Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Commodus

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,210
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It baffles me to think Putin (and Russian leadership as a whole) thought they could just waltz in, take (or at least level) Ukraine and wind down without lasting repercussions.

There is a good explanation I've found for why Russia has struggled so far, though. In short:

1. Putin and his leadership weren't expecting, and don't know how to fight, a sustained land war. They thought it would be like Chechnya and other regions that couldn't realistically fight back. Russia sent a single echelon of forces and was caught off-guard when Ukraine could starve that echelon of supplies and otherwise trip up those forces.

2. The Russian military is heavily skewed toward naval power, and institutional rot has left that military unwilling to adapt to changing times.

3. Ukraine is better-equipped to defend itself than it was when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Newer hardware, more veterans, more ready-to-serve soldiers.

4. Russian morale is highly dependent on upholding the myth that the country will always win. The more losses Russia takes, the harder the fight becomes, the less eager Russians will be to support the invasion. Like in the US, many Russians join the military in hopes of a better life, not patriotic duty — they might not be keen to participate in a protracted war that could get them injured or killed.

And of course, there's the increasingly effective economic sanctions, political isolation, and domestic unrest. I won't be so naive as to say Putin has dug his own grave, but his hold on Russia isn't as firm as it was a week ago.
 
dank69

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,296
28,497
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HomerJS said:
Russian soldiers last text exchange with his mother before he was killed. It sounds eerily like the lyrics to Bohemian Rhapsody. Putin has fucked over his own military and their families.
“I’m scared. We’re hitting everyone, even civilians” – Russian soldier to his mother before being killed in action (ukrinform.net)
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Another:
https://imgur.com/Tv9HATO
Translation:
Him: Hey, Mom, hello.
Her: Hello, it's you
Him: Hello, Mom, it's me.
Her:
Him: I'm in Ukraine, was captured. Everything is okay with me.
Her: What?
Him: I said I'm in Ukraine, was captured.
Her: What do you mean, you were captured?
Him: Well...
Her: Explain please, what... how...
Him: Mom, listen to me, please. I'm been treated well. Don't worry about me.
Her: What?
Him: I'm been treated well. Don't worry about me. You need to call my platoon, write .
Her: Tell me number of your platoon and what I need to tell them.
Him: Tell them so-and-so was taken prisoner in Ukraine. When they sent us there they told us we'll going to be peacekeepers in LNR and DNR (Lugansk's and Donetsk's "republics"), but it's real war. We are aggressors. bomb cities, hard. Keep in mind you won't be able to talk about.
Her, crying: what, why, why they wouldn't release you?
Him: Mom, because I'm prisoner of war. I came here as an aggressor. They won't release me.
Her, crying: In Ukraine, you say, where exactly, what city?
Him: Mom, don't panic, please just do as I said.

Russian: I'm Petruk Anton Andreevich, born 5 July 2000
Ukrainian: Where do you serve? What Position?
R:
U: How did you get to Ukraine?
R: We were at training on the Kuzmiskiy training ground for about 2 weeks. Then we gather on the border and were told to stay there. Then we crossed the border at night unexpectedly and stopped at some village. There was no choice. If we refused to go to war after we crossed the border, we would have considered traitors to the state. We could have gone to prison for 15-20 years plus extra years for not following military orders, almost all life
U: How Benderites [Ukrainians] treat you?
R: Better than our own
U: Is mom waiting at home?
R: Mom is waiting at home..
U: What do you want to tell mom?
R: Mom, wait for me, I'll come back
Click to expand...
 
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biostud

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,237
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Roger Wilco said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1498308328371281925
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While a worthy case, and probably going to be much more popular now, joining EU is a process that takes years of negotiating and changes in Ukraine before being a possibility. Even if the war ends within this week it will take at least 10 years before Ukraine can join EU. You can't lower the bar for countries who wants to join, and such a large and relatively poor country will both shift power and wealth in EU. If the richest countries does not want to pay more to EU, then the poorest will have to share the same amount, and with UK leaving there were already a lot of fighting about this. So while I understand why Ukraine wants to join EU, and I think it would be a good idea in the long run, it will not do anything right now.
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
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spacejamz said:
12 Russians expelled from UN in New York for espionage...
Click to expand...
It seems to me like the west has been tacitly accepting a whole bunch of bullshit from Russia for years and have decided now's the time to clean house. Like in this case it's unlikely we just uncovered these 12 spies, we probably already knew they were there.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Zorba said:
To be fair, the tanks may have had a better shot in 1980 than in 2020.
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Yeah I think if anything this shows how vulnerable armor has become to modern infantry weapons. Imagine if Ukraine had air superiority like NATO would likely have on top of this, combined with better trained, better supported troops. It would be an unmitigated slaughter.
 
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A

adamsleath

Member
May 4, 2007
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brycejones said:
That poster is dishonest as fuck. He has also stated "might makes right" in regards to Russia and it's actions towards Ukraine while at the same repeating Russian propaganda about NATO. NATO has not offered Ukraine membership. In contrast, Russia has 3 times since 2014 violated Ukraine's borders and directly seized territory or bank rolled/supported groups who did. The people of Ukraine have also twice now staged popular revolts to throw out corrupt leaders.

There is clearly an aggressor here and it isn't NATO and it isn't Ukraine. Any attempt to divert from that is just dishonest fuckery and must be treated as such.
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For actual people there. I'd imagine there is a choice. To fight and die . To deal with the situation peacefully. Or up and leave as a refugee/ migrant.
Escalating the Guerilla war fronts within Ukraine means more casualties.
The propaganda is meaningless when you're dead.
If you're going to be a pawn of militarised actors you better be sure you're going to win. And in such a case many people will die. Honours and medals mean nothing to the dead.
I'm not a fighter. I'd leave the conflict zone or deal peacefully with the aggressors. Just being honest. Without adequate backing you're signing up to be a corpse.

==
the real winners are the arms dealers, manufacturers etc and tinpot politicians making bank while others die in conflicts.
russia also has a military industrial complex. something superpowers have in common. :rolleyes:
 
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kage69

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,209
36,169
136
Roger Wilco said:
Brits

"Hundreds of British volunteers are expected to take up arms to defend Ukraine, with some having already arrived in the country, according to the commander of a foreign legion of fighters."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498398067283873801
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AA weapons are well and good, but the UK really can quit being dicks to Ukrainian refugees any time now.

Pretty much the entire EU is stepping up to the plate, going out of their way to help, and BoJo is like unless you have British relatives, piss off.

He's just a tremendous bag of douche really.
 
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Leymenaide

Leymenaide

Senior member
Feb 16, 2010
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Roger Wilco said:
The will of Ukraine is strong, and they have waged a successful information war galvanizing support, but I wonder what the real condition of their military is.
Click to expand...

They were not unprepared. They use or and, in some cases, made the weapons the Russians are using. My generation grew up with the victims of Russian and German barbarity. Our children, those fighting today grew up with their grandparents' stories. I have hunted mushrooms and hiked in these borderlands, and you are never far from a memorial to those murdered by Stalin or Hitler. These people know what they are fighting for.

The Russians are giving them plenty of new supplies. The people are standing up. This is a war of resistance.

My wife spent the weekend helping a friend of my daughter. Her 16-year-old sister is being sent alone to Poland from Ukraine where my family is trying to collect her and see she gets to her family in Western Europe. Her parents are staying in Ukraine to fight.
 
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kage69

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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fskimospy said:
Yeah I think if anything this shows how vulnerable armor has become to modern infantry weapons. Imagine if Ukraine had air superiority like NATO would likely have on top of this, combined with better trained, better supported troops. It would be an unmitigated slaughter.
Click to expand...


You can still get killed by armor trying to do it though, regardless of what you're holding. It's not so much the change in infantry weapons, top attack and tandem charges have been around awhile. It's really the use of drones. Hard to stop the high alt drones from killing you, that's when you even know where they are. Drones are going to chase armor off the battlefield, eventually they will chase infantry off as well. At some point submarines will become obsolete, they will simply run out of places to hide, with million dollar submersible drones hounding and swarming multi billion dollar boomers.

Drones aren't just game changers, they are turning into history and world changers. This is why I was all for the Marines getting rid of their tanks. We have to stay ahead of the painful learning curves.
 
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