Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

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scannall

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Jan 1, 2012
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Kocicak said:
You people seem to be ignoring all of the other parts of the manufacturing process! It is not just about TSMC and bare silicon chips, you need to make a functioning product out of them.

I bet that the other parts of the manufacturing process are running at or very near their capacities too given the very large volume of products AMD now sells!

So an order for ?? thousands of two chiplet Ryzen CPUs from system manufacturers simply put consumer CPUs behind in the queue.

BTW it would be very interesting to learn more about the other parts of the CPU manufacturing process, testing, assembly etc. Could anyone having contact to Dr. Cutress tell him about this and steer his curiosity this way? Thanks.
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Just the inter-poser itself is quite a bit of engineering. Those dies aren't just slopped onto a Popsicle stick. For Ryzen it's a 12 layer mini PCB.
 
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Atari2600

Atari2600

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Kocicak said:
BTW it would be very interesting to learn more about the other parts of the CPU manufacturing process, testing, assembly etc. Could anyone having contact to Dr. Cutress tell him about this and steer his curiosity this way? Thanks.
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Indeed, however you'd think that if they can produce sufficient EYPC chips* using 8 chiplets, producing a 3900X with 2 chiplets wouldn't be an obstacle.

Furthermore - if producing the 3900X was a problem, then why launch the 3900 PRO?

I'd reckon the binning argument isn't far off the truth.


*which I suppose does raise a question - are they meeting EYPC demand? Anyone know (or know anyone who might know?)
 
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Kocicak

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Jan 17, 2019
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Atari2600 said:
... if they can produce sufficient EYPC chips* using 8 chiplets, producing a 3900X with 2 chiplets wouldn't be an obstacle.
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You are comparing production of completelly different products with different physical dimensions using different production lines!
 
Atari2600

Atari2600

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Kocicak said:
You are comparing production of completelly different products with different physical dimensions using different production lines!
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EYPC is far more complex to produce than Ryzen. Far more traces to far more chiplets. The underlying process is otherwise the same.

Therefore it is self-evident that if they can produce sufficient EPYC CPUs, they have no significant hurdles to overcome for Ryzen production. (Beyond scaling.)
 
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Kocicak

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Atari2600 said:
... The underlying process is otherwise the same.
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Of course, but I was talking about momentary production situation and in my opinion those two products are so different that you cannot easilly reconfigure a production line to make the other product.

The question is if the Ryzen line/s is/are flexible enough to switch from production of one chiplet Ryzen to two chiplet Ryzen and vice versa.
 
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Topweasel

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Oct 19, 2000
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Kocicak said:
Of course, but I was talking about momentary production situation and in my opinion those two products are so different that you cannot easilly reconfigure a production line to make the other product.

The question is if the Ryzen line/s is/are flexible enough to switch from production of one chiplet Ryzen to two chiplet Ryzen and vice versa.
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It probably isn't, AMD has other companies do the packaging for them. So AMD has them sent a bunch of dies and tells them either the count or ratio to target based on the tests of the dies and current market forces. Switching them up to meet demand in one area can be dangerous, it will take supply away from other products that need it (the 3600 and 3600x are their best sellers along with the 3900x) and if demand doesn't hold you have a bunch of extra products, one of your more expensive products (both for them and consumers) that you now have to discount.
 
Atari2600

Atari2600

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Nov 22, 2016
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Kocicak said:
Of course, but I was talking about momentary production situation and in my opinion those two products are so different that you cannot easilly reconfigure a production line to make the other product.

The question is if the Ryzen line/s is/are flexible enough to switch from production of one chiplet Ryzen to two chiplet Ryzen and vice versa.
Click to expand...

Well, if we cast our minds back to when the 8C Zen2 was first unveiled at CES - there was the traces shown on the images under certain light conditions.

Have we any reason to believe that the substrate has forked into two separate designs (one for single chiplet, the other for dual chiplet) since?

In which case, it'd be a common line and they just need to assign more die to the line (or they have yield problems on either the 8C chiplet, or getting both IF lanes of the IO chip working).


www.anandtech.com

AMD Ryzen 3rd Gen 'Matisse' Coming Mid 2019: Eight Core Zen 2 with PCIe 4.0 on Desktop

www.anandtech.com www.anandtech.com

 
Vattila

Vattila

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Atari2600 said:
*which I suppose does raise a question - are they meeting EYPC demand? Anyone know (or know anyone who might know?)
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AMD management has set out a projected growth curve in the server space from 5% market share in 2018-Q4 to double-digit percentage share "4-6 quarters" thereafter, with growth limited primarily by adoption rate and not production capacity. So far there has been no evidence that they are ahead of their projections. Their upcoming Q3 Earnings Report should reveal a little about their progress.

I'd reckon the binning argument isn't far off the truth.
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I think it is evident by now. They fell short on desktop frequency targets and had to push it to the limits. This, compounded by high demand, has created shortages in the top bins (causing the delay of the 3950X). It will improve as volume ramps, of course, but whether they will be able to satisfy demand as they grow remains to be seen.

However, this should not be an issue in the server space where targeted frequencies were far lower, and where power-efficiency is the crucial metric. In fact, they may have had some headroom here, as seen by the introduction of the 7H12 chip for HPC customers (on request from their supercomputer partners, I guess).
 
Markfw

Markfw

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May 16, 2002
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I have 6 in my cart... I tried for 7, it says 6 per customer is the max

Edit 2: I tried to check out, and its sold out.
 
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Markfw

Markfw

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Its in my cart at newegg for $584 including shipping. But I am going to wait for the 3950x for my last am4 box.
 
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Markfw

Markfw

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Encouaging that its been instock at Amazon, Bestbuy and now newegg today ! Still available on newegg,
 
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Ailurophile

Ailurophile

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Sep 1, 2019
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Markfw said:
Encouaging that its been instock at Amazon, Bestbuy and now newegg today ! Still available on newegg,
Click to expand...

Yes. Can't wait for B&H to open their doors again soon after the holiday and update shipment statuses. <<Crossing Fingers>>
 
Markfw

Markfw

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Most everybody is getting them this week, but they are all around 570-580. Glad I got mine for MSRP. I hope the 3950x does not go like that. $750 is more than enough.
 
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