Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Fanatical Meat]

Bullshit.

Agreed, I suspect a heavy level of bullshit in those claims.

 

[Leeea]

To elaborate, @Michael is refering to the anti-dumping tariffs placed on Chinese companies. Bi-partisan tariffs that Trump doubled down on:

Biden admin eases Trump-era solar tariffs but doesn't end them

U.S. President Joe Biden extended Trump-era tariffs on imported solar energy equipment by four years on Friday, but in a major concession to installers he also eased the terms to exclude a panel technology dominant among big U.S. projects.

www.reuters.com

He seems to feel those tariffs destroyed the American solar industry. Specifically, the poly-silicon manufacturers, on the theory that China would totally buy US poly-silicon rather then Chinese poly-silicon if we just let them destroy what remains of our cell manufacturing.

note: this post was edited

 

[Michael]

To elaborate, @Michael is refering to the anti-dumping tariffs placed on Chinese companies.

He seems to feel those tariffs destroyed the American solar cell industry.

They destroyed the polysilicon industry. USA never had much of a cell or panel industry to begin with. Even with the anti-dumping tariffs, panel manufacturing in the USA never made much sense (and still does not).

 

[Leeea]

Spoiler: click to show

Just to make sure you know, the first round of tariffs based by Obama/Biden destroyed the American Polysilicon industry which was world leading at the time.

Biden/Harris has stopped imports of panels and solar cells for quite a while and seriously has set the industry back.

Trump actually was reasonably benign for solar and other renewables. Republicans voted for the last big extension of the solar tax incentive, the one that IRA reset and extended again.

Texas has a lot of wind and solar power generation and it is about as R as you can get.

This is an area where knee jerk one side is good and the other is bad is really dumb.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...p-era-solar-tariffs-says-official-2022-02-04/

Former President Donald Trump imposed a four-year tariff regime on solar imports in 2018, using authority under section 201 of the 1974 trade act, in an effort to create manufacturing jobs in the U.S. solar sector. The tariffs started at 30% and declined to 15% in the final year.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/realsp...or-the-first-green-trade-war/?sh=27fe31ee6a7e

The Department of Commerce fired those shots last October, when it levied a 31 percent tariff on Chinese solar panel imports, supposedly as a “retaliatory antidumping measure” against “unfair” government subsidies to Chinese manufacturers that subsequently dumped their product onto the U.S. market.

Obama tariff: 31%
Trump tariff: 30%

Trump actually was reasonably benign for solar and other renewables.

*takes a long look at @Michael*
That 1%, it made all the difference, eh?

 

[fskimospy]

Just to make sure you know, the first round of tariffs based by Obama/Biden destroyed the American Polysilicon industry which was world leading at the time.

Biden/Harris has stopped imports of panels and solar cells for quite a while and seriously has set the industry back.

Trump actually was reasonably benign for solar and other renewables. Republicans voted for the last big extension of the solar tax incentive, the one that IRA reset and extended again.

Texas has a lot of wind and solar power generation and it is about as R as you can get.

This is an area where knee jerk one side is good and the other is bad is really dumb.

The idea that Biden stopped imports of solar panels is a lie. If anything he’s made solar easier to make.

Who told you this nonsense and why did you believe them?

 

[fskimospy]

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...p-era-solar-tariffs-says-official-2022-02-04/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/realsp...or-the-first-green-trade-war/?sh=27fe31ee6a7e


Obama tariff: 31%
Trump tariff: 30%



*takes a long look at @Michael*
That 1%, it made all the difference, eh?

It’s interesting how this guy sees reports from the battle in Ukraine and (correctly) realizes that’s propaganda but then suddenly thinks Trump was better for renewables than Biden.

It really shows how people are so easily snowed. He sees the propaganda in Ukraine and then is immediately duped by propaganda here.

 

[Brovane]

Then Spacex needs to be pushing to get those transit fees waived, with the full backing of the Pentagon.

So you think a ISP company in Poland is supposed to give SpaceX a free 10-100Gb fiber connection to it's Starlink ground station and it's tiering providers should just wave transit fees? Oh yes do all the Engineers working to make sure Starlink is working and make sure it is secure from Russian hacking, do they get paid our are they just volunteers?

Unless you have evidence otherwise, Starlink is not launching new sats specifically to facilitate communications on this warfront.

Do you understand how Low Earth Orbit works? The satellites don't just hover over Ukraine.

FYI - Good visualization of the Satellites. https://satellitemap.space/

 

[DaaQ]

So you think a ISP company in Poland is supposed to give SpaceX a free 10-100Gb fiber connection to it's Starlink ground station and it's tiering providers should just wave transit fees? Oh yes do all the Engineers working to make sure Starlink is working and make sure it is secure from Russian hacking, do they get paid our are they just volunteers?



Do you understand how Low Earth Orbit works? The satellites don't just hover over Ukraine.

FYI - Good visualization of the Satellites. https://satellitemap.space/

Are they Geo Stational?

 

[Michael]

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...p-era-solar-tariffs-says-official-2022-02-04/


https://www.forbes.com/sites/realsp...or-the-first-green-trade-war/?sh=27fe31ee6a7e


Obama tariff: 31%
Trump tariff: 30%



*takes a long look at @Michael*
That 1%, it made all the difference, eh?

Obama/Biden did a dual series of tariffs with no expiration. They were found to be illegal by the WTO. Their basis to calculate “dumping” was to pick fictional manufacturing location, invent what it would cost to make it there because there was no real large scale manufacturing happening, compare to their calculated cost in China and declare “dumping”. This was not even a hard case for the WTO to find against common sense.

In retaliation, the Chinese government placed a large tariff on USA polysilicon - the base material to make the ingots that become wafers and blocked and eventually destroyed the high value industry that was easily able to beat Chinese polysilicon suppliers on price and quality.

The whole panel case was initiated by a German company with a small and failing plant in Oregon. Ownership which was known to to close to a scam in Germany. Failed in Germany and USA because of excessive cost and of real supply chain and terrible quality (Solarworld).

Obama / Biden tariffs were overcome by overseas manufacturing and did zero to encourage USA manufacturing. The Trump admin tariffs had a fixed end, careful selection so that allies overseas were carved out and actually encouraged USA plants to get built as they were part of an overall strategy, not a toss in political favor to an Oregon senator that had a small factory near Portland.

Biden / Harris Commerce department accepted an extremely flimsy new dumping case for outside of China panels and then froze the whole industry crushing thousands of construction and operations jobs right before the invasion of Ukraine meaning that USA is losing gigawatts of power that instead is coming from polluting sources and burning gas that could be sent to Europe. The Biden admin then declared a moratorium on any tariffs for 2 years which is probably illegal and the actual rules don’t fully exist. Even if the rules were properly published, the executive order is being challenged in court and in a huge risk.

This mainly hits panels from Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. China does little direct export to the USA.

Not that it matters much as the actions against Xinjiang also happen to hit one main global source of the raw materials of metal grade polysilicon used in solar cells. This is a bulk mineral that is commonly intermingled and the law demands certification that it is Xinjiang free.

The result is that the solar power plant industry remains frozen and projects are not getting panel supplies and and not getting built.

At least the Biden admin incompetence here is allowing more panels to go to Europe.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

This thread needs the ...





and the ....

... to rid it of the distractions.

 

[Michael]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/world/europe/belarus-ukraine-war-russia.html

Good summary article on the situation in Belarus.

 

[Leeea]

blah blah blah

I do not have time to research your bullshit any more.

I already pointed out the difference between Trumps tariffs and Obama's tariffs were 1%.


Nobody has time to research all the bullshit your spewing out. It is always take your fucking word for it to.


That is all you do isn't it. Spew fucking bullshit? Confuse the issue, spew out lies, distract, run anyone who cares about the truth into the ground because you can spew lies faster then anyone can hope to correct them.


You sprinkle just a little bit of reality with a whole bunch of bullshit so it sounds good. Just a small element of what might be truth to make the big lie stick.


I am beginning to think the others are right, your an orc. A very clever one.

 

[Racan]

Bunching up two launchers this close together, a costly mistake...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581208210811531265

 

[cytg111]

At the end of the day, Elon just can't stand not being the center of attention. And look it works, this thread is now half about him. He has really become a little mini trump.

"Funny", was just thinking yesterday that Musk displays about the same level of emotional maturity as Trump.

 

[Racan]

A new push on Kherson?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581202694605533185

 

[zinfamous]

That is entirely too late for that, there is no coming back from all this bullshit. I think Elon has peaked, it may be down hill from here… Sure SpaceX has momentum but, if Starship is not on point…

Elons passion seems to have shifted from scifi to being the cool kid in Joe Rogans classroom.

This exactly.

You have to wonder why when people like LeBron speak out about things in public, or just say anything, he only gets "shut up and dribble," from the very same crowd that starts crying and complaining about free speech whenever someone like Elon gets criticized for saying...demonstrably horrible things in public that have absolutely nothing to do with his purported job of bringing electric cars to the world and sending wealthy assholes into space.

 

[Michael]

I do not have time to research your bullshit any more.

I already pointed out the difference between Trumps tariffs and Obama's tariffs were 1%.


Nobody has time to research all the bullshit your spewing out. It is always take your fucking word for it to.


That is all you do isn't it. Spew fucking bullshit? Confuse the issue, spew out lies, distract, run anyone who cares about the truth into the ground because you can spew lies faster then anyone can hope to correct them.


You sprinkle just a little bit of reality with a whole bunch of bullshit so it sounds good. Just a small element of what might be truth to make the big lie stick.


I am beginning to think the others are right, your an orc. A very clever one.

I don’t care if you don’t have time to research basic facts of the solar industry in the USA. I lived it, and the narrative I presented is very easy to find online.

For example, the Obama / Biden tariffs were found to be illegal by WTO:

WTO Rules US Solar Panel Anti-Dumping Tariffs Illegal

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has ruled the U.S. violated international trade agreements in 2012 by imposing anti-dumping tariffs and countervailing measures against imports of Chinese-made solar materials.

www.energymatters.com.au

Tariff imposed by Trump found to be legal:

WTO Panel Rejects China’s Solar Safeguard Challenge

WASHINGTON – A WTO dispute settlement panel today issued a public report rejecting China’s challenges to the U.S. safeguard tariffs on solar products in the dispute United States – Safeguard Measure on Imports of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products (DS562). This is the first successful...

ustr.gov

Solar Industry Paralyzed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/07/auxin-solar-projects-frozen/

Effects on the USA solar industry - including polysilicon production:

A decade into tariffs, US solar manufacturing is still deep in Asia's shadow

Washington has been unwilling to provide targeted incentives for solar manufacturing, relying instead on import tariffs that have raised panel prices while leaving the country dependent on factories in Southeast Asia.

www.spglobal.com

Specific discussion of the effect on the polysilicon industry:

Struggling US Polysilicon Producers Are a Forgotten Casualty in the Solar Trade War With China

www.greentechmedia.com

Final rules on pause in tariffs just passed - note, this action is in the courts as well and still is a huge risk.

US Pauses Circumvention Duties on Solar Panel Imports With Anti-Stockpiling Conditions - Mercom India

The United States has paused the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duty on imported solar cells and modules, which have been undergoing circumvention proceedings for two years. The U.S....

mercomindia.com

These were trivial to find and fully support my position.

The IRA gets a B+ for me. For the most part it just extends the existing investment tax credits. Well done political work to get it passed. It does 2 things for usa manufacturing - provides long term stability to the USA industry and incentives for USA production. Took too long to pass and is crippled by other actions like the above, but overall ok.

I fully support the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine other than wishing they provided support faster and with more of the weapons requested, but they have been very steady in their aid. I don’t think they thought through air defenses fully, but the systems needed are in much shorter supply.

As for being an orc, I only play humans and half-elves in my decades of choices to do so. Although I mainly run games but that involves presenting orcs for the heroes to defeat.

 

[RnR_au]

Some big movements in Kherson apparently. Hope for good news over the next few days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581264733852012547

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581204321961549824

 

[Michael]

Some big movements in Kherson apparently. Hope for good news over the next few days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581264733852012547

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581204321961549824

Twitter has more than usual reports of Ukraine attacks.

Followed quickly by claims that the attacks were repulsed and lots of death and equipment lost. My feelings on those posts are the same as this guy:

https://twitter.com/ebojfmcbtum/status/1581262692106764292

As usual, not many Ukraine sources confirming anything. Overall, Ukraine is much better at not blathering online about their operations.

 

[RnR_au]

Some news on the factional war inside the Kremlin;

9 🇷🇺 military correspondents can be charged under the article on discrediting the RF Armed Forces. These include Strelkov (Girkin), Grey Zone, and Rybar – some with 1 mln followers. This is an attack from 🇷🇺 military on FSB.


Back to the repressions of 1937: inevitable purges of loyal servants of the Putin regime. Putin escalates not only in the international arena but also inside 🇷🇺. Elements of military censorship are introduced.

Source

Strelkov has vanished. Apparently gone to Ukraine to serve with a volunteer unit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581186207580819456

 

[RnR_au]

As usual, not many Ukraine sources confirming anything. Overall, Ukraine is much better at not blathering online about their operations.

Yeah quite a number of tweets with #kherson is advocating for 'radio silence' on Ukrainian operations.

 

[Brovane]

Are they Geo Stational?

No

 

[zinfamous]

I don’t care if you don’t have time to research basic facts of the solar industry in the USA. I lived it, and the narrative I presented is very easy to find online.

For example, the Obama / Biden tariffs were found to be illegal by WTO:

WTO Rules US Solar Panel Anti-Dumping Tariffs Illegal

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has ruled the U.S. violated international trade agreements in 2012 by imposing anti-dumping tariffs and countervailing measures against imports of Chinese-made solar materials.

www.energymatters.com.au

Tariff imposed by Trump found to be legal:

WTO Panel Rejects China’s Solar Safeguard Challenge

WASHINGTON – A WTO dispute settlement panel today issued a public report rejecting China’s challenges to the U.S. safeguard tariffs on solar products in the dispute United States – Safeguard Measure on Imports of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products (DS562). This is the first successful...

ustr.gov

Solar Industry Paralyzed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/07/auxin-solar-projects-frozen/

Effects on the USA solar industry - including polysilicon production:

A decade into tariffs, US solar manufacturing is still deep in Asia's shadow

Washington has been unwilling to provide targeted incentives for solar manufacturing, relying instead on import tariffs that have raised panel prices while leaving the country dependent on factories in Southeast Asia.

www.spglobal.com

Specific discussion of the effect on the polysilicon industry:

Struggling US Polysilicon Producers Are a Forgotten Casualty in the Solar Trade War With China

www.greentechmedia.com

Final rules on pause in tariffs just passed - note, this action is in the courts as well and still is a huge risk.

US Pauses Circumvention Duties on Solar Panel Imports With Anti-Stockpiling Conditions - Mercom India

The United States has paused the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duty on imported solar cells and modules, which have been undergoing circumvention proceedings for two years. The U.S....

mercomindia.com

These were trivial to find and fully support my position.

The IRA gets a B+ for me. For the most part it just extends the existing investment tax credits. Well done political work to get it passed. It does 2 things for usa manufacturing - provides long term stability to the USA industry and incentives for USA production. Took too long to pass and is crippled by other actions like the above, but overall ok.

I fully support the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine other than wishing they provided support faster and with more of the weapons requested, but they have been very steady in their aid. I don’t think they thought through air defenses fully, but the systems needed are in much shorter supply.

As for being an orc, I only play humans and half-elves in my decades of choices to do so. Although I mainly run games but that involves presenting orcs for the heroes to defeat.

So, how hard was it to actually do the work this time and post support for your claims?

 

[KMFJD]

Some news on the factional war inside the Kremlin;
Source

Strelkov has vanished. Apparently gone to Ukraine to serve with a volunteer unit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581186207580819456

Yeah it seems they've had enough , orders came from high up

~Just nine Russian military correspondents and military correspondent projects are at risk of being criminalized for discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. These are: Igor Strelkov, Semyon Pegov (WarGonzo), Yuri Podolyaka, Vladlen Tatarsky, Sergey Mardan, Igor Dimitriev, GreyZone authors, Rybar and, suddenly, Kristina Potupchik. Content in their TG channels is already being analyzed for fakes, discrediting, and other prohibited and punishable content.

According to our information, the application to Roskomnadzor with the requirement to check the creativity of the above authors was signed personally by the chief of the General Staff.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580930099947659264

Looks like they are running out of things that go boom very quickly