Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[RnR_au]

Its all over. Syria has fallen to the rebels after 11 days.

Syrian army command has informed its officers that the Assad regime has been overthrown.

And for extra credit, the Kremlin is grumpy...

Kevin Rothrock (@kevinrothrock.me)

You know it's good when Russia Today editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan is upset: "Militants in Damascus. The TV center has been seized. Criminals have been released from prison. The airport is not operational. What a gloomy morning."

bsky.app

Not a bad day for the rest of the world.

Edit: a thread has been started on Syria - https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/syria-the-new-era.2624042

 

[Jaskalas]

We need to escort Russia out of the Mediterranean.
And if they bomb Syria again, we need to kill Russians in the Mediterranean.

 

[K1052]

We need to escort Russia out of the Mediterranean.
And if they bomb Syria again, we need to kill Russians in the Mediterranean.

Without access to a base and unable to return to the Black Sea they'll pretty much have to sail everything to Murmansk. Unless they can find a country, on incredibly short notice, that agrees to host them (unlikely).

Syria was also a vital stepping stone for Russian activities in Africa. They will have a lot of trouble keeping those up now.

 

[Jaskalas]

Ukraine provides the numbers of dead and wounded for both sides.
They claim, essentially a 5 to 1 kill ratio favoring Ukraine.

Wounded is much more balanced though. Less than 2 to 1. Suggesting that, other factors aside, Ukraine could lose a war of attrition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865719582951919625

 

[K1052]

The options for resisting an invasion by a country with way more population like Russia are 1) have so much fucking firepower you make all invaders quickly die (see: Poland) or 2) defense in depth with a motivated population that is fully prepared for total war of long duration (see: Finland).

 

[you2]

Ukraine provides the numbers of dead and wounded for both sides.
They claim, essentially a 5 to 1 kill ratio favoring Ukraine.

Wounded is much more balanced though. Less than 2 to 1. Suggesting that, other factors aside, Ukraine could lose a war of attrition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865719582951919625

I suspect more of Ukraine wounded live or return to service than Russian. Having said that I doubt Ukraine can hang on another 18 months. The real question is will Russia fold before then - can they sustain these type of losses before there is open rebellion. Also take into account that Ukraine is fighting one war and Russia at least pretends to have world wide military presence though we are seeing - as in Syria that has been hollowed out.

However this exposes to the world is just how poor Russian weapons and technique are relative to their propaganda. Don't get me wrong a bomb can still cause havok and kill but imagine for example America suffering 200K killed in a war of 2 years. Heck Americans (at least politically) raise a fuss if 20 servicemen die.

Of course if Republicans get their way there will be a civil war and i suppose several million could die in such a war.

 

[kage69]

Zelenskyy just announced the second batch of Dutch F-16s has arrived in Ukraine.

"This is an example of leadership in defending lives that sets Denmark apart. The aircraft from the first batch, provided by the Danish people, are already intercepting Russian missiles, saving our people's lives and our infrastructure. Now, our air shield has been further strengthened. If all partners were as determined, Russian terror could already have been made impossible," the president wrote and thanked the leadership of Denmark and the Danish nation for aid provided.

Throwin some shade at US and Germany, well deserved though.

Still, more good news for Ukraine and more bad news for Putin, on top of another round of funding and sanctions from Biden too. Exxxcellent....

Idk Putin, have you considered having more people tossed out of high rise windows? Clearly you are surrounded by incompetence and scheming, no? This was supposed to be over in 2 weeks *cough*

 

[kage69]

Nearly a billion in gear and ammo on the way, and money well spent.

Sorry magats, your regurgitated 'what about us' routine doesn't work, not when your leaders are the ones obstructing those funds. Not that I care much about what treason and insurrection supporters think. STFU and be happy red states are getting plenty of work while supporting liberty and freedom (remember those?)

Going to miss you Lloyd, what with you being an incredibly qualified and experienced leader who wasn't out to cut veteran's health benefits. It's an insult to the armed forces and our allies that Trump wants unfit sycophants in your place. Real pity so many of our Senators can't be relied upon to do their jobs.

 

[kage69]

More good news for Zelenskyy, SpaceX lands contract to give Ukraine more Starshield terminals, expand access to earlier hardware



"SPACEX received a Pentagon contract to expand Ukraine’s access to a more secure, militarized version of its Starlink satellite network, deepening the company’s involvement in the conflict despite founder Elon Musk’s ambivalence over the war.

"The contract means that 2,500 Starlink terminals already in Ukraine will get access to Starshield, a classified and encrypted signal over Starlink that’s more difficult to hack into or jam. That number is in addition to the 500 that were previously connected to Starshield.

“A total of 3,000 terminals are provided service via the two contracts,” according to a statement to Bloomberg News from the Space Systems Command’s Commercial Satellite Office. The contracts share a common purpose “to facilitate Internet connectivity in Ukraine”, it said. “Both provide service into 2025.”



Heavily encrypted and designed to be a bitch to hack or jam, more Starshield should prove extremely useful. Hope Elonia doesn't force a 180 somehow after dipshit takes over.

 

[kage69]

Bye Felecia, hope you enjoyed that Turkish Delight

 

[Kaido]

More good news for Zelenskyy, SpaceX lands contract to give Ukraine more Starshield terminals, expand access to earlier hardware



"SPACEX received a Pentagon contract to expand Ukraine’s access to a more secure, militarized version of its Starlink satellite network, deepening the company’s involvement in the conflict despite founder Elon Musk’s ambivalence over the war.

"The contract means that 2,500 Starlink terminals already in Ukraine will get access to Starshield, a classified and encrypted signal over Starlink that’s more difficult to hack into or jam. That number is in addition to the 500 that were previously connected to Starshield.

“A total of 3,000 terminals are provided service via the two contracts,” according to a statement to Bloomberg News from the Space Systems Command’s Commercial Satellite Office. The contracts share a common purpose “to facilitate Internet connectivity in Ukraine”, it said. “Both provide service into 2025.”



Heavily encrypted and designed to be a bitch to hack or jam, more Starshield should prove extremely useful. Hope Elonia doesn't force a 180 somehow after dipshit takes over.

Zooming out, it feels like we're living in the future...deploying encrypted data-communication satellites to help an underdog defend themselves fight Goliath!

 

[RnR_au]

Tell me that the Russian economy is fucked without telling me the economy is fucked...

 

[you2]

Tell me that the Russian economy is fucked without telling me the economy is fucked...

View attachment 112927

Wow! I thought something like that could only happen in America

Of course that is the difference between Enron a company and Russia a country....
(and by the way GE did the same thing; we can see where they ended up today)

 

[IronWing]

Tell me that the Russian economy is fucked without telling me the economy is fucked...

View attachment 112927

Someone at the bank still retains at least a small hope for the future. Otherwise, they would have simply printed more money. The Ukrainians need to smash that spark of hope.

 

[K1052]

This distortions in the Russian economy are real bad and lately getting even worse. Shit is also going to really hit the fan when the government stops spending on the war and they crash headlong into a recession.

 

[kage69]

Mobiki are being told to play dead or freeze when the drones show up, hope they pass you by. Can't supply guys shotgun attachments for rifles, or even just shotguns?

This ain't Jurassic Park Yuri

That guy saw his buddy's head fly off. Yikes. Just surrender assholes!

 

[K1052]

US has disbursed to the world bank its $20B end of the loan for Ukraine underwritten by frozen Russian assets. They are due another $30B from the remaining G7 soon under the same mechanism.

 

[Perknose]

US has disbursed to the world bank its $20B end of the loan for Ukraine underwritten by frozen Russian assets. They are due another $30B from the remaining G7 soon under the same mechanism.


View attachment 112991

So . . . just the interest, now and in the future, on the 300 billion. Big powers always make up the rules. Let's get our partners to decide to give UK the whole tranch. Then Trump & Company can fuck right off.

 

[K1052]

So . . . just the interest, now and in the future, on the 300 billion. Big powers always make up the rules. Let's get our partners to decide to give UK the whole tranch. Then Trump & Company can fuck right off.

Probably helpful for negotiations to keep the principal intact. Russian compensation for the war is going to be tricky enough already.

 

[kage69]

Ukraine's swanky new Peklo attack drone had it's first combat use, looks like a success. AFU says 6 out of 10 struck a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk. 🤞

 

[dainthomas]

Probably helpful for negotiations to keep the principal intact. Russian compensation for the war is going to be tricky enough already.

And just the interest is probably double digit billions per year, so pretty significant.

 

[kage69]

Well, I guess it's better than pretending it doesn't see you, or accepting RuMoD ain't giving you shit. Beats throwing your helmet or rifle at it. Still pretty ghetto though, and that's a rifled barrel too. I'm guessing the pellets all over the place after 20ft or so. All that plastic residue too, haha, yes every orc should be doing this

"Shotguns are the weapon of choice against drones, but the dark truth is mostly doesn’t work. Even with widespread use, it is difficult to hit a fast-moving target such as a drone. The problem is that many companies have taken it up. a wider spread may lower the inbound drone."

Issuing scatterguns alone doesn't really change much, the users have to be actually trained in how to use them. If you have never shot skeet or clay for any meaningful amount of time and find yourself facing Mavics? Yeah you're probably fucked. Someone who knows what they're doing, with the right ammo, and has time to get off shots? It can work.

If I had my druthers every AFU platoon level 'ghostbuster' would have a duck hunter with semi auto 12 bore as his personal perimeter safety detail. Hell give him a shotgun too.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Well, I guess it's better than pretending it doesn't see you, or accepting RuMoD ain't giving you shit. Beats throwing your helmet or rifle at it. Still pretty ghetto though, and that's a rifled barrel too. I'm guessing the pellets all over the place after 20ft or so. All that plastic residue too, haha, yes every orc should be doing this

"Shotguns are the weapon of choice against drones, but the dark truth is mostly doesn’t work. Even with widespread use, it is difficult to hit a fast-moving target such as a drone. The problem is that many companies have taken it up. a wider spread may lower the inbound drone."

Issuing scatterguns alone doesn't really change much, the users have to be actually trained in how to use them. If you have never shot skeet or clay for any meaningful amount of time and find yourself facing Mavics? Yeah you're probably fucked. Someone who knows what they're doing, with the right ammo, and has time to get off shots? It can work.

If I had my druthers every AFU platoon level 'ghostbuster' would have a duck hunter with semi auto 12 bore as his personal perimeter safety detail. Hell give him a shotgun too.

Yeah, the vids I've seen give the target about 4 seconds between reasonable range and pink mist, even with a trained shotgun wielder, how many times are you gonna pop your target before you get got? I'd almost rather have a crew of 5+ with ak's just spray and praying. At least one is likely to see it at appropriate range to get more eyes on target.

Or, y'know, fucking leave.

 

[kage69]

Yeah, the vids I've seen give the target about 4 seconds between reasonable range and pink mist, even with a trained shotgun wielder, how many times are you gonna pop your target before you get got? I'd almost rather have a crew of 5+ with ak's just spray and praying. At least one is likely to see it at appropriate range to get more eyes on target.

Or, y'know, fucking leave.

FWIW you can empty a Benelli (8 rounds) in under 3 seconds. Less if you're really good. Say it's all #5 or #6 - that's a lot of metal heading out, pretty much all at once. M4s are pretty great.

It's true though, aerial target accuracy is not an easy skill. Reaction speed, distance gauging and learning how to lead are all crucial. I don't think the Russians care much for developing it, certainly not for cannon fodder that spends so much time either high or drunk. What's the point? Let them DIY.

But for the record I'm cool with a crowd of those panicked guys waving around AKs on full auto too, especially if they're all fucked up and/or half frozen. They'll help the drones get the job done.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

FWIW you can empty a Benelli (8 rounds) in under 3 seconds. Less if you're really good. Say it's all #5 or #6 - that's a lot of metal heading out, pretty much all at once. M4s are pretty great.

It's true though, aerial target accuracy is not an easy skill. Reaction speed, distance gauging and learning how to lead are all crucial. I don't think the Russians care much for developing it, certainly not for cannon fodder that spends so much time either high or drunk. What's the point? Let them DIY.

But for the record I'm cool with a crowd of those panicked guys waving around AKs on full auto too, especially if they're all fucked up and/or half frozen. They'll help the drones get the job done.

Do bear in mind, these are ~4wk trained meat sacks that are getting romped by drones. I wouldn't expect any of them to train on a target in 4s, much less empty a tube.