R Read - "Our semi-custom APUs" = Xbox 720 + PS4?

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Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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We can just look at non FB access limited situations, best case scenario we see a 100% performance improvement.

Why? APUs in present systems are small because there is no sense in making them bigger, since they would be BW limited anyway. The most convincing rumors I have heard of are of an APU with a small CPU (4 jaguar cores) bolted onto a medium-large GPU on the same chip. That way, you can have a chip roughly the size of Tahiti, with the GPU power of Pitcairn in a single reasonably cheap chip.

Not even remotely close. I don't think people are properly grasping how stupidly bad APU parts are, and it isn't just a matter of bandwidth. The GF 640 sodomizes APUs, a part that we all laugh at as pathetic and clearly non gaming at all. It isn't all a matter of bandwidth either, that is only one of the massive flaws APUs have.

What is it about APUs you think makes SPs less effective? A SP is a SP regardless of whether there is a CPU on the same piece of silicon or not. If the APU has 1024 shaders, it's gonna be as good as a 7850.

If you want to think about this in the proper context, when the PS3 released it was one generation behind the top desktop parts, the 360 was *ahead* of the top desktop parts when it released. That is what we are looking at in terms of where console gamers expect their consoles to be, not getting violently beat down by HTPC parts.

Both the primary console makers have made noise about not being willing to take as much losses on the consoles as last time, and that the sticker prices of consoles are going to have to be lower. Also, last time the best possible PC systems could be fit into a console physical enclosure and still be cooled. This time around, there is no way they are going to match the high-end pc's, let alone exceed them.

1000% is your baseline for being *average*. Jaguar would be an epicly massive failure for MS- it would be closer to a PS2.5 for Sony.

I don't think you understand just how bad the CPUs were last time around. By Microsoft's own numbers, optimized game code can expect to reach 0.2 IPC per thread on the Xenon, and Cell is even harder to get good utilization on. Bobcat can easily get over 1 IPC on code optimized only by the compiler, and can probably sustain near 2 IPC if you hand-optimize to the level console programmers are used to. Jaguar would be a huge leap up from the past gen.

Just to repeat: Whether it's going to be an APU or not is completely irrelevant for now. Only things that matter is the total amount of GPU power, total memory bandwidth, and total CPU power they ship in a package. For the envelope they seem to be going for, an APU seems like a good fit.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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IBM was saying they were working on it years ago. Doesn't mean it *will* end up being in either console, but it was in development based on the Power8 architecture.

It was canceled. Never was announced, but the people who would be working on it have all since moved to other projects. Cell is dead.
 

psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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That's not exactly what I was referring to. Your previous statements read almost as if it was from the P.T. Barnum of Microsoft. There's more to it all than what you're relaying. There's plenty of solid places you can read up on this stuff.

I appreciate your thoughtful, well reasoned point by point refutations of my reasoning and arguments.
 
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Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
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First, you'd need ~64MB-128MB of eDRAM, on top of 7770 level GPU and the CPU, you are talking ~GTX 480 die size. How are you going to cool that in a console? You could say pairing GDDR5 with a 512bit bus

Your expectations are way too high. The highest end of the reasonable expectations are for something in the 256bit DDR4 category, or half that and 20MB eDRAM.

Sony is broke. They simply cannot afford to pay a few billion to subsidize a console at launch like the last time, even if they wanted to. The MSE&D division is under pressure to start making profits from their devices, and is not likely to spend much more than they feel they have to.
 

psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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Your expectations are way too high. The highest end of the reasonable expectations are for something in the 256bit DDR4 category, or half that and 20MB eDRAM.

Sony is broke. They simply cannot afford to pay a few billion to subsidize a console at launch like the last time, even if they wanted to. The MSE&D division is under pressure to start making profits from their devices, and is not likely to spend much more than they feel they have to.

Can't afford and have no reason to. There is no Blu-ray equivalent to push. With Nintendo self destructing and their other divisions losing out to an onslaught of low cost competitors, a high margin market segment with just one other competitor is extremely valuable. Approximately duplicate Microsofts hardware, driving down costs for everyone, including developers and publishers, settle for relative market parity with Microsoft, differentiate with their real strength, first party titles, and start reaping the profits.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
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yes but, I think the Xbox 1 was a different beast, MS was buying CPUs from Intel (it was basically a mobile P3 with less l2 cache), not just licensing IP, which was a big mistake and caused the early death of the XB1, I think they did the same with the Nvidia GPU/Chipset....

but the XB1 was clearly the most capable console of its gen.


Correct, but AMD cannot license x86 IP (nor can Intel for that matter) Neither Intel nor AMD owns the entirety of x86 at this point.
 

psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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Correct, but AMD cannot license x86 IP (nor can Intel for that matter) Neither Intel nor AMD owns the entirety of x86 at this point.

Why would Ms need to license the chip IP, they only need the right to manufacture the chip if AMD goes under? If it's Kaveri it has sufficient HSA componenets to future proof it for the next decade.

Ms got bit on the Xbox by not securing the graphics IP from Nvidia, but a lot has changed since then.

It's a near certainty that what currently constitutes Xbox only games will also be released on the locked down 'metro' ecosystem, but NOT the Win 8 desktop.

With Xbox being one component of an intergrated locked down ecosystem, why bother locking down hardware CPU or GPU IP for it? It's not necessary and it's substantially cheaper to go with a near turnkey APU solution if it's up to the task.
 
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Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
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Why would Ms need to license the chip IP, they only need the right to manufacture the chip if AMD goes under? If it's Kaveri it has sufficient HSA componenets to future proof it for the next decade.

It's a near certainty that what currently constitutes Xbox only games will also be released on the locked down 'metro' ecosystem, but NOT the Win 8 desktop.

With Xbox being one component of an intergrated locked down ecosystem, why bother locking down hardware CPU or GPU IP for it? It's not necessary.

If AMD goes under, no 3rd party can manufacture an AMD x86 chip. As I said, they can't license the IP (a requirement to be able to manufacture) without Intel's involvement. Putting an AMD x86 chip in a console would be betting the survival of your console on the survival of AMD (the same with an Intel chip, though Intel isn't ailing like AMD).
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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If AMD goes under, no 3rd party can manufacture an AMD x86 chip. As I said, they can't license the IP (a requirement to be able to manufacture) without Intel's involvement. Putting an AMD x86 chip in a console would be betting the survival of your console on the survival of AMD (the same with an Intel chip, though Intel isn't ailing like AMD).

If Intel were to grant a waiver (likely for some fee) it would be for M$. Depending on the wording of the actual agreement between AMD and Intel, there may be scenarios where AMD can be a sub-contractor. Since we are not privy to the deal, we can't really know the details.
 

psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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If AMD goes under, no 3rd party can manufacture an AMD x86 chip. As I said, they can't license the IP (a requirement to be able to manufacture) without Intel's involvement. Putting an AMD x86 chip in a console would be betting the survival of your console on the survival of AMD (the same with an Intel chip, though Intel isn't ailing like AMD).

It wouldn't be a third party, it would be the continuation of an existing contract with a first party. It's an arkane legal area, but I find it hard to believe Intel could or would legally prevent a foundry from continuing to produce a contracted for customer specific x86 based chip. There surely must be a contingency to cover this.

Whether or not it's an APU, it's a near certainty Ms and Sony are sourcing their CPU and GPU components from AMD, and since x86 is the only horse in that barn, there obviously is a satisfactory resolution to the x86 question.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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It wouldn't be a third party, it would be the continuation of an existing contract with a first party. It's an arkane legal area, but I find it hard to believe Intel could or would legally prevent a foundry from continuing to produce a contracted for customer specific x86 based chip. There surely must be a contingency to cover this.

If Ms is using an AMD APU in their next console, which is looking ever more likely, the answer is obvious.

Intel hates MS, MS hates Intel. Also why you see Intel dabling in Linux/Android and MS trying with ARM.

There is no backup plan. No AMD, no APU. AMD only got by the lords grace right to fan chips on 3rd party foundries for themselve.
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-intel-x86-cpu,7285.html

"AMD cannot unilaterally extend Intel's licensing rights to a third party without Intel's consent," said Bruce Sewell, Intel's general counsel.

AMD cant sell a design to a 3rd party for an IP they dont own. In this case x86.
 
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Arzachel

Senior member
Apr 7, 2011
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First, you'd need ~64MB-128MB of eDRAM, on top of 7770 level GPU and the CPU, you are talking ~GTX 480 die size. How are you going to cool that in a console? You could say pairing GDDR5 with a 512bit bus would work giving up the need for eDRAM and getting it down to simply an enormous size die, but the production costs for the mobo and the cost of the RAM would end up being more then the cost of the APU. If the goal here is supposed to be saving money, a custom MIPS or POWER part with a dedicated GPU would be considerably cheaper then either of those setups, and it would rather handily best it in performance too.

A Jaguar quad with a ~7770 iGPU would pull around 80-90W with a die size around 300mm^2 with 64mb eDRAM factored in, a far cry from uncoolable or unmanufacturable. Any other reasons why you believe such APU couldn't be used?
 
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psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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Intel hates MS, MS hates Intel. Also why you see Intel dabling in Linux/Android and MS trying with ARM.

Intel needs Microsoft far more than Microsoft needs Intel. There is only one utterly dominant x86 OS, but there are two x86 chip manufacturers. If Intel went under tomorrow AMD would just take up the slack. If Microsoft went under, where would Intel be?

Intel is not going to do something to seriously piss Microsoft off.
 

BenSkywalker

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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What is it about APUs you think makes SPs less effective?

SPs aren't the issue, TMUs are.

I don't think you understand just how bad the CPUs were last time around.

Actually I understand them rather well. If you want to argue that AMD's chips are easier to extract performance from I'd give you that one easily, that's about where the benefits stop.

If the APU has 1024 shaders, it's gonna be as good as a 7850.

Not even remotely in the league of close. If you target a low resolution, like 1080p, with 64MB eDRAM you aren't going to have enough memory to cache textures on die unless you are going to write to an external FB, either way you are not going to be remotely close to 7850 performance.

Both the primary console makers have made noise about not being willing to take as much losses on the consoles as last time, and that the sticker prices of consoles are going to have to be lower.

Sony's major cost issue was the bleeding edge BR drives they were using, the rest of their system wasn't that expensive. Over the life of the consoles, I'd wager Cell+RSX was cheaper then a massive APU from AMD would be by a fairly large amount.

It was canceled. Never was announced, but the people who would be working on it have all since moved to other projects. Cell is dead.

Cell was rolled into Power8 development according to the CTO. It is now modular souped up vector units used in a modular setup around the base P8 core tailored to customer specifications.

The highest end of the reasonable expectations are for something in the 256bit DDR4 category, or half that and 20MB eDRAM.

Such a setup would fail in the marketplace. My expectations are on a reasonable upgrade to the prior generation, APUs aren't even close to that.

A Jaguar quad with a ~7770 iGPU would pull around 80-90W with a die size around 300mm^2 with 64mb eDRAM factored in, a far cry from uncoolable or unmanufacturable.

No chance. The 7770 consumes that much power on its' own, also what type of eDRAM are using to hit 300mm? My figures are over 200mm without touching the CPU cores or any of its' cache at all.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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Not even remotely in the league of close. If you target a low resolution, like 1080p

1080p is not going to be "low" res for next gen. Almost nobody has TVs of higher res than that. Next gen will probably be 720p/1080p in the way this gen was 600p/720p.

with 64MB eDRAM you aren't going to have enough memory to cache textures on die unless you are going to write to an external FB, either way you are not going to be remotely close to 7850 performance.
No-one is going to cache textures on the eDRAM. 256-bit DDR4 would be ~100GB/s, which is close enough to what 7850 has. (7850 is actually quite overprovisioned on bandwidth -- that's why it overclocks so well) DDR4 is the best candidate because it will be very cheap over most of the lifetime of the consoles.

Sony's major cost issue was the bleeding edge BR drives they were using, the rest of their system wasn't that expensive. Over the life of the consoles, I'd wager Cell+RSX was cheaper then a massive APU from AMD would be by a fairly large amount.

No way. Cell shrunk like a dog, due to large manual layout that took whole chip. They still do not have an APU version. New AMD designs are all-machine layout, meaning they can shrink to pretty much any dimension they want.

Such a setup would fail in the marketplace. My expectations are on a reasonable upgrade to the prior generation, APUs aren't even close to that.

We are talking about a higher gain in both CPU and GPU power than Xbox -> 360. How is that not a reasonable upgrade?
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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Sony's major cost issue was the bleeding edge BR drives they were using, the rest of their system wasn't that expensive. Over the life of the consoles, I'd wager Cell+RSX was cheaper then a massive APU from AMD would be by a fairly large amount.

You're saying that the huge cost of developing the Cell wasn't "that expensive"? This was a gargantuan task, creating a whole new type of processor from scratch, and it took years and years.

As for chip costs- don't forget that there's also the large costs of cooling chips. Two discrete chips means two bulky heatsinks with associated fans, and overall design of the system to allow for a more complicated airflow. Combining both chips into one die lets you make a simplified cooling system, making for a cheaper and smaller console. (And don't forget that the poor cooling design of the original 360 cost Microsoft somewhere in the range of $1billion- http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...ed_ring_of_death_costs_Microsoft_more_than_1B )


Such a setup would fail in the marketplace. My expectations are on a reasonable upgrade to the prior generation, APUs aren't even close to that.

Consoles can provide other unique selling points beyond graphics power. Again, look at the Wii. If MS and Sony can save on chip costs, then they can pour more money into, say, a new Kinect. (And besides, a DX11 gen graphics processor exposes lots of interesting features for developers to use, making better looking graphics through ways other than raw horsepower.)
 

BenSkywalker

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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1080p is not going to be "low" res for next gen.

Sony has already stated they are going to push 4K with the PS4. 1080p/3D is likely to be there baseline target, 'normal' 1080p will be low resolution. MS hasn't come out and said that they were going to match Sony explicitly, but I would be surprised if they let Sony clearly blow them away on this front.

Almost nobody has TVs of higher res than that.

Noone had 1080p 3D TVs at the start of this console generation, they still supported it and now it is used.

No-one is going to cache textures on the eDRAM. 256-bit DDR4 would be ~100GB/s, which is close enough to what 7850 has.

7850 has 153.6GB/sec bandwidth, without a CPU to share with.

We are talking about a higher gain in both CPU and GPU power than Xbox -> 360. How is that not a reasonable upgrade?

Xenon- 77GFLOPS(233GFLOPS for Cell)
XBox P3- 2.9GFLOPS(6.2GLOPS for EE in PS2)
Jaguar 4 core @4GHZ ~=128GFLOPS

If Jaguar has ten times the computational power that it will, it still wouldn't be a larger upgrade for the 720, it's a downgrade in computational throughput compared to Cell(although clearly it has large advantages in extracting real world performance).

NV2A- 932MPixels/1.9GTexel 29.1M triangles/sec 80GFLOPS
Xenos- 4GPixels/8GTexel 500M triangles/sec 240GFLOPS
7770- 4.3GPixels/37GTexels 990M triangles/sec 1.28TFLOPS
7850- 27.52GPixels/55GTexels 1.6B triangles/sec 1.75TFLOPS

Almost everyone I have heard states that the goal is to place a 7770 in the APU for the 720. If that is in fact the case, then it *isn't* a bigger upgrade then the 360 was over the original on either side, more disturbingly-

2001- XBox
2005- 360
2009-
2013- 720

That is a smaller overall upgrade after *double* the time. What's worse, that doesn't take into account the rather large *reduction* of FB bandwidth by dropping eDRAM. If you to use the 7850 numbers, then we are at comparable overall upgrades(roughly equal on wins and losses) but pushing Fermi die sizes and requiring insanely expensive bandwidth.

No way. Cell shrunk like a dog, due to large manual layout that took whole chip.

Cell is 115mm squared at 45nm, not sure where you got your information from, but if an eight core processor at 115mm on a 45nm build process is what you consider bad, I would *love* to see what you consider good.

You're saying that the huge cost of developing the Cell wasn't "that expensive"?

Two things, Sony is a publicly traded company and there was actually a book written on the subject. As of right now the cost for developing Cell is ~$7 per PS3 sold. Forget I said not that expensive, stupid cheap is more accurate.

Two discrete chips means two bulky heatsinks with associated fans

Having a given amount of heat spread out across a larger area is *MUCH* easier to cool. It isn't remotely close either.

Consoles can provide other unique selling points beyond graphics power.

Of course, increased memory to allow for larger areas, more powerful CPUs for better AI/physics etc(or GPGPU for physics). The gamers that buy the 360 and PS3, for the most part, don't care about stupid gimmicks. If MS and Sony try to go head to head with Nintendo on dumb control gimmicks they are going to lose, and lose badly.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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Sony has already stated they are going to push 4K with the PS4. 1080p/3D is likely to be there baseline target, 'normal' 1080p will be low resolution.
Just like last gen was HD? Nearly all top-end games of last gen were significantly below 720p. What marketing says before release and what game devs end up using is a very different thing. Pixel quality is generally more important than pixel quantity.

Noone had 1080p 3D TVs at the start of this console generation, they still supported it and now it is used.
Well, technically PS2 supported 1080p. Just like back then, no game dev is going to actually use the high resolutions.

7850 has 153.6GB/sec bandwidth, without a CPU to share with.
Of which portions need to be used to copy buffers for communication with the cpu. Sharing a memory bus with a CPU is generally either slightly advantageous or a wash.

Xenon- 77GFLOPS(233GFLOPS for Cell)
XBox P3- 2.9GFLOPS(6.2GLOPS for EE in PS2)
Jaguar 4 core @4GHZ ~=128GFLOPS

If Jaguar has ten times the computational power that it will, it still wouldn't be a larger upgrade for the 720, it's a downgrade in computational throughput compared to Cell

GFLOPS is not, and never has been, a measure of the speed of a CPU. Also, Jaguar doesn't clock to 4GHz -- realistic projections are in the ~2GHz range, +- a little.

Talking about peak throughput on CPUs that even in the best optimized real cases get tiny fractions of that is pretty misleading. Jaguar is a freakishly efficient chip per clock to people who are used to programming on last gen consoles. On last gen, things like a single small if clause took a dozen cycles on average -- Jaguar has a 1-cycle CMOV.

When comparing Jaguar throughput to last gen, it's fair to divide the last gen by 5 or so for differences in efficiency.

(although clearly it has large advantages in extracting real world performance).
It's not simply about how easy extracting performance is. If you had a lot of branchy, data-dependent code (and you would, in games), the best you could do on last gen was pitifully slow. No matter how good you are or how much time you spent optimizing.

NV2A- 932MPixels/1.9GTexel 29.1M triangles/sec 80GFLOPS
Xenos- 4GPixels/8GTexel 500M triangles/sec 240GFLOPS
7770- 4.3GPixels/37GTexels 990M triangles/sec 1.28TFLOPS
7850- 27.52GPixels/55GTexels 1.6B triangles/sec 1.75TFLOPS

Almost everyone I have heard states that the goal is to place a 7770 in the APU for the 720.

Again, raw numbers don't tell the full story. Those Xenos FLOPS are (like the NV2A FLOPS) Vec4+1 flops. Or, you can get actual full throughput only on loads where you have 4 identical ops per pixel per cycle. For geometry, this is often close enough. For anything else, we are talking about 30% typical per-pixel utilization. In GCN, the flops are scalar. Typical per-pixel utilization? 100%.

(There's also drops in utilization because in both Xenos and GCN you have to handle pixels 16 at a time, but that should be equal for both of them.)

What's worse, that doesn't take into account the rather large *reduction* of FB bandwidth by dropping eDRAM.

It's not like anything could actually use the full FB bandwidth. It was mostly a marketing number, with the real usable bandwidth being roughly double the GDDR3 bus.

Do take in account that the GCN series is a lot more bandwidth-efficient than the Xenos. It has significant amount of caches at all levels, and uses then efficiently (first AMD gpu that stores texels compressed in caches).

If you to use the 7850 numbers, then we are at comparable overall upgrades(roughly equal on wins and losses) but pushing Fermi die sizes

I don't think you understand how small Jaguar is. The whole point is that you can bolt 4 to a 7850 and *not* be anywhere near fermi die sizes.

and requiring insanely expensive bandwidth.

The big advantage of DDR4 is that it will be really cheap. To this date, consoles have always used expensive boutique ram. DDR4 is exciting because it will significantly cheaper per chip than what consoles are used to. This gen, the only real limit on the width of the RAM bus is that it places a lower bound on the possible size of the chip, not cost.

Cell is 115mm squared at 45nm, not sure where you got your information from, but if an eight core processor at 115mm on a 45nm build process is what you consider bad, I would *love* to see what you consider good.
Cell is not even close to what I'd call a 8 core processor. If you try to treat it as one, the single DMA system will grind it to a halt. If you want to compare Cell with it's peers, go have a look at the Tilera thingies -- they are roughly comparable and you can now get 8 of their cores in something like quarter of that space.

Because PC parts hit a power wall, the overarching theme of the past few generations has been utilization of resources as opposed to having as much of them as possible. The flops per CU has dropped in the last two new radeon generations -- while the real power per CU has gone up.

The last gen consoles were in basically all ways the opposite of this -- they packed a lot of raw punch, but now matter how much you tried, there's no way you could ever use most of it. This makes the numbers look bleak on paper, but to make accurate comparisons you have to take in account that a next-gen FLOP will, whether it's in the GPU or CPU, be worth several times what a last-gen FLOP was.
 
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Arzachel

Senior member
Apr 7, 2011
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No chance. The 7770 consumes that much power on its' own, also what type of eDRAM are using to hit 300mm? My figures are over 200mm without touching the CPU cores or any of its' cache at all.


The 7770 doesn't break 80W even under Furmark, strip the memory and you won't break 100W even with a 18-35W CPU on the die. And without the memory bus a ~40mm^2 CPU will barely increase the die size over a discrete 7770.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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Of course, increased memory to allow for larger areas, more powerful CPUs for better AI/physics etc(or GPGPU for physics). The gamers that buy the 360 and PS3, for the most part, don't care about stupid gimmicks. If MS and Sony try to go head to head with Nintendo on dumb control gimmicks they are going to lose, and lose badly.

Of course they care about innovative interfaces (or "stupid gimmicks", as you like to call them). How else do you explain Kinect being the most successful launch of all time, and that it is now pushing 20mil sales?
 

psoomah

Senior member
May 13, 2010
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Of course they care about innovative interfaces (or "stupid gimmicks", as you like to call them). How else do you explain Kinect being the most successful launch of all time, and that it is now pushing 20mil sales?

15 million very happy moms that no longer have to deal with broken, underfoot, fought over and lost controllers.
 

Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
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Cell is 115mm squared at 45nm, not sure where you got your information from, but if an eight core processor at 115mm on a 45nm build process is what you consider bad, I would *love* to see what you consider good.
MS/ATI were there, first. By any definition that would allow a Cell to be called 8-core, the XB360 already has 51.
 
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Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
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Cell is more like 1 powerpc core, and then 7 co-processors than really an 8-core processor. Without delving in to it, think of it like 1 powerful core and then 7 very weak, subordinate cores that rely on the main core for all their I/O.

The 360 proc is actually 3 of the more powerful powerpc cores (slightly modified) glued together.