PREDICTION: Microsoft will lose hard on this generation.

[Arkaign]

I'm not so set on the idea that WiiU is finished. I do think that it needs to come down to $199 and have the biggies out for it to be a hit, but I think they can remain a vibrant niche player, and be profitable. They need :

REAL Zelda game, not a rehash
REAL Mario game, ala Mario 64
Smash (on the way)
Metroid (will be done after DK, bleh)
Kart (on the way)

I don't ever see them surpassing PS4, and maaaaybe not even Xbone, but I also don't see them utterly collapsing with it either.

I do think the tablet thing was a mistake. They could have put those $ into making it more powerful and less expensive at the same time. Having an cart or something that made a DS/3DS into the controller via wifi would have been the way to go to even attempt the tablet thing.

 

[cmdrdredd]

I think Microsoft's real problem is not the DRM. Its the 24 hour phone home online connectivity and mandatory kinect. Microsoft was the first tech company to go along with the PRISM domestic spy program the NSA cooked up all the way back in 2007 by allowing unfettered government access to their servers and the personal info and emails of everyone who uses Microsoft services. This is front and center in national news. People all over the country have a renewed interest in privacy and Microsoft is on top of the list for offenders really.

 

[erwos]

The Wii U is DOA if Nintendo keeps the $350 price point. That much is pretty clear.

If they dropped it to $200 and let you play downloaded DS/3DS games on the tablet, that would probably be enough to sell enough to not be considered a dismal failure. Whatever they do, they've got to add value to it, though; the line-up is still disappointing, and the tablet feature is dramatically under-utilized.

I think Microsoft's real problem is not the DRM. Its the 24 hour phone home online connectivity and mandatory kinect.

I'd say it's more the 24hr phone home plus the uncertainty revolving around used games and rentals. If they turned around and said, "hey, phone homes are every two weeks, we PROMISE to put out a firmware disabling it if we ever don't want to support it further, and we'll force publishers to allow used game resale"... well, that would probably do the trick. You're never going to get rid of the phone home completely; all of the genuinely neat and beneficial stuff they allow you to do depends on it.

 

[dagamer34]

Anyone calling the PS4 a winner right now is being extremely shortsighted. I think every gamer thought the Wii was complete and total crap because it didn't have HD graphics and Nintendo was going off the deep end. Instead, it sold the most number of consoles this generation (most for Nintendo ever), sold a ton of games, and made Nintendo TONS of money.

It is a mistake to think that catering to the hardcore gamer is the only way to win in this market, it's not what made the SNES, PS1, PS2, DS, or Wii successful. In fact, systems that HAVE catered to the hardcore gamer had terrible sales compared to the winner of that generation: Saturn, Xbox, PSVita.

 

[purbeast0]

Anyone calling the PS4 a winner right now is being extremely shortsighted. I think every gamer thought the Wii was complete and total crap because it didn't have HD graphics and Nintendo was going off the deep end. Instead, it sold the most number of consoles this generation (most for Nintendo ever), sold a ton of games, and made Nintendo TONS of money.

It is a mistake to think that catering to the hardcore gamer is the only way to win in this market, it's not what made the SNES, PS1, PS2, DS, or Wii successful. In fact, systems that HAVE catered to the hardcore gamer had terrible sales compared to the winner of that generation: Saturn, Xbox, PSVita.

you think that ms is catering to the 'casual' gamers and not the hardcore gamer? we must be reading different info about the x1.

and btw sales does not mean the console is a great gaming console.

 

[cmdrdredd]

The Wii U is DOA if Nintendo keeps the $350 price point. That much is pretty clear.

If they dropped it to $200 and let you play downloaded DS/3DS games on the tablet, that would probably be enough to sell enough to not be considered a dismal failure. Whatever they do, they've got to add value to it, though; the line-up is still disappointing, and the tablet feature is dramatically under-utilized.


I'd say it's more the 24hr phone home plus the uncertainty revolving around used games and rentals. If they turned around and said, "hey, phone homes are every two weeks, we PROMISE to put out a firmware disabling it if we ever don't want to support it further, and we'll force publishers to allow used game resale"... well, that would probably do the trick. You're never going to get rid of the phone home completely; all of the genuinely neat and beneficial stuff they allow you to do depends on it.

It seems like Nintendo may do what happened on the Wii. Every game relied on waggle until skyward sword came out at the end of the console's life. I hope that the gamepad for the wiiu doesn't get used as a mirror image of the TV for 5 years cause Nintendo takes too long to get real games going.

 

[Tweak155]

Anyone calling the PS4 a winner right now is being extremely shortsighted. I think every gamer thought the Wii was complete and total crap because it didn't have HD graphics and Nintendo was going off the deep end. Instead, it sold the most number of consoles this generation (most for Nintendo ever), sold a ton of games, and made Nintendo TONS of money.

It is a mistake to think that catering to the hardcore gamer is the only way to win in this market, it's not what made the SNES, PS1, PS2, DS, or Wii successful. In fact, systems that HAVE catered to the hardcore gamer had terrible sales compared to the winner of that generation: Saturn, Xbox, PSVita.

I agree about being short sighted, but it almost seems you're doing the same. Are you implying a console focused on "hardcore" gamers is only possibly mutually exclusive to other markets? I'm not sure I get your point.

Are you elluding to PS4 targeting hardcore gamers, and if so, what is it doing that it neglects other gamers (also how is it targeting hardcore gamers, by having less restrictions??)?

On paper PS4 is better right now, but in practice has yet to be seen. I'm on the waiting bandwagon if one exists.

 

[Tweak155]

you think that ms is catering to the 'casual' gamers and not the hardcore gamer? we must be reading different info about the x1.

and btw sales does not mean the console is a great gaming console.

Also this... I don't see "targeting" one way or the other. Any intelligent business would not limit their market, but target as many markets as possible if their product enables them to do so.

 

[RedRooster]

Replaceable/upgradable HDD
Region Free
$100 cheaper
Doesn't need to be online at all, much less phone home every 24 hours
Eye is an option, Kinect is shoved down your throat
Rentals available on one, not the other

Clearly identical options

...to the PS3, yes. How is Sony trying to innovate in the console gaming market, exactly?
It sounds to me like the PS4 is a PS3 with better graphics. Not a bad thing, but not exactly enticing.

 

[dagamer34]

I agree about being short sighted, but it almost seems you're doing the same. Are you implying a console focused on "hardcore" gamers is only possibly mutually exclusive to other markets? I'm not sure I get your point.

Are you elluding to PS4 targeting hardcore gamers, and if so, what is it doing that it neglects other gamers (also how is it targeting hardcore gamers, by having less restrictions??)?

On paper PS4 is better right now, but in practice has yet to be seen. I'm on the waiting bandwagon if one exists.

It's more marketing and bluster than actual hardware/software features, but that's a huge reason why someone picks one console or another, marketing. I'm of the opinion that these machines aren't gaming consoles anymore, they're living room PCs that just happen to play games. The Trojan horse is in full effect.

 

[gus6464]

...to the PS3, yes. How is Sony trying to innovate in the console gaming market, exactly?
It sounds to me like the PS4 is a PS3 with better graphics. Not a bad thing, but not exactly enticing.

Have you ever used the Kinect? It's basically a $100 paperweight on my tv stand right now. The Kinect 2 has to step it up to a 1000 to be worth a crap and the odds of that happening are slim to none. Kinect 2 is not worth gimping the xbone.

 

[diesbudt]

Ordinarily I would say Nintendo with its best selling handheld console would be fine, but Nintendo has way more competition in the handheld market than ever before. The WiiU is disaster and they have been severely undercut in the handheld market by tablets and smartphones.

They have no competition. They have their trump card Pokémon. That still brings plenty of cha-ching in.

 

[diesbudt]

you think that ms is catering to the 'casual' gamers and not the hardcore gamer? we must be reading different info about the x1.

and btw sales does not mean the console is a great gaming console.

MS even said in an interview before E3 that they were going to aim for a more overall audience and not the hardcore specific gamer market. So even they admit they are trying to cater to the "casuals" hoping that will boost sales being more than just a game machine.

 

[jdelrio22]

I opened a Wii U last night at home and fired up NSMBU

I honestly can't see why anyone would think of this console as dead.

The third party support is questionable, but the game I was playing last night was very fun.

 

[dagamer34]

I opened a Wii U last night at home and fired up NSMBU

I honestly can't see why anyone would think of this console as dead.

The third party support is questionable, but the game I was playing last night was very fun.

The problem has never really been Nintendo software, it's "Is it worth spending $300+ to play 4-5 $60 games over a 5 year period?" Because Microsoft and Sony's consoles have unwavering 3rd party support, the number of games you might be interested in buying over that period has always been far more than what you might pay for the console itself.

 

[KaOTiK]

To top it all off. Gamestop employees/managers have said they have 2-3x the number of PS4 preorders allowed next to the X1. Those yield problems we heard about with the X1 with the esram look like they are true. We knew that the X1 would sell out at first regardless, but now they will not be able to even produce that many systems.

Gamestop executives told Sony we will buy every PS4 you can make. The demand for the PS4 is increasing more and more.

 

[dagamer34]

Have you ever used the Kinect? It's basically a $100 paperweight on my tv stand right now. The Kinect 2 has to step it up to a 1000 to be worth a crap and the odds of that happening are slim to none. Kinect 2 is not worth gimping the xbone.

Lets do the radical thing of having you try it first, then I will be right there with you if it's crap.

 

[exdeath]

I opened a Wii U last night at home and fired up NSMBU

I honestly can't see why anyone would think of this console as dead.

The third party support is questionable, but the game I was playing last night was very fun.

The problem is $400 for one game...

 

[gus6464]

Lets do the radical thing of having you try it first, then I will be right there with you if it's crap.

So you think MS made Kinect 2 THAT much better than Kinect 1? Kinect 1 hasn't been out that long but I guess we shall see.

 

[BeaviSKY]

So you think MS made Kinect 2 THAT much better than Kinect 1? Kinect 1 hasn't been out that long but I guess we shall see.

I have a hard time believing it, but they (Microsoft) must. That's the entire hinge of this next gen matchup. If Kinect 2 isn't light years beyond Kinect 1, XB One is toast.

Microsoft must think that it is. Because they're essentially betting everything on it (as Nintendo did with Wii)

I'll just stand by and wait to see what it actually does before I start weeping and gnashing.

 

[dpodblood]

The problem is $400 for one game...

This.

I am looking for a reason to pick up a Wii-U, but right now Nintendo simply isn't providing enough of a reason to do so. They need to

1) Release some of their core franchises on the system.
2) Come up with some new IP and release them too.

NSMBU and Zombie-U aren't enough to sell me the system, and I couldn't care less about 3rd party support. I only by consoles for exclusives, everything else is on PC.

 

[QuikWgn]

Gamestop=>

“Along with gamers all over the world, the GameStop team is eagerly anticipating the upcoming launch of the Xbox One this holiday season,” he told me via email. “We are excited about the immersive entertainment experience that the Xbox One offers, and the fact that the new console will support the unlimited trade-in and resell of pre-owned games, which is something our 30 million PowerUp Rewards members have told us they want. We will continue to work with Microsoft and publishers to maintain a seamless transfer of pre-owned games, and enable a smooth transition to this exciting new generation of consoles. We believe GameStop is primed and ready to deliver this new console to our customers.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngau...mless-transition-of-xbox-one-used-game-sales/


Will publishers stop the sale of used games?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/06/09/analyst-publishers-wont-block-used-games-much/

I have a sneaking suspicion that if you look at all the "can'ts/won'ts" people said about the XBL/360, like it'll never have IE/Browser support and the XBL subscription model would fail and apply them to the X-Bone you can easily see that some of the foresight in the digital distribution model/set-top tv box has a high probability to pay off. I can assure you that cable companies will be moving towards IPTV. They have already cut the deals wth the NFL for the NFL Redzone/Madden/Fantasy football integration, and exclusive X-Bone features for Madden as well.

If you see how these types of partnerships (along with the fact (AND IT IS A FACT) that the Cable Co's are in negotiations to subsidize the X-Bone for HBOgo/SHO2go/OnDemand etc)) there is far more room to grow the brand under the X-Bone platform than the PS4. Look at how the usage patterns have changed since the original PS3/360 when they were just a 'game console' w/a multiplayer component & friendslist/chat and people buying PS3's because it was as cheap as a standalone blu-ray, and where it ended up with UFC/WWE/HBO/HULU/REDBOX/NETFLIX/XfinityOnDemand etc. Then look another 5-6 years into the future and see how Google fiber, WiMax, IPTV etc are going to change the landscape and you can see the possibilities.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Gamestop=>

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngau...mless-transition-of-xbox-one-used-game-sales/


Will publishers stop the sale of used games?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/06/09/analyst-publishers-wont-block-used-games-much/

I have a sneaking suspicion that if you look at all the "can'ts/won'ts" people said about the XBL/360, like it'll never have IE/Browser support and the XBL subscription model would fail and apply them to the X-Bone you can easily see that some of the foresight in the digital distribution model/set-top tv box has a high probability to pay off. I can assure you that cable companies will be moving towards IPTV. They have already cut the deals wth the NFL for the NFL Redzone/Madden/Fantasy football integration, and exclusive X-Bone features for Madden as well.

If you see how these types of partnerships (along with the fact (AND IT IS A FACT) that the Cable Co's are in negotiations to subsidize the X-Bone for HBOgo/SHO2go/OnDemand etc)) there is far more room to grow the brand under the X-Bone platform than the PS4. Look at how the usage patterns have changed since the original PS3/360 when they were just a 'game console' w/a multiplayer component & friendslist/chat and people buying PS3's because it was as cheap as a standalone blu-ray, and where it ended up with UFC/WWE/HBO/HULU/REDBOX/NETFLIX/XfinityOnDemand etc. Then look another 5-6 years into the future and see how Google fiber, WiMax, IPTV etc are going to change the landscape and you can see the possibilities.

Usage patterns changed cause the games got stale and MS had no good exclusives for a long time.

Just like people using the ps3 as a blu-ray player for lack of games. Once Sony rolled out the god of war and uncharted games, sales rocketed up and eventually overtook the 360.

 

[purbeast0]

Gamestop=>

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngau...mless-transition-of-xbox-one-used-game-sales/


Will publishers stop the sale of used games?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/06/09/analyst-publishers-wont-block-used-games-much/

I have a sneaking suspicion that if you look at all the "can'ts/won'ts" people said about the XBL/360, like it'll never have IE/Browser support and the XBL subscription model would fail and apply them to the X-Bone you can easily see that some of the foresight in the digital distribution model/set-top tv box has a high probability to pay off. I can assure you that cable companies will be moving towards IPTV. They have already cut the deals wth the NFL for the NFL Redzone/Madden/Fantasy football integration, and exclusive X-Bone features for Madden as well.

If you see how these types of partnerships (along with the fact (AND IT IS A FACT) that the Cable Co's are in negotiations to subsidize the X-Bone for HBOgo/SHO2go/OnDemand etc)) there is far more room to grow the brand under the X-Bone platform than the PS4. Look at how the usage patterns have changed since the original PS3/360 when they were just a 'game console' w/a multiplayer component & friendslist/chat and people buying PS3's because it was as cheap as a standalone blu-ray, and where it ended up with UFC/WWE/HBO/HULU/REDBOX/NETFLIX/XfinityOnDemand etc. Then look another 5-6 years into the future and see how Google fiber, WiMax, IPTV etc are going to change the landscape and you can see the possibilities.

both were good reads, thank for the links!

 

[QuikWgn]

Usage patterns changed cause the games got stale and MS had no good exclusives for a long time.

Just like people using the ps3 as a blu-ray player for lack of games. Once Sony rolled out the god of war and uncharted games, sales rocketed up and eventually overtook the 360.

True but all the 'new' things the PS3/360 consoles gained were on platforms where these type of things were after thoughts. For all intents and purposes fom the Sony press other than tacked on apps like Hulu/NetFlix they have no actual future proofed application support built in and no interest in becoming the "centerpiece of your living room". The X-Bone has a REAL Windows kernel (albeit Windows 8) onboard and the ability to run VIRTUAL MACHINES plus HUGE volumes of cloud support from the Azure platform. This gives it a huge edge for the integration of emerging technologies.