PC Sales down 14% in first quarter YoY

[lagokc]

Exactly.

The days of people buying a new PC because they feel they need to to stay current are long gone. If you have a PC now, unless it breaks it is the last computer most people will ever need to buy. The trend towards tablet and other small form factor devices is really quite unbelievable, but people don't want to mess with a PC, they just want their hardware to work. Get device, buy a few apps, it does what they want with almost no effort or knowledge. Device gets outdated or broken they get another one.

The future is much more about software infrastructure and the "easy click" experience as much as it is about the hardware.

It's worse than that even. Up until the A64 days if you were buying a new computer you'd want to get the fastest CPU you could reasonably afford because you knew it would last longer and give you a more enjoyable experience. Today, what percentage of consumers would even notice if you swapped their 2.6GHz Celeron G1610 with an i7-3770? 3% of people? Fewer?

 

[grimpr]

SSDs which prolong actual product life and negate cpu/ram upgrades, the subtle but killer "good enough" cpu performance going back to Core 2 Duo and the boredom with no killer apps for the classical windows desktop is the catalyst for low pc sales.

 

[lagokc]

SSDs which prolong actual product life and negate cpu/ram upgrades, the subtle but killer "good enough" cpu performance going back to Core 2 Duo and the boredom with no killer apps for the classical windows desktop is the catalyst for low pc sales.

That's actually a reallly good point. The vast majority of the time I've seen someone with a 'slow' computer that they wanted to replace it wasn't because of the CPU or memory, it was because the poor fragmented harddrive was clicking away. With SSDs this is no longer an issue.

 

[Idontcare]

Win 7 still selling, the OS(win 8) is not that much responsible for the decline of PC sales.

Very astute observation and point, AtenRa. Win8 may be uninspiring but that doesn't mean Win7 isn't still available.

I still get Newegg email deals for Win7, so it hasn't even faded off the radar as far as the DIY segment is concerned either.

Everyone I know in real life, friends/family/colleagues, aren't buying PCs (desktops or laptops) because their current ones are good enough. They have disposable income though and they like their toys. They all have iPads and Kindle Fires now, and they are all gearing up to throw their money at smartphones next.

I blame SSDs. Once the annoying delays and halts with routine desktop activities went away, faster processors just don't help with the active-idle performance. Who needs a faster CPU if your current one spends 98% of its life idling? SSDs make the active-idle performance great, no need to upgrade for many people if they already got SSD.

edit: LOL, lagokc beat me to it!

 

[BrightCandle]

I suspect this has far more to do with Europe's financial explosions and the fact that much of Europe has been in recession on and off for the last 5 years (ie a Depression) than it does to do with anything any of these companies are doing.

The economy is in a complete mess, and computers are luxary goods. With taxes climbing at frightening speeds, governments taking 10% of peoples savings as a one off tax, governments nearly going under and countries debts becoming junk its no wonder that citizens aren't feeling flush with cash.

I doubt the reduction in sales world wide of PCs has much to do with anything tech related, its the economic cycle and the great depression of the 21st century taking its toll.

 

[greenhawk]

Corporate users may resist win 8 because they don't want to retrain their users, but if you really need a PC, I cant see not buying one because of win 8.

For laptops, if you have a touch screen, it seems like a major improvement.

Corporate is doing more than that at my work, we still use windows xp on the desktop.

As to the second part, that is the problem, adding a touch screen to laptops is not really being done at the cheaper end of the market (sub $1000). So the one part needed for windows 8 to be considered when buying a new pc is not being added to the system, and it is far from something that can be added later once the buyer realises it is best to have it.

All of the PC makers just need to include a touch screen 120Hz IPS LED LCD monitor with every new Windows 8 PC sale and the sales will pick right up.

possibly, but given the price difference betweeen a small basic monitor (looking at rrp, wholesale would be cheaper), then replacing a $130 monitor in a sub $500 system with a monitor worth $500 odd, will more than double the cost of the "basic" entry system. Just not going to happen at the lower price points.

 

[R0H1T]

I suspect this has far more to do with Europe's financial explosions and the fact that much of Europe has been in recession on and off for the last 5 years (ie a Depression) than it does to do with anything any of these companies are doing.

The economy is in a complete mess, and computers are luxary goods. With taxes climbing at frightening speeds, governments taking 10% of peoples savings as a one off tax, governments nearly going under and countries debts becoming junk its no wonder that citizens aren't feeling flush with cash.

I doubt the reduction in sales world wide of PCs has much to do with anything tech related, its the economic cycle and the great depression of the 21st century taking its toll.

This is grossly inaccurate, you see the single largest market for tech & related products is now in ASIA & people here don't care about gaming rigs & stuff cause they'd have a galaxy S4 rather than the latest haswell. The situation is pretty much similar around the world & has been like this for atleast the last two years or so, now throw in a tablet boom & your notebook shipments take a nosedive ! It'd be easier if you accept the reality that the traditional PC days are over, not that the x86 platform will die but still, & this segment will continue to shrink until we see a brand new wave of semiconductors(like graphene) that perform at a much higher level than the current Si chips :awe:

 

[mikeymikec]

Very astute observation and point, AtenRa. Win8 may be uninspiring but that doesn't mean Win7 isn't still available.

I still get Newegg email deals for Win7, so it hasn't even faded off the radar as far as the DIY segment is concerned either.

Yes, Win7 is still available, but try going to a big-name OEM like the average person almost always does, and you'll encounter "$OEMNAME$ recommends Windows 8", and all of their products only offer Win8 as the OS. If not all, then 90%+ (and probably none of the alternatives will be cheap).

Someone else raised a silly point (and not for the first time on these forums) saying "you don't have to put up with Windows 8's Start screen, you can install a third party app to give you the Start menu back!", yes, and how many average people are in the habit of doing that? If the average person starts up their Win8 PC for the first time and thinks "WTF?" and even thinks about taking it back to the shop, that's a failure on MS's part. And every person who tells another person about their negative feelings about Windows 8 helps fuel a prejudicial reaction.

The average person does not want to look high and low for a PC that works as they expect it to, nor do they want to pay through the nose for it.

I build desktop PCs as part of my business. Oddly enough, I've sold almost as many builds in 2013 as I did in the whole of 2012. Windows 7 all the way of course, I haven't had a single customer want Win8. Admittedly PC building isn't a core part of my business and I am a sole trader so we're not talking large amounts of builds, but I think most people would expect the desktop PC segment to be in a steady and slow decline. Most people want laptops, even if they sit them at the same desk connected to the mains 24/7.

I wonder if another news piece comes along before "Windows Blue" is released whether Microsoft will do a U-turn. It wouldn't have hurt them in the slightest to have offered the Win7 start menu on Windows 8 as an option to begin with, even if the Start screen was the default. I'm not suggesting that the Start screen is solely responsible for the 14% drop, but I bet it hasn't helped. Don't force change on your customers unless you absolutely have to, and I would challenge any notion a software company has to force a UI change. People who feel that they are being forced to do something they don't feel is necessary don't tend to think fondly about it.

The desktop/laptop market probably isn't far off saturation point (unless third world countries suddenly become first world ones), and the global recession can't be helping much either, but a 14% drop is a heck of a lot.

 

[R0H1T]

Yes, Win7 is still available, but try going to a big-name OEM like the average person almost always does, and you'll encounter "$OEMNAME$ recommends Windows 8", and all of their products only offer Win8 as the OS. If not all, then 90%+ (and probably none of the alternatives will be cheap).

Someone else raised a silly point (and not for the first time on these forums) saying "you don't have to put up with Windows 8's Start screen, you can install a third party app to give you the Start menu back!", yes, and how many average people are in the habit of doing that? If the average person starts up their Win8 PC for the first time and thinks "WTF?" and even thinks about taking it back to the shop, that's a failure on MS's part. And every person who tells another person about their negative feelings about Windows 8 helps fuel a prejudicial reaction.

The average person does not want to look high and low for a PC that works as they expect it to, nor do they want to pay through the nose for it.

I build desktop PCs as part of my business. Oddly enough, I've sold almost as many builds in 2013 as I did in the whole of 2012. Windows 7 all the way of course, I haven't had a single customer want Win8.

They can always downgrade to win7 you know !

I wonder if another news piece comes along before "Windows Blue" is released whether Microsoft will do a U-turn. It wouldn't have hurt them in the slightest to have offered the Win7 start menu on Windows 8 as an option to begin with, even if the Start screen was the default. I'm not suggesting that the Start screen is solely responsible for the 14% drop, but I bet it hasn't helped. Don't force change on your customers unless you absolutely have to, and I would challenge any notion a software company has to force a UI change. People who feel that they are being forced to do something they don't feel is necessary don't tend to think fondly about it.

The desktop/laptop market probably isn't far off saturation point (unless third world countries suddenly become first world ones), and the global recession can't be helping much either, but a 14% drop is a heck of a lot.

I've been trying out win Blue pre beta(builds 9364/9369) & I can tell you that MS ain't backtracking on this one unless there's some serious backlash from large enterprises !

 

[lagokc]

Very astute observation and point, AtenRa. Win8 may be uninspiring but that doesn't mean Win7 isn't still available.

I still get Newegg email deals for Win7, so it hasn't even faded off the radar as far as the DIY segment is concerned either.

Everyone I know in real life, friends/family/colleagues, aren't buying PCs (desktops or laptops) because their current ones are good enough. They have disposable income though and they like their toys. They all have iPads and Kindle Fires now, and they are all gearing up to throw their money at smartphones next.

I blame SSDs. Once the annoying delays and halts with routine desktop activities went away, faster processors just don't help with the active-idle performance. Who needs a faster CPU if your current one spends 98% of its life idling? SSDs make the active-idle performance great, no need to upgrade for many people if they already got SSD.

edit: LOL, lagokc beat me to it!

There is one huge problem with that theory though - while pretty much all the enthusiasts here love SSDs, big computer manufacturers like Dell are still trying to sell HDDs and only sell SSDs as a heavily marked up optional item (often worse than they treat decent standalone GPUs). What percentage of end users actually have an SSD at this point?

It seems like it's more likely it's a combination of SATA HDDs actually getting a lot better than they were in the PATA days and OSes being a big better at not creating as much fragmentation.

 

[grimpr]

I've been trying out win Blue pre beta(builds 9364/9369) & I can tell you that MS ain't backtracking on this one unless there's some serious backlash from large enterprises !

Well, good to know from you and i may say expected from MS since they are so desperate to copy Apple. Time to accelerate the transitioning to Linux i suppose.

 

[R0H1T]

Well, good to know from you and i may say expected from MS since they are so desperate to copy Apple. Time to accelerate the transitioning to Linux i suppose.

Well then I guess you'd be saying goodbye to some of those upcoming DX11 titles as well ?

 

[Imouto]

Well then I guess you'd be saying goodbye to some of those upcoming DX11 titles as well ?

Valve is porting their games to OpenGL, dunno why other companies can't do the same.

 

[Idontcare]

There is one huge problem with that theory though - while pretty much all the enthusiasts here love SSDs, big computer manufacturers like Dell are still trying to sell HDDs and only sell SSDs as a heavily marked up optional item (often worse than they treat decent standalone GPUs). What percentage of end users actually have an SSD at this point?

It seems like it's more likely it's a combination of SATA HDDs actually getting a lot better than they were in the PATA days and OSes being a big better at not creating as much fragmentation.

Sorry, I see what I did there and I failed to press a specific point - I was referring only to the people I know in real life. I don't know a single person (as in first-person, friends/family/colleagues) who doesn't have an SSD. Those upgrades were long ago mined out as recommendations for anyone and everyone I knew.

My point was just in relating to what I observe as the same group of people who's buying trends took a marked change, across the board and across many demographics (professionals, grandma, aunts, kids, etc), that they just suddenly stopped being interested in spending their $800 electronics budget on laptops and desktops. It is all tablets, smartphones, and console game boxes.

My brother who is the consummate gamer in the family decided last year he was done with PCs. Sold his PC and just plays on XBOX/PS now, exclusively.

It is shocking from my perspective, just how so many people around me shifted their buying habits nearly simultaneously. I blame that on SSDs and the fact their CPU's from 2-3yrs ago were already overkill, but that is just an opinion and might well not be a very good one (demographics analyses is not my strong suit )

 

[PhIlLy ChEeSe]

Everyone I know in real life, friends/family/colleagues, aren't buying PCs (desktops or laptops) because their current ones are good enough. They have disposable income though and they like their toys. They all have iPads and Kindle Fires now, and they are all gearing up to throw their money at smartphones next.

This is why+1

 

[R0H1T]

Valve is porting their games to OpenGL, dunno why other companies can't do the same.

The number one factor is time & money, then there is this small thing that's performance hit cause opengl still lags directx on that front & by a wide margin last I checked ! I'd like to know though if wine supports DX11 & what is the avg performance hit say compared to bootcamping windows on a Mac?

 

[Dribble]

I think there are a number of reasons:
1) Due the worlds various financial crisis's businesses and individuals hoarding cash not investing in new hardware.
2) PC's aren't fashionable - spare cash goes on the latest phone/tablet not laptop/desktop.
3) PC hardware is moving forward much more slowly so no need to upgrade. Cpu side Intel are concentrating on mobile which means lower power usage not higher performance. On gpu side nvidia is focusing on tegra/telsa and AMD on console gpu's so refreshing more slowly.
4) On the software side it's actually getting easier to run it as the emphasis is on low powered devices with weak cpu's so software is being made that works on these devices. e.g. websites were including more and more flash which was very cpu intensive but now that's all died off as these days they have to work fine on some single cored 1ghz smart phone.
5) I don't think windows 8 is a major problem causing people not to buy but it certainly hasn't encouraged people now is the time to get a new pc.

 

[grimpr]

Here's Charlies "told ya so" opinion on the disaster.

IDC shows Windows 8 is actively destroying PC sales
Just like we told you would happen, just a bit worse
Apr 11, 2013 by Charlie Demerjian

http://semiaccurate.com/2013/04/11/idc-shows-windows-8-is-actively-destroying-pc-sales/

 

[Idontcare]

5) I don't think windows 8 is a major problem causing people not to buy but it certainly hasn't encouraged people now is the time to get a new pc.

Which is microsoft's #1 problem, the OS is not a "killer app". People aren't about to upgrade their hardware just to get the latest OS.

People are only going to upgrade hardware if their existing hardware stops working or if it is not capable of handling the performance requirements of a new killer app.

There are no new killer apps, MS was hoping Win8 would be "it" as if they could pull another Win95 but of course it didn't pan out.

Mobility is the new killer app. Get me mobile and a portable form-factor, that is something people are interested in buying now. And MS and Intel know it, hence the crisis dash to get into smartphones and tablets.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Sorry, I see what I did there and I failed to press a specific point - I was referring only to the people I know in real life. I don't know a single person (as in first-person, friends/family/colleagues) who doesn't have an SSD. Those upgrades were long ago mined out as recommendations for anyone and everyone I knew.

My point was just in relating to what I observe as the same group of people who's buying trends took a marked change, across the board and across many demographics (professionals, grandma, aunts, kids, etc), that they just suddenly stopped being interested in spending their $800 electronics budget on laptops and desktops. It is all tablets, smartphones, and console game boxes.

My brother who is the consummate gamer in the family decided last year he was done with PCs. Sold his PC and just plays on XBOX/PS now, exclusively.

It is shocking from my perspective, just how so many people around me shifted their buying habits nearly simultaneously. I blame that on SSDs and the fact their CPU's from 2-3yrs ago were already overkill, but that is just an opinion and might well not be a very good one (demographics analyses is not my strong suit )

I agree the most important reason PC sales are slow is that even several year old PC's are good enough. I have to disagree about ssds though. Your family/friends have undoubtedly benefited from your technical expertise. I would think that the vast majority of mainstream users don't even know about the benefits of an ssd, much less have the ability to install one and migrate the os to it. Plus if you go into a big box store like best buy or office Max, or even microcenter, very few ssd equipped machines are available.

Perhaps if the PC industry made ssds more available at reasonable cost, it would stimulate sales.

Btw, I an talking about desktops here and normal laptops. Granted ultrabooks have some sort of ssd.

 

[grimpr]

Which is microsoft's #1 problem, the OS is not a "killer app". People aren't about to upgrade their hardware just to get the latest OS.

People are only going to upgrade hardware if their existing hardware stops working or if it is not capable of handling the performance requirements of a new killer app.

There are no new killer apps, MS was hoping Win8 would be "it" as if they could pull another Win95 but of course it didn't pan out.

Mobility is the new killer app. Get me mobile and a portable form-factor, that is something people are interested in buying now. And MS and Intel know it, hence the crisis dash to get into smartphones and tablets.

This, and new toys to play with. Android has all the essentials that had made Windows dominant, free to use & copy/modify, vast ecosystem of apps and very hackable & customizable, all the ingredients that XP had with themes, cursors,backgrounds, free apps, custom black editions with pirated software and a healthy warez/pirate software scene.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I think that while all of these issues are relevant to some extent, the real underlying issue is that the PC market is in a lull waiting for the next "killer app" to drive technology forward.

There simply is nothing new and compelling enough to motivate people to upgrade to new technology right now. A lot of folks think that this is a permanent state of affairs and that the PC world will now just stagnate, but I think that's unlikely. It may be several years, but something will change, some new idea for how to use PCs will take hold, and performance will start to matter again.

 

[grimpr]

I think that while all of these issues are relevant to some extent, the real underlying issue is that the PC market is in a lull waiting for the next "killer app" to drive technology forward.

There simply is nothing new and compelling enough to motivate people to upgrade to new technology right now. A lot of folks think that this is a permanent state of affairs and that the PC world will now just stagnate, but I think that's unlikely. It may be several years, but something will change, some new idea for how to use PCs will take hold, and performance will start to matter again.

Can we name and count the killer apps that drove pc sales? I can start with Winamp and Crysis, i'm pretty sure there are more involving "eras" in pc evolution from the 90's, Napster was one.

 

[StrangerGuy]

It's worse than that even. Up until the A64 days if you were buying a new computer you'd want to get the fastest CPU you could reasonably afford because you knew it would last longer and give you a more enjoyable experience. Today, what percentage of consumers would even notice if you swapped their 2.6GHz Celeron G1610 with an i7-3770? 3% of people? Fewer?

You can even change that Celeron to a 6-year old E6300 and the same users would maybe find webpages load a little faster, but is that worth buying a new IB PC compared to a shiny new iPad they can wave at their coworkers and friends with? Nope.

 

[R0H1T]

Here's Charlies "told ya so" opinion on the disaster.

IDC shows Windows 8 is actively destroying PC sales
Just like we told you would happen, just a bit worse
Apr 11, 2013 by Charlie Demerjian

Conversely people don't upgrade their hardware just for the "latest OS", ask yourself this ~ when was the last time you upgraded your PC for the latest MS offerings ? The answer of course is vista, then again it was indeed taxing for the hardware available at that time not to mention it flopped more due to driver issues, but win8 is lighter than win7 on any hardware so its more of a disincentive(for enthusiasts) not to go from IVB to haswell !
The OS itself is the last thing you consider while upgrading, the performance jump you get from tick-tock is more of an issue & you know who flopped there, so stop blaming MS cause Intel's equally at fault(if not way more) than MS in this so called post PC era !

Which is microsoft's #1 problem, the OS is not a "killer app". People aren't about to upgrade their hardware just to get the latest OS.