Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[sportage]

You seriously should go play in traffic and do the country a favor

Ignore it. This shit is coming from the Q's.
My Qniece is telling everyone OH, PUTIN IS ONLY GOING AFTER MILITARY TARGETS. PUTIN WOULD NEVER KILL CHILDREN. THE MEDIA IS LYING ABOUT THE CIVILIANS.

I would like to get ten people together from Anandtech to join me to go over and kick her ass.
These f-ing morons that believe this shit are getting their matching orders directly from the Kremlin. I think its time for some old fashion Q ass kicking.

 

[emperus]

Your posts have zero substance. At least try to substantiate your claims.

No point. If you really wanted the truth/more info about what you wrote, you'd google it. You're a troll.

 

[sportage]

Too bad that Ronald Reagan's dream of a "star wars" technology against nukes never became reality. If we had such a technology then we could rescue Ukraine from Putin, and ignore Putin and his nuke talk.

 

[Jaskalas]

I'm not sure Ukraine can hold out for 100 days. I'm hoping it lasts nowhere near that long.

This fire will burn Russians decades from now.

 

[alien42]

Assuming Putin's forces were 190K as reported, 9K is roughly 5% kill rate in 6 days of war. If these numbers are to be believed Putin will run out of men in little over 100 days.

I don't know. I'd love to believe this is true, but I just keep thinking it's too good to be true.

don't forget that 190k includes non fighting support troops as well.

 

[Muse]

Lets fuck up Iraq and install a democracy.
Lets fuck up Afghanistan and install a democracy.
Fail fail fail fail.
But here is a country that is SCREAMING from the top of their lungs that this is what it wants.
The West: That Putin guy? Not our problem.
In terms of *damage* to the west, compare Putin to Bin Laden.
Who has done the most damage?

The West: That Putin guy? Not our problem.

But level Afghanistan to get to a few terrorists and spend a fuckton trillion dollars on it.

Yes sir.

Its some hypocritical bullshit is what it is.

What did Teddy Roosevelt say?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Stick_ideology#:~:text=Big%20stick%20ideology%2C%20big%20stick,sufficiently%20far%20in%20advance%20of

Big stick ideology, big stick diplomacy, or big stick policy refers to President Theodore Roosevelt’s foreign policy: "speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far."[1] Roosevelt described his style of foreign policy as "the exercise of intelligent forethought and of decisive action sufficiently far in advance of any likely crisis."[2]

Those ~6000 nukes are a pretty big stick. I don't think they'll use them but you don't just push them around.

 

[manly]

Assuming Putin's forces were 190K as reported, 9K is roughly 5% kill rate in 6 days of war. If these numbers are to be believed Putin will run out of men in little over 100 days.

I don't know. I'd love to believe this is true, but I just keep thinking it's too good to be true.

Per the NYT reporting yesterday, Western analysts estimate that military KIA for both Russia and Ukraine are about 2000. These are rough estimates, but give us something to go by.

 

[Muse]

Yeah, you can't allow that stockpile to be in the "control" of a failed state. Nope.

There's NATO, which is a brilliant concept. Putin can nibble, maybe, but he's flanked by NATO and he's fully aware that he doesn't dare attack a NATO nation. He said his concern was UK getting into NATO, and the events of the last week and my studies of them have me thinking that that really was a big concern of his. If he fails to take UK now, I've got figure that UK will go NATO and that would be a great thing, it would be a major failure for Putin.

 

[Muse]

My opinion is that the status quo is rolling over anyway. But. In terms of extermination of the human race, I must admit that I'd rather see planet earth under Putin rule than extinction of mankind.
So maybe we should just hand it to him and spare everyone the middle part?

43 million Ukrainians disagree with you. I don't know how much filtering there is going on, I have no reason to believe there's any, but that doesn't mean there isn't. All the Ukrainians I've seen interviewed said they're up for fighting to the death to defend their homeland.

 

[Zorba]

Assuming Putin's forces were 190K as reported, 9K is roughly 5% kill rate in 6 days of war. If these numbers are to be believed Putin will run out of men in little over 100 days.

I don't know. I'd love to believe this is true, but I just keep thinking it's too good to be true.

Don't forget there is probably about a 3 to 1 wounded to killed ratio (somewhat backed up by the BS number published by Russia), plus deserters and POWs.

 

[theeedude]

If Putin fails to hold the Ukraine, which he probably will fail, sooner or later, he's done. The Ukraine might join NATO, but it would be a moot point if it demonstrates that it can beat Russia by itself even when starting at a disadvantage. When fully equipped to match its already high morale, it will become one of the most dominant militaries in Europe, like Israel is in the Middle East. Russia, on the other hand will have demonstrated severe weakness and likely descent into chaos and its own separatist conflicts encouraged by the likes of Turkey in the Muslim south and China in Siberia. I don't think the West necessarily wants Siberia in Chinese hands, so once the Putin government falls, it is likely they will need to work quickly with the new, democratic, Russian government to stabilize it and integrate it into the West, which it failed to do in the 90s.

 

[alien42]

If Putin fails to hold the Ukraine, which he probably will fail, sooner or later, he's done. The Ukraine might join NATO, but it would be a moot point if it demonstrates that it can beat Russia by itself even when starting at a disadvantage. When fully equipped to match its already high morale, it will become one of the most dominant militaries in Europe, like Israel is in the Middle East. Russia, on the other hand will have demonstrated severe weakness and likely descent into chaos and its own separatist conflicts encouraged by the likes of Turkey in the Muslim south and China in Siberia. I don't think the West necessarily wants Siberia in Chinese hands, so once the Putin government falls, it is likely they will need to work quickly with the new, democratic, Russian government to stabilize it and integrate it into the West, which it failed to do in the 90s.

it's just Ukraine, not the Ukraine. you don't say the Russia or the China do you?

 

[uclaLabrat]

No but you do say the Netherlands.

Just sayin.

 

[Meghan54]

No but you do say the Netherlands.

Just sayin.

Like one says “the United States” but not “the Canada” or “the Germany.”

 

[Jaskalas]

Report: Special Operation Forces of Ukraine warns Russian artillerymen, that after attacks on civilian population they will be no longer taken as POWs

1 million+ refugees, untold dead and wounded, Ukraine has suffered immensely. Now the number of men who want Russian blood is rising. Mercy for Russians is dwindling by the hour.

This is a scar that will last a hundred years, if not more. Afghanistan to this day is nothing like it was prior to the Russian invasion. A tribal wasteland exporting violence. Difference is, Ukraine is Russia's front yard, and they'll have sympathizers and fellow separatists in Georgia, and Chechnya. It is quite possible, even likely, that Putin stoked the flames of hatred within Russia's own land, and Russia may, in the decades to follow, lose land to a people reclaiming their homes, maybe even going further.

Best thing Putin can do is keep Zelensky alive. Keep the Ukrainian government alive. So they can rebuild and maintain peace later. Shatter them, and Russia may very well shatter itself.

 

[AtenRa]

If Putin fails to hold the Ukraine, which he probably will fail, sooner or later, he's done. The Ukraine might join NATO, but it would be a moot point if it demonstrates that it can beat Russia by itself even when starting at a disadvantage. When fully equipped to match its already high morale, it will become one of the most dominant militaries in Europe, like Israel is in the Middle East. Russia, on the other hand will have demonstrated severe weakness and likely descent into chaos and its own separatist conflicts encouraged by the likes of Turkey in the Muslim south and China in Siberia. I don't think the West necessarily wants Siberia in Chinese hands, so once the Putin government falls, it is likely they will need to work quickly with the new, democratic, Russian government to stabilize it and integrate it into the West, which it failed to do in the 90s.

I dont know if Putin wants to occupy the entire Ukraine, im guessing he wants to take the south Ukraine and completely close access of Ukraine to Black Sea. By doing so he will increase its EEZ in the Black Sea tremendously and control Russians access to warm seas (Mediterranean sea). He wants to take east Ukraine and most probably North and especially the city of Kyiv. When he will accomplish all his objectives he will make a deal with Ukraine to stop the war and not move forward and completely occupy Ukraine , in exchange to keep all territories he have occupied so far. It may take 5-6 weeks or more to accomplish his goals but eventually he will, time is with Putin not Ukraine, he can push them for more longer than Ukraine can handle.
Also, Turkey say they will not impose any economic sanctions to Russia, they are too depended on Russia in many areas (economic, military, geopolitical etc) and any economic sanctions will even worsen Turkey's already declining economy even more. Turkey poses no thread to Russia today, and im sure Turkey will continue to play in both blocks (east and west).

One more thing I would like to point out is that Putin will be even stronger inside Russia after this invasion, he will become more authoritarian, he will impose martial law and will have complete control over media and the state (much like Erdogan in Turkey).

 

[PowerEngineer]

I would very much like to believe that Ukraine has a chance of beating back the Russian invasion.

What seems (at least to me) much more likely is that Putin will continue to ramp up the brutality of Russian military action until he succeeds in establishing a puppet regime in Ukraine. He may have wanted and expected a quick and relatively bloodless invasion, but Putin will not shy away from making this a long and bloody war if that is what it takes to eventually "win". The toll of Russian and Ukrainian casualties will mean little to him. The pressure of Russian forces (however inept) will slowly continue to make gains, outside aid will eventually be cut off, major cities subject to siege warfare, civilian casualties will skyrocket, and without supplies Ukrainian military units will be forced to surrender.

I very much want to be wrong. 😔

 

[RnR_au]

One more thing I would like to point out is that Putin will be even stronger inside Russia after this invasion, he will become more authoritarian, he will impose martial law and will have complete control over media and the state (much like Erdogan in Turkey).

I'm not sure if this is entirely true. Apparently Russians were happy with Putin's occasionally folly's as long as the economy was bubbling along. How long can Russia's economy carry on without substantial reforms? Soviet styled reforms? I don't think the citizens of Russia will be happy without their latest iphones and other bespoke pieces of capitalism.

 

[AtenRa]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true. Apparently Russians were happy with Putin's occasionally folly's as long as the economy was bubbling along. How long can Russia's economy carry on without substantial reforms? Soviet styled reforms? I don't think the citizens of Russia will be happy without their latest iphones and other bespoke pieces of capitalism.

They can get everything from China, no problem.

Also, black market from other countries (Turkey etc)

 

[RnR_au]

They can get everything from China, no problem.

Also, black market from other countries (Turkey etc)

Sure, but Apple Pay won't work inside Russia from my understanding. However not sure how pervasive such payment services are in Russia. Netflix is probably about get kicked from the country since they are refusing to carry Russian state media on their service.

And does Russia really want to be dependent on China? Turkey will do well. I agree with your black market notion... from memory it was very well alive during the Soviet era.

Edit: Ukrainian airforce still alive and active...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499279801768677376

...and Germany is now helping in a massive way...


Take salt...

 

[AtenRa]

Sure, but Apple Pay won't work inside Russia from my understanding. However not sure how pervasive such payment services are in Russia. Netflix is probably about get kicked from the country since they are refusing to carry Russian state media on their service.

And does Russia really want to be dependent on China? Turkey will do well. I agree with your black market notion... from memory it was very well alive during the Soviet era.

Edit: Ukrainian airforce still alive and active...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499279801768677376

...and Germany is now helping in a massive way...
View attachment 58161

They didnt wait for the Western economic sanctions to import goods from China, they already do for years and the Chinese market will still be open for them since China will not impose any sanctions against Russia.
There are more countries in the east they can import goods not only China but what they will not get from west (EU/US) they can from other sources.

Turkey will be more than happy to "transfer" western goods to Russia.

EU will also feel the pressure from those sanctions, they export more than 50B US to Russia.

 

[RnR_au]

I've posted several times a value of $20bil/day as the rough costs to Russia for conducting this war. Comes from this study (archive link as the original seems dos'ed) - https://web.archive.org/web/2022030...war-costs-russian-military-20-billion-per-day

Another study has appeared which says its much closer to $500mil/day - https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/russias-low-cost-war-can-endure-western-sanctions/

The studies arn't measuring exactly the same things, but maybe Russia can keep this war going for a much longer time than (at least I) anticipated

Sanctions however will have a real bite.

 

[cytg111]

Its the only way.. If not a direct kinetic response, which I think it should be, by proxy in Ukraine - cause he's got the world against him, he's got his country against him, lets press this fucking button - But yea yea, lets not give him an excuse to drop the sun...
Then second best way is this long game of extremely high pressure sanctions.
But lets get real, China dont want to be the last big regime around, they got Russia's back.
One way or the other we have to break Putins back. I'd like for it to happen before 2024 too, if you get what I am getting at.

 

[Leeea]

Well aware they're a member. Doesn't mean that covert actions won't be on the table. Putin has always been more likely to target in former soviet states.

Russia is already attacking the world with covert actions:

Toyota stops production in Japan after a cyberattack hits one of its suppliers

The suspected attack forced Toyota, one of the world's largest auto manufacturers, to suspend operations at 14 of its Japanese plants, affecting the production of about 13,000 vehicles.

www.npr.org

.

We are already at state of war with the Russian Federation, we need to wake up to that fact.

FINALLY! A tax law we can all agree is fair!

Who would have thought the realistic part of Grand Theft Auto was the part about stealing the tank?

 

[biostud]

Unfortunately, I think Putin is willing to sacrifice a lot of innocent Russians, and because how the culture/history/media censorship of Russia is, the population is not going to uprise. I think they will take the suffering of the sanctions and the lives lost in the war as part of "being Russian", like it is a natural law or simply the destiny of the Russian people, always to suffer.