Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Brovane]

A veritable stockpile of rare minerals, and Europe's bread basket.
Physical reach into Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland.
Most of whom will welcome a master's return and forge military bond on Poland's flank.

Ukraine is EVERYTHING to Europe's future holding Russia at a distance and seeing their lives kept out of future conflict.
Feed the hungering beast of imperialism and give spark to an inferno sweeping further nations that stand divided or alone.

This war is already a test for how we would respond.
Without the United States, with parts of Europe divided. The Eastern Bloc would out produce the fragmented remains.
For NATO to exist, Russia must be defeated here and now. Militarily.

When I look over the former Eastern Block countries with the notable exception of Hungary. They do not welcome the masters return.
These countries know exactly what it is like to live under Russian rule and they do not want a repeat.
Russia cannot even handle Ukraine without it turning into a cluster fuck. How do you think they would handle the Polish army?

 

[Jaskalas]

When I look over the former Eastern Block countries with the notable exception of Hungary. They do not welcome the masters return.

Fico calls on EU to adapt to new world order amid Trump-Putin talks.
Until Slovakia cuts off the head of the snake, they are compromised. Granting Russia direct military access behind Polish defense lines.
Poland would have to kill Slovakia and Hungary both before the Russian meat waves arrived. And that is only possible while Ukraine yet lives. After that, the window of opportunity to shore up their southern flank is closed. They won't do it. They will remain highly exposed and vulnerable when the day comes.

Russia cannot even handle Ukraine without it turning into a cluster fuck. How do you think they would handle the Polish army?

Population of Poland, 36 million.
Smaller than Ukraine was.

With no US support. With the remains of Ukraine bolstering Russia. As China mass reconstructs the ruins of Ukraine to serve Russia's war time economy. Full tilt into mass production. Throw in some 5 million Ukrainian slaves to act as fresh meat.

Meanwhile, Europe would be suffering another 10-20 million refugees with the fall of Ukraine. Giving rise to far right factions who already seek favor with Russia. Allow them to exist and corrupt public discourse, political will and systems of government. A Russian poison to paralyze Democracies into inaction. Much as they do nothing today. Abandoning the next Russian victim will continue to be the official policy of those bought and paid for by Russia.

No, I don't think it would be Poland next. The argument of non interference is MUCH stronger for Moldova and the Baltic states. Securing Kaliningrad would be a necessary act prior to attacking the heart of Europe. Russia will have years to rebuild and rearm prior to taking on Poland. For that would be the endgame, a point of no return where only the nuclear borders of France and UK are "safe".

Now imagine how safe Europe is if energy supplies must come through Russia, Turkey, or the United States.
With MAGA's betrayal "we" will have Europe surrounded by foes. Foes who control their life blood in so many various ways. Could have the European continent begging for energy. And unlike us, the Eastern Bloc will not hestitate to blockade your ports and your shipping lanes. Look to the Red Sea if you need a proper demonstration. That is child's play compared to a conserted effort.

Do not expect to maintain trade outside Europe.
You underestimate the damage the United States can cause if playing useful pawn.

 

[biostud]

If you want to see European alternatives to US military equipment here are some examples.

Video 1 artillery, fighter jets and MBT

Video 2 IFV and rocketry

Video 3 focus on drones
https://youtu.be/kd_Ic7ugj-s?si=DthqOYqTjFRMimcV

 

[misuspita]

The issue is that US don't want NATO anymore... so yeah... is US and Russia (and allies) vs the rest of the world....

Just wait for a China-Russia vs US conflict and see how much the Trump clique screams for NATO to help. It might get a chill response from Europe after the show they put in Munich.

 

[DZero]

Just wait for a China-Russia vs US conflict and see how much the Trump clique screams for NATO to help. It might get a chill response from Europe after the show they put in Munich.

Imagine the twist: China vs Russia AND US.
Why?
US needs Russia for cheap fuel and food
Russia needs tech and money. Also wants to not depend on China.

 

[misuspita]

Russia doesn't need US for fuel nor food. They have both or could import from Ukraine which has an extensive farming economy. Also they are neighbors with China, it's natural that they are both exporting and importing most with a neighbor. Check Canada Mexico and USA. China is a bit different, being America's favourite factory, but that is slowly changing

Also US doesn't need Russia for food nor fuel, us is currently a net exporter of oil and gas. Also food.

 

[K1052]

The US imports a bit of Russian LNG into the northeast due to the Jones Act stupidity and a small amount of uranium for cvil nuclear power (most of it comes from Canada and Kazakhstan). It's just not much at all.

 

[DZero]

Russia doesn't need US for fuel nor food. They have both or could import from Ukraine which has an extensive farming economy. Also they are neighbors with China, it's natural that they are both exporting and importing most with a neighbor. Check Canada Mexico and USA. China is a bit different, being America's favourite factory, but that is slowly changing

Also US doesn't need Russia for food nor fuel, us is currently a net exporter of oil and gas. Also food.

The issue is that US has the inflation and their production is not enough, that is why US needs Russia for cheap fuel and food. Argentina is still recovering and even that won't be enough too.

Meanwhile Russia DOES need US not only to lift the sanctions, but also to get more tech to make weapons great again for them.

Also, there is the fact that the current US leader hates China and Russia does not fully trust China

 

[Brainonska511]

The US imports a bit of Russian LNG into the northeast due to the Jones Act stupidity and a small amount of uranium for cvil nuclear power (most of it comes from Canada and Kazakhstan). It's just not much at all.

Not just Jones Act stupidity. Few or no pipelines really carrying natural gas east of the Hudson, thus requiring ship delivery to fuel New England homes through the winter.

All the more reason for people to switch to heat pumps. Modern ones can basically handle every cold day in New England (especially if you bother to insulate your home), and you can have electric resistive heating as an emergency backup for the 1-2 days/year that it may be needed.

 

[K1052]

Not just Jones Act stupidity. Few or no pipelines really carrying natural gas east of the Hudson, thus requiring ship delivery to fuel New England homes through the winter.

Yes, this is a factor. Opposition from the northeastern states has prevented this capacity from being built. Maine also said no to expanding electricity import capacity from Canada that was going to be built in the existing ROWs. There is a brand of old school environmentalism that is really just obstructionist NIMBYism now.

 

[K1052]

Trump wanted Ukraine to turn over 50% of their mineral resources in exchange for.....nothing.

Ukraine rejects Trump bid to take rights to half its mineral reserves

During his visit to the presidential office in Kyiv this week Bessent brought a document that Trump wanted Zelenskyy to sign before Bessent returned to Washington, according to five people familiar with the matter.
Speaking to reporters before he and Zelenskyy discussed the deal privately for roughly an hour, Bessent described it as an “economic agreement” with Kyiv to “further intertwine our economies”.
The Trump administration would “stand to the end [with Kyiv] by increasing our economic commitment” which would “provide a long-term security shield for all Ukrainians” once Russia’s war is over, Bessent said.
“When we looked at the details there was nothing there [about future US security guarantees],” another Ukrainian official told the FT.

Not exactly a surprise that Zelensky very politely told them to get lost. Trump doesn't have a ton of leverage here since he's going to need Euro cooperation and is trying to cut them out of negotiations. The Chinese are also saying that the Euros need to be included since they want to make diplomatic and economic inroads with the bloc which they value way above their Russian relationship. If Zelensky really wants to stir the pot he could open negotiations with them too.

 

[K1052]

Macron is convening an emergency EU head of state summit in Paris tomorrow.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Macron is convening an emergency EU head of state summit in Paris tomorrow.

Due to Trump?

 

[K1052]

Due to Trump?

Yes.

 

[Paratus]

Yes.

So when do we think Europe cuts off travel from the US?

 

[misuspita]

Why so serious? When that will happen, shit has already hit the fan. For now it's just the first reaction, shock.

 

[K1052]

So when do we think Europe cuts off travel from the US?

Maybe later this year when trade war ramps up.

 

[Jaskalas]

So when do we think Europe cuts off travel from the US?

When we take up Russia's position and blackmail Europe for energy.
Where are they going to get it from?

 

[you2]

Trump is depressing. Maybe he will have a fatal heart attack this evening ?

 

[Brovane]

Macron is convening an emergency EU head of state summit in Paris tomorrow.

Probably certain other European countries like Poland are probably doing quiet studies looking at what it would take to build nuclear weapons if the US Nuclear umbrella can no longer be depended on.

 

[Muse]

Trump is depressing. Maybe he will have a fatal heart attack this evening ?

Only thing that bothers me about this is trying to imagine 4 years of JD as president. Probably less damaging than Trump but likely quite destructive anyway.

 

[Muse]

Probably certain other European countries like Poland are probably doing quiet studies looking at what it would take to build nuclear weapons if the US Nuclear umbrella can no longer be depended on.

And strengthening alliances with nuclear weapon holding nations.

 

[Oric]

Fico calls on EU to adapt to new world order amid Trump-Putin talks.


Now imagine how safe Europe is if energy supplies must come through Russia, Turkey, or the United States.
With MAGA's betrayal "we" will have Europe surrounded by foes. Foes who control their life blood in so many various ways. Could have the European continent begging for energy. And unlike us, the Eastern Bloc will not hestitate to blockade your ports and your shipping lanes. Look to the Red Sea if you need a proper demonstration. That is child's play compared to a conserted effort.

Do not expect to maintain trade outside Europe.
You underestimate the damage the United States can cause if playing useful pawn.

Europe shot themselves in the foot by not accepting Turkey into the EU in the early 2000s. (It was going on route and politics decisions prevented it to conclude) The Union would not have the military power, energy access and refugee problems. Germany and France did not want an equal dominant country in the Union, and here they are ..

Turkey would be a different country as well. Would be much more democratic and not a one man show.

 

[misuspita]

Nope. Turkey, because of its religion will always be in danger of a Erdogan. Especially now, him being at the voting table, would have been dangerous. The bad part of EU is the Western part of it thinking the east thinks the same. Or Russia. Or China.

 

[K1052]

Trump wanted Ukraine to turn over 50% of their mineral resources in exchange for.....nothing.

Ukraine rejects Trump bid to take rights to half its mineral reserves



Not exactly a surprise that Zelensky very politely told them to get lost. Trump doesn't have a ton of leverage here since he's going to need Euro cooperation and is trying to cut them out of negotiations. The Chinese are also saying that the Euros need to be included since they want to make diplomatic and economic inroads with the bloc which they value way above their Russian relationship. If Zelensky really wants to stir the pot he could open negotiations with them too.

Hehe