPhone a smartphone, but I suppose it can be one. Sony Ericsson phones back then could do quite a bit too, but were dumbphones. The iPhone 2G to me was a touch-based dumbphone lacking in bells and whistles of then multimedia phones like the Nokia N-series.

Yea the original wasnt that great. I had a Sony Ericsson k850i with Sony Walkman, 3G connectivity, 5mp xenon flash camera during that time. I missed the Asian subsidies

Used to get international phones on the cheap.

 

[MrX8503]

If you call something "trash" then you're making a judgement of its quality, simple as that. I'm pointing out the fallacy of judging quality based on sales.




I'm sure you can do all that now. But I was referring to the original iphone, since this is what the thread is about.

It was a figure of speech. BB/Sybmian/WinMo was behind the times and you know it. Are you talking about the original or the current iPhone? Because you're bringing up the popular argument quite a bit and if I remember correctly the original iPhone wasn't all that popular. It wasn't until much later that iPhone sales skyrocketed.

 

[Rambusted]

Funny stuff, the last line alone was priceless. The whole thing could not have been more wrong even if it had been written today as a joke, uncanny really.

"(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)" I wonder if that line was at the end of the article when it was originally published?

 

[Eug]

Funny stuff, the last line alone was priceless. The whole thing could not have been more wrong even if it had been written today as a joke, uncanny really.

"(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)" I wonder if that line was at the end of the article when it was originally published?

That's a standard statement in many news sites for opinion articles.

Yea the original wasnt that great. I had a Sony Ericsson k850i with Sony Walkman, 3G connectivity, 5mp xenon flash camera during that time. I missed the Asian subsidies

Used to get international phones on the cheap.

I had the SE K800i and various other phones before that. That SE K800i solidified my opinion that the phone makers were completely clueless about the end user experience. Yeah, the phone itself was decent for the time, but only as an individual device, as the implementation of it in a connected digital and computerized world just sucked.

What the phone makers simply didn't understand was that a phone wasn't about being only a phone.

I don't know any Windows users among family and friends who actually like iTunes. The only reason they install iTunes is because it's required for iOS products. Considering probably like 75% of all American family have some sort of iOS product in their home, they have iTunes installed. I can't speak for anyone other than people I know directly but all hate it or don't like it. Not a single person I know likes iTunes.

In some ways it doesn't make complete sense. If they truly despised it, they'd delete it, and maybe get a different phone. So they can't hate it that much.

Or maybe they just hate it less than the competition's software? Or are you suggesting that the iPhone is so totally awesome that they'll install any sort of hated software just so they can use that totally awesome sexy phone that they want to make babies with?

In any case, most of my colleagues either like iTunes or at worst are indifferent to it. Nobody I know personally actually hates it.

 

[Munky]

It was a figure of speech. BB/Sybmian/WinMo was behind the times and you know it. Are you talking about the original or the current iPhone? Because you're bringing up the popular argument quite a bit and if I remember correctly the original iPhone wasn't all that popular. It wasn't until much later that iPhone sales skyrocketed.

I disagree. You can say that BB/Symbian weren't as simple to use as the iphone, but in return they also offered more capabilities. Both sides of the argument were behind in something, whether user experience for the non-techy user, or capabilities for the tech-savvy user.

From what I remember, people lined up in herds for the original iphone launch. It may not have gotten the market share right away, but it was popular enough to get attention.

 

[mnewsham]

Yeah the iPhone 1 was certainly popular from the get go, i remember watching a launch event at an at&t store on TV, tons of people waiting to get their hands on one.