Russia gets Crimea

[werepossum]

I've noticed this with a few of my old friends.

You get old school, hard left, former communist supporters that just can't get their head round the fact that the world has changed.

They either don't want to admit that Russia is now well on its way to being a fascist state or that they are so embittered that the socialist experiment didn't work that they want everything else to fail as well.


Really its time to move on, realise that Russia now is pretty much the opposite of what it wanted to be during the dreams of the USSR and look for other solutions.

I don't think that's quite fair. I don't think that senseamp is saying that Russia is right, just that the price of getting what we think is right will be worse than not getting it. In a perfect world, we go in militarily and throw Russia out of Ukraine. (Although one could make an argument for Crimea remaining Russian.) If we do that, there will be tens if not hundreds of thousands killed and displaced, soldiers and civilians alike.

As far as Russia being pretty much the opposite of what it wanted to be during the dreams of the USSR, I think this is pretty much the same motivation in both time periods - a desire to own as much of the world as possible.

The follow division is the best case scenario, is it not? If we expect further Russian invasion, if they don't take all of Ukraine it might look something like this:

That may indeed be the best case scenario. Problem is, how do we prevent Russia from fucking up the remainder of Ukraine?

The solution is for Ukraine to be a neutral federal state that stays out of military alliances, and in return, for Russia to back off.
Then Ukraine can focus on their economic problems instead of playing geopolitical games one way or another.

Problem with that is that Russia was not backed off prior to Yanukovych being ousted, but meddled and murdered to get its favored puppets in power.

 

[AViking]

More than NATO wants to fight a war over Ukraine. That's all that matters.

No I'm serious. How do you know that they're ready for war?

You seem to be talking out of your ass. Are you just making shit up and trolling?

 

[werepossum]

At this point a country would have to be insane to take NATO expansion off the table. Russia doesn't dare to mess with NATO neighbors and has repeatedly attacked non-NATO members. Short of nukes the primary foreign policy goal of any state neighboring Russia is probably NATO membership at this point.

Bingo.

The point of NATO is to protect weaker countries from Russian aggression. Nothing more.

NATO is zero threat to Russia as long as Russia stops acting like a raging dickscarf.

It is plainly obvious to anyone that doesn't suck on the teat of mother Russia that the only entity responsible for any "threat to Russia," is Russia itself.

Yep, and Russia knows it. NATO can barely get its act together for humanitarian missions; there is zero chance of NATO engaging Russia with a first strike or invasion and everyone knows it. Except maybe the Russian people, subject to a captive press.

 

[theeedude]

And I keep telling you that this is making NATO membership MORE likely. If they are doing this to limit NATO membership they are fools.

In a political sense, yes, but Russia won't let this be decided by Kiev politics.
If Russia goes into Ukraine, than NATO accepting Ukraine would require NATO to start a war with Russia. So it comes down to the same question. Is NATO willing to fight a hot war with Russia, which could turn nuclear, over expanding into Ukraine? NATO should answer this question for itself, before it leads Ukraine into believing that NATO has its back.

 

[AViking]

Well you really need them to join NATO before Russia is really in their borders. Otherwise it's a political mess.

 

[norseamd]

It's cheaper to build a bridge to Crimea from Russia than to invade Ukraine. I thought it was about Crimea too, but now I think it's all about NATO in Ukraine, and they won't stop until it's off the table. Russia is not acting like it cares about provoking the West, it's acting like it's getting ready to invade.

no

was never about crimea

 

[fskimospy]

In a political sense, yes, but Russia won't let this be decided by Kiev politics.
If Russia goes into Ukraine, than NATO accepting Ukraine would require NATO to start a war with Russia. So it comes down to the same question. Is NATO willing to fight a hot war with Russia, which could turn nuclear, over expanding into Ukraine? NATO should answer this question for itself, before it leads Ukraine into believing that NATO has its back.

No, none of this is accurate. Russia would likely invade a portion of Ukraine and do something with that, and the remainder of Ukraine will join NATO.

Regardless, Ukrainian membership in NATO has now become much, much more likely. Every step of increased Russian aggression makes it even more probable. Russia will have shockingly little choice in the matter at this point.

 

[theeedude]

No, none of this is accurate. Russia would likely invade a portion of Ukraine and do something with that, and the remainder of Ukraine will join NATO.

Regardless, Ukrainian membership in NATO has now become much, much more likely. Every step of increased Russian aggression makes it even more probable. Russia will have shockingly little choice in the matter at this point.

So you are saying western Ukraine will recognize the loss of the east and join NATO as a smaller country?
Because if it doesn't recognize it, then NATO will be obligated by treaty to start a war on Russia to expel it from new member Ukraine. So it comes back to the same question for NATO, is it willing to fight a hot, potentially nuclear, war with Russia over expanding into Ukraine.

 

[fskimospy]

So you are saying western Ukraine will recognize the loss of the east and join NATO as a smaller country?
Because if it doesn't recognize it, then NATO will be obligated by treaty to start a war on Russia to expel it from new member Ukraine. So it comes back to the same question for NATO, is it willing to fight a hot, potentially nuclear, war with Russia over expanding into Ukraine.

Actually I'm quite certain that NATO will easily tailor the terms of their admission to skip that. Of all possible obstacles that's pretty much the smallest, as NATO controls all the terms of the agreement.

The idea that Ukranian NATO membership would either not happen or escalate into a regional or even nuclear war don't seem to have any foundation. There is a line in Ukraine that Putin is unwilling to cross, which is full annexation of the whole country. I have a lot of trouble seeing such a thing happen. The more of Ukraine he tries to take, the more likely it is that the remainder will join NATO.

Again, if Putin's goal is to keep Ukraine out of NATO he is shooting himself in the foot.

 

[Genx87]

I agree with eskimospy on this one. Putin is stepping on his own dick over the mess he created. He may take the eastern portions of Ukraine. But what is left of Ukraine is more likely to join NATO now. And why wouldn't they? They have a maniac on their eastern border trying to resurrect 1950.

 

[werepossum]

Actually I'm quite certain that NATO will easily tailor the terms of their admission to skip that. Of all possible obstacles that's pretty much the smallest, as NATO controls all the terms of the agreement.

The idea that Ukranian NATO membership would either not happen or escalate into a regional or even nuclear war don't seem to have any foundation. There is a line in Ukraine that Putin is unwilling to cross, which is full annexation of the whole country. I have a lot of trouble seeing such a thing happen. The more of Ukraine he tries to take, the more likely it is that the remainder will join NATO.

Again, if Putin's goal is to keep Ukraine out of NATO he is shooting himself in the foot.

Not necessarily. He's betting on being able to force on Ukraine a settlement that precludes Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO, on threat of invasion and war if Ukraine refuses. Personally I think taking the Crimea coupled with the certainly of Russia continuing its policies of hegemony will be a bridge too far and will convince Ukraine that capitulation is the worst case in the long run. But I can see how Senseamp's scenario plays out even though I don't agree with him that Putin is reacting from fear of having a NATO state on his border.

 

[theeedude]

Actually I'm quite certain that NATO will easily tailor the terms of their admission to skip that. Of all possible obstacles that's pretty much the smallest, as NATO controls all the terms of the agreement.

The idea that Ukranian NATO membership would either not happen or escalate into a regional or even nuclear war don't seem to have any foundation. There is a line in Ukraine that Putin is unwilling to cross, which is full annexation of the whole country. I have a lot of trouble seeing such a thing happen. The more of Ukraine he tries to take, the more likely it is that the remainder will join NATO.

Again, if Putin's goal is to keep Ukraine out of NATO he is shooting himself in the foot.

That is an assumption. Putin hasn't drawn any lines in Ukraine for Russia, just for NATO. Remember, he still doesn't recognize the new government in Kiev.
But aside from that, if NATO "tailors" its treaty terms so that it accepts Russian occupation of parts of member states, it will render Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty, and the whole concept of NATO meaningless.

 

[fskimospy]

Not necessarily. He's betting on being able to force on Ukraine a settlement that precludes Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO, on threat of invasion and war if Ukraine refuses. Personally I think taking the Crimea coupled with the certainly of Russia continuing its policies of hegemony will be a bridge too far and will convince Ukraine that capitulation is the worst case in the long run. But I can see how Senseamp's scenario plays out even though I don't agree with him that Putin is reacting from fear of having a NATO state on his border.

I could certainly be wrong, but I don't think Putin has enough leverage with the people in western Ukraine to turn whatever remains of Ukraine after this back into a Russian satellite, and failing that it seems that NATO membership is the wisest solution.

 

[Jaskalas]

REPORT: Putin halts all talks with White House...

As new U.S. sanctions against Russia loom, the Kremlin has shut down—at least for now—intensive high level communications between top U.S. and Russian officials.

So we're turning up the heat...

 

[norseamd]

If Russia goes into Ukraine, than NATO accepting Ukraine would require NATO to start a war with Russia. So it comes down to the same question. Is NATO willing to fight a hot war with Russia, which could turn nuclear, over expanding into Ukraine? NATO should answer this question for itself, before it leads Ukraine into believing that NATO has its back.

would like to see putin attack ukraine tommarrow if kyiz joined nato tomarrow

that muscovites equal infallible might = pure fallacy

 

[norseamd]

That is an assumption. Putin hasn't drawn any lines in Ukraine for Russia, just for NATO. Remember, he still doesn't recognize the new government in Kiev. But aside from that, if NATO "tailors" its treaty terms so that it accepts Russian occupation of parts of member states, it will render Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty, and the whole concept of NATO meaningless.

you are speaking pure horseshit

 

[norseamd]

Not necessarily. He's betting on being able to force on Ukraine a settlement that precludes Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO, on threat of invasion and war if Ukraine refuses. Personally I think taking the Crimea coupled with the certainly of Russia continuing its policies of hegemony will be a bridge too far and will convince Ukraine that capitulation is the worst case in the long run. But I can see how Senseamp's scenario plays out even though I don't agree with him that Putin is reacting from fear of having a NATO state on his border.

when has he used nato or eu been the primary cause of any of the shit that the russians have been doing

putin is embarrassed by the image of putin being tarnished at the olympics and he is lashing out

so sad

he is more or less proclaiming to the world that he thinks he has the right to do whatever he wants in ukraine

he wants to get rid of the current kyiv government and return some of his cronies to power

 

[norseamd]

Putin is stepping on his own dick over the mess he created

that is what has been his whole life since he was born

he used to run around in a gang when he was small. unfortunately he never grew more than small

then he watched some spy movies and thought they were badd ass and then joined the communist league which he was one of the few who the communist youth league had not allowed in. he then often preached political thoughts when with other russians

he also beat his wife for the last 30 years

 

[werepossum]

I could certainly be wrong, but I don't think Putin has enough leverage with the people in western Ukraine to turn whatever remains of Ukraine after this back into a Russian satellite, and failing that it seems that NATO membership is the wisest solution.

The threat to western Ukraine would be that if they attempt to join NATO, he'll simply invade and take all of Ukraine. At that point they are effectively Chechnya 2, a hostile province that periodically becomes a free fire zone. The threat to NATO is that if they attempt to allow Ukraine to join, he'll take Ukraine and probably the Baltics. There's a decent chance that one or the other blinks before Putin. If that does not happen, we're at war with a very heavily stocked nuclear power led by a maniac. If that does happen, we're watching the reformation of the Russian Empire knowing that once he has digested his new population, we're probably at war with a very heavily stocked nuclear empire led by a maniac. No good choices here.

 

[werepossum]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-04-25-15-42-55

Ukraine's deputy foreign minister said Friday he fears an imminent Russian invasion.

"We have the information we are in danger," Danylo Lubkivsky told reporters at the United Nations.

He spoke as an official in Ukraine confirmed that pro-Russian forces had detained a team of military observers with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The official said the team would be released after further investigation.

Lubkivsky said 20 members had been taken and called it shocking and unprecedented. "We demand to release hostages," he said.

Tensions have spiked as Russia increases military exercises along the Ukraine border. Lubkivsky called it a "very dangerous development" and demanded that Russia withdraw its troops.

"We are going to protect our motherland against any invasion," Lubkivsky said. "We call on the Russians to stop this madness.
SNIP"

 

[norseamd]

probably the Baltics

with regards to what you have been saying in agreement with senseamp the baltics are already nato

i would like to see putin try

 

[zinfamous]

with regards to what you have been saying in agreement with senseamp the baltics are already nato

i would like to see putin try

yes, I do doubt that Putin is this stupid, but word from my sources in Latvia are that everyone pretty much assumes Putin will be sending his army in relatively soon.

You see, unlike the fantasy world where people like senseamp believe this to be "ancient history," nearly everyone alive today, in those countries, know full well what it is like to be invaded and occupied by Russia.

 

[norseamd]

yes, I do doubt that Putin is this stupid, but word from my sources in Latvia are that everyone pretty much assumes Putin will be sending his army in relatively soon. You see, unlike the fantasy world where people like senseamp believe this to be "ancient history," nearly everyone alive today, in those countries, know full well what it is like to be invaded and occupied by Russia.

yah

putin and the russians of today might be crazy

the question is will they

they have a hyperinflated psycology

 

[werepossum]

with regards to what you have been saying in agreement with senseamp the baltics are already nato

i would like to see putin try

If NATO cannot deter Putin from taking Ukraine, I seriously doubt NATO can deter Putin from taking the Baltic states That's my point. That's why it is so important that Putin be deterred from taking Ukraine - this isn't only about Ukraine, it's also about all Russia's weak neighbors and whether he should be allowed to take them piecemeal. Although I will say that I doubt Ukraine ever regains the Crimea, which historically has belonged to Russia more often than to Ukraine, which Putin needs to support his port in bullying his neighbors, and which is now filled with ethnic Russians who want to be part of Mother Russia. Morally I think it should belong to Ukraine because of the relatively recent genocide against the Tartars, but I don't see how we manage that without forcibly taking it away.

 

[TROLLERCAUST]

http://www.bbc.com/news/27167187
Russian jets 'entered Ukraine airspace'

"The US says Russian military aircraft have entered Ukrainian airspace several times in the past 24 hours, amid rising tension in the east of the country.
A Pentagon spokesman told the BBC that the incidents had happened mainly near the border with Russia, but gave no further details."

There were voluntary military exercises this weekend for me. I refused to go, felt lazy and the invitation was before this Russian aggression. Maybe I should've gone to learn the use of the new anti-tank weapon NLAW. Who knows I might need the skills soon.