Possible War w/ China.

[cytg111]

Have you guys never encountered a Trump in real life?
When pushed he is guranteed to pussy out, this is not some contractor-joe demanding a paycheck. In this I am confident.
If anything I am worried about him having a panic attack when push comes. Its like the saying; fear the amateurs.

 

[baydude]

China's military is not even close to the US and don't think it'll be even in 10 years

 

[desura]

China's military is not even close to the US and don't think it'll be even in 10 years

If there were ever a war, the USA even if it won would be forced to do regime change otherwise we would be back at war in a few years after the Chinese rebuilt.

It is the regime change which is truly daunting.

 

[Murloc]

China has no power projection beyond the one which it is building in the south china sea.

It has a refurbished soviet aircraft carrier.

The US can also choose to defuse and not fight at any time.

If there were ever a war, the USA even if it won would be forced to do regime change otherwise we would be back at war in a few years after the Chinese rebuilt.

It is the regime change which is truly daunting.

China has thousands of years of history as a centralized state, I don't think this would be an issue.

Also if there is a war with no regime change, there is no rebuilding because the growth that they enjoyed in the last decades cannot be repeated. This is why the risk of war is mostly overblown, nobody can afford it, especially over a few islands.

 

[desura]

China has no power projection beyond the one which it is building in the south china sea.

It has a refurbished soviet aircraft carrier.

The US can also choose to defuse and not fight at any time.


China has thousands of years of history as a centralized state, I don't think this would be an issue.

Also if there is a war with no regime change, there is no rebuilding because the growth that they enjoyed in the last decades cannot be repeated. This is why the risk of war is mostly overblown, nobody can afford it, especially over a few islands.

China is currently building several aircraft carriers. I believe they plan on having 6-7 in the coming decades, enough to challenge the US fleet.

I believe that an occupation of China would be more like Iraq than Japan. Japan is quite the unique case because of the societal unity provided by the emperor. The Chinese would be much more fragmented and harder to control. The Japanese belief in animism probably also plays a role in their unity, while the Chinese believe in nothing and so are much more nihilistic overall.

Any war in Asia would also make all of our goods exponentially more expensive, e.g. say goodbye to laptops under $4k. So yes, the US could win a short sharp war, just like how it could always defeat the Vietcong in combat, but the required occupation would be impossible.

 

[JEDIYoda]

In this thread: americans who lack the basic self-awareness that they've been the ones starting all the actual wars now for quite some time.

Who said an idiot is born once a day???

 

[Jhhnn]

Trump doesn't have the political capital for a war with China over some islands in their backyard that Americans can't even locate on a map.

Agreed. OTOH, he may not realize that.

It's interesting that Tillerson should take such a stance over an area that supposedly has no oil. Why else would we care? It's not like the Chinese will claim sovereignty over the sea between the mainland & the Spratlys any more than we do over the ocean between California & Hawaii.

I figure they're talking shit for domestic consumption, chest beating. The problem with that is in believing one's own bullshit.

 

[bshole]

There are more people in China to die. Just a few attacks on their infra-structure and starvation and disease will overtake them quickly. We will sink their fishing fleet, destroy their Harbors, blow up their factories, and bomb their offensive Coal Fired Power Plants.

A war with China Might be tough, but we know where their high speed long range missiles are located. It would be a messy and costly war, but how well will communists fight for their country? Parts of China Might even revolt.

The lunacy above is the reason why it is an existential threat to humanity to let neocon chicken hawks anywhere near the keys of power They are always in full fantasy mode about doing some real killing against nations that can actually fight back. Bombing helpless 3rd world nations is simply not enough for them. They want more dead people... especially dead American soldiers.... so they can play the patriot.

 

[Grooveriding]

Yup. You read some of these posts and realize just how stupid and deluded some of these people are playing armchair war strategists. China has nukes and can incinerate large portions of the US. Any sort of military engagement with a nation that has ICBM nukes is insanity. Push them in a corner or create a situation they feel they are helpless in and they could very well fire them off.

I think for that reason alone you will never see military engagements between two nuclear armed powers anymore. It's pure insanity unless you want to see civilization decimated. I think this is also why you see nations try to develop and obtain nuclear weapons, it's an insurance policy against warmongering from the west. Besides, currently America has only been in the habit of using their military to curbstomp third world countries that can't defend themselves, not engage nations that can effectively fight back.

Though I would say that with the US now under the Turnip, the world has never been at greater risk of a nuclear exchange than it ever has been before. Particularly when you obviously have a significant portion of the country addled enough that they'd support that sort of insanity.

 

[norseamd]

In this thread: americans who lack the basic self-awareness that they've been the ones starting all the actual wars now for quite some time.

Whats sad is just how true this actually is. On a site that shall not be named, there are multiple people crying about Bush launching a war, then simultaneously declaring we should ride over there and glass the Middle East. They lack any sense of reality or objectiveness. SAD!!!!!

 

[norseamd]

In my opinion, not in the slightest.

You really can't compare the two navies. The PLAN is a limited regional power, while we all know the US Navy is the largest, most experienced, and most capable navy floating around our plastic filled waters. A few things would happen:

1. Militarily, China is no match for the US, and I don't say that to beat my chest. It's just the raw truth. In combination with the US Air Force, it would not take long to silence the PLAN. The US would not need to land any major ground force to win this war whatsoever.
2. Economically, China is an export country. With a blockade in place, there would be an immediate Chinese economic crunch. Both parties would be hurt, but China would be hurt a lot, lot more.
3. Socially, China has a lot to risk from a potentially devastating war.

So in conclusion, I do not believe China would do anything to risk war with the US Navy. I do believe they have been testing the waters (no pun intended) to see where the "red line" is, but a frontal engagement with such a force would throw the PLAN 30+ years into the past. It takes many decades to build a blue water capable navy like that of the US, and ours was fast tracked because we had to. Until China can rival the US militarily, you won't see them stand their ground. They have way too much to lose to simply throw it all away.

Any war might send the Chinese Navy back decades, we would deal large destruction to their economy through blockade, and we would eventually win given that nuclear weapons arent used, but it would be hugely costly to America, and in no way would the Chinese Air Force be taken out of commission in any short length of time. I suggest you read up on A2/AD and the New Silk Road.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

We need an "end of the world" thread. The most popular number of days from Trump's inauguration is Doomsday.

 

[Murloc]

China is currently building several aircraft carriers. I believe they plan on having 6-7 in the coming decades, enough to challenge the US fleet.

I believe that an occupation of China would be more like Iraq than Japan. Japan is quite the unique case because of the societal unity provided by the emperor. The Chinese would be much more fragmented and harder to control. The Japanese belief in animism probably also plays a role in their unity, while the Chinese believe in nothing and so are much more nihilistic overall.

Any war in Asia would also make all of our goods exponentially more expensive, e.g. say goodbye to laptops under $4k. So yes, the US could win a short sharp war, just like how it could always defeat the Vietcong in combat, but the required occupation would be impossible.

why would there need to be any occupation at all?

As far as I know, the only US objective is to prevent further expansion of chinese control on the south china sea features and preserve taiwan independence in case China starts looking for a military "solution". You just need to sink boats and down airplanes to do that. There's no containment of communism policy anymore.

 

[norseamd]

occupation of China

HAHAHAHA ..... Oh wait youre .....

the required occupation would be impossible.

..... Somehow having a current streak of genius compared to your usual level of aptitude.

 

[norseamd]

why would there need to be any occupation at all?

As far as I know, the only US objective is to prevent further expansion of chinese control on the south china sea features and preserve taiwan independence in case China starts looking for a military "solution". You just need to sink boats and down airplanes to do that. There's no containment of communism policy anymore.

Those arent Trumps goals. You forget his whole presidency is based off racism. His "mandate" is to fuck up the Chinese, he doesnt actually care about supporting the Taiwanese. Why would he care about the Taiwanese when he doesnt care about the Japanese or South Koreans, who have been just as much of allies to America as the Taiwanese? Without the PRC, Trump would almost certainly be looking to extort the Taiwanese.

 

[Jhhnn]

why would there need to be any occupation at all?

As far as I know, the only US objective is to prevent further expansion of chinese control on the south china sea features

As if it's any of our business. We have no claim there.

and preserve taiwan independence in case China starts looking for a military "solution". You just need to sink boats and down airplanes to do that. There's no containment of communism policy anymore.

Despite Trump's bluster the Mainlanders have no intention of resolving their internal issues by force of arms. So long as the Taiwanese hold to the One China policy so will they. It's rally immaterial to the Spratlys dispute.

 

[desura]

why would there need to be any occupation at all?

As far as I know, the only US objective is to prevent further expansion of chinese control on the south china sea features and preserve taiwan independence in case China starts looking for a military "solution". You just need to sink boats and down airplanes to do that. There's no containment of communism policy anymore.

Because say hypothetically the USA defeats the Chinese Navy in a hot conflict in the SCS. Or worse of worse, the Chinese mount a failed attack on Taiwan.

The Chinese would go apeshit. Their entire life purpose would be in tatters. Nationalism would go through the roof. You would get an Adolf Hitler there in just a few years and another war in a few years time.

So yes, following a hot conflict with China, regime change and occupation would be necessary.

 

[norseamd]

Because say hypothetically the USA defeats the Chinese Navy in a hot conflict in the SCS. Or worse of worse, the Chinese mount a failed attack on Taiwan.

The Chinese would go apeshit. Their entire life purpose would be in tatters. Nationalism would go through the roof. You would get an Adolf Hitler there in just a few years and another war in a few years time.

So yes, following a hot conflict with China, regime change and occupation would be necessary.

You know there are way too many variables at play to even predict something like that. You would probably see a fracturing of Chinese society if anything even close to that started to happen, maybe if see the PRC break up into multiple states, like they have often done in the past.

 

[preslove]

I'm 99% sure we won't get into a shooting war with China.

I'm 99% sure we will get into a trade war with china.

Buy your chinese manufactured goods now, buddies.

 

[desura]

You know there are way too many variables at play to even predict something like that. You would probably see a fracturing of Chinese society if anything even close to that started to happen, maybe if see the PRC break up into multiple states, like they have often done in the past.

I dunno, the United States expected Saddam to fall shortly after the first Gulf War. Fidel Castro held out for quite a while. The one thing that unites the Chinese is nationalism and their sob story national narrative has permeated their society since Tienanmen square.

And even should they fracture following a defeat, that is still a humanitarian and economic nightmare. The aftermath is pretty crazy. Problem with Neocons is that they act like the USA could do another WWII, but history doesn't work like that. Situations change and events are unpredictable. No one could have predicted in 1910 that Europe would go through this crazy civil war which in the end resulted in their being permanently diminished and the USA as the dominant power.

 

[Victorian Gray]

lest anyone forget

 

[theeedude]

US couldn't handle Viet Nam, couldn't handle Iraq, and couldn't handle Afghanistan. China? Time to get real. Maybe Grenada.

 

[norseamd]

US couldn't handle Viet Nam, couldn't handle Iraq, and couldn't handle Afghanistan. China? Time to get real. Maybe Grenada.

Insurgencies, including insurgency phases of a war like the Iraq & Afghanistan occupations, are different than traditional high-intensity warfare. Want to guess how the most powerful military in the 18th century was defeated by an ill-equipped band of farmers and merchants?

 

[NostaSeronx]

Obligatory revival because Trump vs Xi at the end of this week. (April 6-7 @ Southern White House)

China sees Trump as an obviously weak leader. So, get your conspiracy hats on. As the Trump the shrub screws this one for all of USA denizens.

America has lost the economic war with China. It is a pretty much given with the TPP gone. Time for a slow death of a thousand cuts.

 

[sportage]

Gee lets see here....
China isn't going to just stand by as N Korea is threatened then attacked by DT and the kids of DT.
I mean, the only voices DT will listen to are the voices from his creepy inbred kids.
And face it. THIS scenario is exactly why Putin so wanted DT to be president in the first place.
Oh yeah, their was a method to his madness.
Putin isn't so stupid, nor China or N Korea. The only big fat funny haired ignoramus in the room is DT.
And with all the Trump kids now holding positions in his administration, that exempts them all from the looming DT national military draft.
Some kid will need to put their life on the line for DT delusionary war, and it sure ain't gonna be any kid with the last name of Trump.
Putin is laughing his red commie ass off while China sharpens their nuclear warheads, and N Korea just itching for DT to take the bait.
The day when DT and his holy roller congress enacts a national draft, I suspect things will change for those Trump fans.
Their kids going off to defend the insanity of DT will wipe that smirk off their face.
Especially when they begin returning home in a pine box.