Pentagon war game forecasts U.S. would be pulled into a new war if Israel strikes Ira

[micrometers]

I have a gun, and since I heard you are trying to get one too, I'll shoot you to defend myself from you. Hm.

Right. Frankly, I don't see why Iran can't have more power in the region. I mean, they are the natural great civilization of the mid-east, and I think that having power would actually allow them to mature a little bit.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Defending themselves from the Iranian continue to attack her via their Arab proxies.

Nice bit of attribution, as if it actually holds water. Arab forces were attacking Israel long before they supposedly became Iranian proxies.

I'd expect attacks to intensify in the wake of any attack, if only as a show of solidarity, as does Dagan, formerly head of Mossad.

I'd also expect civil unrest to topple any arab govt that allowed ongoing Israeli overflights to attack Iran.

Israeli fanbois need to look past the ends of their noses, as does the Netanyahu govt.

True about the attacking.
However, all the Arab nations that border Israel, except one stopped the overt hostilities after '73.

That left the Palestinians (multiple groups) and Syria as the last holdouts. Both are financially and militarily supported by Iran and actively encourage to commit hostilities against Israel

 

[EagleKeeper]

Oh, please. IAEA inspections are ongoing, both scheduled & unscheduled, up to 24 per year per facility. They also have hundreds of sealed cameras in place which they can access at their whim.

We've been through this before.

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/08/increased-safeguards-at-natanz-what-does-it-all-mean.php

Your link is from 2009. It is what is intended to happen, not what is happening

Anywhere that you can show that there have been ongoing inspections since start of March of this year?

Iran prevented such.

 

[EagleKeeper]

And then what, considering that Iran will pursue Nukes in earnest, in very hardened facilities, free of IAEA constraints?

Like Iraq and Syria did?

Sometimes getting dope slapped may be enough to convince that it is not worth trying again.

 

[theeedude]

You can let a spoiled friend take the hits if that is your attitude. This was what happens after the fight starts


When the swings are at you, that is a different story.
Will you bob and weave or reach for the big stick at your back.

I think Iran will go for the big stick when Israel swings at it.

 

[Lemon law]

This is a US run war gaming, they set up straw men assumptions and knock straw men down.

IMHO, Iran has been war gaming the situation far longer, Iran knows that a single sortie of Israeli planes not armed with nukes will be not too hazardous, but Iran will pick their targets to retaliate against to inflict maximum damage to the Israeli international image.

Which in turn is likely to freeze any US involvement in any further Bozo Netanyuhu inspired stupidity.

Its Israel that is over reaching, and not Iran. If Israel wants to lose its positive US approval rating its spent 64 years building, its Israel's only real asset in the entire ballgame.

Iran is in a far better position to demonstrate they can shut down the Persian gulf for decades, and the turn the other cheek, and not do so. Meanwhile all oil importing nations will have a few weeks or a month or so to endure paying a thousand bucks per barrel of oil because of Israeli stupidity.

 

[EagleKeeper]

You can let a spoiled friend take the hits if that is your attitude. This was what happens after the fight starts


When the swings are at you, that is a different story.
Will you bob and weave or reach for the big stick at your back.

]I think Iran will go for the big stick when Israel swings at it.[/QUOTE]

What is the biggest stick that Iran has - economic? The question will be who will blink first - an attempt at shutting the Straights will also cripple Iranian output

 

[Lemon law]

What is the biggest stick that Iran has - economic? The question will be who will blink first - an attempt at shutting the Straights will also cripple Iranian output

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Silly EK, what does Iran have to lose? As Israeli inspired sanctions against Iran already cripple Iranian oil exports. As your other delusion is that the IAEA ever gets anything right.

If Israel sneak attacks Iran, I certainly hope Obama will stay the hell out of it. As the larger world will blame only Israel, Israel, and Israel IF THEY ATTACK FIRST.

 

[blankslate]

A war with Iran would result in more than "hundreds of American forces" losing their lives.

I've heard tell that a war with Iran would result in the price of Oil being raised to $130 a barrel or greater. enough to stop the tepid recovery in the U.S.

Now Israel isn't stupid. Let's see how much their leadership cares about the country that supplies much of their military equipment.

Our Carrier groups *are not* invincible...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html

There also is a question of how many supersonic (mach 2 at sea level) anti-ship missiles Iran has managed to procure from Russia in the past decade or so.

http://articles.businessinsider.com...419_1_anti-ship-defense-system-target-missile

There's enough information to make one want to be cautious instead of overconfident.

 

[Fern]

Originally Posted by Fern
I'm also doubting Iran could through the ship's defenses.
They will get through using some of the anti-sea missiles and suicide boats. This is because they will have the advantage of the first strike and improvised tactics that were not initially planned for

Fern

comments bolded

Well, that would disappoint me.

If Israel hits Iran and we don't know about it immediately I'll be disappointed. We should have those Iranian plants under watch by satellite 24/7.

As soon as we see it, our naval ships should be informed immediately. They should know an attack might come before the Iran side even gets orders to launch.

With all the advanced warning we should have and the prep time available (to anticipate what they might/can do), I'll be disappointed if the Iranians are successful in attacking us.

Fern

 

[Fern]

I've heard tell that a war with Iran would result in the price of Oil being raised to $130 a barrel or greater. enough to stop the tepid recovery in the U.S.

Now Israel isn't stupid. Let's see how much their leadership cares about the country that supplies much of their military equipment.

Maybe they see it as 'National destruction versus damaged world economy'.

If so, it's an easy, but unpleasant, choice.

Fern

 

[woolfe9999]

I'm not an expert in this, but the scenario posited in the war game seems less plausible than others I can think of. Suppose Iran decides to blockade the Strait of Hormuz rather than directly attack us militarily. We cannot let that stand, so we go in to remove the blockade by force. They then fire on us in return. That seems a more likely way that we could be drawn in, no?

 

[blankslate]

Maybe they see it as 'National destruction versus damaged world economy'.

If so, it's an easy, but unpleasant, choice.

Fern

Read the Economists and CSmonitor articles on Iran's Nuclear program.

According to the articles... Yes if Iran gets a nuclear weapon it will have an impact on the balance of power in the region.

However, since Iran's leadership is capable of figuring out what will happen if some terrorist group gets a hold of an Iranian nuke or if they themselves attacks Israel with one... it's virtually certain that they would not use one even if they had one.
Why? because they realize that even providing proof that they have developed one would bring international condemnation since Iran has signed the Non-proliferation Treaty. Not only that if they attacked Israel they are painfully aware that Israel does have the means to counter attack with many more nuclear weapons than Iran is capable of producing if they started this very minute.

Consider this, since India and Pakistan acquired Nuclear arms they have not used them. They're arguably as hostile to each other as Iran and Israel are.

 

[Jhhnn]

Your link is from 2009. It is what is intended to happen, not what is happening

Anywhere that you can show that there have been ongoing inspections since start of March of this year?

Iran prevented such.

Now you're just trolling. The Iranians didn't allow the IAEA to go fishing at at sensitive military base for a steel chamber supposedly used for nuclear trigger research over a decade ago. The allegation of its existence is pure rumor among some intelligence agencies, anyway, kinda like Iraqi WMD's.

If you're claiming that the Iranians stopped all inspections, you'd need to back that up. The IAEA has made no such claims, and it's reasonable to think that they would if it were true, if it were anything more than a dishonest propaganda construct on your part.

A great deal of what's going on is projection of motives onto the Iranians by both the US & Israel. Both nation's nuclear programs were about weapons production, and Israel's still is entirely. Each knows what they did, and can't imagine the Iranians doing anything else, even though there is no proof that they are.

Despite demands by the US & Israel, Iran has the right to what they're doing under the NPT that they signed way back when. And so long as they're not demonstrably doing anything forbidden by the NPT, there's no honest justification for military action.

 

[Lemon law]

Jesus Christ on a crutch, Israeli fan clubbers are really stupid. Iran has already said, they will retaliate against any nation that allows Israel to borrow its airspace. If the Saudis try the stunt, why would not Iran be justified in taking out Saudi oil tanker loading facilities. Such an Iranian strike would mean Saudi Arabia could not fuel a single oil tanker for a month. If Iraq allows it, Iran could do the same to Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil facilities five minutes after the First Israel bomb falls on Iran.

As for Israeli, target number one is likely going to be the Israeli nuclear plant at Dismona.

And thereafter Iranian honor satisfied, Iran can stand down, and watch the rest of the world dumps on Israel, the author of their misery asm they to gets to pay 1000 dollars a barrel for oil for a month or two.

Of course I don't know what Iran would do, but rolling over and playing dead is not a likely Iranian scenario.

 

[Freshgeardude]

A war with Iran would result in more than "hundreds of American forces" losing their lives.

I feel like Iran will either A. attack the US and drag them in, causing the US to do more damage than it has ever before against an enemy (think nuclear)

or B. ignore the US and focus on Israel and not drag the US in that way

 

[peonyu]

Israel is our only true friend in that region - we must stand with them against those who want to see the Jewish people annihilated. Hopefully it wont come down to war though, the US certainly doesnt need any more of those.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Now you're just trolling. The Iranians didn't allow the IAEA to go fishing at at sensitive military base for a steel chamber supposedly used for nuclear trigger research over a decade ago. The allegation of its existence is pure rumor among some intelligence agencies, anyway, kinda like Iraqi WMD's.

no he is not trolling --it is called being truthful!! So you want Iran to be able to tell the IAEA that certain areas are off limits? You actually expect anybody with a brain to accept IRAN`s word that they are not developing nuclear weapons? If Iran has nothing to hide, then nothing should be off limits!!

If you're claiming that the Iranians stopped all inspections, you'd need to back that up. The IAEA has made no such claims, and it's reasonable to think that they would if it were true, if it were anything more than a dishonest propaganda construct on your part. --

I posted links earlier in another thread stating the the IAEA has pulled completely out of IRAN....it is you who use reports that are 2 or 3 years old to try to back up who mis-information concerning thingsa that are happenning now...lolol

A great deal of what's going on is projection of motives onto the Iranians by both the US & Israel. Both nation's nuclear programs were about weapons production, and Israel's still is entirely. Each knows what they did, and can't imagine the Iranians doing anything else, even though there is no proof that they are. --

again if Iran has nothing to hide I don`t see what the problem is.....

Despite demands by the US & Israel, Iran has the right to what they're doing under the NPT that they signed way back when. And so long as they're not demonstrably doing anything forbidden by the NPT, there's no honest justification for military action. --

actually you are not sure about that and you know you will be the first person to crap in your britches when you wake to news that Iran has set of a nuclear weapon...

But then again you would probably jump for Joy if Iran set off a nuclear weapon and obliterated Israel.....

 

[JEDIYoda]

Oh, please. IAEA inspections are ongoing, both scheduled & unscheduled, up to 24 per year per facility. They also have hundreds of sealed cameras in place which they can access at their whim.

We've been through this before.

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/08/...t-all-mean.php

Oh please a 3 year old report..........hahahaaaaaa

That is NOT accurate when it comes to events of the last few months....
Again I will accept your apology for lying and mis-leading people concerning the IAEA and Iran.
If you are so sure of your assertions please post a link from say the last week or two stating that the IAEA has returned to Iran and is currently on Iranian soil and doing inspections......

All that has been said is that Iran should cooperate fully. Which they are not and I would bet until they do so that there will be no further IAEA adventures in IRAN!!

Please prove they have returned to IRAN....
None of your BS mis-interpretations.......just these words would suffice...as of march 21, 2012 IAEA inspectors have returned to Iran........that should be simple for even somebody like you...

 

[Jhhnn]

Yep- still spinning, still trolling. You linked nothing showing that the IAEA has been ejected from Iran's nuclear production facilities. You've linked nothing indicating that the agreed upon inspection regime is not still in place.

It's your accusation & has been all along, but you offer no evidence in support of it, because it's simply not true.

Lying? Time will tell who's been lying & spreading distortions, and it won't be me.

http://consortiumnews.com/2012/02/29/us-media-hypes-iran-inspection-flap/

 

[EagleKeeper]

Now you're just trolling. The Iranians didn't allow the IAEA to go fishing at at sensitive military base for a steel chamber supposedly used for nuclear trigger research over a decade ago. The allegation of its existence is pure rumor among some intelligence agencies, anyway, kinda like Iraqi WMD's.

If you're claiming that the Iranians stopped all inspections, you'd need to back that up. The IAEA has made no such claims, and it's reasonable to think that they would if it were true, if it were anything more than a dishonest propaganda construct on your part.

A great deal of what's going on is projection of motives onto the Iranians by both the US & Israel. Both nation's nuclear programs were about weapons production, and Israel's still is entirely. Each knows what they did, and can't imagine the Iranians doing anything else, even though there is no proof that they are.

Despite demands by the US & Israel, Iran has the right to what they're doing under the NPT that they signed way back when. And so long as they're not demonstrably doing anything forbidden by the NPT, there's no honest justification for military action.

Iran stated that they would open facilities to the IAEA.
The IAEA requested to look at the site.
Iran said no.
IAEA left.

You are stating that there are ongoing inspections.
News reports and statements from the IAEA indicate otherwise.

The non-inspections have the reports - where are your reports that the inspections are ongoing in March 2012

 

[Jhhnn]

You are stating that there are ongoing inspections.
News reports and statements from the IAEA indicate otherwise.

Cite the IAEA report stating that all inspections have ceased.

The rest, of course, is ass-backwards, the result of your having accepted the results of the spin machine as fact.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Yep- still spinning, still trolling. You linked nothing showing that the IAEA has been ejected from Iran's nuclear production facilities. You've linked nothing indicating that the agreed upon inspection regime is not still in place.

It's your accusation & has been all along, but you offer no evidence in support of it, because it's simply not true.

Lying? Time will tell who's been lying & spreading distortions, and it won't be me.

http://consortiumnews.com/2012/02/29/us-media-hypes-iran-inspection-flap/

News media reported last week that Iran had flatly refused the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to its Parchin military test facility, based on a statement to reporters by IAEA Deputy Director General, Herman Nackaerts, that “We could not get access.”

Now, however, explicit statements on the issue by the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA and the language of the new IAEA report indicate that Iran did not reject an IAEA visit to the base per se but was only refusing access as long as no agreement had been reached with the IAEA governing the modalities of cooperation.

Up to this point, there is no agreement; so Iran is refusing access.

The Iran rep is tap dancing hoping that people will not see through his statement.

What is the difference between refusing access and rejecting a visit.

Similar to "Come on by, I will show you my place."
Upon arrival "Look at the yard but you can not come inside the house."

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

These aren't leaked unintentionally. To do so risks execution. This isn't political gossip, this is treason. Consequently the most likely situation is that this is one of many scenarios and this is intended to send a message to Israel.

 

[blankslate]

I though Iran wasn't supposed to be crazy? The Progressives here say it all the time?

That's funny I didn't know that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was a flaming liberal... I didn't know that it was true of a former Mossad Chief either. Gee thanks for letting me know...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BUCTjZlp_I&feature=relmfu
^Former head of Mossad Meir Dagan says there is still time to try to negotiate non-violent resolution.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6YDTC0Rb4
^complete Meir Dagan interview.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnxYReNAjek
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvdmBtiIhIU&feature=relmfu
^Our highest ranking Military Officer, about Iran.

Remember in that scenario they have already been attacked by Israel... If a country gets attacked they're probably going to, oh I know know... counter attack? It's not like the U.S. is a neutral player in the middle east. So if they have gotten their hands on some of those "wonderful toys" from Russia then it won't be pretty if they're used... in this case the "wonderful toys" would be supersonic anti-ship missiles which are much harder to defend against than the subsonic Exocet missile.

Maybe they see it as 'National destruction versus damaged world economy'.

Israeli experts have said that Iran definitely knows what will happen if they even dare use (or allow to be used by a terrorist cell) a nuclear weapon on Israel. Israel is reported to have 75-200 nuclear weapons easily enough to turn Iran's populated area into mostly craters surrounded by glass, even if only a quarter of that arsenal is used. Perhaps not even that many.