Saw this on Reddit tonight - a 2007 "iPhone will fail" column

[pm]

I thought it was amusing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRelVKWbMAv0

Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move: Matthew Lynn
Commentary by Matthew Lynn - January 14, 2007 19:28 EST

I love the closing sentence:

It won't come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry.

It's amusing how badly someone can get something wrong. Regardless of how you feel about the iPhone as a product, you have to admit that it sold more than a few to its fans. I like the suggestion about not selling any Nokia stock too... good stuff.

 

[Jodell88]

The author is an idiot.

 

[zerocool84]

The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry,'' Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc., said in a report this month.

First, Apple is late to this party. The company didn't invent the personal computer or MP3 player, but it was among the pioneers of both products. Yet there is no shortage of phones out there. There are already big companies that dominate the space, all of whom will defend their turf. That means Apple will have to fight hard for every sale.

These are funny too but seriously though, how many people really thought the iPhone would change the smartphone market this drastically? As usual, hindsight is 20/20

Also make sure you guys read the date on the article before you comment.

 

[Jodell88]

Also make sure you guys read the date on the article before you comment.

:$

 

[stormkroe]

Maybe he was talking about the 'packaged meat' industry?

 

[Zaap]

These are funny too but seriously though, how many people really thought the iPhone would change the smartphone market this drastically? As usual, hindsight is 20/20

I recall the first time I saw an iPhone it was so far more advanced than any other phone I'd ever seen, that I thought definitely it would change the market drastically. I mean, I thought that was blatantly obvious, no crystal ball needed.There was nothing else like it. (No Android at the time, nothing else even close.)

The 'really big companies' as that reviewer opines, at the time were happy selling people the equivalent of 1980's digital watches compared to the iPhone- they weren't in any rush to have to compete with a much more advanced product. The idea that everyone was gung-ho to outgun the iPhone when they could have kept on wringing more money out of dumb-phones is pretty silly.

And when I first saw people start to jailbreak and use apps on their iPhones (before even Apple knew what a gold mine that was) I again thought it had to be obvious that consumers would soon want similar, and companies would have to follow suit. Again, I'm not saying I was some visionary for seeing it- just that it seemed like a no-brainer. Sort of like how seeing a color TV in 1954 would have been a no brainer that eventually everyone else would go that route too.

So just from simple observation, I would say that a reviewer who had actually compared an iPhone to the alternatives in Jan of 2007 and came to that conclusion, really wasn't paying attention.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Actually quite honestly I thought the iPhone 1 was a piece of shit. I remember the summer it came out. I was in college still and a bunch of friends and I talked about it. One raved about it because he had one, the other was indifferent, and I thought the iPhone was retarded.

It went touch for many things, but other than that, what the hell could it do?

- My Nokia N82 could navigate with GPS. The iPhone could not. I could do turn by turn with Garmin. We were still years away from Android's free navigation, and most consumers thought they had to pay the carrier to use GPS with their Windows Mobile phones.

- No apps. My Nokia N82 installed apps no problem. I had an IM app, Opera Mobile and Opera Mini, etc.

- The 2MP shooter on the iPhone was trash. I had a 2mp cameraphone from 2005. My 5MP shooter had Xenon flash. Oh, and the iPhone didn't have LED flash. It couldn't even do video. I took my N82 snowboarding and filmed myself going downhill and have footage at 640x480. How many phones in the US did multimedia that well? LOL.

- I could tether with an app. How many Windows Mobile users here figured you could tether back in 2007?

- I had FM radio. No Pandora on iPhone or anything. No FM radio either.

- The iPhone launched at $600. It was later dropped to $400. Are you kidding me? Someone remind me if this was with a contract or not. Now back in the day we used "Asian stores" a lot which would give you nice prices. A $200 phone would be obtainable for $100 for example. The iPhone was only sold at Apple stores or AT&T, so there's no way you could get a "better deal." And for $600 I could get an unlocked phone, which at an Asian store would probably cost me $300 with contract. Why would I pay for a $600 iPhone?

So really just think about the iPhone today and imagine it with its original suite of apps. Think about a subpar camera with no flash and video. What made it a smartphone? I could barely call the original iPhone a smartphone, but I suppose it can be one. Sony Ericsson phones back then could do quite a bit too, but were dumbphones. The iPhone 2G to me was a touch-based dumbphone lacking in bells and whistles of then multimedia phones like the Nokia N-series.

 

[pm]

Also make sure you guys read the date on the article before you comment.

Yeah, thanks for that, Zero. I quoted the date in the OP, but I should have made it more clear. Thanks. I changed the title too.

 

[Zaap]

Actually quite honestly I thought the iPhone 1 was a piece of shit. I remember the summer it came out. I was in college still and a bunch of friends and I talked about it. One raved about it because he had one, the other was indifferent, and I thought the iPhone was retarded.

Everything you say may be true, but there's an aspect that Apple understands that other companies don't seem to grasp, or be able to achieve.

Apple changes things, almost never by having the most cutting edge features. They do it by putting things in a package that consumers can understand, and then lust after like nothing else.

You can name phone after forgotten phone, and feature after ho-him feature that every other device at the time may have had- but none of it was a complete package and a game-changer the instant the average Joe and Jane Doe picked it up. Nokia couldn't excite the general public in the same way Apple could if their phones came with nude supermodels attached.

I remember people's videos shot on their "WhoCaresFX434383GMS-D.2Whatzit" back in 2006-7. People RAN away before having to suffer the guy who always wanted to show you "Check this video of me at this party last night!!" on a shitty postage stamp sized screen. You just remember it as super-cool because it was novel.

Now granted, the iPhone doesn't do much for me NOW, because IMHO Apple's weakness is they start off with a game-changer, change the game, but then get so damn successful they can rest on their laurels WAY too much and not be penalized for it. (Personally, I think the current iPhone is stuck with a layout that hasn't even entered the decade of the 2010's yet but if you're selling them to everyone and their 3 year old kid, why hustle?)

But in 2007 I think it was easy to see how the iPhone was revolutionary compared to the clunky forgettable things others were making.

 

[destrekor]

Everything you say may be true, but there's an aspect that Apple understands that other companies don't seem to grasp, or be able to achieve.

Apple changes things, almost never by having the most cutting edge features. They do it by putting things in a package that consumers can understand, and then lust after like nothing else.

You can name phone after forgotten phone, and feature after ho-him feature that every other device at the time may have had- but none of it was a complete package and a game-changer the instant the average Joe and Jane Doe picked it up. Nokia couldn't excite the general public in the same way Apple could if their phones came with nude supermodels attached.

I remember people's videos shot on their "WhoCaresFX434383GMS-D.2Whatzit" back in 2006-7. People RAN away before having to suffer the guy who always wanted to show you "Check this video of me at this party last night!!" on a shitty postage stamp sized screen. You just remember it as super-cool because it was novel.

Now granted, the iPhone doesn't do much for me NOW, because IMHO Apple's weakness is they start off with a game-changer, change the game, but then get so damn successful they can rest on their laurels WAY too much and not be penalized for it. (Personally, I think the current iPhone is stuck with a layout that hasn't even entered the decade of the 2010's yet but if you're selling them to everyone and their 3 year old kid, why hustle?)

But in 2007 I think it was easy to see how the iPhone was revolutionary compared to the clunky forgettable things others were making.

It was right around the same time that that the iPhone 3G was being released (I think... could have been the first iPhone model), that I was getting into smartphones. As annoyed as I was with WinMo and accept there were quirks with Android once it become a decent hit (the Droid came out a little while after my Omnia purchase), I just couldn't stand or understand the iPhone.
It was less than ideal, less than perfect, just glorified and dressed up.

But you hit the nail on the head: Apple makes appliances. Whole, well-rounded packages that seem to get the little things right - even if the biggest, most important part of the package is Meh, everything else is gold.
But everything else can't earn my money when the biggest part of it all, the OS, annoyed the shit out of me.
Regardless of where it is at now, back then, I couldn't see the appeal. I could, in a way... and understood why people got into it, but I was always a user destined toward Android (even before it released). I was modding my Omnia from about Week 2, and have always been a poweruser/tweaker.

 

[Genx87]

I thought it was amusing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRelVKWbMAv0



I love the closing sentence:


It's amusing how badly someone can get something wrong. Regardless of how you feel about the iPhone as a product, you have to admit that it sold more than a few to its fans. I like the suggestion about not selling any Nokia stock too... good stuff.

If you want a good laugh search for threads on apple fansites discussing the stupidity of Apple not bringin out a new mac but the iPod. And how it will doom the company lol.

 

[Fingolfin269]

You've gotta go back and think in terms of 2007. Everyone had a cell phone but smartphones were pretty much a business item. He missed it badly but I can understand why.

 

[alent1234]

the original iphone wasn't a success. sales were crap until apple worked out a subsidy deal with AT&T

even then the iphone didn't really take off until the 3GS. the 3G added MS Exchange and apps which started the whole bring your own phone to work deal

 

[Dulanic]

You've gotta go back and think in terms of 2007. Everyone had a cell phone but smartphones were pretty much a business item. He missed it badly but I can understand why.

This and don't forget.... in the past 20 years (prior to ipod) Apple hadn't had any real "hits" they had the LOL worthy colored bubbles known as iMacs but they were TBH junk. They were just beginning to release better products and didn't have the cult following they have now. Hindsight is 20/20, many people thought the same thing this guy did. And it wasn't just the iPhone it was smart phones in general too... no one thought we would have what we have now just 5 years later.

 

[cronos]

Actually quite honestly I thought the iPhone 1 was a piece of shit. ....<and the rest of the post>

DLeRium you saved me some typing. That's pretty much exactly what's on my mind

But in 2007 I think it was easy to see how the iPhone was revolutionary compared to the clunky forgettable things others were making.

Not to me. The original iPhone was this strange device that didn't really do anything besides making phonecalls and look pretty (remember there was no App Store back then). And I personally didn't even think it look pretty. I hate the curves.

In fact I didn't start thinking about the iPhone as something worthy to think about getting until iPhone 4, now that's finally a great device.

 

[alent1234]

Actually quite honestly I thought the iPhone 1 was a piece of shit. I remember the summer it came out. I was in college still and a bunch of friends and I talked about it. One raved about it because he had one, the other was indifferent, and I thought the iPhone was retarded.

It went touch for many things, but other than that, what the hell could it do?

- My Nokia N82 could navigate with GPS. The iPhone could not. I could do turn by turn with Garmin. We were still years away from Android's free navigation, and most consumers thought they had to pay the carrier to use GPS with their Windows Mobile phones.

- No apps. My Nokia N82 installed apps no problem. I had an IM app, Opera Mobile and Opera Mini, etc.

- The 2MP shooter on the iPhone was trash. I had a 2mp cameraphone from 2005. My 5MP shooter had Xenon flash. Oh, and the iPhone didn't have LED flash. It couldn't even do video. I took my N82 snowboarding and filmed myself going downhill and have footage at 640x480. How many phones in the US did multimedia that well? LOL.

- I could tether with an app. How many Windows Mobile users here figured you could tether back in 2007?

- I had FM radio. No Pandora on iPhone or anything. No FM radio either.

- The iPhone launched at $600. It was later dropped to $400. Are you kidding me? Someone remind me if this was with a contract or not. Now back in the day we used "Asian stores" a lot which would give you nice prices. A $200 phone would be obtainable for $100 for example. The iPhone was only sold at Apple stores or AT&T, so there's no way you could get a "better deal." And for $600 I could get an unlocked phone, which at an Asian store would probably cost me $300 with contract. Why would I pay for a $600 iPhone?

So really just think about the iPhone today and imagine it with its original suite of apps. Think about a subpar camera with no flash and video. What made it a smartphone? I could barely call the original iPhone a smartphone, but I suppose it can be one. Sony Ericsson phones back then could do quite a bit too, but were dumbphones. The iPhone 2G to me was a touch-based dumbphone lacking in bells and whistles of then multimedia phones like the Nokia N-series.

original iphone had a real web browser and a good email client

most browsers at the time were mobile browsers and sucked compared to desktop ones

 

[MrX8503]

Honestly, I thought Apple was crazy to release a phone. So crazy that I didn't even bother watching the keynote or even checking out the new UI. When I did check out the new UI though, it was light years ahead of what WinMo or BB had. No stupid scrollbar but with kinetic finger touch scrolling seemed amazing at the time.

"First, Apple is late to this party. The company didn't invent the personal computer or MP3 player, but it was among the pioneers of both products. Yet there is no shortage of phones out there. There are already big companies that dominate the space, all of whom will defend their turf. That means Apple will have to fight hard for every sale."

Funny how RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft are now late to the party. Smartphones were mainly used by business people, not the avg person. The iPhone brought smartphones to the avg person and there are a ton more avg people than business people. Its remarkable how things have changed, but Android also helped in driving nails into RIM/Nokia/Microsoft's coffins.

 

[cronos]

original iphone had a real web browser and a good email client

most browsers at the time were mobile browsers and sucked compared to desktop ones

I can see how this shocked the common american public. But not all of us are as clueless back then.

 

[alent1234]

it also had a decent sized screen at the time compared to other phones

if you had disposable income at the time it was a decent all in one device to listen to music, watch a movie, surf the web during lunch at work

 

[cronos]

it also had a decent sized screen at the time compared to other phones

if you had disposable income at the time it was a decent all in one device to listen to music, watch a movie, surf the web during lunch at work

No argument to that. You described most mac users there (people who think money are tight would not buy a mac), so you bet Apple was banking on its loyal fans to just buy that thing without even knowing what's so special about it. And then they got the App Store out. This is the key turning point imo.

Anyway, it really doesn't matter does it? Apple has won round 1, 2, and 3 (or has it been 4?). Now let's see what the race in the next round looks like. Apple will probably win again I don't really care who is winning as long as there's a competition.

 

[alent1234]

pretty much

i forgot who steve jobs copied but the way to ship a product is not to develop it until 10,000 features work.

find a new market that you think is ripe for growth and saturated with competitors offering subpar products
pick one or two features and make sure they work almost flawlessly. pick the ones you think your small target market will find usefull.
add the rest over the years. by the time your competition will figure things out it will be too late

original iphone had web, email, google maps, weather, stocks and photos. it also had an unlimited data plan. most smart phones before that cost $300 and you paid per MB. RIM had several data plans but it was only really good for email

apple has other metrics they monitor for mature markets but the above is an old strategy used by microsoft and others

 

[darkewaffle]

Apple changes things, almost never by having the most cutting edge features. They do it by putting things in a package that consumers can understand, and then lust after like nothing else.

If Apple is still booming 5/10/15 years from now you may be correct, but for the greater part of the company's history now they've been almost completely irrelevant. This string of success is against the grain, not the norm for them. Personally I think it's more of a flash in the pan than anything else and in some odd amount of years they'll be back to 'normal'. It was only relatively recently when the iPod finally caught on (between 2004-2005 is when sales really picked up) which was the catalyst for the iPhone and the iPad. Seven or eight years of strong sales is nothing to scoff at, but also does not constitute a definite trend or future.

 

[Eug]

I thought the iPhone was a no-brainer. ALL, and I mean ALL smartphones sucked at that time. ROYALLY SUCKED. I couldn't understand why so many people were buying RIM phones, because they all were terrible IMHO. They reminded me of the old Palm Pilots, except they were still being sold in 2007.

I also had owned a bunch of Sonys and they also were at best OK. They didn't have to suck, as the hardware was often half-decent, but they essentially had no viable software support, and what's worse, the limited software that did exist was specific to each individual model.

Mind you, I didn't buy the 2007 model iPhone, for two reasons:

1) Not available in Canada. It had to be jailbroken to be used in Canada.
2) EDGE only. Canada already had widespread 3G support.

 

[akugami]

I recall the first time I saw an iPhone it was so far more advanced than any other phone I'd ever seen, that I thought definitely it would change the market drastically. I mean, I thought that was blatantly obvious, no crystal ball needed.There was nothing else like it. (No Android at the time, nothing else even close.)

Disagree in part. From a UI standpoint, the original iPhone clearly was more advanced than anything seen at the time. From a flexibility and power standpoint, it actually took a few steps back. For a "smartphone" it had a lot of limitations.

the original iphone wasn't a success. sales were crap until apple worked out a subsidy deal with AT&T

even then the iphone didn't really take off until the 3GS. the 3G added MS Exchange and apps which started the whole bring your own phone to work deal

If I recall correctly, the original iPhone was released only on AT&T. There weren't any non-subsidized iPhones. At least not in the States and not officially. There was always the grey market of course. And it sold very well for a company entering a new market.

 

[Eug]

Disagree in part. From a UI standpoint, the original iPhone clearly was more advanced than anything seen at the time. From a flexibility and power standpoint, it actually took a few steps back. For a "smartphone" it had a lot of limitations.

I look at it from the software standpoint.

For the non-business consumer, the integration of the iPhone into home usage was way better than Nokia's and Sony's, and way better than RIM's too. RIM was never a consideration for me anyway, because IMHO their hardware was always the worst, with the fugliest UI, and I say that as someone who lives in Canada, not too far from RIM is headquartered. Nokia and Sony had better hardware than RIM, but each phone was an island.

The iPhone from the UI standpoint was vastly superior to everything else in the market, but more importantly, it was a vastly superior user experience... at least if you were one of us who could use it with a Mac. (I'm a PC and Mac household, so I always had both options.)