Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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A friend of mine who is quite a student of military history has opened my mind to what Ukraine might be doing.

In WW1 what finally collapsed the German will/ability to fight was a tactic of bite and hold. The allies would attack a section, take some territory, and hold it. Then they’d take another section elsewhere, and just keep making the Germans defend everywhere and expend men and materiel at a rate they couldn’t sustain.

Without dominance in aviation and artillery Ukraine is unable to exploit deep in the way late WW2 allied forces did in Europe. However, Ukraine can bring force to bear where it wants across the front and achieve local superiority.

Also, Russia keeps defending their forward positions, which while they’re reasonably good positions they aren’t nearly as good as their deeper lines. This leads to more casualties.

While Ukraine is fighting with a costly strategy, they have to make the Russians fight to attrit them. This strategy of trying to defend where they’re strong, attack in limited areas where they can establish decent conditions, and continuing to focus on using their limited deep strike to destroy high value targets like SPG’s, radar, air defence, critical bridges, and supply dumps seems to be pretty consistent.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
31,681
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Whatever gets Ukraine back to the 7to1 kill ratios (or better) needs to happen, soon. Water, mines and dug in positions are preventing a return to that math. Russia being fine with losing 3 soldiers to every Ukrainian killed, longterm, is still the big main problem given the population size difference. I think Biden and Pentagon both understand more is needed to reassert the desired tempo of losses for Russia, which is why meaningful amounts of ATACMS missiles and DPICM shells are now likely on the way. More MCLC too I hope! C'mon Joe, the "high operational standard" for export was met sometime ago. Let's go.


Seems to me Ukrainians have to neuter Putin's ability to cause an accident at the nuclear plant before they finish surgically snipping Crimea away from the invaders. The more they get pushed back, the more desperate Putin will get with his "accidents"
 
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Drach

Golden Member
Apr 24, 2022
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Only

Yea as in this case:
(think about the crime - calling a war a war)
This is your country Raildogg
What crime did he commit?
 
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Nov 17, 2019
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Can this accomplish anything meaningful?

International center opens to help hold Russian leadership accountable for aggression in Ukraine

www.msn.com.ico
San Diego Union Tribune|7 hours ago
An international center opened Monday in The Hague to support nations already building cases against senior Russian leaders for the crime of aggression resulting from the country's invasion of ...
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
53,469
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Also, Russia keeps defending their forward positions, which while they’re reasonably good positions they aren’t nearly as good as their deeper lines. This leads to more casualties.

I'm not sure the Russians have a choice but to man those lines since AFU artillery outranges them by a good margin. If the AFU can close range on Tokmak to within safe distance of their 52 caliber guns the Russians will have a fairly large problem on their hands. Also good chunk of the Russians southern supply route along the Sea of Azov would come into GMLRS range.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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Re: Losses and attrition.
Ukraine is trying to cut the land bridge. That would be a worthy goal. Destroying Crimea would gain Ukraine security on its southern flank, help shrink the frontline, and thereby allow a more stable east. They might be willing to ceasefire after that advantage. Especially as it would help open up the Black Sea over time. Kherson would also be free from close ranged attack. That sort of security has got to be the end goal.

Ukraine with Crimea is a much stronger and more secure Ukraine.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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I'm not sure the Russians have a choice but to man those lines since AFU artillery outranges them by a good margin. If the AFU can close range on Tokmak to within safe distance of their 52 caliber guns the Russians will have a fairly large problem on their hands. Also good chunk of the Russians southern supply route along the Sea of Azov would come into GMLRS range.
Maybe, but Gen. Zaluzhny's plea for more shells signals a significant problem with using artillery to dislodge and push back Russian lines. I’m pretty sure the UA would be making more progress if there wasn’t a supply problem - it’s their only way to pickup the pace since they lack the air power to do so.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Hmm... don't know if Russia would have so many reserves.

View attachment 82589

From here.

I hope they group up nice and tight...
Wow! So something like half their forces in occupied territory in that one area?! Hmm, what is the plan here - just bog down the UA to protect the south? The Russians are a bit smarter than they seem (given that they don’t care about attrition).
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Wow! So something like half their forces in occupied territory in that one area?! Hmm, what is the plan here - just bog down the UA to protect the south? The Russians are a bit smarter than they seem (given that they don’t care about attrition).
Yeah quantity has a quality all of its own. They will be unlikely to be highly trained, equipped or in possession of a high morale. In any large scaled, highly clustered mauveuver controlled by poor communications and dumb tactics, I would think the Ukrainians should be able to inflict 10:1 casualty ratio. But I'm a lay person... so :)

I am trying to find another source for this rumour. 'UKR Intel' is not really popping up on my google... but my 'fu could be wonky today.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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This is misstating the situation imo, there’s no way they have that many additional troops.
Yeah... they could be counting the support staff. Not just an iffy troop number, but an iffy 'everything and the kitchen sink' number.

Edit: its possibly a nice rumour for Western media that have been reporting less than 'optimal' progress in the Ukrainian offensive.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,208
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This is misstating the situation imo, there’s no way they have that many additional troops.
There are more Russian fighters in Ukraine today than the initial invasion force.
That was the purpose of mobilization, and it has made a huge difference.
No matter which direction Ukraine attacks, they must kill 10s of thousands to make a difference.

Russia hopes for one of two things. Ukraine to run out of men / supplies. Or for us to give up and betray Ukraine over time.
Putin will send as many Russians over there as it takes.

TL;DR, we need far greater production rates. Yesterday.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Seems the front is moving in the right direction in the North of Bakhmut, but the fog of war is dense;

1688470487524.png

1688470806927.png
 

bononos

Diamond Member
Aug 21, 2011
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Wow! So something like half their forces in occupied territory in that one area?! Hmm, what is the plan here - just bog down the UA to protect the south? The Russians are a bit smarter than they seem (given that they don’t care about attrition).
Maybe Russia has more troops than expected, or their losses were exaggerated, and this would dispel the talk that Russia is too depleted to mount an offense (or maybe it is really a last ditch effort). Russia would thinking to advance on the east after Ukraine comitted to their offensive in the south. It would present Ukraine with a dilemma by having to scale down their southern offensive in order to provide more support in the eastern front. The news 2 days ago said that Russia had attacked and advanced around Avdiivka, Mariinka, Lyman and Svatove.
 
Nov 17, 2019
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A thought.

What's left of Wagner isn't really RU any more and Belarus isn't. If they do the wrong thing there, could Western counter terrorism assets be used?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,208
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
53,469
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Good, now give them DPICM, ATACMS, F16s and Tomahawks.

If we really want to give the Russians some heartburn we could loan them some of the VLS-on-a-truck solutions. I bet they'd enjoy dealing with SM-6s.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Honestly this seems like a not good time to vacation in Crimea let alone road trip through occupied southern Ukraine. Though nobody will accuse the Russian people of being blessed with an overabundance of good sense or even really a normal working desire for self preservation.


Screenshot 2023-07-04 at 8.38.45 AM.png
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
53,469
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I'm not going to post it here but the Russians have finally learned about palletization and used it, badly, for the most Russian thing ever.
 
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