Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[hal2kilo]

They are either cowards or being physically threatened, and acting cowardly as a result. Or they secretly like this stuff and are too cowardly to vigorously push for it... No matter what, it isn't a good look.

They could always change the rules and make their votes secret if they were so inclined...

His brownshirts scare alot of people apparently. Been swatted laterly?

 

[K1052]

Blokes in sheds at it again for Ukraine's air defense.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lhysgyrnrc22

 

[K1052]

Apparently the plan is for Putin and Trump to likely meet in Saudi Arabia instead of either of their respective capitals. Despite Putin's invitation.

A lot of people are freaking out but this seems kinda what the beginning of negotiations was going to look like under him. Comments today indicate that he thinks he basically has a line of credit outstanding on Ukraine via aid and as a result is invested in its continuance as a going concern (minerals). On the issue of lands he said that Ukraine won't get all its land back probably but that is the whole reason Zelensky invaded Kursk in the first place because he knows that also. I suspect he's after a trade for the ZNPP. Trump is going to be somewhat constrained in how much he can make them give up because the Euros still back Ukraine and Zelensky. Since the sanctions that Putin really needs lifted mostly originate there they have some leverage. Europe also holds like 95% of seized Russian assets.

What does a deal probably look like?

Land swap Kursk back for a same sized area in Zapo that contains the ZNPP
Conflict line frozen without formal recognition of seized lands by Ukraine.
European force commitment inside Ukrainian territory.
EU membership but not NATO membership.
Large arms contracts for US firms to rearm Ukraine.
Mineral development rights for US in applicable areas.
Tariffs on Russian energy exports to support reconstruction.

 

[RnR_au]

Not sure whether its wishful thinking... but my spider sense is tinkling. A couple of points;

• Budanov is on record in saying that Crimea is easy to retake. The Donbass will be much harder.
• Economically and militarily, Russia is on the ropes.
• Ukraine are just beginning to dig into their 18-24 age group
• Ukraine drone production is on point atm... 200k/mth
• Europe are still very strongly supporting Ukraine, now and into the future.
• Innovative weapons systems are getting deployed - new Ukrainian missiles coming, new missile defenses.
• F16's and Mirage's will be a decent force multiplier once Ukraine begins to use them more aggressively.

So why would Ukraine accept such a deal? No NATO. Huge loss of lands?

They won't ofcause, but Russia is hysterically happy atm - see their currency - lolz. Its a false dawn moment imho. Ukraine will play along since it matches their current policy of boiling the Russian frog slowly.

Ukraine will win by not losing.

 

[K1052]

Not sure whether its wishful thinking... but my spider sense is tinkling. A couple of points;

• Budanov is on record in saying that Crimea is easy to retake. The Donbass will be much harder.
• Economically and militarily, Russia is on the ropes.
• Ukraine are just beginning to dig into their 18-24 age group
• Ukraine drone production is on point atm... 200k/mth
• Europe are still very strongly supporting Ukraine, now and into the future.
• Innovative weapons systems are getting deployed - new Ukrainian missiles coming, new missile defenses.
• F16's and Mirage's will be a decent force multiplier once Ukraine begins to use them more aggressively.

So why would Ukraine accept such a deal? No NATO. Huge loss of lands.

They won't ofcause, but Russia is hysterically happy atm - see their currency - lolz. Its a false dawn moment imho. Ukraine will play along since it matches their current policy of boiling the Russian frog slowly.

Ukraine will win by not losing.

With Germany and other nations blocking NATO membership in addition to the US it's more a negotiating ploy for Ukraine to get Euro militaries deployed to their territory. He's also likely playing for time as further US weapons shipments continue to arrive in Ukraine, arranged by Biden. As the drawdown becomes complete with no new military aid forthcoming from America the US basically loses all leverage to compel Ukraine to deal.

Get the war stopped without territorial recognition, become an EU member, rearm as quickly as possible, and maybe build the bomb seems like the realistic path. Promise Trump whatever in terms of minerals to get access to the munitions Biden would not sell them, not like they'll have to make good.

 

[kage69]

I don't think Trump understands or cares about the 'Nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine' concept. The desire to promote and shield Putin from the consequences of his actions still seems pretty important to him. I hope Zelenskyy tells the American arms industry he'd love to provide all the rare earths America wants, contingent on there being no occupation of Ukraine. Trump the moron expecting Ukraine to make a deal with a guy who doesn't honor agreements and who is trying to exterminate them. The notion would be hilarious if it weren't for all the war crimes and crimes against humanity involved.

Ukraine is going to have to be very wary of us for awhile. Watch out Zelenskyy, I fear your life is now more in danger than ever before. I kind of hope you end up telling Trump and Hegseth 'It's a shame you guys aren't going to do the right thing for Europe and America both. Thanks, but we'll take it from here. EU will want the rare earth materials, and seeing as how they understand what we are dealing with, that's the crowd we'd like to make deals with from now on. Tell Elon I said hi.'

Maybe when Trump is out of the picture we can jump back in, if it's still going. EU needs to unleash that cash, post haste. If Trump decides he wants to out do Biden and try to be Ukraine's hero, on the cheap, fine with me.

 

[RnR_au]

A nice reply to Trump from the Europeans...

 

[UNCjigga]

I’ve never heard of “Weimar+”…wtf is this shit? Putting out a statement gif is great, but what would really be nice is announcing a big fat arms and aid package without waiting on the US to lead.

 

[RnR_au]

I’ve never heard of “Weimar+”…wtf is this shit?

I believe its an extension of this group - https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/europe/cooperation-in-europe/228752-228752

Putting out a statement gif is great, but what would really be nice is announcing a big fat arms and aid package without waiting on the US to lead.

They are still finding their way. Takes a while to get new things going after ~80 years of USA leadership.

But they'll get there.

 

[feralkid]

I don't think Trump understands or cares about the 'Nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine' concept. The desire to promote and shield Putin from the consequences of his actions still seems pretty important to him. I hope Zelenskyy tells the American arms industry he'd love to provide all the rare earths America wants, contingent on there being no occupation of Ukraine. Trump the moron expecting Ukraine to make a deal with a guy who doesn't honor agreements and who is trying to exterminate them. The notion would be hilarious if it weren't for all the war crimes and crimes against humanity involved.

Ukraine is going to have to be very wary of us for awhile. Watch out Zelenskyy, I fear your life is now more in danger than ever before. I kind of hope you end up telling Trump and Hegseth 'It's a shame you guys aren't going to do the right thing for Europe and America both. Thanks, but we'll take it from here. EU will want the rare earth materials, and seeing as how they understand what we are dealing with, that's the crowd we'd like to make deals with from now on. Tell Elon I said hi.'

Maybe when Trump is out of the picture we can jump back in, if it's still going. EU needs to unleash that cash, post haste. If Trump decides he wants to out do Biden and try to be Ukraine's hero, on the cheap, fine with me.

Sound like some kind of recipe for hope.

 

[RnR_au]

Blokes in sheds at it again for Ukraine's air defense.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lhysgyrnrc22

I have a feeling that this is what took out the Russian KAB a few days ago. If the Ukrainians can spot KAB's 20 km's out and neutralise them, the Russian assault teams will have a much much harder job.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I am holding the fuck out of my breath here. I was wondering when the Russian shoe was going to drop with Trump.

Sounds like he's doing his usual MO, bilateral negotiations in a three way conflict.

 

[kage69]

"Russia fought for that land, they should get to keep it." - Cadet Bonespurs about Russia's genocidal invasion in the Donbas


Die in a fire you fucking traitor. I'm sure Putin is ecstatic, though he's still missing a real military.


He's going to look pretty stupid trying to act in charge while AFU and EU drone the last of the Russian military into oblivion, proceed with their own thing. Good!

 

[Panino Manino]

Like predicted years ago, the time for the latest murrica proxy to join the team is near here. Bless him for the good job.

 

[K1052]

Doesn't sound like Zelensky will end the war unless Ukraine is a party to the agreement.

Trump's leverage is kinda low right now. He can promise Putin whatever but delivering is another story.

 

[Brainonska511]

Our allies are all busy making contingency plans because NATO is functionally dead with Trump at the helm, and even after. The long term damage to US interests is innumerable.

 

[K1052]

Our allies are all busy making contingency plans because NATO is functionally dead with Trump at the helm, and even after. The long term damage to US interests is innumerable.

If I am the Euros I'd be drawing up plans to move into Western Ukraine right about now and use their air power to seal the airspace. The Russians will scream their heads off but do nothing because they are in no shape whatsoever to take on the EU right now. The AFU is the best (and cheapest) bulwark against further Russian aggression on the continent.

 

[Brainonska511]

If I am the Euros I'd be drawing up plans to move into Western Ukraine right about now and use their air power to seal the airspace. The Russians will scream their heads off but do nothing because they are in no shape whatsoever to take on the EU right now. The AFU is the best (and cheapest) bulwark against further Russian aggression on the continent.

Glad to see all the internet weirdos are going to get the multipolar world they were raving for. Careful what you wish for.

 

[Jaskalas]

The Russians will scream their heads off but do nothing because they are in no shape whatsoever to take on the EU right now.

About that...
Ukraine is currently stronger than the rest of Europe... COMBINED.

The head of the Ukrainian state noted that Russia currently has around 220 combat brigades. In comparison, Ukraine has 110 combat brigades, while Europe has 80.​

If Russia defeats Ukraine, and maintains a full military economy supported by the Eastern Bloc, they will sweep further countries away like cobwebs.
USA betrays NATO, pulls Turkey aside. Former Soviet slaves Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia split the continent, and what remains to stop Putin are ONLY the UK and France's nuclear weapons.

 

[Brainonska511]

About that...
Ukraine is currently stronger than the rest of Europe... COMBINED.

The head of the Ukrainian state noted that Russia currently has around 220 combat brigades. In comparison, Ukraine has 110 combat brigades, while Europe has 80.​

If Russia defeats Ukraine, and maintains a full military economy supported by the Eastern Bloc, they will sweep further countries away like cobwebs.
USA betrays NATO, pulls Turkey aside. Former Soviet slaves Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia split the continent, and what remains to stop Putin are ONLY the UK and France's nuclear weapons.

I don't think you need to look at combat brigades alone. Logistics and technology will bolster fighting capabilities, and Russia isn't exactly known for logistics. Just look at the trouble they've had just fighting their neighbor.

 

[K1052]

About that...
Ukraine is currently stronger than the rest of Europe... COMBINED.

The head of the Ukrainian state noted that Russia currently has around 220 combat brigades. In comparison, Ukraine has 110 combat brigades, while Europe has 80.​

If Russia defeats Ukraine, and maintains a full military economy supported by the Eastern Bloc, they will sweep further countries away like cobwebs.
USA betrays NATO, pulls Turkey aside. Former Soviet slaves Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia split the continent, and what remains to stop Putin are ONLY the UK and France's nuclear weapons.

Brigades are not a good measure of military power because they are not at full strength, some far below. That said the AFU is the certainly most powerful ground combat entity on the continent that doesn't belong to Moscow.

 

[K1052]

I don't think you need to look at combat brigades alone. Logistics and technology will bolster fighting capabilities, and Russia isn't exactly known for logistics. Just look at the trouble they've had just fighting their neighbor.

Epidemic levels of corruption and lying has led to a Russian Army that is a fraction of its power on paper.

 

[Jaskalas]

I don't think you need to look at combat brigades alone. Logistics and technology will bolster fighting capabilities, and Russia isn't exactly known for logistics. Just look at the trouble they've had just fighting their neighbor.

Their neighbor backed by all of US + Europe supplies. Which will no longer be united and delivered.
If Ukraine is not secured, the world will change. The shield will be broken, the door blown wide open. MAGA will usher in the death of Europe by assisting the Eastern Bloc in various ways.

 

[fskimospy]

Brigades are not a good measure of military power because they are not at full strength, some far below. That said the AFU is the certainly most powerful ground combat entity on the continent that doesn't belong to Moscow.

Not just that but all brigades are not created equal. For example the US has far fewer brigades than either one of those but do we really question who would win in a stand up fight?

 

[Jaskalas]

Not just that but all brigades are not created equal. For example the US has far fewer brigades than either one of those but do we really question who would win in a stand up fight?

Our trillion dollar defense budget is sitting this one out.