Saw this on Reddit tonight - a 2007 "iPhone will fail" column

[alent1234]

original iphone was $599 and $699 plus an optional data plan, no contract. few months later they worked out a subsidy deal and it was $199 and $299 plus a data plan and two year contract. I think the data plan went from $20 to $30 after the subsidy came along. came to AT&T first and they added carriers around the world a few months later.

blackberries were awesome because they gave you MS Exchange access anywhere you had a cell signal. you could take off from work early and check your email

 

[Eug]

blackberries were awesome because they gave you MS Exchange access anywhere you had a cell signal. you could take off from work early and check your email

This essentially was the only advantage RIM had IMO. It took them far, but basically it made them a one-hit wonder - which was Exchange support.

BTW, my workplace tried to get me onto a Blackberry, because of the MS Exchange support. I said no and went out and bought an iPhone with my own money. Then when it was possible my workplace suggested I link my iPhone to my Exchange account. I refused. To this day, I do not have work email on my iPhone.

I told them if it's really that important, they can call me. It's amazing how much "urgent" stuff isn't really all that urgent if they actually have to pick up the phone and call.

BTW, I think our company saw the writing on the wall with Blackberries when even those who were FORCED to get Blackberries were also going out and buying iPhones anyway. Some of these people actually were carrying around two phones because they thought the Blackberries sucked.

 

[alent1234]

i have a conspiracy theory that RIM scared the hell out of MS with their Exchange support which is why they licensed active sync to apple and google.

blackberries negated the use of outlook for a lot of people. and probably exchange as well. for the management if they got their email on a blackberry they didn't care what server it was running on.

using an iphone or droid for work email protects Microsoft's exchange business

 

[Munky]

The author was judging a product based on its (lack of) merit, but apparently underestimated the power of Apple's marketing.

 

[Eug]

The author was judging a product based on its (lack of) merit, but apparently underestimated the power of Apple's marketing.

No understimated the iPhone's merits, and the power of Apple's prowess with product integration of the hardware, UI, and supporting software.

 

[Munky]

No understimated the iPhone's merits, and the power of Apple's prowess with product integration of the hardware, UI, and supporting software.

How much of that did Apple have when the original iphone launched? There was no app store, and the phone lacked numerous features that even a basic dumbphone had back in 2007, nevermind smartphones from Blackberry and Nokia. Did that stop people from lining up around the block to pick up the new iToy? No it didn't.

 

[Eug]

How much of that did Apple have when the original iphone launched? There was no app store, and the phone lacked numerous features that even a basic dumbphone had back in 2007, nevermind smartphones from Blackberry and Nokia. Did that stop people from lining up around the block to pick up the new iToy? No it didn't.

iTunes was already way more advanced than any other phone software that any other phone had.

Then, Apple got the app store the following year.

 

[MrX8503]

The author was judging a product based on its (lack of) merit, but apparently underestimated the power of Apple's marketing.

No, the author underestimated the power of user experience design.

How much of that did Apple have when the original iphone launched? There was no app store, and the phone lacked numerous features that even a basic dumbphone had back in 2007, nevermind smartphones from Blackberry and Nokia. Did that stop people from lining up around the block to pick up the new iToy? No it didn't.

Because features alone isn't the whole picture. If that were the case WinMo would still be #1 even above Android. Its the whole package and quite frankly smartphones back in the day sucked hard core in usability and design.

 

[bearxor]

I was all on the iPhone sucks and WinMo rules train in 2007. I was like "It's pretty, but I can do so much more with my Treo 700wx and it has a physical keyboard and I don't have to switch to AT&T!" I just KNEW that in a year, WinMo devices would come along that would be better than the iphone.

Then WWDC 2008 happened. I was in line for a iPhone 3G on my birthday (July 12) and made the switch to AT&T. My wife, whom HATES Apple, was using a Treo 650 at the time and liked it. Then she got a hold of my iPhone and basically started just using it ALL THE TIME. She got one September 2008. We both switched to AT&T and outright bailed on our Sprint contracts.

And that was how Sprint lost two customers, Microsoft lost a die-hard WinMo fan since the Toshiba 2032 in 2002 and how Apple converted a hater to a lover. Well, lover is too strong. More like 'tolerable user'

 

[MrX8503]

I hated Apple and didn't get an iPhone until the iPhone4. I converted to Apple when they produced their unibody macbook pros in 2008. The laptop was years ahead and still is to this day. After that I was sucked more into the ecosystem and got myself the iPhone4. Then the rest was history.

 

[Munky]

No, the author underestimated the power of user experience design.



Because features alone isn't the whole picture. If that were the case WinMo would still be #1 even above Android. Its the whole package and quite frankly smartphones back in the day sucked hard core in usability and design.

WinMo is a bad example, and you know it. I've used BB and Nokia, and none of those UI's were as bad as WinMo, or as bad as dumb people like to pretend. On the other hand, I didn't need Itunes for simple things like changing a ringtone or installing apps, and had usable features like GPS, Bluetooth, and copy/paste that the iphone sorely lacked.

 

[alent1234]

when did you need itunes to install apps?

i ask because my wife has had the iphone 3g and 4 and hooks it up to a computer maybe once a year

 

[Munky]

when did you need itunes to install apps?

i ask because my wife has had the iphone 3g and 4 and hooks it up to a computer maybe once a year

I don't know, but according to apple I need itunes to even browse the app store on my PC.

 

[MrX8503]

WinMo is a bad example, and you know it. I've used BB and Nokia, and none of those UI's were as bad as WinMo, or as bad as dumb people like to pretend. On the other hand, I didn't need Itunes for simple things like changing a ringtone or installing apps, and had usable features like GPS, Bluetooth, and copy/paste that the iphone sorely lacked.

Lets be real, Symbian and BB OS UI were trash too. You know how I know this? Because those platforms are either dead or dying.

I don't know, but according to apple I need itunes to even browse the app store on my PC.

But you don't need iTunes to install/browse apps on the iPhone. Apple revolutionized apps too on smartphones, unless you enjoyed paying $30 for calculator apps on WinMo.

 

[bearxor]

WinMo is a bad example, and you know it. I've used BB and Nokia, and none of those UI's were as bad as WinMo, or as bad as dumb people like to pretend. On the other hand, I didn't need Itunes for simple things like changing a ringtone or installing apps, and had usable features like GPS, Bluetooth, and copy/paste that the iphone sorely lacked.

WinMo > BB

WinMo 4 LIFE!!! Or until you get a new phone, because damn. I have a friend still rocking a TouchPro 2 on Sprint because he's too cheap to pay $20 more a month to upgrade to the newer SERO plan so he can get a phone that actually works. He constantly complains about it.

when did you need itunes to install apps?

i ask because my wife has had the iphone 3g and 4 and hooks it up to a computer maybe once a year

You didn't HAVE to, but before iOS 5 on the iPhone (or maybe it was in the last version of 4.3), there was no 'purchased' tab in the App Store so if you wanted to redownload something you just had to search for it and then, once you found it, click to buy it again and hope that when it started downloading it says 'Since you have previously purchased this item, this update is free' or something similar. So having all of your apps synced to your computer was a good way just to keep track of what you had bought and reinstall it without the fear that you might accidentally buy something you didn't mean to when all you wanted to do was restore it.

The OS does a much better job now, though.

 

[Red Storm]

The first iPhone was terrible. Having a web browser was pointless when the speed was so pitifully slow. I remember my friend had managed to get one and I told him it wasn't very impressive, but future generations would be intriguing.

 

[alent1234]

WinMo > BB

WinMo 4 LIFE!!! Or until you get a new phone, because damn. I have a friend still rocking a TouchPro 2 on Sprint because he's too cheap to pay $20 more a month to upgrade to the newer SERO plan so he can get a phone that actually works. He constantly complains about it.


You didn't HAVE to, but before iOS 5 on the iPhone (or maybe it was in the last version of 4.3), there was no 'purchased' tab in the App Store so if you wanted to redownload something you just had to search for it and then, once you found it, click to buy it again and hope that when it started downloading it says 'Since you have previously purchased this item, this update is free' or something similar. So having all of your apps synced to your computer was a good way just to keep track of what you had bought and reinstall it without the fear that you might accidentally buy something you didn't mean to when all you wanted to do was restore it.

The OS does a much better job now, though.

i never had an incident where i had to pay twice for an app. it always took a second to switch from the price to install or something like that

 

[Red Storm]

i never had an incident where i had to pay twice for an app. it always took a second to switch from the price to install or something like that

I think his point was that unless you specifically remembered each and every app you've ever purchased, you had no way of knowing for sure if you were going to be charged or if it would just redownload.

 

[darkewaffle]

Lets be real, Symbian and BB OS UI were trash too. You know how I know this? Because those platforms are either dead or dying.

Clearly, popularity is an indicator of quality.

 

[Zaap]

I think people that are highly technical see this too much from their own perspective. Sure, there's a million technical reason why the first iPhone sucked if you look at it from a knowledgeable tech perspective. But most people don't do that.

My Aunt is 70; she's so technically clueless the VCR that she still has perpetually flashes 12:00. She once told me she hated renting tapes, because it takes so long to rewind them. (She would start rewinding at the end of a movie while the tape was playing- IE: scanning back through the entire movie!)

A more technically clueless person you'd be hard pressed to find.

She calls me up raving over the iPhone, (3G at the time) should she get one, what do I think about it, etc.etc. She got the 3G, loved it, and now has a 4S, loves it. She's retired- has no business intrest in having a 'smartphone' yet she'd sooner give up her car than her iPhone.

My Aunt -and all the millions of people like her- wouldn't get excited over kludge like the old WinMo phones if her life had depended on it. She probably couldn't even tell you the name of a single other phone manufacturer besides Apple, let alone an individual model of phone they make.

It's millions of people like her that are the reason Apple creates game-changers. If you can blast through all the noise, and make my tech-clueless Aunt lust after your gadget- you've won. Virtually no one but a company like Apple can do that consistently. That what they make doesn't necessarily appeal to us tech-junkies on an individual feature basis doesn't really matter that much in the big scheme of things.

Sure I could be wrong though, and the author's view was accurate. Maybe there's some other phone from 2007 that someone like my Aunt could even tell you the name of today, let alone give a good crap about. Or maybe not.

 

[Munky]

Lets be real, Symbian and BB OS UI were trash too. You know how I know this? Because those platforms are either dead or dying.

That's like saying a Toyota Supra or a Mazda RX7 was trash compared to a Camry. The car that's popular and selling well is a piss-poor substitute for the others to people who know how to use one. The original iphone was a joke compared to the competition for people who actually knew what to do with a smartphone, and demanded the appropriate features. The reason it's doing so well is most people don't need a smartphone, or even know how get the most use from one without an "app" for every website they visit.

But you don't need iTunes to install/browse apps on the iPhone. Apple revolutionized apps too on smartphones, unless you enjoyed paying $30 for calculator apps on WinMo.

Why should I be limited to browsing the apps on a slow connection, tiny screen, and limited battery life? I don't need to install anything to search and buy apps for Android or Nokia from my PC.

 

[bearxor]

i never had an incident where i had to pay twice for an app. it always took a second to switch from the price to install or something like that

The AppStore on iPhone prior to iOS 5 (or, as mentioned, a very late version of iOS 4.3) didn't switch from a price to install. You had to tap the price, click install and just hope that you had purchased it and that it wasn't like a new version that was listed seperately or something.

I think iPad did this once it got iOS4, but this didn't come to the iPhone until the past year or so.

 

[bearxor]

TWhy should I be limited to browsing the apps on a slow connection, tiny screen, and limited battery life? I don't need to install anything to search and buy apps for Android or Nokia from my PC.

I mean, you're kind of right, but you're not forward thinking enough. I don't even use a computer at all in my personal time. It's all iPhone/iPad. Most of the general population will be there in 5-7 years.

 

[pm]

Hmmm. I didn't think it would get this level of response. I just thought it was a neat article... and a little funny given how things played out.

I'm feeling a bit like I unintentionally trolled the forum (bad mod!) and if so, I apologize. I just thought it was neat to go back and read what one analyst said before the launch and now look at how things turned out.

 

[Ns1]

yeah I pretty much laughed at my friend when he got the first iPhone. called him iSheep.

look at me now =X