Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[RnR_au]

Some guff from the ground;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580827171903635456

And Russia is still reclaiming gear from its neighbour;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580990402689048576

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I mean, the hardware is already there... I'm in IT and someone would be hard pressed to explain to me what the recurring costs are for network system that's already established. They don't pay people to move bits around, and afaik they aren't launching new sats to support the war effort, so what exactly is costing them money? 50kbps, 50mbps, 50gbps, the hardware doesn't give a shit how much traffic it's pushing.

 

[rommelrommel]

220k armed with what tho?

A threat, but they need more than pitchforks and WWII hardware to make a serious push.

Belarussian forces are not equipped with much modern equipment. They have a handful of T80's and mostly somewhat modern at best T72. They have a very limited number of APC's, fairly old IFV's, decent artillery (but mostly old.) Their air force is old as fuck and likely not well trained. Individual equipment is likely quite poor outside of elite formations of which there aren't a lot.

 

[K1052]

Who is this more reliable supplier you speak of? Boeing?
SpaceX has proven themselves repeatedly to be a reliable provider of services for the US government.

Reliable in the sense that they are not likely to interfere in things that are not in their purview or make opaque decisions with their services that may run contrary to US interests.

If Musk is perceived as increasingly erratic and unpredictable it's going to hurt his business prospects with the government.

 

[Zorba]

Should Lockheed Martin be providing HIMARS units and rockets free to Ukraine also?
Should Raytheon provide free M982 Excalibur munitions to Ukraine?
Do you think that Starlink tiering providers should provide free services to SpaceX also?

SpaceX should get paid and have been. But they shouldn't bait and switch and massively jack up the price of service. If Boeing or Lockheed all of a sudden started charging 10x for their weapons headed to Ukraine I doubt you'd be such an apologist for it.

 

[K1052]

Belarussian forces are not equipped with much modern equipment. They have a handful of T80's and mostly somewhat modern at best T72. They have a very limited number of APC's, fairly old IFV's, decent artillery (but mostly old.) Their air force is old as fuck and likely not well trained. Individual equipment is likely quite poor outside of elite formations of which there aren't a lot.

The T-72s have been seen being shipped to Russia, replacements for losses in Donbas. The idea that Belarus is likely to mount a major offensive while Russia strips their munitions and vehicles for their own use elsewhere seems very unlikely.

 

[cytg111]

If Musk is perceived as increasingly erratic and unpredictable it's going to hurt his business prospects with the government.

Oh I think that ship has sailed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579974961267060738

 

[K1052]

The artillery fired anti tank mines appear to be very popular with the Ukrainians. Probably using them to cut off the Russians during advances.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581067541312479233

 

[K1052]

Oh I think that ship has sailed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579974961267060738

When Russian propaganda is favorably name checking you on the regular it's probably not ultimately good for your business relationship with the US government.

 

[Brovane]

SpaceX should get paid and have been. But they shouldn't bait and switch and massively jack up the price of service. If Boeing or Lockheed all of a sudden started charging 10x for their weapons headed to Ukraine I doubt you'd be such an apologist for it.

They haven't jacked up the price. Starlink has different tiers of service as most ISP's do.

 

[cytg111]

There is also this

How true is it though?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581075601049669634

 

[Brovane]

I mean, the hardware is already there... I'm in IT and someone would be hard pressed to explain to me what the recurring costs are for network system that's already established. They don't pay people to move bits around, and afaik they aren't launching new sats to support the war effort, so what exactly is costing them money? 50kbps, 50mbps, 50gbps, the hardware doesn't give a shit how much traffic it's pushing.

Data gets moved from the Starlink Satellites to the Internet and then back to the end user of Starlink services. They have to transit through ground stations and those ground stations will have fiber connections running to them. A ISP like SpaceX will contract out to other Service Providers for that fiber connectivity. SpaceX will also have transit fees they have to pay for sending data through other providers backbones.

SpaceX is constantly launching Starlink Satellites to improve Starlink capacity and continue the full build out of the network.

 

[Leeea]

What's the point of sat coms that can't move? Considering how fast the satellites are moving, I'd like to see a real analysis on how big of a deal the transceiver moving at at <50 mph actually is. Cell phones are designed to operate at like 100 mph or faster, while communicating with fixed towers not satellites moving at thousands of miles per hour.

The starlink disk aims itself at the satellite. The base "cheap" unit cannot do that when it is on an unstable platform.

They haven't jacked up the price. Starlink has different tiers of service as most ISP's do.

This is where you are wrong.

Starlink made a deal with US Aid to provide this service in exchange for several million dollars. A charitable deal, but a deal none the less.

Musk is now backing out of that deal. Pretty much the definition of jacking up the price.


Musk claims the original deal is unsustainable. Maybe so, but make no mistake the man is changing the terms of the deal, and you better pray he does not alter it further.


People tend to react negatively to that sort of price adjustment.


What he is asking now is way more then the street price of the same service. Raises eyebrows more then a little bit. Either Musk's internet service is massively unprofitable on all its terminals, or Musk is lying.

 

[Bitek]

Some guff from the ground;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580827171903635456

Wow, that is brutal.

If Elon is actually the genius he wants us to believe, perhaps he should stay off the Twitter he is buying with all his piles of FU money.

How much is Tesla looking to gain from all the new EV subsidies passed in the IRA bill?

He really just needs to STFU and focus on product development.

 

[Brovane]

This is where you are wrong.

Starlink made a deal with US Aid to provide this service in exchange for several million dollars. A charitable deal, but a deal none the less.

Musk is now backing out of that deal. Pretty much the definition of jacking up the price.


Musk claims the original deal is unsustainable. Maybe so, but make no mistake the man is changing the terms of the deal, and you better pray he does not alter it further.


People tend to react negatively to that sort of price adjustment.

The deal with US Aid was to provide the terminals and Internet service for a set period of time, which I think was 6-months.
SpaceX didn't make a deal to provide both the terminals and Internet service forever to Ukraine. Nobody has altered the deal.

 

[Zorba]

The starlink disk aims itself at the satellite. The base "cheap" unit cannot do that when it is on an unstable platform.

I get that, that has to do with the cost of the transceiver not the cost of providing the service.

 

[Jaskalas]

Ukrainian Armed Forces killed 500 Russian soldiers and destroyed 17 UAVs on 13 October
Heavy burn rate.

 

[cytg111]

“Soldiers”

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Data gets moved from the Starlink Satellites to the Internet and then back to the end user of Starlink services. They have to transit through ground stations and those ground stations will have fiber connections running to them. A ISP like SpaceX will contract out to other Service Providers for that fiber connectivity. SpaceX will also have transit fees they have to pay for sending data through other providers backbones.

SpaceX is constantly launching Starlink Satellites to improve Starlink capacity and continue the full build out of the network.

Then Spacex needs to be pushing to get those transit fees waived, with the full backing of the Pentagon. Unless you have evidence otherwise, Starlink is not launching new sats specifically to facilitate communications on this warfront.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

And maybe you shouldn’t insult your ally’s

Elon Musk's peace plan for Ukraine draws condemnation from Zelenskyy

The Tesla CEO tweeted a plan that includes allowing Russia to keep Crimea, which it seized in 2014. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that Musk was taking sides with Russia.

www.npr.org

This has lead to some colorful tweets from Ukraine’s Gov.

 

[Racan]

Interesting theory at 25:00 explaining the random nonmilitary targets hit with their limited supply of cruise missiles and other PGMs. And imo it sounds credible considering how incompetent they are.

 

[itsmydamnation]

The starlink disk aims itself at the satellite. The base "cheap" unit cannot do that when it is on an unstable platform.

what are you talking about, its electronicky beam steered. you think when someone puts them on a 10 meter poll with guy wires it stays still?

PS , use starlink in production in an environment that well exceeds wind ratings of any US millspec requirements.

 

[Zorba]

And maybe you shouldn’t insult your ally’s

Elon Musk's peace plan for Ukraine draws condemnation from Zelenskyy

The Tesla CEO tweeted a plan that includes allowing Russia to keep Crimea, which it seized in 2014. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that Musk was taking sides with Russia.

www.npr.org

This has lead to some colorful tweets from Ukraine’s Gov.

At the end of the day, Elon just can't stand not being the center of attention. And look it works, this thread is now half about him. He has really become a little mini trump.

 

[Michael]

Which is why I was happy to see Biden get it done with the IRA and other bills he's passed.
Feel like we have momentum now.

Anyways, don't want to derail anymore other to say just another reason not to be tied to petrodictorships like Russia and SA and their one dimensional economies.

Just to make sure you know, the first round of tariffs based by Obama/Biden destroyed the American Polysilicon industry which was world leading at the time.

Biden/Harris has stopped imports of panels and solar cells for quite a while and seriously has set the industry back.

Trump actually was reasonably benign for solar and other renewables. Republicans voted for the last big extension of the solar tax incentive, the one that IRA reset and extended again.

Texas has a lot of wind and solar power generation and it is about as R as you can get.

This is an area where knee jerk one side is good and the other is bad is really dumb.

 

[Leeea]

Just to make sure you know, the first round of tariffs based by Obama/Biden destroyed the American Polysilicon industry which was world leading at the time.

Biden/Harris has stopped imports of panels and solar cells for quite a while and seriously has set the industry back.

Trump actually was reasonably benign for solar and other renewables. Republicans voted for the last big extension of the solar tax incentive, the one that IRA reset and extended again.

Texas has a lot of wind and solar power generation and it is about as R as you can get.

This is an area where knee jerk one side is good and the other is bad is really dumb.

Bullshit.