Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Jaskalas]

i can't imagine the hell it is to have to sit through the receiving end of that

Ukrainians don't have to imagine.
Russia has been bombing them all year.

 

[Drach]

Unfortunately I expect the Russians to pretty immediately start shelling Kherson and turn it into even more of a ruin than their occupation made it.

Won’t stop until they are defeated across all of Ukraine and a peace deal is reached.

I am guessing that next up is pressuring the coastal areas to the east of Kherson that do not require crossing a big river.

Always projecting doom and gloom even when Ukrainians are kicking serious ORC ass.

 

[K1052]

Based on what I've seen it looks like the Ukrainians did not actually go after the withdrawal very hard at least in proximity to Kherson City. For their part the Russians didn't burn the place down on their way out. Might have been some battlefield agreement that took place.

 

[Indus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591069701777539072

It's too bad she didn't cut deeper or lower down the wrist.

 

[zinfamous]

they can surely try but Ukrainian artillery outranges them, not to even mention the HIMARS

Here's some organ music from today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590837958835597312

i can't imagine the hell it is to have to sit through the receiving end of that

get some!

 

[Roger Wilco]

Israeli IMVs spotted in Kherson.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591152495078047744

 

[you2]

I'd like Ukraine to get in range of the crimean bridge and finish putting holes in that monstrosity.

 

[Drach]

I'd like Ukraine to get in range of the crimean bridge and finish putting holes in that monstrosity.

You better believe it!!

 

[Racan]

LOL

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591162458952982528

 

[Roger Wilco]

No more missiles for Russia if this is true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591180889978900481

 

[Dave_5k]

As Iran never fully admitted to its recent supply of drones, this is... odd

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591180574261391361

Most likely, Iran just finished emptying out its spare stock of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia on the last couple IL-76 trips back to Russia
Edit: lol, Roger Wilco beat me by a few minutes

 

[RnR_au]

I've noticed some noises about Crimea on twitter... could be an illusionary pattern by my tired brain...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591196092737409025

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591033404849807363

And lastly;

A #Ukraine Resistance movement says it has sources confirming #Russia will evacuate its people from #NovaKakhovka tomorrow (Saturday), sending them close to the border with #Crimea.

From https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1591206899898515458

 

[Jaskalas]

I'd like Ukraine to get in range of the crimean bridge and finish putting holes in that monstrosity.

Even touching the Sea of Azov places the Kerch Bridge roughly twice the distance HIMARs can travel.
And Ukraine is nowhere near Azov.

My hope is that they can cut the land bridge, and once reaching water, they would have some means of reliably striking that bridge. But that is just a hope, predicated on yet another hefty requirement - removing Russia from well supplied and well fixed positions. No guarantee Ukraine can accomplish either through strength of arms. Or rather - we have not and will never give them the firepower needed to outright win. So pushing Russia out remains a very slow and very painful slog, paid for in Ukrainian blood.

If this is a contest of who will bleed out first, I am not confident that we have done enough to ensure a totally favorable outcome.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I've noticed some noises about Crimea on twitter... could be an illusionary pattern by my tired brain...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591196092737409025

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591033404849807363

And lastly;
From https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1591206899898515458

Assuming this sticks, sounds like they're trying to retreat to pre-2022 zones of control. We'll see how well that goes for them.

 

[zinfamous]

Wonder what the activity is like on the Kerch bridge, heading east?

IF RU forces fleeing this quickly back to Crimea and building new fortifications there, I imagine they are also fortifying along that one remaining rail line that is going to be necessary to keep Crimea supplied for the next several months; but I also don't see how they can do that as any kind of big retreat like that in this area is going to put Ukraine within range and complete control of wrecking their supply to Crimea.

Russia wouldn't even be able to hold out in Crimea for 6 months if that happens, I think.

Seems to me that this isn't so much a trap or plan to defend, but rather Putin desperately pulling back and preparing to "offer those concessions" to retain pre-February territory and please be nice to us, Ukraine and NATO but of course demand nothing of us because you do not deserve any more good will than we offer!

 

[Indus]

Wonder what the activity is like on the Kerch bridge, heading east?

IF RU forces fleeing this quickly back to Crimea and building new fortifications there, I imagine they are also fortifying along that one remaining rail line that is going to be necessary to keep Crimea supplied for the next several months; but I also don't see how they can do that as any kind of big retreat like that in this area is going to put Ukraine within range and complete control of wrecking their supply to Crimea.

Russia wouldn't even be able to hold out in Crimea for 6 months if that happens, I think.

Seems to me that this isn't so much a trap or plan to defend, but rather Putin desperately pulling back and preparing to "offer those concessions" to retain pre-February territory and please be nice to us, Ukraine and NATO but of course demand nothing of us because you do not deserve any more good will than we offer!

Ideally the lines should go back to 2014 and Russia should be forced to sign a demilitarized zone within 100KM of Ukraine, NATO and the Black Sea but counting on Russia to obey treaties is like asking a wolf to be in charge of the chicken coop.

 

[zinfamous]

Ideally the lines should go back to 2014 and Russia should be forced to sign a demilitarized zone within 100KM of Ukraine, NATO and the Black Sea but counting on Russia to obey treaties is like asking a wolf to be in charge of the chicken coop.

Yes but part of the demand should be that Putin and all ministers responsible for planning and orchestration of the war turn themselves over to international law enforcement to stand trial for war crimes.

Yes, conditions of treaty for their suing for peace, would be for them to surrender unconditionally with their own bodies on the line. Obviously, they won't do it but that is the demand of signing a treaty that everyone already knows that they will never obey, so why not demand it as an unnegotiable condition?

I guess....the only possible concession to that could maybe be that Putin and ministers depart Russia and live in exile. Internationally-monitored free elections in RU with annual de-militarizing landmarks and industrial privitization, all state-owned company administrators fired and forced to re-apply for competence and criminal history checks, to qualify for international subsidies--which would only paid for through a fund created from captured Putin/Oligarch/RU sovereign wealth, from the leftovers of the first 95% of value given to Ukraine for rebuilding.

See, if Putin and friends can agree to "live in exile," then plenty of salty, battle-hardened UK special forces can spend some fun times over the next couple of years with training from SAS/Mossad/SEALs/etc and start their own hunt and peck squad to deal with that problem for good. No way in hell any of these shits would ever be safe under the protection of their various international "friends" that will certainly always have a price for turning on them. No question about it.

Let them live in exile and may they never be protected from justice for as long as they do so.

 

[Dave_5k]

Even touching the Sea of Azov places the Kerch Bridge roughly twice the distance HIMARs can travel.
And Ukraine is nowhere near Azov.

Ukraine really could use a few dozen or more ATACMS… would fix that range problem

 

[Dave_5k]

In less good news, Russia reportedly completely destroyed the power generation and substation in Kherson before retreating, which will be extremely difficult to replace for this winter, Ukraine and Western supporters were already scouring entire world supply to try to find replacements for the damaged stations in Kyiv and rest of Ukraine

(Edit: high voltage transformers don’t grow on trees… the last time I looked was quoted 52 week lead time)

 

[Drach]

Sorry. Bad info on my part.

 

[Jaskalas]

In less good news, Russia reportedly completely destroyed the power generation and substation in Kherson before retreating, which will be extremely difficult to replace for this winter

Bombing the entirety of all civilian infrastructure, might, by itself, force Ukraine into a ceasefire.
I cannot imagine how they live without heat and electricity. Or even function as a government and a military.
And this devastation has only truly begun in the past month. Its effects will amplify over time, especially as Iranian Ballistic Missiles find their mark to keep piling on the pain and reaching the few remaining targets. I wonder how any civilization survives such bombardment. How many people will Russia kill via winter's frozen touch?

 

[DaaQ]

Bombing the entirety of all civilian infrastructure, might, by itself, force Ukraine into a ceasefire.
I cannot imagine how they live without heat and electricity. Or even function as a government and a military.
And this devastation has only truly begun in the past month. Its effects will amplify over time, especially as Iranian Ballistic Missiles find their mark to keep piling on the pain and reaching the few remaining targets. I wonder how any civilization survives such bombardment. How many people will Russia kill via winter's frozen touch?

They can still make fire, and most sensible people know how to make electricity. not on a city scale, but single homes should be able to weather the cold.

 

[Dave_5k]

Bombing the entirety of all civilian infrastructure, might, by itself, force Ukraine into a ceasefire.
I cannot imagine how they live without heat and electricity. Or even function as a government and a military.
And this devastation has only truly begun in the past month. Its effects will amplify over time, especially as Iranian Ballistic Missiles find their mark to keep piling on the pain and reaching the few remaining targets. I wonder how any civilization survives such bombardment. How many people will Russia kill via winter's frozen touch?

Putin is trying to exceed 7-figures of people massacred in Ukraine I think, so that he can start comparing more properly with his hero Stalin (circa 1932-1933)

 

[itsmydamnation]

Bombing the entirety of all civilian infrastructure, might, by itself, force Ukraine into a ceasefire.
I cannot imagine how they live without heat and electricity. Or even function as a government and a military.
And this devastation has only truly begun in the past month. Its effects will amplify over time, especially as Iranian Ballistic Missiles find their mark to keep piling on the pain and reaching the few remaining targets. I wonder how any civilization survives such bombardment. How many people will Russia kill via winter's frozen touch?

That doesn't make any sense , because Putin's already done that and a ceasefire won't change that.

I don't expect much ground change over winter, but Ukraine have the tactical advantage with both artillery and himars , with flooding in of better AA, Ukraine will shell Russians and their supply lines all winter.

 

[Dave_5k]

They can still make fire, and most sensible people know how to make electricity. not on a city scale, but single homes should be able to weather the cold.

It takes a lot of firewood or coal to keep warm through the winter - while doable on single house basis, this isn't really workable for even a small city, would need a daily caravan of fuel. And Russia stole or destroyed basically all of the solar panels in regions they occupied, cutting off that avenue