Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

The rhetoric out of Moscow these days seems to indicate Russia will try for some sort of major offensive in Donbas around the 1 year mark. If their forces are actually ready to conduct such an operation is another question entirely but there is probably some motivation to get ahead of new weapons they're going to face in the field soon. Though of course the Ukrainians are aware of this possibility and surely making their own preparations to appropriately welcome them.

 

[Zorba]

Or are we going to make the Ukrainians fight to the last Ukrainian like Lindsey Graham wants?

The fact that people in this country don't even bring up the idea of ending this was in a negotiation just shows how propagandized they are by mainstream media. If you don't hear Rachel Maddow, Don Lemon, Morning Joe, Wolf Blitzer or any other propagandist pushing the idea, the public won't either. Sad!

So what you are saying is that you believe Ukrainians are a bunch of mindless drones that the United States is single handedly ordering to their deaths?

 

[K1052]

So what you are saying is that you believe Ukrainians are a bunch of mindless drones that the United States is single handedly ordering to their deaths?

I think the implication is that we've somehow duped the Ukrainians into dying for us just to hurt Russia, not that they simply want their country and are super angry at Russia for conducting an unprovoked invasion thats cost scores of lives.

 

[K1052]

Russian assault on Vuhledar continues to not go real well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621112159873941504

 

[Zorba]

The rhetoric out of Moscow these days seems to indicate Russia will try for some sort of major offensive in Donbas around the 1 year mark. If their forces are actually ready to conduct such an operation is another question entirely but there is probably some motivation to get ahead of new weapons they're going to face in the field soon. Though of course the Ukrainians are aware of this possibility and surely making their own preparations to appropriately welcome them.

Hopefully they pick mud season again.

 

[Pens1566]

100% dead on! This guy goes back on ignore. He's just spouting Russian propaganda. Waste of our time honestly.

There hasn't been any eastward NATO expansion in almost 20 years. And if you (Russia) weren't worried about the Baltics joining at that time, you (Russia) really have no logical argument now about a non-existent Ukraine addition.

Unless you're (Russia) really super concerned about the Montenegro and N. Macedonia additions ... those are real game changers.

 

[vi edit]

Do our intel agencies have a good assessment of what even the mobilization (hardware wise, tanks, APC's, artillery, ect) capability of Russia is at this point? How much of their shit is even left? I highly doubt they are capable of replacing that (well) in a year.

 

[Brovane]

Do our intel agencies have a good assessment of what even the mobilization (hardware wise, tanks, APC's, artillery, ect) capability of Russia is at this point? How much of their shit is even left? I highly doubt they are capable of replacing that (well) in a year.

I would assume they do and are probably passing along information to Ukraine. However they are not talking about it publicly, which they shouldn't.

 

[Jaskalas]

So what you are saying is that you believe Ukrainians are a bunch of mindless drones that the United States is single handedly ordering to their deaths?

From a Russian, that would make sense.
This is their exact strategy in combat.

Spoiler: Not Safe for Life (NSFL)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621095382771175426

 

[Perknose]

I think the implication is that we've somehow duped the Ukrainians into dying for us just to hurt Russia, not that they simply want their country and are super angry at Russia for conducting an unprovoked invasion thats cost scores of lives.

Which is an ungodly stupid and ignorant idea to put forth. The Ukrainians are dying in great numbers for the preservation of their country and their culture, against an overwhelmingly bigger and brutal adversary.

Whoever denies this is expending great emotional energy to lie to themselves.

 

[Racan]

Ukraine hails French gift of radar as 'cherry on the cake'

Ukraine’s defense minister says Ukrainian lives will be saved by a sophisticated air-defense radar that France is supplying.

apnews.com

Must be some some advanced stuff.

 

[gorobei]

Do our intel agencies have a good assessment of what even the mobilization (hardware wise, tanks, APC's, artillery, ect) capability of Russia is at this point? How much of their shit is even left? I highly doubt they are capable of replacing that (well) in a year.

they probably do, but as brovane said it isnt publicly available yet.

i posted yt vid a while back where a wartechtuber paid for the at the time current sat photos of all the rus storage yards and hand counted all the remaining vehicles vs sat images from a year or two earlier. the raw count was roughly 40% of the afv were gone from the yards. if you assume that those were the ones able to be mobilized and that a good percentage were in disrepair the remaining usable vehicles is probably half. so 10k (before the war) - 4k sent to UKR = 6k -(however many have been raided for parts or rusted out ~50%) = 3k. [we have very little idea of how many are modernish t72 t80 t90 vs cold war era t62 t64 or ww2 era antiques]

someone posted images of rus tanks being prepped for the war showing t72's and t80's refitted with older gen1 thermal sights, suggesting that rus doesnt have enough of the modern gen 2 sights. if we see t62 with thermal sights upgrades then it is pretty safe to say rus is unlikely to be able to rebuild their forces to modern standards for 2023.
if sanctions are maintained and continue to hit hard it is unlikely there will be enough blackmarket backdoors/strawman purchases for rus manufacturers to get the high tech parts needed to build modern thermal sighted fire control systems that give the gunner and tank commander separate sights. miltary grade thermal sight parts cant have a huge market and any foreign customer ordering the numbers that rus would need is going to attract attention. the export controls arent as lax as the lawnmower engines in the iranian kamikaze drones.

 

[rommelrommel]

Do our intel agencies have a good assessment of what even the mobilization (hardware wise, tanks, APC's, artillery, ect) capability of Russia is at this point? How much of their shit is even left? I highly doubt they are capable of replacing that (well) in a year.

Hardware has been open sourced to some extent and they're likely 1-2 years away from running out of stuff like tanks, APC, IFV, SPG, towed artillery, etc at similar loss rates. But, most is coming out of storage and will just get older, more cobbled together, more compromised in terms of electronics, optics, and other modern stuff like ERA. Like, they do have many thousands of tanks in reserve, but a large proportion are low spec very old models that have been sitting outside in the Siberian weather for 40+ years. A lot of them will probably never return to service.

 

[K1052]

Ukraine hails French gift of radar as 'cherry on the cake'

Ukraine’s defense minister says Ukrainian lives will be saved by a sophisticated air-defense radar that France is supplying.

apnews.com

Must be some some advanced stuff.

Ukraine has also received TRML 4D sets from Germany and more will arrive with the additional IRIS-T SLM systems due to them this year. By the middle to end of the year Ukraine will sport a very sophisticated air defense network as it integrates all these, the Patriots, more NASAMS 3, and SAMP/T.

 

[woolfe9998]

Tired of Trump and conservative misinformation campaigns. Apparently they are misquoting Biden as having said "sending Americans tanks to Ukraine will cause WWIII," when he actually said that sending Americans troops, and American tanks manned by Americans, would cause WWIII. And of course, Musk is giving "oxygen" to the viral meme on Twitter.

Fact check: Trump and viral meme remove key words from Biden's quote about Ukraine and 'World War III'

Former President Donald Trump, who is now running for president again, made an inaccurate claim on Wednesday about his successor's response to the Russian war in Ukraine. Trump said in an online video that President Joe Biden is "now doing what he said 10 months ago would lead to World War III...

www.cnn.com

Misquote is done by hacking out some of Biden's words. And this kind of shit goes viral.

 

[vi edit]

Tired of Trump and conservative misinformation campaigns. Apparently they are misquoting Biden as having said "sending Americans tanks to Ukraine will cause WWIII," when he actually said that sending Americans troops, and American tanks manned by Americans, would cause WWIII. And of course, Musk is giving "oxygen" to the viral meme on Twitter.

Fact check: Trump and viral meme remove key words from Biden's quote about Ukraine and 'World War III'

Former President Donald Trump, who is now running for president again, made an inaccurate claim on Wednesday about his successor's response to the Russian war in Ukraine. Trump said in an online video that President Joe Biden is "now doing what he said 10 months ago would lead to World War III...

www.cnn.com

Misquote is done by hacking out some of Biden's words. And this kind of shit goes viral.

But what are Elon's politics????

 

[Perknose]

I'm not a Musk fanboy by any yardstick, but I have had enormous respect for Musk's accomplishment with Tesla. Birthing a successful effing car company is akin, in some respects, to founding your own nation. It is and was no small feat. So . . . it took many incidents for me to finally conclude that this guy is, in many respects, an idiot manboy of the first degree. #Sad

 

[Jaskalas]

Whoever denies this is expending great emotional energy to lie to themselves.

Au contraire, mon frère. It takes no energy at all to exist in a headspace that is predefined by one's identity.
Facts are only facts if we agree with them.

Such as who attacked who first. Anyone can drum up a narrative to belie who attacked whom, even with direct video evidence, and people will still be in the tank for whatever preconceived notions make their side look good. If Russian TV says NATO is attacking Russia, then many good Russians will know it to be true. Some might resist, but many will believe. Most of them will never know what you know. It is who we trust that defines us.

 

[fskimospy]

I'm not a Musk fanboy by any yardstick, but I have had enormous respect for Musk's accomplishment with Tesla. Birthing a successful effing car company is akin, in some respects, to founding your own nation. It is and was no small feat. So . . . it took many incidents for me to finally conclude that this guy is, in many respects, an idiot manboy of the first degree. #Sad

I think both Tesla and SpaceX are great companies and while we can debate his individual contributions to them they are still great. It’s sad to see him light his reputation on fire because of some weird emotional insecurities.

 

[RnR_au]

But what are Elon's politics????

He is part of the ownership class now. He is just signalling to the Trump folk that Twitter is 'open for business'. Truth.social isn't the only game in town to get your alternative facts from.

 

[Brovane]

Tired of Trump and conservative misinformation campaigns. Apparently they are misquoting Biden as having said "sending Americans tanks to Ukraine will cause WWIII," when he actually said that sending Americans troops, and American tanks manned by Americans, would cause WWIII. And of course, Musk is giving "oxygen" to the viral meme on Twitter.

Fact check: Trump and viral meme remove key words from Biden's quote about Ukraine and 'World War III'

Former President Donald Trump, who is now running for president again, made an inaccurate claim on Wednesday about his successor's response to the Russian war in Ukraine. Trump said in an online video that President Joe Biden is "now doing what he said 10 months ago would lead to World War III...

www.cnn.com

Misquote is done by hacking out some of Biden's words. And this kind of shit goes viral.

You have to be real careful what you repeat, forward, etc because you could be repeating BS. Unfortunately Musk doesn't understand that when he is on Twitter while he is taking a crap.

 

[K1052]

German government has approved export of Leopard 1 from industry stocks to Ukraine. Generally people think there are about 200 of these in a near-ish to ready state (able to be provided over a few months) between Rheinmetall and KMW.

Total size of the mothballed Leo 1 stock is unknown but thought to be well into the hundreds of tanks but those would need longer to be serviceable.

Ukraine certainly would like another 15 Gepards too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621283730861051904

 

[bononos]

Zelensky has banned all opposition parties, TV stations, churches...Doesn't sound very democratic to me.

Did Zelensky use violence against his political opponents before the 2022 invasion?

 

[Indus]

Interesting..



Not sure if this will work but yep, that's one way to do it.

I personally think Turkey will just buy MiGs

 

[sdifox]

Interesting..

View attachment 75845

Not sure if this will work but yep, that's one way to do it.

I personally think Turkey will just buy MiGs

Not even the Turks want MiGs now