PC Sales down 14% in first quarter YoY

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JAG87

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
3,921
3
76
Well of the four things there, only the first is really easier to do on a device other than a PC.

No not true. The first like you said can be done from a myriad of devices. But today you have options for other tasks as well. Example:

Write a document in word. You needed a PC.
Nope, today you can do it on a Mac or even in Word Web App.

Do shopping on the net. You needed a PC.
You can do online shopping even from phone/tablet/mac/chromebook, you name it.

Be productive/do research. You needed a PC.
Same thing, you can do that on almost any device, productivity varies depending on what you work more efficiently with.

The PC is not by default a more productive platform unless you need raw processing power. When it comes to speed, the PC still has the best $/performance ratio, and that's where it continues to sell.

But the problem is, most consumers don't really need the speed. For $600, between the simplicity of an iPad vs the speed of an equivalent $600 PC, the consumer chooses the former. Combine that with the abortion that Windows 8 is, and that's why the PC is dying.
 

dma0991

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2011
2,723
1
0
W8 with its Modern UI tiles is a plausible cause for the decline. Just look at Windows phone, same smartphone form factor but yet it isn't popular. UI plays an important role in the desirability of the product and its definitely not getting attention with its flat and boring UI.

Being an intermittent user of W8, I will say that it isn't user friendly and it doesn't work well without a touch interface. Modern UI works but IMO the start button and taskbar should never lose focus even if the Modern UI overlays the desktop.
Wu7AYfu.png
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
I have 2 computers at home. About 2 years ago I built a new computer mainly because I was using my computer to watch Internet content because I disconnected my Cable TV/Satelite TV due to the cost. With the money I saved from not having to pay a cable bill, I could save enough to purchase a new computer. I built a new computer with an Intel Z68 motherboard and an i5 2500k, and Win7 64 bit. When I tested it with a HDTV it worked so well that we just used it for a simple sreaming HTPC, Surfing, E-mail and watching silly cat videos.

My old computer, is an IBM Socket 775 motherboard with an Intel E7200 with integrated 720p HD Video and Audio. Since it is an early Core 2 Duo Processor it still runs pretty well. I still run this computer with 32 bit Vista. I found that if you update with all the optional updates it runs almost as well as Win7 64 Bit.

I did download the the Win 8 Preview and I decided it ran too goofy and did not work well with Flash Video, which I use all the time. IE10 was still kind of experimental and flakey so I had to reload Vista 32 again. What a hassle that was to do all the updates.

I thought about a new ivy bridge system as an upgrade but there is a lot of new stuff coming out right now like Haswell and Revisions on SSD's so I am just waiting a little longer and saving up more money. You would think since video cards are using GDDR5 that we would have an improvement in DDR Ram by now. I want a computer mainly for Web Surfing and stuff, but I dont want to purchase a giant box that you cant move around. I was thinking the size of an Xbox360 that can be moved around with Wireless capabilities and an SSD like a crucial M500.

It also Looks like USB2 is also about to go away like the dinosaurs. I think some new haswell motherboard might just drop the USB2 interface and use adapters to use old USB2 devices.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,144
3,745
136
The reasons could be many:

1. Haswell's impending launch. The entire PC industry revolves around new Intel CPU launches, like it or not. Car models also see a fall in sales when an all new generation is about to be launched.

2. Windows 8 is despised by common consumers as well as business.

3. The time between upgrades is increasing for most consumers. And not enough new consumers from developing and poorer nations are being added into the global pool.

4. Economic insecurity. People would rather save or invest their cash than 'splurge' on new PC when existing 1-5 year old PC is adequate for browsing, consuming audio-video media, office work and casual gaming.

So no major cause for alarm as yet. However, if the market continues to shrink quarter-after-quarter for the entire year even after Haswell's launch, Intel might just have to learn to live with less than 50% profit margin. Poor them.


Really good points here. Especially when you combine them into the average computer buyer's thought process. "Hmm I really don't need a new PC as my current one seems to be running fine, and I've heard Windows 8 is difficult to use, plus I really don't need to spend the money right now."

Done and done. You hit the nail on the head.
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
I think the Govt should encourage the computer industry to make smaller computers. Unless you are a gamer a computer could be shrunk down to about 1/3 or 1/4 the size of what it is now. If you get rid of the Optical drive and the bulky power supply a computer can be quite small.

To me a big boxy computer is just a giant eco-disaster.
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
I think the Govt should encourage the computer industry to make smaller computers. Unless you are a gamer a computer could be shrunk down to about 1/3 or 1/4 the size of what it is now. If you get rid of the Optical drive and the bulky power supply a computer can be quite small.

To me a big boxy computer is just a giant eco-disaster.

That new concept of yours already exist, they are called laptops/netbooks and they are already more than fast enough for non-gamers.
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
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No not true. The first like you said can be done from a myriad of devices. But today you have options for other tasks as well. Example:

Write a document in word. You needed a PC.
Nope, today you can do it on a Mac or even in Word Web App.

Do shopping on the net. You needed a PC.
You can do online shopping even from phone/tablet/mac/chromebook, you name it.

Be productive/do research. You needed a PC.
Same thing, you can do that on almost any device, productivity varies depending on what you work more efficiently with.

The PC is not by default a more productive platform unless you need raw processing power. When it comes to speed, the PC still has the best $/performance ratio, and that's where it continues to sell.

But the problem is, most consumers don't really need the speed. For $600, between the simplicity of an iPad vs the speed of an equivalent $600 PC, the consumer choose the former. Combine that with the abortion that Windows 8 is, and that's why the PC is dying.

Well, I consider a Mac a "PC" in that the form factor is the same, it is not a tablet or smartphone. As the last 3 uses, yes, you can do them on a tablet or smartphone, but you can do it faster on a laptop or desktop with a real copy of Office and an mouse and keyboard. As for the PC not being more productive, that is simply not true. I cant see us converting our 1200 subject access data base and scheduling software to a tablet running open office.
 

geniusloci

Member
Mar 6, 2012
84
0
0
It also Looks like USB2 is also about to go away like the dinosaurs. I think some new haswell motherboard might just drop the USB2 interface and use adapters to use old USB2 devices.

Curious as to why you adapters would be needed. USB2 devices plug right into a USB3 port.
 

geniusloci

Member
Mar 6, 2012
84
0
0
That new concept of yours already exist, they are called laptops/netbooks and they are already more than fast enough for non-gamers.

I think he's really referring to the mac mini / Intel NUC size. I'm of the opinion that the Intel NUC is the PC of the future for most desktop users. Power users will end up buying really expensive desktops from whoever can stay in business to do it.
 

dma0991

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2011
2,723
1
0
If you get rid of the Optical drive and the bulky power supply a computer can be quite small.
A PC that doesn't need a PSU. :hmm:

The reason its bulky is due to the power requirement. You wouldn't be able to run a discrete/multi/quad GPU setup just by using a PSU the size of a standard laptop power brick(90W). Government intervention is unnecessary as we already have Intel NUC form factors in the market.
 

AnandThenMan

Diamond Member
Nov 11, 2004
3,991
627
126
Edit: not that there is not plenty of blame to go around. Microsoft basically gave desktop users the finger by stubbornly refusing to leave the start button intact in what otherwise would have been a step forward for mobile use.
To me the removal of the Start button is a small issue compared to how MS really gave a big FU to desktop users. They came up with the Metro themed system (an incredibly poor attempt at trying to be Apple IMO) and then cobbled together the traditional desktop aspect as an afterthought. For desktop use, MUI brings nothing innovative, in fact to me it's just more annoying. More steps to do the same thing. Everything feels less polished, less thought out. I know this polarizes people but that is how I see it. Going back to Win7 after using Win8 feels like an upgrade, both visually and functionally.

Yes there are people that say, well when Vista came out people stubbornly stuck to WinXP etc. and when Vista evolved into Win7, it was all good. But I don't see Win8 evolving in the same way, to make it a great desktop OS it will have to go back to the roots of what a desktop OS actually is, and MUI is not IMO. I find it a complete joke honestly.

I'm not a MS hater at all, but I just can't believe that they didn't do a better job with Win8. The back end stuff is good, it's a fast OS with lighter resource use for sure.
 

fixbsod

Senior member
Jan 25, 2012
415
0
0
QFT!!! It's like Microsoft WANTS to kill off the desktop with the horrible POS called Windows 8. I see no reason to ever upgrade past W7 at this point. MS has also shot themselves in the foot -- they can either completely admit defeat and roll out a true W8 or continue down this losing path. I'm split 50/50 on guessing what MS will do -- they usu just continue down the losing path as you see with a lot of their loser crap -- I'm looking at you MS Zune, Ribbon toolbar, etc.

This is true. No-one wants a new PC with Windows 8, unless it's a touch-enabled laptop.

It's the albatross that's dragging down the entire PC market.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,587
10,225
126
I think the Govt should encourage the computer industry to make smaller computers. Unless you are a gamer a computer could be shrunk down to about 1/3 or 1/4 the size of what it is now. If you get rid of the Optical drive and the bulky power supply a computer can be quite small.

To me a big boxy computer is just a giant eco-disaster.

Have you heard about "Thin Mini-ITX" form-factor systems? They are like ITX, only thinner, and they all use a laptop power adaptor to power them, no more bulky ATX power supplies.
 

greenhawk

Platinum Member
Feb 23, 2011
2,007
1
71
The small formfactor is a plus for a lot of average users I suspect, but personally, going back to the power pack / wall wart style of power supplies is not that smart. Moving equipment that need a power pack to run is far from portable or compact.
 

meloz

Senior member
Jul 8, 2008
320
0
76
poor acer...:eek:

Screen-Shot-2013-04-10-at-6.14.56-PM-640x480.png

Is there room for five major brands in the market? Most of their product lineup and manufacturing quality (or lack of) is so similar to each other these days it does not matter which brand a desktop or notebook is sold under. Time for consolidation.

But we should also not ignore that "Others" gained marketshare during this period. Very telling. These other brands are -for the most part- all about cheap PCs. I see a megatrend emerging: these big brands will continue to suffer and lose marketshare until their lineup consists mostly of $200-$500 products.

As awesome as Broadwell and Skylake will be, you cannot force consumers to buy those >$200 CPUs when a $50 IVB Celeron will meet their requirement.
 

fixbsod

Senior member
Jan 25, 2012
415
0
0
edit for ^^^^ yeah others gained marketshare but total volume was DOWN 10%, so not good news.


Hey, Sony still plays this game -- my PS3 Metal Gear Solid edition (80GB back compat model) broke after **13 days** and I got a refurb'd one that was > 1.5 yrs old. Then the PSN hack. Go Sony!

I remember back in the day ordering a CRT from Acer. It arrived broken. I sent it back and they replaced with it a refurb.

Screw Acer.
 
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Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
17,484
33
86
yes i was reading an article in a similar vein just now

intel must be crazy thinking ultrabooks are due for mass adoption with haswell
Sadly for Intel, with the current economic situation, ultrabooks won't be good for mass adoption until they are typically <$600. But, that's kind of not Intel's thing. They want to push their higher-priced products. For all of the threat supposedly presented by ARM, having good enough cheaper computers is more of a threat to Intel.

I'm still using my C2D, waiting for Haswell. There have been a handful of games I've put off due to that (none multiplayer), and I've occasionally wished I could have more RAM, but that's about it. A new PC seems tempting while I use one, but then I consider the money involved, and figure I can wait a little longer. My notebook, OTOH, has a new lease on life, with an SSD.

Also, with current technology, I see no point in going with full ATX, even wanting some flexibility. I've yet to see a proper SFF offering that's been suitable, but MicroATX is a no-brainer. I'm sure SFFs will get better, over time, too (FI, if you get 4 USB 2.0 for expansion, and 1 video output, it's going to have a shorter life than a cheap ATX PC, or AIO with an expansion slot or two...screw that!). If they'd cut fewer corners on ports and peripheral options, teeny SFFs could be great options for many users.

Why don't you think that win8 is worth that extra 5~10 mins of your time ?
Because I can spend that 5-10 minutes once with Windows 7 or a good Linux distro, rather than it being 5-10 min/wk or 5-10 min/day. The choice of the word, "overlay," for Modern UI is very apt, as in not integrated.

They can always downgrade to win7 you know !
You apparently don't know. They can't downgrade, unless they spent extra for Pro. Then, they'll have to get a Win 7 disc, and call MS for the activation. It's only really an option for people that want Windows 7, but are stuck buying through a contracted vendor, or who want a specific proprietary computer.

The number one factor is time & money, then there is this small thing that's performance hit cause opengl still lags directx on that front & by a wide margin last I checked !
When was that? nV gimped OpenGL in Windows on newer drivers for Fermi Geforce hardware, and probably Kepler, now (they've been facing the, "problem," of gaming cards being used for content creation, you see...), and that's pretty much been it, TMK. OpenGL as a standard lags behind, but performance should be, and generally has been, similar, with equal support (like from AMD, or on Linux).

Can we name and count the killer apps that drove pc sales? I can start with Winamp and Crysis, i'm pretty sure there are more involving "eras" in pc evolution from the 90's, Napster was one.
Visicalc :)

Doom

IE & Netscape, after the web became the web (many people didn't have enough RAM, couldn't use a new modem, etc. etc.).

Mechwarrior 2

Quake

Starcraft (this is back in the day, OK?)

Quake 2/Unreal

Dragon (very few people kept with it, I know, but you could get practically real-time dictation with a P3/Athlon ~1GHz, and that was an amazing gimmick for most non-gamers I knew, at the time)

Flash programs, and software build with RAD bloatware

"Web 2.0"

Havok (HL2 was the flag-bearer)

Crysis (seriously...it was a good game, but we all had to get it as a tech demo, too)

Lately, BF3, though I am consistently puzzled by that, myself.

Conversely people don't upgrade their hardware just for the "latest OS", ask yourself this ~ when was the last time you upgraded your PC for the latest MS offerings ?
NT 4 Workstation. 95 was just too unreliable.

It's always been for an application, aside from that one case, and the new OS had to come along for the ride, for either newer APIs, newer hardware support, or both (FI, now you need WDDM--can't have DX10+ w/o it--and soon you'll need WDDM and x86-64).

For businesses, Win2k w/ AD was the last time any of them actually considered upgrading for core OS features. It's typically the secondary benefits of a new OS that matter, beyond applications. Having an old MS OS comes with its problems, including security, so upgrading 7 either has been done, or is in the pipe, today (yes, some businesses are basically going to be transitioning right until security updates stop coming). But then, they aren't upgrading the hardware, either. The two may happen around the same time, but the PCs are generally configured and bought entirely separate from OS concerns (buy, wipe, load most recent image, give it a new SID, and send it to its cube).

Wintel is on the verge of cracking at the seems.
Wintel has been practically dead for years, now. Both companies have enough inertia, though, that they can benefit quickly enough for shareholders when they do things really well, but customers are stuck with long durations for migrating away from something, so it often takes several years for their bad decisions to bite them hard.

You can't go from .NET(or C++ w/ COM)+SQL Server+AD security to pure application-level security, with a cross-platform app, in a year, though you might be able to develop your first version inside the Windows stack, in that time frame. But, today, it's already very common to not make your programs deeply rely on MS' tech, for just that reason. FI, create an application with its own sound security, then bypass the login stage with a domain user check, if they're connecting on the domain. Doing that, or making your DB easy to port to MySQL or PostgreSQL, or making your app Mono-compatible, or doing it a portable language, etc., etc., are all much easier to do at the start, than later, and has become fairly common. Windows could still be easier for your whole business, but you only end up minimally locked in. When they negatively change server licensing, you can then fire up a CentOS dev box, and get to porting, if you planned accordingly (awfully common). Likewise, adding support for inherently insecure non-Windows devices would be easier, too, since you could implement just about any software security layer on top of what you have, internally, as long as you didn't design it just against your domain.

Windows or x86 lock-in is just one of many trade-offs, today, and not one that anyone in a business that needs customers to be happy with their services takes lightly, anymore. But, the existing software bases keep dragging people along, as long as they can. If you've gone to build anything new within the last 5 years, or maybe longer, and it wasn't a PC game, Wintel either has been dead to you, or you will wish you had taken the advice to treat it that way.

x86 matters as much as it does today, FI, because Intel and AMD have done a better job at providing overall value than have cheap SoC implementers, and have, by and large, created much more open HW platforms. Long-term, hardware is getting cheaper, and SoC vendors are gradually starting to get with the program (IE, you can let end-users have documents, or can be told to f*** off, when Linux isn't working well enough on your hardware--we have some middle grounds, for now, but the end-game is for everyone to have similar openness to what we've become accustomed to on x86).
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
1
0
The people here who are downplaying the issues with the Windows 8 UI are probably used to dealing with hobbyists and other techies, and have not spent a lot of time working with "regular people" using PCs.

The user interface is a big deal. In fact, if anything it is the deal. Small things that you and I can quickly work around leave a lot of people throwing up their arms in exasperation. The "quick fix" or third-party app you can find on the net in 30 seconds, these people wouldn't find if they were on it all day. It's not because they are stupid. It's because technology is not "their thing". They don't want to have to learn how to find some new "shell" for Windows. To them, a shell is something you find on a beach.

People do not like change. They will tolerate it if they can be convinced that there is some benefit to them. They will not tolerate having to learn whole new ways of doing things, especially new ways that are less efficient, just because a bunch of pompous executives in corner offices in Redmond, Washington, decided that they were going to "move the industry forward" by insisting that they knew better than millions of their users what those users liked.

Windows 8 is the single biggest display of corporate pomposity and contempt for customers since.. having a hard time even thinking of anything this incredibly obnoxious. Maybe when Intel tried to ram Rambus down our throats in the late 90s.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,587
10,225
126
the user interface is a big deal. In fact, if anything it is the deal. Small things that you and i can quickly work around leave a lot of people throwing up their arms in exasperation.

They will not tolerate having to learn whole new ways of doing things, especially new ways that are less efficient, just because a bunch of pompous executives in corner offices in redmond, washington, decided that they were going to "move the industry forward" by insisting that they knew better than millions of their users what those users liked.

Windows 8 is the single biggest display of corporate pomposity and contempt for customers since.. Having a hard time even thinking of anything this incredibly obnoxious. Maybe when intel tried to ram rambus down our throats in the late 90s.
truth!!!!
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
126
The people here who are downplaying the issues with the Windows 8 UI are probably used to dealing with hobbyists and other techies, and have not spent a lot of time working with "regular people" using PCs.

The user interface is a big deal. In fact, if anything it is the deal. Small things that you and I can quickly work around leave a lot of people throwing up their arms in exasperation. The "quick fix" or third-party app you can find on the net in 30 seconds, these people wouldn't find if they were on it all day. It's not because they are stupid. It's because technology is not "their thing". They don't want to have to learn how to find some new "shell" for Windows. To them, a shell is something you find on a beach.

People do not like change. They will tolerate it if they can be convinced that there is some benefit to them. They will not tolerate having to learn whole new ways of doing things, especially new ways that are less efficient, just because a bunch of pompous executives in corner offices in Redmond, Washington, decided that they were going to "move the industry forward" by insisting that they knew better than millions of their users what those users liked.

Windows 8 is the single biggest display of corporate pomposity and contempt for customers since.. having a hard time even thinking of anything this incredibly obnoxious. Maybe when Intel tried to ram Rambus down our throats in the late 90s.

Since the ribbon interface in MS Office???? I still hate it.
 

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
MS does not know how to deal with change. If they've ever run a website, they'll know that users do not like change! You implement change by slowly evolving your UI, not by doing something drastic.