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RIM death watch

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the android phones coming out in the next couple months are going to be a huge kick in balls to rim (and apple for that matter). four months from now nobody will be buying bb
 
Any of you "market share" tracking junkies ever consider that maybe RIM isn't "losing" ground just holding steady in a market that is growing so rapidly in the consumer segment? Seriously damn near every kid over 10 probably has a "smart" phone now...BB still reigns for business and that isn't gonna change for a long time, but now that the consumer segment is so much larger they're value is bound to go down but they're not going out anytime soon
 
corwin said:
Any of you "market share" tracking junkies ever consider that maybe RIM isn't "losing" ground just holding steady in a market that is growing so rapidly in the consumer segment? Seriously damn near every kid over 10 probably has a "smart" phone now...BB still reigns for business and that isn't gonna change for a long time, but now that the consumer segment is so much larger they're value is bound to go down but they're not going out anytime soon
Click to expand...

Calm down fanboy, you're going to give yourself a hernia.
 
corwin said:
Any of you "market share" tracking junkies ever consider that maybe RIM isn't "losing" ground just holding steady in a market that is growing so rapidly in the consumer segment? Seriously damn near every kid over 10 probably has a "smart" phone now...BB still reigns for business and that isn't gonna change for a long time, but now that the consumer segment is so much larger they're value is bound to go down but they're not going out anytime soon
Click to expand...

Ha ha. Wow. Most of us have seen the business market share declining first-hand.
 
Ichinisan said:
Ha ha. Wow. Most of us have seen the business market share declining first-hand.
Click to expand...

Year 1:
(manufacturer) (shipments)
RIM 10M
Apple 1M
Google 1M

Marketsize: 12M
RIM's share: 87%

Year 2:
RIM 12M
Apple 6M
Google 6M

Marketsize: 24M
RIM's share: 50%

Year3:
RIM 14M
Apple 20M
Google 20M

Market size: 54M
RIM's share: 26%


Notice how RIM's share is tanking, but they are shipping more phones each year? That isn't too far from what is actually happening. It wasn't until very recently that RIM shipped fewer phones than they had ever previously. With the Bold 9900 sales coming in, it wouldn't surprise me if that was a temporary thing and they started upwards again. It's not that RIM is doing poorly per se, it's just that everyone else is growing way faster than RIM is.

RIM still brings in hundreds of millions of dollars in net income each quarter. They're profitable, they have tons of cash in the bank (not Apple or Google levels of cash, but still).
 
Weeeeee. RIM outages the past few days have been fun! Last 2 days it was our European and Mid East employees (even those in the US), and today it's our US employees as well.

$ell that stock! 😉
 
Lifted said:
Weeeeee. RIM outages the past few days have been fun! Last 2 days it was our European employees (even those in the US), and today it's our US employees as well.

$ell that stock! 😉
Click to expand...

Yup. Can't send e-mails properly. Internet browsing is basically dead. BBM isn't working.

RIM/Blackberry sure has some great timing. Can't wait for my iPhone on Friday.
 
Josh said:
Yup. Can't send e-mails properly. Internet browsing is basically dead. BBM isn't working.

RIM/Blackberry sure has some great timing. Can't wait for my iPhone on Friday.
Click to expand...

Corp IT just sent us an email on this. I was without email/BBM for a few hours. He did say this type of things happens with the corp iPhones all the time.
 
Lifted said:
Weeeeee. RIM outages the past few days have been fun! Last 2 days it was our European and Mid East employees (even those in the US), and today it's our US employees as well.

$ell that stock! 😉
Click to expand...

Sell it at it's low point, when rumours abound about a possible buyout/takeover/merger? When the estimated fair value is in the $40-60 range?

No, you sell at $70. You buy at $20.
 
silverpig said:
Sell it at it's low point, when rumours abound about a possible buyout/takeover/merger? When the estimated fair value is in the $40-60 range?

No, you sell at $70. You buy at $20.
Click to expand...

Price at $40-$60 assumes some slow/moderate future growth. After the 2008 market crash, Apple and Google recovered most of their price. RIM didn't... It was the Playbook announcement that sent the price from ~$40 to the $60 range last Fall, IIRC. That's a flop.
 
corwin said:
Any of you "market share" tracking junkies ever consider that maybe RIM isn't "losing" ground just holding steady in a market that is growing so rapidly in the consumer segment? Seriously damn near every kid over 10 probably has a "smart" phone now...BB still reigns for business and that isn't gonna change for a long time, but now that the consumer segment is so much larger they're value is bound to go down but they're not going out anytime soon
Click to expand...

humm stock down to 20.00 from 150
a tablet that was a total flop
500,000 users leave RIM each month
a week long system problem
no accountability in the company culture
2 CEO's. (still scratching my head over that business model)


ummm yea keep thinking they are not losing ground.
 
Last edited:
silverpig said:
Corp IT just sent us an email on this. I was without email/BBM for a few hours. He did say this type of things happens with the corp iPhones all the time.
Click to expand...

Don't see how. If BB devices depend on RIM's infrastructure, and RIM's infrastructure goes between your device and your usual email system, then using a device that bypasses RIM's infrastructure will not make your email system more or less unreliable. It actually makes your device somewhat more reliable because one possible point of failure (RIM's system) has been eliminated from the picture.
 
silverpig said:
Corp IT just sent us an email on this. I was without email/BBM for a few hours. He did say this type of things happens with the corp iPhones all the time.
Click to expand...


That's interesting... We support a bunch of phones here, and while dealing with avoiding itunes support is a mega PITA, the phones seem to ALWAYS work.


BB on the other hand goes down every 6 months or so.



That being said, imo BB will go nowhere until apple comes out with a decent enterprise management utility (activate and use WITHOUT itunes). Perhaps ios5 brings this..
 
Apparently somebody is trying give RIM a hard time as staff here are getting BBM's to telling them "This is a message from RIM. We need to know which users are active, so please forward this message to everyone in your BBM list."

A few million people doing that should help speed the recovery along! 😀
 
SpatiallyAware said:
That being said, imo BB will go nowhere until apple comes out with a decent enterprise management utility (activate and use WITHOUT itunes). Perhaps ios5 brings this..
Click to expand...

I hear you, but I don't know if we will ever see that happen. Apple doesn't get a monthly revenue from iPhones (as far as I know) the same way RIM does. Apple makes revenue from selling apps, music, movies, etc., so for them to allow iPhones to not be tied to an iTunes account (and credit card) means they remove the only recurring revenue they see for the phones.

Maybe they will offer some other enterprise service that they can milk for a monthly fee which will allow companies to bypass the need for itunes and CC requirement.
 
silverpig said:
Corp IT just sent us an email on this. I was without email/BBM for a few hours. He did say this type of things happens with the corp iPhones all the time.
Click to expand...

iPhones (and Androids for the most part) connect directly to your servers for email unless you are using Good Technology or something similar. Your IT dept can't blame the iPhone if mail goes down. They need to blame their servers or Good. With BBs most data does through their servers like a middle man. If those servers go down than there is nothing you can do but blame RIM.
 
silverpig said:
Year 1:
(manufacturer) (shipments)
RIM 10M
Apple 1M
Google 1M

Marketsize: 12M
RIM's share: 87%

Year 2:
RIM 12M
Apple 6M
Google 6M

Marketsize: 24M
RIM's share: 50%

Year3:
RIM 14M
Apple 20M
Google 20M

Market size: 54M
RIM's share: 26%


Notice how RIM's share is tanking, but they are shipping more phones each year? That isn't too far from what is actually happening. It wasn't until very recently that RIM shipped fewer phones than they had ever previously. With the Bold 9900 sales coming in, it wouldn't surprise me if that was a temporary thing and they started upwards again. It's not that RIM is doing poorly per se, it's just that everyone else is growing way faster than RIM is.

RIM still brings in hundreds of millions of dollars in net income each quarter. They're profitable, they have tons of cash in the bank (not Apple or Google levels of cash, but still).
Click to expand...


They were shipping more phones because they were moving downmarket into poorer countries. US sales have been decreasing for over a year. What happens to all their low end sales when we see $100 Android phones?
 
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