Pentagon war game forecasts U.S. would be pulled into a new war if Israel strikes Ira

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,981
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Let us all hope and pray that this is not the case.
For all sides. This world has seen way to much war.

But if it does happen -- we need to remember that the other side will do anything to win. There will be no mister nice guy. They will be playing to win at all costs.
The only way to deal with somebody hell bent on winning no matter the cost is to adopt the same philosophy!!
If you try to be nice -- nice doesn`t win wars.

Let us hope and pray that cooler heads would prevail!!

Shalom!!


http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/pentagon-war-game-forecasts-u-pulled-war-israel-151532986.html

A classified Pentagon war game this month forecast that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would likely draw the United States into a wider regional war in which hundreds of American forces could be killed, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

The war games' results have "raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran," the Times Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker wrote.

Defense experts said the reported war games results are another attempted warning signal to Israel not to go it alone or risk harming relations with the United States.

"The apparent results of the war game reported by the Times suggest that it will be much more difficult than Israeli leaders assume to keep the United States out of the conflict," former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Colin Kahl told Yahoo News by email. "In the retaliatory spasm following an Israeli strike, the odds that Iranian actions and miscalculations could drag the United States military are substantial."

The two-week war simulation exercise—dubbed "Internal Look"—took place from Feb. 26 -March 3 at U.S. Central Command's headquarters at MacDill Air Force base, near Tampa, Florida, and at some overseas locations, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command said Tuesday. It was designed to "refine the command's battle rhythm and assess the staff's ability to coordinate and communicate on a modern battlefield," U.S. Central Command spokesman Col. John Robinson told Yahoo News in an email Tuesday.

The war game posited a scenario in which an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities led to Iran retaliating by striking a U.S. "Navy warship in the Persian Gulf, killing about 200 Americans," thus drawing the United States into the war, the Times' report said.

But some former officials urged caution when interpreting the war games' reported results. "It's clear the administration believes an Israeli strike on Iran would be extremely problematic," Ken Pollack, a national security expert at the Brookings Institution Saban Center for Middle East studies and a former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, told Yahoo News in a telephone interview Tuesday. "But it is not at all clear that the game demonstrates that an Israeli strike could produce American casualties." Pollack, who has designed and directed many such war games, explained that the designers of the game could simply have created an Iranian attack on the U.S. Navy ship as a method for testing America's control system to see if it could handle it.

The report on the war games comes as Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Benny Gantz is in Washington for consultations. Meantime, the State Department's lead international Iran nuclear negotiator, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, is in Brussels Tuesday for meetings with her international counterparts to prepare for upcoming high-stakes talks with Iran over its nuclear program, a State Department official told Yahoo News Tuesday.
 
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Linflas

Lifer
Jan 30, 2001
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Hopefully they will discover that striking a US warship at sea is easier said than done.
 

Dman8777

Senior member
Mar 28, 2011
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A war with Iran would result in more than "hundreds of American forces" losing their lives.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
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The other side will do its best to win because it would be the side that is attacked first at its home. When you are attacked at your own home, you do your best to win. If you are dragged into a war far away because your spoiled friend starts a fight, you can half @ss it and let them take a few hits to learn a lesson.
 
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EagleKeeper

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Much will have depended on how much the Iranian red side was allowed to skirt the guidelines.
 

cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
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A war with Iran would result in more than "hundreds of American forces" losing their lives.

True, it would also include tens or hundreds of thousands of Iranian forces losing their lives as well.

This is something we do not want.
 

EagleKeeper

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The other side will do its best to win because it would be the side that is attacked first at its home. When you are attacked at your own home, you do your best to win. If you are dragged into a war far away because your spoiled friend starts a fight, you can half @ss it and let them take a few hits to learn a lesson.

You can let a spoiled friend take the hits if that is your attitude. This was what happens after the fight starts


When the swings are at you, that is a different story.
Will you bob and weave or reach for the big stick at your back.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
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The war game posited a scenario in which an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities led to Iran retaliating by striking a U.S. "Navy warship in the Persian Gulf, killing about 200 Americans,"

So, Israel strikes Iran, and Iran responds not by striking back at Israel, but instead they attack a super power?

I though Iran wasn't supposed to be crazy? The Progressives here say it all the time?

Maybe it's just that the computer game thinks Iran is crazy?

I'm doubting Iran would attack us. I think the sim is wrong.

I'm also doubting Iran could through the ship's defenses.

Fern
 

EagleKeeper

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So, Israel strikes Iran, and Iran responds not by striking back at Israel, but instead they attack a super power?
Remember Germany attacked the US even though the US was supposedly neutral and Germany was at war with Britain

I though Iran wasn't supposed to be crazy? The Progressives here say it all the time?
Blindly lash out - guessing that the economic penalty will suppress the fire. Iran controls the economic hand at this point; leverage it for all it is worth. If smart, they will ignore US Naval forces and concentrate on the economic fight - targetting commerce

Maybe it's just that the computer game thinks Iran is crazy?
The intention of the war game is to look out of the box. Every time we look inside the box, since prior to WWII, we have gotten burnt - Only for the two Iraq wars did they plan accordingly. this is when the politicians let the military do what was needed.

I'm doubting Iran would attack us. I think the sim is wrong.
the sim is one of many options looked at

I'm also doubting Iran could through the ship's defenses.
They will get through using some of the anti-sea missiles and suicide boats. This is because they will have the advantage of the first strike and improvised tactics that were not initially planned for

Fern

comments bolded
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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It remains unclear how Iran would react to Israeli strikes, but the one thing that is clear is that the Netanyahu govt would want to draw the US into it. That would be the only way that what they start could possibly be finished in their favor. Israel lacks the might to end such a conflict quickly, and the stamina to outlast the Iranians.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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Seems to me Pentagon war game reports about sensitive current conflicts aren't routinely released for the public.

So, why was this released? I have to suspect it might have been politically intentional to discourage Israel from starting a war, reduce public support for a war? (Good if it was)
 

EagleKeeper

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Seems to me Pentagon war game reports about sensitive current conflicts aren't routinely released for the public.

So, why was this released? I have to suspect it might have been politically intentional to discourage Israel from starting a war, reduce public support for a war? (Good if it was)

During my time in service and dealing with war games (later in the career), they (results) were classified and never put out for public consumption. Much was treated as Need to Know when it went beyond the Area commanders and commands.


It remains unclear how Iran would react to Israeli strikes, but the one thing that is clear is that the Netanyahu govt would want to draw the US into it. That would be the only way that what they start could possibly be finished in their favor. Israel lacks the might to end such a conflict quickly, and the stamina to outlast the Iranians.
Israel does not need to worry about ending the conflict - Iran can not reach them outside of proxy or missiles.

Missile locations have been identified by both Israel and the US.
Israel will sent a few bombers against the sites that are a biggest concern.

Should Iran attempt to target US forces; those missiles sites will be targeted by either Tomahawks or bombing missions led by Wild Weasels.
 

EXman

Lifer
Jul 12, 2001
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Seems to me Pentagon war game reports about sensitive current conflicts aren't routinely released for the public.

So, why was this released? I have to suspect it might have been politically intentional to discourage Israel from starting a war, reduce public support for a war? (Good if it was)

So If Israel defends itself it is starting a war?

We should just let any crackpot have nukes too right. It is their right to have them.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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So If Israel defends itself it is starting a war?

We should just let any crackpot have nukes too right. It is their right to have them.

If Israel were to attack Iran tomorrow, they'd be "defending themselves" from what, exactly? Bad words?

Zionist crackpots already have nukes, btw...
 

EagleKeeper

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If Israel were to attack Iran tomorrow, they'd be "defending themselves" from what, exactly? Bad words?

Zionist crackpots already have nukes, btw...
Defending themselves from the Iranian continue to attack her via their Arab proxies.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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Israel does not need to worry about ending the conflict - Iran can not reach them outside of proxy or missiles.

If the intent is to deny the Iranians nuclear weapons capabilities, then attacking them won't solve that problem, but rather intensify it. Israel can't keep it up forever, and can't destroy targets buried under 250ft of granite with conventional weapons.

If attacked, Iran will eject the IAEA and begin work on nukes in earnest, and nothing short of invasion or obliteration by nukes will stop them. If they gauge their response correctly, they'll keep the US out of it & drive Israel into bankruptcy trying to suppress their efforts. It won't be the Six Day War, bet on that.
 

EagleKeeper

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All Israel has to do is set back the program 3-5 years.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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Defending themselves from the Iranian continue to attack her via their Arab proxies.

Nice bit of attribution, as if it actually holds water. Arab forces were attacking Israel long before they supposedly became Iranian proxies.

I'd expect attacks to intensify in the wake of any attack, if only as a show of solidarity, as does Dagan, formerly head of Mossad.

I'd also expect civil unrest to topple any arab govt that allowed ongoing Israeli overflights to attack Iran.

Israeli fanbois need to look past the ends of their noses, as does the Netanyahu govt.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
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So, Israel strikes Iran, and Iran responds not by striking back at Israel, but instead they attack a super power?

I though Iran wasn't supposed to be crazy? The Progressives here say it all the time?

Maybe it's just that the computer game thinks Iran is crazy?

I'm doubting Iran would attack us. I think the sim is wrong.

I'm also doubting Iran could through the ship's defenses.

Fern

Agreed.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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So If Israel defends itself it is starting a war?

We should just let any crackpot have nukes too right. It is their right to have them.

I have a gun, and since I heard you are trying to get one too, I'll shoot you to defend myself from you. Hm.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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