Poll: Supply vs Demand of Xbox One consoles in launch window

[slugg]

What do you think? Do you think it will sell out and be hard to find like the 360? Do you think there will be tons of units on the shelves, like the original Xbox console? Somewhere in between?

Share your opinion. 🙂

 

[Doppel]

My guess minor oversupply or the next one worse case in both it and ps4. Still possible to preorder a release day ps4@ Walmart and I expect neither will be particularly short but I haven't read anything deeper on the matter.

 

[Dominato3r]

I picked meets demand because you can still find both consoles at the big retailers. I think Target and Walmart opened up in-store pre-orders a couple of weeks back.

 

[purbeast0]

both consoles are going to be artifically short on supply as console launches have been the past 20 years or so.

 

[exdeath]

XBOne should be plentiful assuming no yield issues.

PS4 likely sold out or hard to find for months.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Both hard to find with PS4 selling out more quickly on resupply is my guess. The demand for the PS4 right now is a bit higher and I think many people will be convinced to go with PS4 since it's popular. Things could change later into the future as software is fleshed out over the coming years.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Possibly a short-term minor under-supply as scalpers load up on consoles, followed by over-supply when they can't find enough suckers willing to be gouged.

It's going to be hard to find enough suckers willing to over-pay enough to cover eBay fees.

 

[mmntech]

It's very difficult to say. There doesn't seem to be the same level of excitement this time around as what I remember from last gen. Especially outside the hardcore gaming community.

I can't really remember how the 360 and PS3 did on their launches. Though I do recall substantially more buzz about them. The Wii was in a whole different ball game though. I think it was over a year before I saw one just sitting on a store shelf.

Ars had an article this morning about poll Ipsos conducted on the matter. 26% of those polled (gamers presumably) said they were planning on buying a PS4. Just 15% planned on buying an Xbox One. For the under 40 crowd, it's 41% and 26% respectively. Which of course omly confirms what we already knew. They conclude that the lower interest for the Xbone is mainly due to Microsoft's mixed messages about the console.

I think both consoles will sell out for the holidays, but you're not going to see prolonged shortages into 2014. You'll probably be able to buy them off the shelf by at least January.

 

[RedRooster]

I can't imagine the hardcore buyers won't buy everything available from Sony and MS in the first wave. The second wave will be the one that shows if the "normies" really want the system or if everyone is going to buy PS4s.

 

[blurredvision]

I can't really remember how the 360 and PS3 did on their launches. Though I do recall substantially more buzz about them. The Wii was in a whole different ball game though. I think it was over a year before I saw one just sitting on a store shelf.

From what I remember, the 360 wasn't easily available until about February. I was finally able to luckily snag a 360 in January by getting to Target at the right time, so it was still scarce then.

The PS3 was available in December, I remember seeing those on shelves just a few weeks after launch.

The Wii was pretty hard to find for at least the first year after launch. I remember working part-time at Gamestop in 2007 during the summer months and anytime we'd get Wii units in, they'd sell out within an hour.

 

[exdeath]

Possibly a short-term minor under-supply as scalpers load up on consoles, followed by over-supply when they can't find enough suckers willing to be gouged.

It's going to be hard to find enough suckers willing to over-pay enough to cover eBay fees.

Hmm /looks up recently sold PS4s.

$700-$400-$70 = $230 pocketed.

I might sell mine right before Christmas when prices will be highest. I pre ordered day one during the live E3 stream after Sony raped MS to vote with my wallet on DRM alone.

And I do want one since there will probably be nothing but dude bro shooters, sports, and racing games on Xbone again and I mostly play RPGs.

But there isn't a single PS4 (or Xbone) game that I absolutely must have even a year into launch. So I might let someone else have it and walk away with a few hundred extra bucks.

Might.

Kingdom Hearts and Final Fantasy being so far away... If there was a Tales game or pretty much anything Atlus/NIS/Xseed/NamcoBandai/Aksys/ etc due in less than a year from launch, all bets off, I'm keeping it.

 

[SaurusX]

Near perfect bell curve to the poll thus far.

 

[cmdrdredd]

From what I remember, the 360 wasn't easily available until about February. I was finally able to luckily snag a 360 in January by getting to Target at the right time, so it was still scarce then.

The PS3 was available in December, I remember seeing those on shelves just a few weeks after launch.

The Wii was pretty hard to find for at least the first year after launch. I remember working part-time at Gamestop in 2007 during the summer months and anytime we'd get Wii units in, they'd sell out within an hour.

I remember being able to get a 360 easily only because I checked every day. I am sure I could have missed out if I wasn't doing that. The ps3 I remember people talking about the price and not buying it for that reason. Until I got a few people hooked on blu-ray none of my friends bought it.

 

[exdeath]

PS3 was plentiful. I recall people standing in line at Gamestop trying to return like 5-6 at a time because they couldn't flip them. Gamestop said no, lol.

 

[cmdrdredd]

PS3 was plentiful. I recall people standing in line at Gamestop trying to return like 5-6 at a time because they couldn't flip them. Gamestop said no, lol.

Good for them. I would make them eat the cost too. They probably bought 5 that they could have sold to legitimate buyers that day instead.

 

[purbeast0]

PS3 was plentiful. I recall people standing in line at Gamestop trying to return like 5-6 at a time because they couldn't flip them. Gamestop said no, lol.

that doesn't make any sense. they didn't let people return unopened products with a receipt? i find that hard to believe.

i had a ps3 that i returned no problem cause i couldn't flip it.

 

[smackababy]

PS3 was plentiful. I recall people standing in line at Gamestop trying to return like 5-6 at a time because they couldn't flip them. Gamestop said no, lol.

Months after release they were plentiful. On release day, they completely sold out. There are youtube videos of people posting about how they have PS3s (a notable one was some guy posting his "I've got 3 PS3s; you've got 0"). It wasn't as though everyone that wanted a PS3 could get one on launch day.

The Xbox 360 was worse though. I couldn't pick my preorder up that morning, and went later. Well, they didn't get enough premiums for all the preorders, so I got a normal console + they gave me the HDD and a wireless controller.

 

[Arkaign]

Interesting between the lines stuff here :

http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/

Isolating next-gen game preorders :

BF4 PS4 255,241
BF4 XB1 134,457

COD PS4 259,511
COD XB1 254,404

WatchDogs PS4 130,716
WatchDogs XB1 78,681

Biggest Exclusives :

Killzone PS4 230,155
Zelda Remake WiiU 70,568
Forza 5 XB1 70,379

Hmm. You can't tell the whole story just in preorders, but from the surface this tells us that :

(1)- PS4 is generally dominating in preorders (most preorder games have about the same split as BF4).

(2)- COD fans predominantly played on 360, this seems to hold up the XB1 somewhat as many of the hardcore don't want to swap away from the MS controller and XBL. They are behind in preorders, but only ever so slightly with that title.

(3)- WiiU is slowly gathering steam. For Windwalker HD to be outselling the #1 exclusive XB1 title in preorder numbers is interesting.

(4)- If attachment rate is similar on a system/game ratio, then this seems to confirm that PS4 indeed has a fairly large preorder lead.

(5)- This tells us exactly nothing about actual supply of either console at launch.

 

[Subyman]

I think it will be a bit harder to find than the Wii-U was. First week will sell out, but I'm sure if you want one for Christmas you'll find one. PS4 might be harder to get. I haven't heard of any supply issues. AMD should be able to pump out the APUs, so I don't foresee any specific parts of each console that would be constrained (like the bluray lens with the PS3.)

I think the price will hurt it when there is a Wii-U for $250 and a shiny PS4 for $399 on the same shelf.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Months after release they were plentiful. On release day, they completely sold out. There are youtube videos of people posting about how they have PS3s (a notable one was some guy posting his "I've got 3 PS3s; you've got 0"). It wasn't as though everyone that wanted a PS3 could get one on launch day.

The Xbox 360 was worse though. I couldn't pick my preorder up that morning, and went later. Well, they didn't get enough premiums for all the preorders, so I got a normal console + they gave me the HDD and a wireless controller.

I will never understand the point of someone bragging about having multiples and someone else couldn't get one. I just don't understand the mindset I suppose heh. Also, does anyone remember that one guy who came outside after buying a PS3 in best buy and then opening it up in front of everyone and smashing it? What was the point of that? Might as well have donated $600 to a charity.

 

[Imported]

Hmm /looks up recently sold PS4s.

$700-$400-$70 = $230 pocketed.

I might sell mine right before Christmas when prices will be highest. I pre ordered day one during the live E3 stream after Sony raped MS to vote with my wallet on DRM alone.

And I do want one since there will probably be nothing but dude bro shooters, sports, and racing games on Xbone again and I mostly play RPGs.

But there isn't a single PS4 (or Xbone) game that I absolutely must have even a year into launch. So I might let someone else have it and walk away with a few hundred extra bucks.

Might.

Kingdom Hearts and Final Fantasy being so far away... If there was a Tales game or pretty much anything Atlus/NIS/Xseed/NamcoBandai/Aksys/ etc due in less than a year from launch, all bets off, I'm keeping it.

Somewhat in the same boat. I may end up selling it as there aren't any games I need to immediately play and I still have a backlog of 360/PS3 games to finish. If it doesn't sell then I'm fine with keeping it.

 

[KentState]

Somewhat in the same boat. I may end up selling it as there aren't any games I need to immediately play and I still have a backlog of 360/PS3 games to finish. If it doesn't sell then I'm fine with keeping it.

Same here, plus there isn't a must have on the launch list that I can't buy for the PC.

 

[JamesV]

For $500+, there is going to be a large over-supply.

While many hardcore gamers are going to want one, that is a good chunk of change, plus another $60 at least (for one game). Doubt many parents are going to go just buy one for the vast majority of young gamers either; $300 was stretching it with the last console.

 

[magomago]

pricing matters, even if its just 100 dollars.

 

[clok1966]

If any of the major poles are correct, there will be more XBone's then PS4.. the only area of the world where the XBone is even close is the US.. and its 60-40% there.. most major non US areas is closer to 75-25% with the PS4 being the more preferred of course those are just Poll's, it could easily change one way or another on games, how the hardware actually preforms, etc..

good news he XBone is supposed to be pretty much done Hardware wise.. so they should have time to make um, while not officially but rumors say the PS4 is still getting finalized.. so less time to build units.. Amazon had Xbone's (day one units) for sale for weeks when announced, the PS4 was sold out in 2 days.. there was some argument on this and i still have a screenshot of Xbones (day one) for sale a few days or a week after announced on amazon someplace.



so far MS has lowered its release day numbers by almost a million.. (rumors are not as good a yield as expected) while Sony has said there will be no shortage and has upped there release day numbers - PR? or truth, no way to tell only thing for sure is the MS lowering numbers (actual news release).

there where a few day one's popping up yesterday again.. so who knows.. I went PS4.. for one reason, I prefer the Sony Controller (been using it since psone days) the Xbone will be purchased later too im sure. All the BS MS tried pull (and failed) has me a bit angry with them.. like a bully who is called.. and changes it mind, its still a wanker for trying, im not forgiving so quick.