Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,047
12,715
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sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,085
5,618
126
Thoughts on this guy's take on the war?

(142) Ukraine Fog of War: What's Really Happening? - YouTube

Not really a fan of him and think he's kind of over the top at times w/ his outfits TBH but he does suggest a fair point that it seems like western media is really optimistic on Ukraine's chances and downplaying russia's advances as well.

Cringy thumbnail of his had me tell YT not to Recommend. Didn't watch though, I just assumed a waste of time.
 
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DisarmedDespot

Senior member
Jun 2, 2016
587
588
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Thoughts on this guy's take on the war?

(142) Ukraine Fog of War: What's Really Happening? - YouTube

Not really a fan of him and think he's kind of over the top at times w/ his outfits TBH but he does suggest a fair point that it seems like western media is really optimistic on Ukraine's chances and downplaying russia's advances as well.
I made even less into this video than his last one. Russia's successes get less coverage than Ukrainian ones? No shit! A regional power with a third-rate military (that's worn out after fighting separatists for years) managing to hold off a former superpower's military is a much bigger story.

I didn't watch enough to see if he's still doing that "this is all going to putin's plan!1!!!!" thing he did in his last one, but if "the media' isn't showing Russia's victories, so what? Every mainstream analysis I read stresses that Russia can still win through numbers alone (it's really only here that I hear people talk like Ukraine's winning). The sheer fact is, we're still three weeks in, Russia's offensive is stalled, they've lost 1500 vehicles and probably more men than the US did in all the years of Iraq and Afghanistan, their air force still hasn't suppressed the Ukrainian's, the list of strategic military embarrassments goes on. No amount of pro-Russian clips is gonna change that.

He's not even wrong, his video's just pointless.
 
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tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,475
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Seems evident Xi is having 2nd thoughts about the exact nature of China's relationship the Putin regime.



With the idea that nobody likes to back a loser, the longer the Ukrainians hold out against Putin the harder it's going to get for Xi to publicly support Putin's little adventure down south. This potential death spiral of Putin's attempted land grab is at this time seems to be getting more realistic by the minute and is being pushed along by the democracies of the world shoving tons of military and civil aid to Ukraine.

It would behoove China to sit back and wait a few weeks before possibly throwing in with a losing cause, making China look foolish and possibly be retaliated against for their support of Putin and the war crimes he's piling up for himself.
 

bguile

Senior member
Nov 30, 2011
529
51
91
Thoughts on this guy's take on the war?

(142) Ukraine Fog of War: What's Really Happening? - YouTube

Not really a fan of him and think he's kind of over the top at times w/ his outfits TBH but he does suggest a fair point that it seems like western media is really optimistic on Ukraine's chances and downplaying russia's advances as well.

If you can stand his bad jokes and humor, it's worth watching just to get a different perspective. The media and alot of websites I have been following are overwhelming pro Ukraine, so it's kinda of easy to get caught up in the idea that Ukraine can win this. The reality I fear is somewhat different. The Russians are still advancing/probing (albeit slowly) around Kiev and more so in the Donbass region. Mariupol isn't gonna last much longer. Not sure about Sumy, but it doesn't look good. Same with Chernihiv. The only good news for Ukraine is it appears that they have turned the tide around Mykolaiv, and even launched a small counteroffensive a bit south of it.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,511
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sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,085
5,618
126
GQP twats are losing their conflicted and confused fans to Zelensky, whom they are hate-worshipping right now, so the twats are starting to go after him.

it's pathetic.

The whole RW Propagandasphere is pathetic. Many of them are just Tokens that everyone knows the Right tends to outright despise, but they take it with a smile because the pay is good. It's an easy gig though, just say what you think the audience wants to hear. This is how they get Informed...
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
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If you can stand his bad jokes and humor, it's worth watching just to get a different perspective. The media and alot of websites I have been following are overwhelming pro Ukraine, so it's kinda of easy to get caught up in the idea that Ukraine can win this. The reality I fear is somewhat different. The Russians are still advancing/probing (albeit slowly) around Kiev and more so in the Donbass region. Mariupol isn't gonna last much longer. Not sure about Sumy, but it doesn't look good. Same with Chernihiv. The only good news for Ukraine is it appears that they have turned the tide around Mykolaiv, and even launched a small counteroffensive a bit south of it.
There are multiple ways that Ukraine wins this. And the longer Ukraine, Kyiv, and Zelenskyy are able to hold out, the more likely Ukraine wins, even if they end up being occupied. If occupied, Russia would have to continue resupplying their military while Ukrainians get better and better at "insurgency". All the while Russia's economy goes deeper into the hole. Judging by the coming purge by Putin, Russia is only going to become a harder place to control internally, which doesn't bode well for occupation.

This is, of course, assuming Putin doesn't start using "tactical nukes".

The only paths to 'victory" for Russia is holding the eastern parts of Ukraine that they currently control and getting a deed for Crimea. I don't see them actually taking over Ukraine permanently and while there might be a Vichy Ukraine, I bet it doesn't last very long after Russia pulls its very strained military out.
 

Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,025
2,593
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I made even less into this video than his last one. Russia's successes get less coverage than Ukrainian ones? No shit! A regional power with a third-rate military (that's worn out after fighting separatists for years) managing to hold off a former superpower's military is a much bigger story.

I didn't watch enough to see if he's still doing that "this is all going to putin's plan!1!!!!" thing he did in his last one, but if "the media' isn't showing Russia's victories, so what? Every mainstream analysis I read stresses that Russia can still win through numbers alone (it's really only here that I hear people talk like Ukraine's winning). The sheer fact is, we're still three weeks in, Russia's offensive is stalled, they've lost 1500 vehicles and probably more men than the US did in all the years of Iraq and Afghanistan, their air force still hasn't suppressed the Ukrainian's, the list of strategic military embarrassments goes on. No amount of pro-Russian clips is gonna change that.

He's not even wrong, his video's just pointless.
I think I remember reading somewhere that in all the wars ever fought on this planet if you look at situations where where one side is heavily favored against the other, about a third of the time the weaker side wins if they are the defending side. The defenders advantage is a very very powerful thing. I mean we were favored in vietnam and look how it turned out. Its just not that easy to move an entire army over to a foreign land and then efficiently run through it.

Totally normal thing to need to do

I think this is a sign of the last days in berlin right?
 
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
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Well... Ukraine CAN win this, but in a way I never expected. That being.... the self destruction of Vladimir Putin.
Interesting.... Putin is getting quite irked with his own people when they dare question Putin's motivates, judgment, and intentions. This is becoming soooo Trumpish. A self absorbed dictator throwing his temper tantrum's because he isn't getting his way or others would dare challenge his authority. Come-on America, we've seen this type of behavior before close-up with our own leader. And you know who I'm talking about.

I just can not stop wondering how all of this might have unfolded if Donald Trump had been re-elected? That really haunts me. Donald Trump liked, loved, and highly respected Vladimir Putin when Trump was president. For Trump, Putin could do no wrong. So would it be possible for Donald Trump to turn against Putin now? For Donald Trump to change his opinion of Putin? Just remember, Donald Trump never admits fault or error, in Trump's mind Trump is perfect. So how could Donald Trump ever admit he was wrong about Putin? He wouldn't. He couldn't. And how that might have affected this war is the question.

Who we elect makes all the difference. We can never imagine what may come along under a sitting president. We might think electing this one or electing that one doesn't really matter. That is... until a pandemic comes along, or Putin goes to war and our sitting president must take sides. Which side would a president Donald Trump align with today? Can you guess?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,378
7,443
136
Now, why would you want a whole bunch of new people around you instead of ones who have a track history?

The staff with history are possibly compromised by "agents" looking for a way in.
Sudden shift would leave all those inroad efforts wasted.
Gotta start all over again.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Too bad Ukraine doesn't have planes or long range missiles that could hit inside Moscow. It would be nice to watch Putin hiding in a bomb shelter, and the Soviet citizens fleeing into bomb shelters while air-raid sirens sound in the background. Geee... maybe Ukraine should work on that.
How about some tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine.
 
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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
25,988
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Holy shit the blatant hypocrisy.



More than two dozen Senate Republicans demand Biden do more for Ukraine after voting against $13.6 billion for Ukraine
Thirty-one Senate Republicans voted last week against the $1.5 trillion spending bill to fund the government, increase U.S. defense spending and provide humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine. In recent days, many of them have clamored for more weapons and aid.


More than two dozen Senate Republicans are demanding that President Biden do more to aid war-torn Ukraine and arm its forces against Russia’s brutal assault, after voting last week against $13.6 billion in military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

Consider Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who heard Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s emotional plea in a virtual address to Congress on Wednesday for more weapons and a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
“President Biden needs to make a decision TODAY: either give Ukraine access to the planes and antiaircraft defense systems it needs to defend itself, or enforce a no-fly zone to close Ukrainian skies to Russian attacks,” Scott said in a statement. “If President Biden does not do this NOW, President Biden will show himself to be absolutely heartless and ignorant of the deaths of innocent Ukrainian children and families.”


Last week, Scott was one of 31 Republicans to vote against a sweeping, $1.5 trillion spending bill to fund government agencies and departments through the remainder of the fiscal year and that would also include $13.6 billion in assistance for Ukraine. Biden signed the bill into law Tuesday, casting the aid as the United States “moving urgently to further augment the support to the brave people of Ukraine as they defend their country.”

After casting a “no” vote, Scott assailed the overall spending bill as wasteful, arguing that it was filled with lawmakers’ pet projects. “It makes my blood boil,” Scott said last week.
Democrats quickly condemned what they saw as glaring hypocrisy among the Republicans who voted against the aid but were quick to criticize Biden as a commander in chief leading from behind in addressing Ukraine’s needs.


“'We should send more lethal aid to Ukraine which I voted against last week’ is making my brain melt,” tweeted Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted divisions in the Republican Party on U.S. involvement overseas and the standing of the NATO alliance. For decades, during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, the GOP embraced a hawkish view with robust military spending and certainty about coming to the aid of allies.
President Donald Trump’s “America First” outlook and efforts to undermine NATO, including questioning why the military alliance even existed, secured a foothold in the GOP, reflected in the response of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to Ukraine. In a video Wednesday, Greene blamed both Russia and Ukraine, and warned against U.S. intervention. Biden has said repeatedly that he would not send U.S. troops to fight.


Potential 2024 presidential candidates such as Scott have been highly critical of Biden, who also announced Wednesday that the Pentagon was sending nearly $1 billion in military equipment to Ukraine, including 800 Stinger antiaircraft systems, 100 drones, 25,000 helmets and more than 20 million rounds of small-arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds.
In early February, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another possible White House candidate, sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting that the United States would be worse off if Ukraine were admitted to NATO, the military alliance of 30 mainly Western countries — including the United States — bound by a mutual defense treaty, and argued that the United States should instead focus on countering China.
Hawley, who voted against the spending bill with billions for Ukraine, said Wednesday that Biden needs to “step up” and send MiG jet fighters and other weapons to Ukraine, accusing the administration of “dragging its feet.”


The Pentagon has rebuffed Poland’s offer to send MiG fighter jets to Ukraine amid fears of further escalation involving a NATO country.
In a statement Thursday, Hawley said, “Aid for Ukraine should not be held hostage to the Democrats’ pet projects and I did not support the massive $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill stuffed with billions in earmarks.”
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee who also voted against the spending bill, told MSNBC on Thursday that the United States “can do more” for Ukraine.
“There were all sorts of particular ways where the administration yesterday said a lot of the right things, but just because the pen was in President Biden’s hand yesterday doesn’t mean that weapons are in Zelensky’s hands today. And at every point we’re too slow, and it feels like a huge part of the administration’s audience is internal lawyers, and they do these offensive and defensive legal-hairsplitting arguments,” Sasse said.


On the Senate floor Thursday, Sasse argued that the spending bill wasn’t “really about Ukrainian aid,” but a “whole bunch of schlock.”
“Ukrainian aid was a little bit of sugar on the larger medicine of a $1.5 trillion bill that nobody would actually want to go home and to defend to the voters, and to the taxpayers of America, as well thought out,” he said.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) countered that the only way to deliver aid to Ukraine and massive legislation is through compromise.
“Inside every piece of legislation are elements that many of us disagree with,” Murphy said. “Inside that budget that you voted against are all sorts of things that I disagree with. But in the end, in order to govern the country, you have to be able to find a path to compromise.”

Schatz, in an interview with The Washington Post after the exchange between Sasse and Murphy, said the vote in favor of the aid was an “easy” one.

“It’s very simple: If you don’t vote for the thing, you’re not for the thing,” Schatz said. “That is literally our job, to decide whether we are for or against things as a binary question.”
“So you don’t get to say: ‘Even though I voted against Ukraine aid, that I’m actually for it, and here’s my explanation,’” Schatz added, arguing that Republicans were trying to have it both ways by maintaining their fidelity to Trump — who has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin — and become “Zelensky fans” at the same time.

“They voted to exonerate Trump for this specific reason, which was to withhold aid from Zelensky, and here they are again, opposing aid to Zelensky,” Schatz said. “So now they’re doing it twice. They’re still acting as if they’re defenders of Western-style democracy.”
The day before voting against the bill, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), another possible presidential candidate, posted on Twitter about the need to come to Ukraine’s aid. “Helping Ukraine defend itself against a ruthless dictator is in our best interest,” he tweeted.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) tweeted a clip declaring the importance of assisting Ukraine. “It’s not much of a deterrent when the assistance you provide comes after the invasion,” he wrote. “We need to have President Zelensky’s back and expedite aid to Ukraine.”

Hours later, Cramer voted against the spending bill.
Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-La.) tweeted a clip the day he voted against the bill of him speaking to the need to give Ukraine more aircraft.
“The Ukrainian people and President Zelensky are fighting well above their weight, but they need planes,” he said on Fox News. “He made that very clear to us on the phone Saturday.”
“Give the man his planes,” Kennedy added.
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee, was widely mocked when he called Russia the “number one geopolitical foe” during a debate with President Barack Obama, a remark that in hindsight seems prescient.

Romney, like other Republicans, has pressed Biden to send more aid to Ukraine. He also voted against the spending bill with billions for the country.
Romney said that while he “strongly” supports providing aid to Ukrainians, he “ultimately could not support the rest of this bloated spending bill for the aforementioned reasons.”
“Forcing us to swallow the bad to get the good is concerning, unsustainable, and no way to govern over the long term,” he said.
Romney and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) are separately leading an effort with 40 of their Senate GOP colleagues to urge Biden to work with Poland and other NATO allies to expedite the transfer of aircraft and air-defense systems to Ukraine. Of those 40 Republicans, 25 voted against the aid package.
While increasing domestic spending and keeping the government open, the sweeping spending bill also increased spending for the U.S. military by 5.6 percent, totaling $762 billion. The bill includes a 2.7 percent pay increase for all active-duty troops.
Several Republicans were critical of Ukraine in 2017, when Trump began spreading a conspiracy theory that it was Ukraine — and not Russia — that interfered with the 2016 election. Two years later, Democrats accused Trump of leveraging military assistance and an Oval Office meeting with Zelensky in exchange for investigations of Biden and his son Hunter Biden, and the debunked theory alleging Ukrainian interference in the election.
The House impeached Trump; the Senate acquitted him on charges that he abused the powers of his office and obstructed Congress. All the Senate Republicans except Romney voted for acquittal.
Sen. Mazie Hirano (D-Hawaii) told the Post Thursday that Republican lawmakers arguing for more aid for Ukraine days after voting against a bill to provide assistance is “the height of hypocrisy.”
“Some of them will find every way they can to criticize Joe Biden,” Hirono said. “And I think it’s more than ironic that the president that they continue to support withheld aid to Ukraine for political purposes.”
As several of these Republicans who voted against the bill criticized Biden, one Republican pointed to the disconnect.
Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who voted for the bill, advised his party to stop sending “mixed messages” and lamented that the spending bill with nearly $14 billion for Ukraine didn’t pass the Senate 100-0, according to Politico.
And on Thursday, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, tweeted that the was “grateful” to the United States, which he described as Ukraine’s “reliable partner.”
“[Biden] does more for [Ukraine] than any of his predecessors,” Yermak tweeted.
How many of these asshats claimed credit for the infrastructure bill after they voted against it?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,884
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This is consistent with what I've been reading from defense analysts. They've largely exhausted their SRBM and ALCM inventories. They've still got ship based stuff in the Black Sea but that's limited to and likely been held in reserve if they make a try for Odessa.

Speculation is that the military represented larger reserves of such weapons to Putin than they actually had.
 
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