Discussion RDNA 5 / UDNA (CDNA Next) speculation

[Thunder 57]

I gave you the size of the market, ~$6.5 billion of client dGPU cards (excluding APU).

It seems like you are in denial, and that NVidia's $4.5 trillion market cap started from "gaming".



How do you know this?

Because equivalent NVidia die is for:
- client gaming
- cloud gaming
- "professional" workstation graphics
- visualization, rendering
- video editing, post production
- crypto
- data analysis
- AI programming development platform
- client AI
- machine learning

$4.5 trillion market cap for NVidia started from these same DIY cards and with investment in software tools, multiplied the uses of these and similar dies.



It's almost like you are trolling...

Yea if that quote isn't trolling I don't know what is.

 

[Win2012R2]

no lol, it was 1:4 ratio usually.

No it wasn't.

"The PlayStation 5 is currently ahead by 25.42 million units. The PlayStation 5 has sold 52.65 million units in 38 months, while the Xbox Series X|S sold 27.23 million units. The PlayStation 5 has a 65.9 percent marketshare (+4.8% year-over-year), compared to 34.1 percent for the Xbox Series X|S (-4.8% year-over-year)."

This is end of 2023 situation, year after which Xbox hardware relative decline started: https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459675/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-sales-comparison-december-2023/

It's likely worse than 1:4 now, with PC gaming going up in price next year this will only accelerate.

 

[Win2012R2]

Anyone who poo-poos NVidia "gaming" revenue, which includes desktop dGPU, mobile dGPU, workstation dGPU and industrial uses of GPUs derived from the same die - anyone who think this market is not worth pursuing is not living in reality.

Agreed, all I was saying that 5090 market is very different in terms of volume than console, completely different people buying those.

No one at AMD is interested in gaming.

Liar.

Especially not Lisa, she outright hates gambling with R&D cash.

Obviously she is the problem, but that does not mean "no one at AMD is interested in gaming", that's an utter lie. Instead of wasting so of the company stock for Xilinx they should have put it into GPU R&D, maybe AI stuff would have been more successful.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Liar

It's the truth.

but that does not mean "no one at AMD is interested in gaming", that's an utter lie

It's the truth.

Instead of wasting so of the company stock for Xilinx they should have put it into GPU R&D, maybe AI stuff would have been more successful.

Instead of acquiring a very successful business with top-shelf IP they should've gambled R&D buxx on graphics again?
Dawg this ain't 2007 anymore, AMD is long over client gfx.

 

[Talin3]

At this point it really feels like AMD is optimizing for IP reuse and APUs rather than chasing a halo dGPU. A 2-year cadence and three monolithic dies makes sense if RDNA5 is meant to scale down into consoles and client parts first, not to win spec-sheet battles. Whether that’s smart or not depends on how much margin they still expect from consumer GPUs versus Instinct and EPYC. The lack of a clear ultra-enthusiast part is worrying for mindshare, but it’s consistent with where their revenue focus seems to be heading.

 

[adroc_thurston]

At this point it really feels like AMD is optimizing for IP reuse and APUs rather than chasing a halo dGPU

No, they're optimizing around having no discrete offerings in the market.

The lack of a clear ultra-enthusiast part is worrying for mindshare

Ah no they've given up on the "winning mindshare" meme.

 

[Thunder 57]

Agreed, all I was saying that 5090 market is very different in terms of volume than console, completely different people buying those.

Liar.

Obviously she is the problem, but that does not mean "no one at AMD is interested in gaming", that's an utter lie. Instead of wasting so of the company stock for Xilinx they should have put it into GPU R&D, maybe AI stuff would have been more successful.

Nah I think acquiring Xilinx was the right call. But to say AMD doesn't care about graphics is bunk. They need to for consoles/iGPU's at the very least.

 

[adroc_thurston]

But to say AMD doesn't care about graphics is bunk. They need to for consoles/iGPU's at the very least.

Graphics means the actual AIC attached discrete market for it, not the IP itself.
AMD makes great gfx IP but they have zero interest in competing with Nvidia.

 

[Thunder 57]

Graphics means the actual AIC attached discrete market for it, not the IP itself.
AMD makes great gfx IP but they have zero interest in competing with Nvidia.

When you put it that way I may agree. Though I doubt Nvidia cares much about discrete graphics either.

 

[poke01]

When you put it that way I may agree. Though I doubt Nvidia cares much about discrete graphics either.

Oh you care when you own 90% of the market.

 

[marees]

No it wasn't.

"The PlayStation 5 is currently ahead by 25.42 million units. The PlayStation 5 has sold 52.65 million units in 38 months, while the Xbox Series X|S sold 27.23 million units. The PlayStation 5 has a 65.9 percent marketshare (+4.8% year-over-year), compared to 34.1 percent for the Xbox Series X|S (-4.8% year-over-year)."

This is end of 2023 situation, year after which Xbox hardware relative decline started: https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459675/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-sales-comparison-december-2023/

It's likely worse than 1:4 now, with PC gaming going up in price next year this will only accelerate.

latest figures below

folks over at VGChartz have shared their latest console sales estimates today (that go up to November), and they suggest that Xbox has sold over two million Series X|S consoles this year.

Compared to 2024, this is said to be a -45.1% decrease on the previous figure of 4.79 million, but that's absolutely no surprise when you consider both systems have received quite significant price increases over the past 12 months.

VGChartz now claims that Xbox has (cumulatively?) sold 34.1 million units worldwide of the Series X and S, compared to 12.4 million for the Nintendo Switch 2, 86.1 million for the PS5, and 152.7 million for the Nintendo Switch 1.

These estimates also suggest that Series X|S console sales have been slowly declining in recent years on a similar trajectory to the original Nintendo Switch. The Switch's decline has been sharper for obvious reasons, but over four million people are still said to have bought a Switch 1 this year.

Latest Sales Estimates Suggest Xbox Sold Over Two Million Series X|S Consoles In 2025

Despite the price increases

www.purexbox.com

 

[adroc_thurston]

Though I doubt Nvidia cares much about discrete graphics either.

They do, it's basically free money for NV.
They own the place and they'd rather keep it that way.

 

[dangerman1337]

A big hole in "AMD won't do much dGPUs especially in the high end" thing, why are they doing 9950X3D2s in the CPU space or X3D in general to be revealed next week? I mean X3D has uses beyond gaming yet they primarily market it as such even though dual V-Cache on both dies doesn't bring much benefit.

 

[marees]

A big hole in "AMD won't do much dGPUs especially in the high end" thing, why are they doing 9950X3D2s in the CPU space or X3D in general to be revealed next week? I mean X3D has uses beyond gaming yet they primarily market it as such even though dual V-Cache on both dies doesn't bring much benefit.

are the chip sizes & fab costs comparable ?

 

[adroc_thurston]

A big hole in "AMD won't do much dGPUs especially in the high end" thing, why are they doing 9950X3D2s in the CPU space or X3D in general to be revealed next week? I mean X3D has uses beyond gaming yet they primarily market it as such even though dual V-Cache on both dies doesn't bring much benefit.

All those parts are server rejects.
For Z6 they're also premium mobile rejects.

Client graphics, OTOH, requires bespoke engineering.