Republicans doomed in 2016 and beyond, says conservative strategist

[shira]

An interesting perspective on the significance of the 2014 election, and on where the U.S. is really heading politically in the future. Considering that Ladd appears to pretty clearly see the insanity and dishonesty of many Republican tactics (climate denial, for example, and voter suppression), it's actually surprising that he's on the Republican side of the political divide. I think several of his points are spot-on. For example, in the 2016 election, at least 18 Senate seats currently held by Republicans will probably be competitive; but only one currently-Democratic seat is in the same category. So there's essentially a zero percent chance that Republicans will be able to hold onto the Senate, especially in a Presidential-election year, where the turnout will be much higher than the abysmal 36% that turned out three weeks ago.

He also predicts that Republicans will soon start claiming credit for the economic recovery that started a year ago (the magic of their "mandate") and that they'll be unable to prevent themselves from engaging in "two years of intense, horrifying stupidity: . . . climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi." It's nice to see an honest conservative for a change, who is willing to call a spade a spade:

Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last. Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole “voter integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for the foreseeable future.

Anyway, here's the entire, long article.

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.

Behold the Blue Wall:

The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.

Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s 270 out of 270.

This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.

By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress, which currently amounts to 149 electoral votes. What happened to that fortress amid the glory of the 2014 “victory?” It shrunk yet again. Not only are New Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the competitive map, Georgia is now clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did not start in 2014 and it will not end here. This is a long-term realignment that been in motion for more than a decade and continues to accelerate.

The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The Republican party’s geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of American actually got worse.

A few other items of interest from the 2014 election results:

- Republican Senate candidates lost every single race behind the Blue Wall. Every one.

- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but their success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot. None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the ACA. Rauner stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly, similar to other northern states, without losing a single seat.

- Republicans in 2014 were the most popular girl at a party no one attended. Voter turnout was awful.

- Democrats have consolidated their power behind the sections of the country that generate the overwhelming bulk of America’s wealth outside the energy industry. That’s only ironic if you buy into far-right propaganda, but it’s interesting none the less.

- Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last. Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole “voter integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for the foreseeable future.

- Across the country, every major Democratic ballot initiative was successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red states.

- Every personhood amendment failed.

- For only the second time in fifty years Nebraska is sending a Democrat to Congress. Former Republican, Brad Ashford, defeated one of the GOP’s most stubborn climate deniers to take the seat.

- Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the former Confederacy. Total coincidence, just pointing that out.

- In Congress, there are no more white Democrats from the South. The long flight of the Dixiecrats has concluded.

- Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate because they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In 2016 Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats and at least 18 of them are likely to be competitive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be defending precisely one seat that could possibly be competitive. One.

- And that “Republican wave?” In Congressional elections this year it amounted to a total of 52% of the vote. That’s it.

- Republican support grew deeper in 2014, not broader. For example, new Texas Governor Greg Abbott won a whopping victory in the Republic of Baptistan. That’s great, but that’s a race no one ever thought would be competitive and hardly anyone showed up to vote in. Texas not only had the lowest voter turnout in the country (less than 30%), a position it has consistently held across decades, but that electorate is more militantly out of step with every national trend then any other major Republican bloc. Texas now holds a tenth of the GOP majority in the House.

- Keep an eye on oil prices. Texas, which is at the core of GOP dysfunction, is a petro-state with an economy roughly as diverse and modern as Nigeria, Iran or Venezuela. It was been relatively untouched by the economic collapse because it is relatively dislocated from the US economy in general. Watch what happens if the decline in oil prices lasts more than a year.

- For all the talk about economic problems, for the past year the US economy has been running at ’90’s levels. Watch Republicans start touting a booming economy as the result of their 2014 “mandate.”

- McConnell’s conciliatory statements are encouraging, but he’s about to discover that he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen to cooperate on anything constructive. We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot, but these next two years will be a (briefly) happy period for you.

This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.

What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi.

It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the next wave of our economic and political transformation. The opportunities we inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by one while we chase so-called “issues” so stupid, so blindingly disconnected from our emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our performance in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation that fought desegregation.

Something, some force, some gathering of sane, rational, authentically concerned human beings generally at peace with reality must emerge in the next four to six years from the right, or our opportunity will be lost for a long generation. Needless to say, Greg Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that force.

“Winning” this election did not help that force emerge. This was a dark week for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America remain the world’s most vibrant, most powerful nation.

 

[Blanky]

Nobody cares about bengazi anymore but u agree the future is not bright for republicans long term. Their supporting demographic is being squeezed out and that won't change.

 

[Moonbeam]

I think there is a difference between a conservative and the psychopathology we see in the political right today. Economic competition in the media, for one thing, has led to the pursuit of ratings. We get Jerry Springer in one branch of the entertainment field and Rush Limpbrow in another. This race to the bottom drags the American psyche down. Capitalism and freedom have two arms, one of which has atrophied. With freedom comes responsibility. It is irresponsible not to maintain the highest moral and intellectual and impartial standards to what Americans are fed because we are what we eat. I hope everybody understands this as a metaphor.

Once one has created a pit of blood crazed vipers, as it were, it is rather much to expect them to self correct but this is exactly, it seems to me, what has to happen.

Humanity is asleep and operates like a machine. It is not capable of planning but only of reacting. An amoeba that moves toward a fire will either burn or turn. Parts of the amoeba will see fate coming a long way off and put out a warning, but the mass will roll along in its sleep. Only when the mass becomes consciously aware of it's condition will we see any desire to change. Then there is the question of what direction is it safe for the machine to go in. All of this takes time for a machine to learn. Of course, if there was some widespread awareness that consciousness is what is needed, things might go less mechanically.

What we can see here, perhaps, is that perturbations in the external conditions of the amoeba may cause it to move to the left a bit. If so, it will simply be what amoebas do in their sleep. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

 

[kage69]

Cue character assassination from republican faithful in 3...2...

I'd say this kind of candor might be the only thing that can really save that party, but his points will most likely be derided as the ravings of a RINO and dismissed. The spiral around the drain continues...

 

[Greenman]

All of the speculation and graphs mean nothing if the Republicans can field one good presidential candidate. One man can change the entire political landscape.

That they absolutely won't allow a good candidate to run is a different discussion.

 

[Moonbeam]

All of the speculation and graphs mean nothing if the Republicans can field one good presidential candidate. One man can change the entire political landscape.

That they absolutely won't allow a good candidate to run is a different discussion.

Right, it's not too likely they'd run a non Republican candidate.

 

[Bowfinger]

I think "doomed" is overstating it, but they have an uphill battle, to be sure. Demographics changes and the GOP's growing extremist fringe are both eroding the party's viability. The GOP has been able to mitigate this somewhat through several unethical tactics (e.g., voter suppression, gerrymandering, well-honed propaganda), but it's costing them the enthusiasm of their traditional base of moderate, rational conservatives. I've seen this among real-life conservatives for many years, a growing feeling that the party is moving away. We've more recently started seeing it here in P&N, where formerly staunch Republicans a few years ago are now openly dissatisfied.

Certainly, they like the Democratic party even less, and often for good reasons. The Democrats are chasing the same deep pockets, and are therefore selling out Americans on most of the same major issues. The Dems aren't giving their own base much reason to support them, let alone unhappy conservatives. But I think the GOP will only continue losing support unless it rejects the extremists and returns to something more considered and less nakedly corrupt. It remains to be seen whether this leads to a new, viable conservative party, or increased support for the Democrats. I suspect it will depend on which party pulls its head out of its ass first.

 

[Nebor]

I doubt we'll see another republican president in the next 20 years. Changing demographics can only be fought via gerrymandering and voter suppression for so long.

 

[doubledeluxe]

Every 2 years we hear this

 

[Greenman]

Right, it's not too likely they'd run a non Republican candidate.

If you think political affinity defines a mans character then I guess that's a valid statement.

 

[Bitek]

I doubt we'll see another republican president in the next 20 years. Changing demographics can only be fought via gerrymandering and voter suppression for so long.

IDK. 2016 will be tough for the GOP, but 16 years of a single party in the WH is unusual.

 

[doubledeluxe]

How do we get term limits and a line item veto? That's what I want to know.

 

[Moonbeam]

If you think political affinity defines a mans character then I guess that's a valid statement.

I don't but it would be pretty hard, in my opinion, to be a modern Republican and have any real character. Democrats are far far from perfect, in my opinion, but they aren't completely insane. Folk like Ted Cruz and others in the T party are, of course again, in my opinion.

 

[Moonbeam]

How do we get term limits and a line item veto? That's what I want to know.

Probably when the conscious awareness of the danger to do without them overcomes ignorance and apathy. This could happen, I would think, when the pain of our situation coupled with some level of intelligence as to what to do combine to create a movement. This would mean for the average person an increase in desperation and for the few who know what to do, a concerted effort to get out that information. Personally I favor a constitutional convention that focus on reversing the Supreme Coup's decisions that corporations are people and money is speech. I believe that none of the above as a choice on ballots and the ability to have your vote counted for first second and third choices would make for more political variety. There are many many other things that also need fixing. How absurd can it be for a bunch of egotistical whores to vote for their own pay increases.

 

[Moonbeam]

IDK. 2016 will be tough for the GOP, but 16 years of a single party in the WH is unusual.

It's not often that a party gets saddled with an albatross like the T-Party either.

It's hard to get good sex when you bring a skunk with you to bed.

 

[Sonikku]

Are the Republicans in trouble in 2016? Maybe, maybe not.

What will change if they're in trouble? Nothing.
What will change if they're not in trouble? Nothing.

 

[Jhhnn]

All of the speculation and graphs mean nothing if the Republicans can field one good presidential candidate. One man can change the entire political landscape.

That they absolutely won't allow a good candidate to run is a different discussion.

If you think political affinity defines a mans character then I guess that's a valid statement.

You're talking about Colbert's "Rick Parry", the dreamed for yet utterly mythical Repub candidate. The guy who can't exist because he'll get nowhere in the Party in the first place. The right wing money machine has been grooming their guys for 35 years, winnowing out the ones who don't toe the line. It's like a clone factory.

 

[Genx87]

I heard the Republican party was dead in 2008. In 2014 they control more of the house than they have since the end of WWII.

The Republican party will change with the demographics. Nothing is static.

 

[Greenman]

I don't but it would be pretty hard, in my opinion, to be a modern Republican and have any real character. Democrats are far far from perfect, in my opinion, but they aren't completely insane. Folk like Ted Cruz and others in the T party are, of course again, in my opinion.

You live in a black and white world. You should try mine someday, it's in color.

 

[Greenman]

You're talking about Colbert's "Rick Parry", the dreamed for yet utterly mythical Repub candidate. The guy who can't exist because he'll get nowhere in the Party in the first place. The right wing money machine has been grooming their guys for 35 years, winnowing out the ones who don't toe the line. It's like a clone factory.

Sadly, I can't repudiate that statement. They seem stuck on bringing their guy up through the ranks, and won't allow a candidate that hasn't paid his dues. Though they did make an exception for Sara Palin, and got badly burned for their trouble.

 

[uclaLabrat]

All of the speculation and graphs mean nothing if the Republicans can field one good presidential candidate. One man can change the entire political landscape.

That they absolutely won't allow a good candidate to run is a different discussion.

Precisely this...they have managed to paint themselves so far into the corner that no decent, respectable repub has a chance of making it out of the primaries

 

[Zorkorist]

I would hope that one man, cannot, change the Political world, or our nation.

It's ideas that form a nation, and laws that make a nation.

I think our 1776 ideas, are too old today.

From my perspective, they have not protected the individual, 225 years later.

Our Nation is Founded on an ideal (the individual,) not a Government.

-John

 

[finglobes]

When Obama was elected Obama voters here were saying Dems would be in power 40 years - then Obama and Dems brought GOP back from the brink in massive way in 2010. After alienating the same 2010 voters and self destructing with an emasculated Romney campaign Obama and Dems have brought GOP back even more - all while GOP base is quite unhappy with them.

Obama is not a real Dem firster - he's a radical who sees everyone and everything as expendable. Dem party is the one scheduled for the ash heap. Obama is only getting started being a psycho. He' setting the ME on fire and sowing anarchy at home. Dems aren't even American anymore. If they suddenly got everything they wanted America would cease to exist in a few hours

 

[Jhhnn]

I heard the Republican party was dead in 2008. In 2014 they control more of the house than they have since the end of WWII.

The Republican party will change with the demographics. Nothing is static.

I'm not sure how much they can change given the ideology of their biggest donors & of their voting base. If anything, they've turned more radical right since 2008, not less. The Tea Party is a manifestation of that, very much a big money sponsored insurrection against a Party leadership less radical than they'd like.

It's an interesting piece, for sure. The author's take on voter suppression is refreshingly honest, lending credibility to the rest. One of the things he doesn't mention is the changing viewpoint of Seniors, traditionally a Repub voting block. As a group, Boomers are a lot less conservative than their predecessors, particularly early boomers who came of age in the 60's. That shift of sentiment augments the demographic changes he mentions.

 

[Greenman]

I would hope that one man, cannot, change the Political world, or our nation.

It's ideas that form a nation, and laws that make a nation.

I think our 1776 ideas, are too old today.

From my perspective, they have not protected the individual, 225 years later.

Our Nation is Founded on an ideal (the individual,) not a Government.

-John

Our worst enemy is complacency, the one thing the USA has an abundance of.