Possible War w/ China.

[Hayabusa Rider]

Gee lets see here....
China isn't going to just stand by as N Korea is threatened then attacked by DT and the kids of DT.
I mean, the only voices DT will listen to are the voices from his creepy inbred kids.
And face it. THIS scenario is exactly why Putin so wanted DT to be president in the first place.
Oh yeah, their was a method to his madness.
Putin isn't so stupid, nor China or N Korea. The only big fat funny haired ignoramus in the room is DT.
And with all the Trump kids now holding positions in his administration, that exempts them all from the looming DT national military draft.
Some kid will need to put their life on the line for DT delusionary war, and it sure ain't gonna be any kid with the last name of Trump.
Putin is laughing his red commie ass off while China sharpens their nuclear warheads, and N Korea just itching for DT to take the bait.
The day when DT and his holy roller congress enacts a national draft, I suspect things will change for those Trump fans.
Their kids going off to defend the insanity of DT will wipe that smirk off their face.
Especially when they begin returning home in a pine box.

Can't you rent a billboard or something?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Obligatory revival because Trump vs Xi at the end of this week. (April 6-7 @ Southern White House)

China sees Trump as an obviously weak leader. So, get your conspiracy hats on. As the Trump the shrub screws this one for all of USA denizens.

America has lost the economic war with China. It is a pretty much given with the TPP gone. Time for a slow death of a thousand cuts.

What we know of Xi is that he won't get sucked into the inane. Trump will play nice for two seconds then start boasting about himself, then into the superiority of The American Way and how he's largely responsible. Xi will look at him like Trump is a new kind of bug.

Trump will then bluster and make demands. Xi will be deciding if this bug represents a threat and will observe its natural behavior.

Trump will get frustrated and become petulant as he did with Merkel. Xi will note this behavior and others to evaluate the best "pesticide" for the problem. By that I mean how Trump can be manipulated by his own nature into actions for the benefit of China.

In the end a splendid day of golf will not be had.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

What we know of Xi is that he won't get sucked into the inane. Trump will play nice for two seconds then start boasting about himself, then into the superiority of The American Way and how he's largely responsible. Xi will look at him like Trump is a new kind of bug.

Trump will then bluster and make demands. Xi will be deciding if this bug represents a threat and will observe its natural behavior.

Trump will get frustrated and become petulant as he did with Merkel. Xi will note this behavior and others to evaluate the best "pesticide" for the problem. By that I mean how Trump can be manipulated by his own nature into actions for the benefit of China.

In the end a splendid day of golf will not be had.

The silliness of this topic aside, war with china would mean destroying fishing ports and some critical infrastructure (electrical generation, water purification) with a few well-placed cruise missiles, then hunkering down for two weeks for the population to revolt from starvation.

In actuality China will gain yet another upper-hand on the USA from an economic perspective by Xi out-maneuvering Donald's child-like petulance.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The silliness of this topic aside, war with china would mean destroying fishing ports and some critical infrastructure (electrical generation, water purification) with a few well-placed cruise missiles, then hunkering down for two weeks for the population to revolt from starvation.

In actuality China will gain yet another upper-hand on the USA from an economic perspective by Xi out-maneuvering Donald's child-like petulance.

I agree with the last part, but the main function of any government is to keep itself in power. That they are occasionally benign does not change this fact. If the US directly attacked the Chinese mainlaind then the Chinese government will save face and not allow themselves to be ousted by such means. That translates not into "hunker down", but "bunker down".

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I agree with the last part, but the main function of any government is to keep itself in power. That they are occasionally benign does not change this fact. If the US directly attacked the Chinese mainlaind then the Chinese government will save face and not allow themselves to be ousted by such means. That translates not into "hunker down", but "bunker down".

There wouldn't even be an 'ousting', there's absolutely no way the US could manage the overtaking of the Chinese government, with it's what, 1.5 billion citizens? The notion is ridiculous on its face. You MIGHT be able to create some futuristic apocalyptic fantasy where the US just glasses the whole country or something, assuming it didn't care about literally any other country (we're talking star wars imperials level of evil) but invading? Taking over the government? Just silly.

Regarding the hunker down part, I was meaning from a strategic standpoint, the country of China has a LOT of mouths to feed, you can throw that off balance real fast then just sit back and wait for the fires to start. If it got to that point, no bunkers would protect the government itself. That many people with sharp sticks could overthrow any government, or burn the country to the ground trying.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

There wouldn't even be an 'ousting', there's absolutely no way the US could manage the overtaking of the Chinese government, with it's what, 1.5 billion citizens? The notion is ridiculous on its face. You MIGHT be able to create some futuristic apocalyptic fantasy where the US just glasses the whole country or something, assuming it didn't care about literally any other country (we're talking star wars imperials level of evil) but invading? Taking over the government? Just silly.

Regarding the hunker down part, I was meaning from a strategic standpoint, the country of China has a LOT of mouths to feed, you can throw that off balance real fast then just sit back and wait for the fires to start. If it got to that point, no bunkers would protect the government itself. That many people with sharp sticks could overthrow any government, or burn the country to the ground trying.

Thanks for the clarification. You've presented a rational progress of calamity in China with which I agree. The problem is in making an assumption we could wait for the fires to start there, but I strongly believe we would be worrying about Judgement Day, without cyborgs of course. If China goes its leadership will take us by nuclear fire and they have that capability. We'll have survivors of course and naturally we'll retaliate. There will be survivors of course, but most will be worried about survival, not politics.

But as you say that scenario is not on the table. This is about global strategic moves, and Trump's vehicle driving his agenda is in fact the short bus.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Thanks for the clarification. You've presented a rational progress of calamity in China with which I agree. The problem is in making an assumption we could wait for the fires to start there, but I strongly believe we would be worrying about Judgement Day, without cyborgs of course. If China goes its leadership will take us by nuclear fire and they have that capability. We'll have survivors of course and naturally we'll retaliate. There will be survivors of course, but most will be worried about survival, not politics.

But as you say that scenario is not on the table. This is about global strategic moves, and Trump's vehicle driving his agenda is in fact the short bus.

Indeed. Wars between first world countries at this point (beyond proxy wars with 'brown people in the desert') would undoubtedly end in fire. Unfortunately, even a one-sided war with china where everything went right for us would lead to a humanitarian crisis the likes of which this world has never seen. Economies in the east would grind to a halt with an exodus of a population of that size, and would likely lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions (both native to China and external). The Syrian crisis has been bad enough, and that's with about 13.5 million. If China's population was dropped by 90%, you'd still have 130 million people (10x syrian refugees) to deal with.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Indeed. Wars between first world countries at this point (beyond proxy wars with 'brown people in the desert') would undoubtedly end in fire. Unfortunately, even a one-sided war with china where everything went right for us would lead to a humanitarian crisis the likes of which this world has never seen. Economies in the east would grind to a halt with an exodus of a population of that size, and would likely lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions (both native to China and external). The Syrian crisis has been bad enough, and that's with about 13.5 million. If China's population was dropped by 90%, you'd still have 130 million people (10x syrian refugees) to deal with.

Again I agree, but everything will not go right. There exists no system that anyone is aware of that will stop a Chinese nuke attack. Our estimates from earlier this decade are available online and they are between 45-65 and 240 warheads. Leading up to now it is probably wise to add perhaps a dozen to that number for ICBMS and perhaps a total of 300 warheads, but that's mostly speculation. Nevertheless the Chinese have MIRV capable delivery systems such as the DF-41 which can reach any point on Earth.

Let's make some assumptions which I think are not unreasonable. If the Chinese were to decide to launch then they will most likely keep some reserve so I'll go with 200 warheads deployed.

Let's also assume a failure to launch or other flight problems of 70, leaving 130 to strike. Further let's assume that some defense system takes out half of those, and round down for an even number of 60 warheads. Assume half of those are for military installations, but that's by no means certain.

Thirty warheads to strike civilian populations, thirty of our largest and most important economic centers. That would be every city from Las Vegas and up. I don't know what the combined populations would be, but even if one is far away the economy, transportation, communications, every modern national agency and service vanish.

We'd fare little better than the Chinese.

We would suffer beyond imagining.

Good thing that's not going to happen at least for the foreseeable future, eh?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Again I agree, but everything will not go right. There exists no system that anyone is aware of that will stop a Chinese nuke attack. Our estimates from earlier this decade are available online and they are between 45-65 and 240 warheads. Leading up to now it is probably wise to add perhaps a dozen to that number for ICBMS and perhaps a total of 300 warheads, but that's mostly speculation. Nevertheless the Chinese have MIRV capable delivery systems such as the DF-41 which can reach any point on Earth.

Let's make some assumptions which I think are not unreasonable. If the Chinese were to decide to launch then they will most likely keep some reserve so I'll go with 200 warheads deployed.

Let's also assume a failure to launch or other flight problems of 70, leaving 130 to strike. Further let's assume that some defense system takes out half of those, and round down for an even number of 60 warheads. Assume half of those are for military installations, but that's by no means certain.

Thirty warheads to strike civilian populations, thirty of our largest and most important economic centers. That would be every city from Las Vegas and up. I don't know what the combined populations would be, but even if one is far away the economy, transportation, communications, every modern national agency and service vanish.

We'd fare little better than the Chinese.

We would suffer beyond imagining.

Good thing that's not going to happen at least for the foreseeable future, eh?

All true, which is what MAD is pretty much all about. So many dominoes in play you simply cannot flick one over or the whole world system collapses at this point.

Now if we're talking non-physical? We've been in a constant economic, information, and now really, cyber-infrastructure war for the last 5-40 years (depending on which topic we're talking about). It's more nuanced than a bayonet to the face, but not by much.

 

[norseamd]

What we know of Xi is that he won't get sucked into the inane. Trump will play nice for two seconds then start boasting about himself, then into the superiority of The American Way and how he's largely responsible. Xi will look at him like Trump is a new kind of bug.

Trump will then bluster and make demands. Xi will be deciding if this bug represents a threat and will observe its natural behavior.

Trump will get frustrated and become petulant as he did with Merkel. Xi will note this behavior and others to evaluate the best "pesticide" for the problem. By that I mean how Trump can be manipulated by his own nature into actions for the benefit of China.

In the end a splendid day of golf will not be had.

I swear to god that Ive been wondering if with all the talk about how Putins such a powerful political genius, if Xi just might be the silent master whos 10 fold stronger.

 

[norseamd]

The silliness of this topic aside, war with china would mean destroying fishing ports and some critical infrastructure (electrical generation, water purification) with a few well-placed cruise missiles, then hunkering down for two weeks for the population to revolt from starvation.

In actuality China will gain yet another upper-hand on the USA from an economic perspective by Xi out-maneuvering Donald's child-like petulance.

Uh, you realize that pretty much nothing except maybe a few US Navy fleets with organic anti-air protection would be able to reach Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, or other surrounding areas until the unknown time the PRC did surrender?

That basically means absolutely destroying their economies in addition to whatever hurt you put on the PRC.

And might I add, theres a reason why the PRC is pursuing the New Silk Road, specifically to try to mitigate any damage from any naval blockade.

At this point however, the PRC is still extremely vulnerable to any loss of naval trade.

 

[agent00f]

I swear to god that Ive been wondering if with all the talk about how Putins such a powerful political genius, if Xi just might be the silent master whos 10 fold stronger.

Worth considering that people like Putin or Xi don't get into power only because millions of know-nothings voted for them.